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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    We are not going to have a chance at the first two players. I had Mathis on my list as a second round pick. I can't see him lasting beyond that although it is a 1st base profile so maybe he goes third round. At any rate he has lot's of traits I like and that the Twins like so depending on who is left I could see the Twins taking him. Burke is interesting,. I have to believe he fits well with what the Twins seem to like in hitters. I don't love power over hit players, but if he can control the strike zone he looks like an awesome get in the second or third round. I know Jared Thomas is 1B\OF, but I love the athleticism he would bring to first base and he could also play in the outfield if needed. Probably gone before pick 60 and likely too early to grab at 33, but I would pick him over the other two if he was still there. He doesn't have the power of the other two guys mentioned in that range, but his hit tool is rated higher and he runs better than both of them. I also think he could tap into more power. FWIW I don't look much past the top 50 maybe top 100 when looking at these guys so don't know much about the other players mentioned.
  2. Dman
    His Slugging% is currently slightly higher than his 2021-2023 numbers at .445. That is a good slugging percentage, but not a great one. For a bat only guy it really should be in the 500 range or higher at these levels. He has work to do and making more contact (fewer K's) would go a long way toward helping him. His K rate is currently down from last year as well so he is working on it. Still like I said for a bat only player he needs to be elite and right now is just OK. Other than when he was in high A for 22 games this is the highest his OPS has been at any level (AA .837). Still a lot of season left for things to go either direction, but given his recent week of success have to believe his confidence is up. I hope this is the start of a major resurgence, but it could just be a little hot streak and then back to reality.
  3. Dman
    Yeah I agree. Those teams weren't afraid of the short term results which is why they offered the money to begin with. Once they got the medicals and talked to experts a 10 year deal looked like a bad bet. The Mets offered a modified deal so its not like they were totally out. Correa liked the Twins deal the best and here we are. Still a long ways to go for those teams to be jealous or second guess their decisions. We'll see how he looks five years out and beyond. Even then can't fault those teams for mitigating the known risk that was there.
  4. Dman
    With all the Walks I had Nowlin as a reliever. I guess the Zebby Matthews affect is real. Someone in the system always throwing a Zebby type game with no walks and just a few hits. If he can keep this up he is a starter. Before I am a believer I need to see him keep the walks down a few more games though. I was about to write Baez and his bat off and then he goes out and starts hitting home runs. Maybe this is just a hot streak and while his power looks real have to wait and see of he can keep making contact. Still nice to see him having some success with the bat. Sabato 3 for 4 with another home run. Three games in a row with a Home run. He looks dialed in at the plate right now. Maybe he has figured some things out? Hard to say, but it sure is fun to say nice things about the guy. Wallner another game another home run. He is starting to make me look foolish for doubting. Still want to see him do this against another team before I am on board though. A good night for wins except Fort Myers. Things are looking up for the affiliates.
  5. Dman
    Gotta say that 4 for 4 night from Wallner was impressive. Good at bats all night long for him. Still not sure I trust him at the MLB level but the pitcher was dealing and no one else on the team could get a hit so he must be doing something right. He keeps this up and he is gonna earn his way back. Bengard has been good all year. Have to believe they move him up once the first half is over. Granted there are a fair number of arms at high A right now, but his numbers scream I am too good for this level. I know Rixen WIngrove isn't a prospect per say, but I was wondering why they had him on the team with all the strikeouts and weak contact he was producing. The last few days I think I am seeing what the Twins saw, When he connects the ball is going a long way. Doesn't look particularly athletic, but he sure adds some needed juice that lineup. Great to see all four affiliates with wins and good performances. Hope they keep it up.
  6. Dman
    Seth would be the best one to answer this but A) it is not restricted to Dominican players as I believe there have been Venezuelan and Cuban players on those teams. B) If I understand correctly the main reason there are so many Dominican players is most teams have academies there where they train and watch players from a very young age and recruitment begins at age 14 I believe. C) It is open to anyone I believe but seems fairly unique in that most other players don't necessarily sign at 16 except the Dominican and Venezuelan players. Cuban and Asian players generally seem to be 18 or older, but Kepler signed from Germany at 16 as did some Ausies. Personally I wish they had an international draft and that they had wait until 18 to sign, but it is what it is right now.
  7. Dman
    I'll give you Cavaco. I don't think he will make enough contact to be a good hitter. His K rate last year was 40% and it is 43% so far this year in his second stint at high A. He isn't getting better. It's pretty obvious he is cooked at this point. He just doesn't have good contact skills and it doesn't look like he is going to develop them. I'd say they should cut him, but unless they move Eeles up they don't have anyone that much better to replace him. I was never a Sabato believer, but at least he can make contact and knows the zone. I don't know that what he has is enough to make it to MLB, but he is producing so I am willing to see if something pops for him. He has plenty of power, but there is enough swing and miss to make it not matter. I'd give Sabato more time.
  8. Dman
    Yeah the future at second is Lee with Julien as a backup there. Not because they are necessarily better than Keaschall at 2nd but Keaschall has the speed to play in the outfield and they don't. Also center doesn't necessarily require an elite arm though it is nice to have. I think his best path to the majors is center or left given all the infield talent the Twins currently have. So I wouldn't be surprised to see him out there more.
  9. Dman
    Festa was dealing and he reminds me a little of Bieber in that guys at the plate can't tell what's coming Is it his fastball or slider that drops off just before hitting the plate. Lot's of swings and misses all night for him. Still when they did guess right they could hit his fastball hard. HIs one blemish on the night was getting behind 3-0 and putting a fastball down the middle. I assume he expected the batter to take and he promptly sent it out for a HR. Other than that he was in complete control the whole time he was in there and racking up the K's. If he has his control under control I have to believe he will get his chance this year. Morris with a Zebby night. Absolute domination giving up just two hits, no walks and no runs over his 5 innings. That is ridiculously good. I generally ding Morris because he gives up a fair amount of hits but not last night. It is a pretty tight race Between him and Matthews for best arm at AA. They have both been really, really good so far this year. Raya pitched well too. Better control this time out and it showed. Hoping this is the start of better consistency for him. That whole ST Paul lineup has been hitting the snot out of the ball. Not sure what got into them, but they have been fun to watch,
  10. Dman
    Boy that was a tough start, but a great finish! Nice to see clutch Max back.
  11. Dman
    Bazana is an absolute beast. He is the perfect Cleveland hitter. Gonna hate facing him when he goes against the Twins. There's a chance Moore could be there when the Twins pick, but with all the second base types in the system not sure he would be my first pick there, but depending on what is left at 21 I wouldn't mind if they picked Moore. He seems like the type of player the Twins would go after. He can hit for average and has good power. The chase issue does concern me some, but given the numbers not that much. I'm just not that high on 2nd basemen given we have so many as it is. Would prefer they go up the middle with their higher picks.
  12. Dman
    TBH it seemed a little early to have a second round pick in the top 100 with not even one full pro year yet. However, it sure looks like BA is going to be right. AA is no easy jump Schobel, Cardenas, Cossetti, Ross and Ortega have all bottomed out there. With Ross the worst qualified hitter in the Texas league in OPS and Ortega not far behind. Still a lot of season left, but the way Keaschall makes contact appears to be special. Will have to wait and see though.
  13. Dman
    Just want to say these video reviews are amazing and spot on IMO. Where do you find these outside of Twins Daily? Adam really knows what's what in the prospect world.
  14. Dman
    Keaschall is sure making Baseball America look like they know more than other sites by having him in their top 100. After his 4 for 5 night he has his OPS in AA up to .900 again. Pitchers don't like to see him in the box, If they can get Rodriguez back healthy that AA lineup could be trouble. Schulfer always seemed close, but not quite good enough. Would take some big change for him to make it somewhere else, but he is pretty much buried in this system so I can see why they let him go and good for him to catch on somewhere else. That elusive some nasty pitch is out there. Hope he finds it.
  15. Dman
    Speaking of Blewett he has pitched really well this year so far. 2,41 ERA 36 K's in 32 IP, 1.07 WHIP. Those are really good numbers.
  16. Dman
    I haven't been kind to Correa since the signing, but he has been amazing this past week and generally most of the year at the plate. If he had enough at bats to qualify he would have a top 20 OPS in Baseball right now and I really enjoy his defensive play as well. The injury got the best of him last year, but he is playing great this year. Hope he keeps it up and the that Twins can lengthen the lineup to make it harder on opposing pitchers.
  17. Dman
    While I agree with many of the reasons above just to pile on here's a couple more. The reason they would only do one year deals this year is because next year is kind of a balloon year with Correa's biggest salary year and Pablo moving into the 20M range and while they don't have a ton of arb salaries for next year by 2026 they will have Ryan and Ober and others to deal with for Arb salaries. They also still have TV revenue uncertainty until that is settled they don't really know how far they can stretch things and will play it safe until that gets resolved. We are going to have to live with what we have and with players on the margins to fill gaps or trades involving up and coming talent with lower salaries .I don't see them adding another large contract anytime soon.
  18. Dman
    There is no pressure on Vasquez. The only way Camargo comes up would be as an injury replacement. Vasqy's defense is too valuable and they will just have to live with what he can give them offensively.
  19. Dman
    It sure seems like the lefty Rozak could be a good option out the pen. He has been a bit abused in long relief this year, but the guy must have a super strong arm or something because he is always ready for his turn. I think he started in AAA this year but was pretty bad there. However, his ERA and FIP look pretty darn good in AA. The K rate is down in AA this year but his ERA is 1.90. I don't know much about his stuff and whether it would play well at the MLB level, but he is dominating at the AA level so probably time to find out if he can handle AAA again or if this is his peak.
  20. Dman
    All I know is he is the best Twins shortstop we have had in a very long time. Happy to have a guy that can fill that hole for us.
  21. Dman
    Thanks so much for responding! I really appreciate you indulging me. OK one last post on this one. if they are all there and they could be is Caldwell still your choice? If both Honeycutt and Caldwell are there at 21 who are you picking? Would you pick Culpepper over Gillen? Would you do White over Gillen and Caldwell? I am just curious as there are so many players lumped into 19 to 33 that don't seem too far off from one another. It seems like tools would be the deciding factor, but contact rate and power are very important tools and can trump everything else. Just curious what your deciding factors would be.
  22. Dman
    Jamie, maybe you will be covering this in your show but While there is a top 10 or 11, after those picks it seems to be trending more college bats from 11 to about 17 with James Tibbs, Cam Smith, Seaver King, Carson Benge, Ryan Waldschmidt, and maybe Christian Moore. Tucked in there are two pitchers Trey Yesavage and Cam Caminiti that appear destined to go in the top 20. If any of those names fell to the Twins I would be fine with them grabbing a college bat. If things fall like they did above and the Twins still want to go college bat at 21 it leaves some names I don’t particularly like in Kaelen Culpepper, Tommy White, Vance Honeycutt, Dakota Jordan and Brody Brecht. Granted they all have some great tools but Culpepper Honeycut and Jordan all have trouble controlling the strike zone and or swing and miss issues. That type of player hasn’t worked out well for the Twins in the past. I get that Honeycut is probably Byron Buxton II in the field, but the 40 hit tool and K rate screams he’ll never make it to me. Jordon slightly better hit tool but still problematic IMO. Culpepper might not stick at short and appears to lack power. Not a Twins pick IMO and he is a very aggressive swinger likely to be exploited at the MLB level if not sooner. Possibly Delmon Young II at the plate. Tommy White has a good eye and great bat. He has exit velocities the Twins love and good bat to ball skills if I understand correctly. I like the bat, I really do but he looks like he is stuck at 1st base or DH. I just don’t love taking that type of hitter at 21 overall. Up the middle talent is so hard to come by it always goes early in the draft. White might be an OK pick but it would be nice to find a player with more positional upside and not have to bet on just the bat. If you think Brecht will ever discover some kind of control he would be a steal at 21. It sounds like he hasn’t been pitching long so maybe there is hope there, but guys with lack of control generally don’t find it later and if the great Wes Johnson couldn’t fix Anderson I don’t really want to risk Brecht at 21. Maybe 33 but not 21. What are your thoughts on Honeycut, Culpepper, Brecht, White and Jordon? Would they make sense at 21 for the Twins? There is going to be something good that drops to 21. I just hope they bet on the bat and not tools that may never come into play like Cavaco.
  23. Dman
    I'd be happy with that draft for the Twins. It feels like high school players are the way to go in more ways than one for me. First HS players get exposed to the pro game sooner and seem to develop faster. Second I think it makes sense for the Twins to build a second wave of talent so if it takes 4 or 5 years for those players to develop that timeline works out pretty well for when current players will leave via free agency. Third the infield is pretty full right now so it doesn't feel like they need a quick to the majors type player and most of the big college bats are in the infield. I really like Caldwell as a fit for the Twins and it is hard to say if he makes it all the way to 21, but if he does it feels like a perfect fit for the Twins to me. A future outfield of Caldwell, Jenkins and Rodriguez would be pretty dynamic IMO. If Janek fell all the way to 33 it would be hard for me to pass him up even for pitching help. It is so hard to find a good defensive catcher who can possibly hit and I think Janek could be one that can. With a plus arm and solid power I'd be willing to give up a little hit tool just for the added defense. I'd also consider Bazzell at 33. He appears to have an elite hit tool with an average to plus arm. Doesn't look like a power stroke, but possibly elite hit tool with possible good to very good defense seems like a good get at 33. If going prep bat I think Wyatt Sanford would be my pick at 33. Really good defense with a chance to hit. Not projected for much power so maybe not a Twinsy pick, but I like going hitter, hitter as the hitters fall off the table most likely by pick 60. I do like the Oakey pick and would be totally OK with that pick. 33 is a great spot to get your pick of some of the next tier HS arms. It would ensure you have the chance for a fairly fast moving elite arm and is a pick the Twins don't usually make. Having two first round picks means that they can even out the bats and arms and in most years with just one 1st round pick you have to choose bat or arm this way you can get both in the first round. Doing it that way they should get a good value bat at 21 and arm at 33. Bottom line I think the board could fall very close to what you have there. I still think Benge goes top 20, but there are so many mix and match guys it will be interesting to see where guys fall. I can't make up my mind about going bat, bat or bat arm. Will be interesting to see what the Twins do. Thanks for sharing your picks.
  24. Dman
    I think he will be. He already caught Baseball America's attention and is in their top 100. He is going to be top 10 in the Twins system. Probably just behind Festa or maybe in front since his control is so good.
  25. Dman
    Morris's numbers aren't that far off from Zebby's so I agree he looks like a future rotation piece as well. Morris seems to give up a bit more contact but his WHIP is still real good and the K rate while lower than Matthews is OK as well. He's been pretty lights at AA as well just not as many innings there yet. I don't know if I am as optimistic as you on Prielipp. Almost back to back TJ's doesn't bode well for durability. It would be awesome if he could become a star lefty starter though. I'm just keeping him out of of any future hope until he can put up some innings and stay healthy.
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