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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    It's nice to see him having some success, but he still seems like pretty much the same hitter with certain problem areas in his swing. While the K rate has come down a little it's not enough yet. I don't see him as a Rule V add with all the warts in the underlying numbers and his limited value as a 1st base\DH bat. The only Rule V players I have for next year are Festa and Raya as for sure adds and outside chance of Olivar and Kiersey. Although bats are hard to predict as they don't get taken that often. Also Lee looks like an early add. Everyone else would need to show a lot more in the second half to get added IMO. Sabato would not be on my list as I like Severino better in the 1st base DH spot as he is a switch hitter, runs better and has better contact skills. They can't have two of those types taking up 40 man space so if Sabato takes off they would need to trade one of them and my pick would be Sabato.
  2. Dman
    His best outing was April 13th. 4IP no hits, no runs, 1 walk and 7K's. That outing got me pretty excited about him. His issue seems to be control which makes sense for such a young arm. Nice to him have a good game and it looked like the change up was working for him again in this one. Gotta love an 18 year old at A ball with an 11.13 K/9. I am sure the Twins don't care about the ERA and more about developing pitches, but nice to see him with a good game. When he keeps the walks and hits down we'll know he is on his way up. Only two hits today but 3 walk in 4 innings is too many. His changeup has to be plus if not plus plus. He has good velocity with the fastball. It looks like he needs to work on controlling the slider and I think he is going to be very, very good. Maybe they work on a cutter as well as that seemed to help Matthews this year. At any rate this is likely a learning year and he is still doing very well.
  3. Dman
    Boushley with the Zebby today. No walks, 3 hits, no runs. With his pitch count he was in line to go all 9 but a long bottom on the 7th got him pulled. The announcers said likely since he is on the 40 man they wouldn't want to take any chances with his arm. Having already gone 7 it seemed like the pen could mail it in, but Brice couldn't find the strike zone and Wallner lost fly ball in left and things turned in a hurry. Boushley with really nice numbers at AAA this year so I can see why they put him on the 40 man, but a 90mph fastball makes it tough to see him as anything but an emergency arm. Still nice to have arms stashed away as you never know when you might need them and he has been consistently good this year. Severino goes 4 for 5 and while he had a miserable 2 months at the plate he has his numbers back to an .800 OPS on the year. It has taken a June line of .462 BA, .600 OBP and .788 SLG to get there for a 1.388 OPS, but that is just how hot he has been at the plate in June. His walk rate is at 15% for the year and the K rate still at 30%, but hopefully that will come down some. Will have to wait and see. Still it looks like Severino's bat is back. Hopefully for the rest of the season. Also Kudos to Jenkins on his Home Run. Nice to see the power is still there. Hopefully this kick starts the bat for him as well.
  4. Dman
    Man you know things are going good in the system when a 5 inning 1 hit, 1 walk, 6k night doesn't get you pitcher of the day. Bengard out Zebby'ed, Matthews with 6 innings of just 2 hits, no walks and 7 K's. Someone always throwing a no walk Zebby game almost every night these days. Would love to see Bengard with the Kernel's, but pitching seems in short supply at low A so maybe he will need to stay for a while. A couple of call outs. The Twins missed out on Matain in the Atlanta debacle and got Severino instead who is currently on the 40 man. Now they have both in the system. Matain has been an important bat for the Kernal's and while the underlying numbers aren't kind (High BABIP, 30% K rate, low walk rate) for a team in need of hitting he has been producing. Happy to see him having some success. Hoping he keeps it going and can make a move to AA. Rixon Wingrove is a big man and this is just my opinion and not meant to be mean but he doesn't really look like a baseball player to me. And yet he is killing it at low A right now. A .292BA, .403 OBP, .523 SLG for a .926 OPS in a league where the average OPS is in the 700's. His walk rate is 12% and K rate 22%. He just turned 24 in May so a little old for the level, but that is a really nice line for the big fella. They probably should move him up and yet Fort Myers needs all the hitters they can get especially after losing Eeles, but hopefully in time he will get his chance at High A to see if he can handle that level.
  5. Dman
    Festa is a really good pitcher as well and his K9 is better than Matthews and is elite. Honestly I think they are pretty close, but Matthews has been better in the control department and that is a make or break skill at the MLB level. Zebby should be ranked higher than Festa at this point and honestly most likely in line to be the next arm called up. While he only has 35 IP at AA, as others have noted he should be moved to AAA to see if he can help the MLB club down the road this season. You look at his AA numbers and there is nothing more he needs to prove there. Walk rate is extremely low. K rate 10 per 9. Home run suppression is great. Fastball is up to 98. FIP and xFIP agree with ERA. He has the skills in place to make the move to AAA and if he maintains his numbers there then MLB is the next step. Worst case scenario, even if he slows down at AAA it isn't going to hurt to see if he can make it there. He is mature enough as a person and pitcher for a quick move to AAA IMO. I hope they keep him moving.
  6. Dman
    He is off the 40 man, but will likely make it to St. Paul as I believed they guaranteed his salary. Other teams could claim him, but given his results this year and the cost it would be highly unlikely.
  7. Dman
    If he masters that right side he should be a monster bat having the platoon advantage all the time. I just hope he keeps swinging the bat well the next month or so to be certain it isn't just a hot streak. His ability to play all infield positions makes him a very flexible player which helps when moving guys around. If he is going to be good from both sides no reason to platoon him either. Lot's of things to like about Lee.
  8. Dman
    I'm a sucker for High School arms. I never met a High School arm I didn't like. So much to dream on and time to get there it makes you want to grab one early and often. Getting them to work out is another story though. Stewart, Gonsalves, Leech, Enlow, Balazovich, etc. All had great potential but little to no impact at the MLB level. High School arms are really tough to project. There are some really tempting arms in this class and if any of the arms mentioned here fell to 33 I could see the Twins grabbing one of them. Still I think taking bats with the first two picks seems most likely as the odds of them working out is generally better. And yet, I liked what they did last year with Soto and they have that extra pick so we'll see what they decide to do. I assume it would depend on what falls to them at 33.
  9. Dman
    I guess Lee really didn't care for the narrative that he can't hit from the right side. Taking two lefties deep is certainly a way to change perceptions. While it is just a few games this is the Brooks Lee we have been waiting to see. He is looking like another Lewis right now. We'll see how he holds up through the All Star break, but right now he sure looks healthy and ready to mash baseballs.
  10. Dman
    MacLeod came with the 2021 group that all got traded away. We can probably count Povich as as an org success (draft wise) as he is a starting pitcher with Baltimore now and Petty looks on track to be a good one as well. They just got traded away. I still see Nowlin as a reliever, but he really opened my eyes with that last start so he is slowly turning me. If he hits Wow what a group of arms at AA right now in Matthews, Morris, Lewis, Raya, Nowlin, Ohl and a resurgent but older Rozek. If most of that group pans out that is whole other starting 5 they would have and that doesn't include Festa. Still quite a ways to go, but nice to see that kind of talent this far up the system.
  11. Dman
    Things are starting to look better. Those arms still have to transition to MLB though. Festa is a top AAA arm and if he maintains that status while not walking so many guys he could be a top of the rotation pitcher. Kind of the same thing with Raya. He has plus pitches, but gets into long counts and walks too many and also has been giving up too many hits. A bit more refinement though and that looks like a very good arm. The four guys from the 2022 draft all seem to have very good control with Matthews the best of the bunch. Morris has hung right with him though and seems to be getting better and better. Lewis looking a little shaky coming back and pretty sure he will adjust, but AA is a tough level. Culpepper has been hurt and hasn't made it to AA but he has the stuff to get there if he can keep his arm healthy. That group might be the best class of arms they have ever drafted together and that is with Preilipp on the shelf who was supposed to be the best of the bunch. Their 2023 class is starting to show signs of life as well. Langenburg has moved up. Bengard has looked dominant at A ball and Hall is starting to come on strong with Santos looking like a potential high end reliever. It's still a long ways from A or AA to the Majors and arm health is paramount to getting there, but this is the most quality pitching depth I have seen in the system since the Varland, Balazovich, Canterino, Enlow, Ober days. Hopefully this group stays healthy and nets us a couple more good starters.
  12. Dman
    I looked into Jenkins numbers to see what I could see and it looks more like bad luck than anything else. K rate 14%. Walk rate 16%. He is being patient and he is hitting the ball but his BABIP is .226. I am not sure if most of that is weak contact or not, but I think his numbers just need time to shake out. Doesn't appear to be an approach problem that I can see. Maybe someone else can take a deeper dive into what kind of contact he is generating.
  13. Dman
    Lee has been good at AAA in his brief time there. He is off to that .900 OPS we all like to see to prove he can dominate the last level before being called up, but I think it is going to be at least another month before we see him. First they'll want to give him some time to prove the injury is behind him. They will also want to make sure he can sustain these numbers. And finally they need to find a 40 man spot for him and I don't see them moving on from Farmer as he hits lefties better than Lee. Maybe at the trade deadline they can make moves to clear some space, but I think its gonna be a while yet before they make room for him. Obviously the better he does at AAA he can put more pressure on them to find room. I just think they will be patient.
  14. Dman
    For the most part I liked the challenge system in the games I saw. The challenges were quick (ten seconds or so) and in most cases the umpire won anyway. The ones they lost were very close within less than half an inch most times. I think its a way to keep the umpire honest and the players less upset as calls get confirmed. Honestly it feels like three challenges might not be enough and or I think if all used they should at least get one more challenge for the 9th inning. I think the biggest thing it helps with is correcting potential egregious calls. Sometimes you aren't setup right and miss a call and the challenge system can make it right. An umpire doesn't want to get overruled by the system and look bad so it creates incentive to call a better game IMO. If players aren't bothered enough by calls to challenge them then they were close enough anyway. Honestly if the umpires are as good as the games I saw I wouldn't' t mind if they gave more challenges like one per inning or something. I think if the umpire is right most of the time they would quit challenging anyway. As I said above I think it also helps players get less frustrated when a call is confirmed or over turned in their favor as they have some control to make sure the call is correct. IMO it seems like a nice compromise and something that could make its way to Major League Baseball sooner than total ABS. It gives both sides more control with a way to make really bad calls right.
  15. Dman
    I don't know what to think about Eeles just yet. I jumped on the Schufield bandwagon when he had a .856 OPS at AAA his first season, but he hasn't done much since then. I have only watched Eels a handful of times and most of what I saw was weak contact, some K's, some walks, HBP and I did get to see him smoke that triple last night. Maybe I caught him on off nights, but he looked pretty average the times I have watched him. Still the numbers don't lie and he has really good numbers in A ball. Walks (15%) and K's (17%) almost the same. A .300 batting average and .500 SLGing in a league where the average OPS is like .730 or something like that and he had a .965 OPS. Granted he was only there about one month and he is old for that level so you would expect him to dominate especially short term. Lot's of players do well at A ball then struggle at High A or at the dreaded AA level so there is a long way to go. Still if you watch him at the plate. See his speed in action. I think you would come away thinking this guy could be a special hitter\player. The sample size is too small to predict much, but with a good eye at the plate and good contact skills along with decent power I wouldn't bet against this guy. It sure looks like the Twins might have found a diamond in the rough.
  16. Dman
    So with Cijntje if he remains a righty starter is he an arm that after a couple of days could pitch out of the pen using his left arm? Or say he becomes a reliever could he pitch righty two days and then lefty two days and continuously be used in the pen? Could be a versatile arm to have if he can maximize both sides. There are a lot of good arms to choose from in the first 33 picks but I still think bats are the way to go. Almost impossible to find elite bats outside the first 100 picks or so and this draft seems lighter than normal for bats. Still with the extra picks they could go bat, arm, bat arm. When going pitcher, going with elite pitches plus control is the way to go, but arms get injured so easy and often that if that happens you get nothing out of a high pick. I like what they did last year with three high end bats in the first three rounds and then pretty much pitching the rest of the way. They should grab an arm with one of there first 4 picks and 33 might be a good spot to get one, but 60 could work too. Will be interesting to see what they do.
  17. Dman
    Man I can't remember a Twins player on the kind of heater Correa has been on for this long. He is catching some lucky breaks on some hits falling in no mans land or just squeezing through, but most are good solid hits. He is really helping the team with his bat right now.
  18. Dman
    Its been a while. He was a pop up prospect. He hadn't been at a lot of events that most top prospects go to. He held some private workouts and from what I understand had good power, great speed, and a great arm. His actions at third looked pro ready at 18. They took a chance that the hit tool would develop as they loved, loved the other tools. Never bet on tools outside of the hit tool. Cavaco is just one of many cautionary tales. The Brewers and Cory Ray would be another. I have no inside knowledge, but I have to believe the scouting department overrode the analytics dept as it seemed well known that Cavaco might not hit. I just don't see how analytics could have been on board when so many others were not. I think Keith Law was not a fan of the pick at that point in the draft and he was right about Cavaco's hit tool. Other pundits thought it was a long shot as well. For context. At the time the Twins needed shortstop help in the worst way and the system had very few high end infield prospects. Its hard to find 5 tool players where the Twins were picking and if, if ,if the the hit tool hit they would have had a very talented player at a position of need, but he didn't really improve with the bat at all. It was an all in gamble that failed.
  19. Dman
    I am not in the "know", but I think ERod is gonna be out a while. It sounds like just a sprained thumb and he tried to play through it only to injure it further so I am thinking 6 weeks to two months for something like that to heal properly? Gonzalez I thought was back spams and he has been out a while so I would assume he could be back soon, but I suppose it depends how long it takes to make sure it won't be a reoccurring issue. Sabato needs to keep his slugging up and K rate down for the rest of the year to likely get any prospect love. He has had splashes of good play only to regress. He just turned 25 if he doesn't improve this year he probably isn't a prospect anymore. Doesn't mean he can't make it (i.e. Brent Rooker) but after 25 you generally kind of are who you are so dreaming on upside is generally gone. A good year and move to AAA would probably buy him one more year as a "prospect". Kind of make or break year in that respect IMO.
  20. Dman
    And it would have looked like a horrible decision last year and we don't know what will happen in future years yet. Look I like Correa but 10 to 13 years is a long time. You have to weigh all the years before truly knowing if you made the right decision. The Giants wanted him until the medicals. We'll see what happens. As of right now today I doubt they regret their decision,
  21. Dman
    The article wasn't about us liking the Correa deal it was about the Mets\Giants feeling like they missed out. After one pretty poor year and one hot streak and an injury that many doctors didn't feel would hold up long term I don't think they feel like they missed out on guaranteeing 10 to 13 years. Just my opinion though. Minnesota got what they needed with large short term dollars and a way to cut him loose if his performance declines. This team desperately needed to fill the shortstop hole. So I would say the risk was worth it for the Twins. We'll see how it works out long term. Maybe they will feel they missed out, but it is way to early to know for sure as the main issue was the years not the dollars IMO.
  22. Dman
    Happy to see Eeles promoted as the Kernel's need to lengthen the lineup. Hopefully they get Gonzalez and De Andrade back soon as that would help as well. They just need to Steal Bengard from Fort Myers and then they should be in pretty good shape for a second half playoff run.
  23. Dman
    That would be highway robbery. A top 100 putcher and hitter plus Kirolloff for 60 days of Alonso? Guy must be a huge Mets fan.
  24. Dman
    I was sorry to hear he was let go, but they gave him as much time as they could to improve and he has been pretty much the same hitter since he walked in as a teenager. I am sure he gave it everything he had but only about 5% of these guys make it all the way. Has to be tough to see your dream come to an end. I wish him the best.
  25. Dman
    I was surprised he elected Free Agency, but after thinking about it more I guess it makes a ton of sense. He wasn't going to get another chance with the Twins most likely with Stewart coming back at some point and maybe Topa and Funderburk and Henriquez waiting in the wings. Probably best to try and see if a team most desperate for pen help would be willing to grab him and give him more chances at the MLB level.
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