Dman

I agree with your analysis and the factual evidence is compelling as well. For me though the calculus can change given the player. Berrios has been a durable pitcher and he has pitched under a 4.00 ERA pretty much every season. He might not be an ace but you might be replacing him with an older injury prone pitcher that won't even give you back his level of production and you would likely have to pay top dollar to get a pitcher close to Berrios level and you might have to go three or four years. It seems less risky to just pay that money or a little more for the younger more durable player Berrios and tack on a few more years to that deal. I get that if you Extend him and as of now that is no certainty either that you lose out on any prospects and that has to be calculated in. If the Twins received a Top 100 player and another close to ready player with maybe a lottery ticket thrown in plus spending the 20M per year on an older starting pitching free agent they could come out ahead, but that is a dangerous plan for 2022 because after all of that you still likely need one more FA starter and there is no guarantee the prospects work out (i.e. Alex Meyer, Vance Worley). So there is risk both ways IMO. If there is no extending him then their hands might be tied. He would give them help in 2022 but the draft comp pick would take too long to help the current core of players so that strategy is even more risky IMO. I do think that if he is willing to do 5\100 to 5\120 extension the Twins should do it. He can bridge the gap to the half dozen high quality young arms the Twins currently have in the upper levels and if the Twins do find a pitching pipeline then they could always trade Berrios later into his contract as well. To your point there may just be too many pitching holes to plan on getting much of anything out of the 2022 season. In that case again your trade scenario makes more sense as long as they get pitching back. I guess we will know more in the next three weeks. Thanks for the fun thought exercise!

Very nice easy read, thanks for sharing that! I have been watching Isola. I got to watch him catch when they were in Beloit in 2019. He appeared very intense, very into the game. I saw he had been hitting well this year. He has the secret sauce of a great hitter with about the same number of walks as K's. Hitters like that tend to do well as they move up levels. Slugging is good and he has an 800 OPS which is not too bad. Would be nicer if it was 850 or above but if he can move his BABIP from 260 to 300 he can get there. He looks pretty solid at least at this level. Most all of the Twins catchers have been pretty good hitters this year so plenty of competition but with more BABIP luck his numbers could look pretty special. I like his story and hope to see him in the Twins top 30 and one day at the MLB level.

I don't disagree with you about trading especially if the return is good. I just don't think they are going to do it. Call me crazy but I still think the FO thinks their young high Minors pitching is going to come through for them next year and they are going to build a bridge to try and make that happen. If Maeda bounces back and you Keep Berrios you have a decent top of the rotation. If Ober stabilizes the back end then they have three pitchers going into next year. Maybe Winder works his way to MLB this year as well and becomes a possibility and they still have Duran, Balazovich, Sands and Canterino in the wings. Not to mention Dobnak, Jax and Smeltzer who could be 5th starter depth. They would just need two FA pitchers and they would be on their way to transitioning to a younger staff. Granted they still might not be good enough in 2022 but should be better. I think the FO believes in what they have built and trading Berrios is too risky for them but we will see. Also Berrios appears to be a pitcher not affected by sticky stuff so I hope they do find a way to extend him.

While I don't disagree with you when you have statements from the Mets in MLB Trade Rumors that the Twins asking price for Berrios is "Sky High" I am not sure that bodes well for moving him. The Mets have been willing to deal in the past most notably for Stroman. So while I agree Berrios is in demand and could be traded I get the feeling the Twins might want more than teams are willing to pay in this particular market at this particular time. Also the team that signs him if they give up a big haul has to be able to extend him as well. As Tom noted not many teams are going to be able to do that and if the Met's can't handle the ask there are even fewer teams that will be able to get a deal done. Personally I think the odds are lower than I thought for Berrios to get moved.

I agree with you Tom. I think most teams will go with rentals and try to keep costs down. Some of the higher revenue teams may not be impacted as much so might be able to still work a deal but it feels like the market might be suppressed this year more than most. We will see maybe I am reading things wrong as well but uncertainty generally leads people to make more cautious decisions. With things so unsettled giving up young controllable players seems like a bad play IMO. To Brocks point yes we have Cost controlled cheap players that could be traded but the Twins would want to keep them for those same reasons. The Twins will only trade Berrios if the return is right as they might need him next year to keep their jobs. Buxton's value is too low to trade him. They could trade Arraez but why when he has 4 years of control left? They could trade Polanco but again he is on a good contract and the return would have to be huge to be worth trading him. Kepler could be traded but he is the best defensive corner outfielder we have right now and I am not sure what value he has on the market with his low average and OPS. Might have to sell low there to make a deal if they even want to do that. Honestly other than moving Cruz and maybe Pineda if he starts pitching better I don't see that the Twins will have much other teams want. Robles maybe but I don't think the return will be great. Simmons bat is just horrible won't get much value there. I am starting to think this deadline might be more quiet for the Twins than I originally had hoped.

Cool night for Bechtold. He has hit better this year. If he gets that OPS into the high 800's he have me believing. Was really excited to see that Palacios went 4 for 5. He has kept that OPS in the high 800's all season long. The K rate is good, walk rate too even the BABIP looks pretty solid a little high but in range. Would really like to see him up in St Paul. Camargo looks like Wallner light. He has a 38% K rate but he is managing a 700 OPS. He has 10 HR's on the year and his BABIP is a little low so if that normalizes those numbers could look better. He could stand to walk a little more which would lift his OBP but he looks like a Twins type of hitter. I haven't been a big Gross fan but the numbers have been pretty solid all year. I guess I question if he can keep those numbers as he moves up but he has done well at High A this year.

That is a pretty nice top 5. I still have my doubts about Duran as a starter as he looks more like a two pitch pitcher. He can get hit hard at times and I don't see him carrying that heat late into games but hopefully I am dead wrong and he becomes the real deal. I like Canterino a lot as well. Bummer that he is hurt but he has done nothing but pitch well throughout his minors career. I think he maintains that at the pro level. Hopefully his arm holds out. Miranda has been amazing this year. I mean the numbers are eye popping. His K rate is rock solid and although he doesn't walk much his BABIP is normalized at 340 so this looks like who he is now. A contact hitter with power that hopefully can play a strong third base. He has given us stat watchers just what we needed. Hopefully the Twins add him early and see how he does in a lost season. I think Lewis will do well enough with the bat and should be a versatile player for the Twins in the future. They sould use his speed and he might need to be Buxton's replacement depending on how Celestino develops.

Agree on Wallner the sample size is way to small to tell anything significant that is why his BABIP could not normalize. He was doing great things when he got contact but a 40% K rate means he was either swinging at pitches he shouldn't have or he could have contact problems as well. I will agree he does not have Sabato type issues at least to this point but if he remains this type of player he won't make it to MLB. Right now he reminds me of Adam Brett Walker III. Guy won the League HR race multiple times but his K rate kept him from ever making it. Wallner will have to improve significantly in the K and walk rate to make it. Look to Brent Rooker as another example of K rate keeping a guy a down. Maybe they both will overcome it but they face long odds unless they get the K rate under control IMO.

There isn't a ton of Centerfield depth in the system unless you consider that Lewis's ultimate position. Celestino's numbers haven't been that great to this point if you ask me and while Whitefield has wheels his bat looks suspect as well. Maciel is a 4th outfielder as he has no power and while they took a chance on Kiersey he has pretty much been an injured bust to this point. So yeah if they could get a nice up the middle centerfielder I am all for it. Still more than position players I would like to see a college pitcher or two that look like they could be fast movers to supplement the big team as quickly as possible. I just don't think the Twins have enough pitching depth especially considering how many pitchers get injured during the year. I don't know what we will have for leverage at the deadline but I would bank on getting a top performing position player at the deadline and focus on college pitching in the draft especially early in as teams just don't like to give up pitching in trades very easily. I don't feel like now is a good time to invest in high school players early in the draft as we aren't in a long rebuild mode but more of a retool and win now mode. If the Twins can get some pitching to work out they have good position players already at the MLB level and the higher MiLB levels. Pitching depth is the only thing holding them back IMO. Get some in this draft.

I felt one of the bigger things that happened last night was Kepler's opposite field homer. Nice to see he doesn't need to be pull happy to get them and the more he goes oppo I think his BABIP will improve and with it his average. Here's hoping he has turned a corner.

Couldn't have said it better. I thought he was a guy that was supposed to be good at barreling up pitch's, good at making contact. He looks like he is guessing at the plate. Like he is hoping or waiting on a straight fastball and cannot adjust his swing to breaking stuff at all. He still has a good eye at the plate so not all is lost but honestly I think he needs to revamp that swing or buy a pair of glasses or something because his contact rate is just horrible.

I would have Winder right behind Balazovich in the rankings if it were me. Granted Winder is a couple of years older but his stuff seems to play as well if not better than Jordan's. At the very least I think 8 is too low. The Wallner assessment is way to Rosie. You left out the near 40% K-rate and 500 BABIP. He was due for some major regression he just got hurt before it happened. I am not saying Matt is a bad prospect but he has some serious flaws to overcome yet IMO. I am excited about Keoni. Mainly excited about his speed. The bat has looked solid. He is not hitting for much power yet but the K rate is under 30%. He could stand to walk more but he hasn't had much time in pro ball so I am betting he will improve all the way around. I am hoping the bat will be for real and that he comes into his power as then he will be a true 5 tool player.

John Olson is starting to pique my interest. The K rate is little low and walk rate too high but a lot that happened early in the season. If he keeps pitching this well could be something there.

I keep waiting for Rooker but so far he hasn't quite had what it takes. His AAA numbers look great. A 950 OPS, 30% K rate and decent walk rate. If can just bring those numbers even in a slightly diminished way to MLB he is going to make it. The way he was so easily fooled at the plate when he was called up though has really sapped my confidence in him. Hopefully he gets another chance and does better.

3 of the top 4 essentially play 2nd base the best, though they all can probably play third as well. Julien is a below average defender pretty much everywhere so hopefully he improves in the field. With Polanco and Arraez holding down 2nd base I don't really see spots for these guys right now. Miranda can play third as well but with Donaldson there not much room for the best hitters in our system right now. AT least we have some guys to replace Larnach in Kirilloff at the top of the top 30. I was hoping Palacios was going to be on this list as he is a SS but he has slumped a bit in June. Really stinks having Lewis hurt and my guess is he will be Buxtons replacement when he leaves, but still would be nice to see where he would have been with the bat. Anyway nice to see we have some good hitters in the system. Here's hoping for even more breakouts in the second half.

Yeah all the experts thought the Twins reached when they took him in the third round mainly because of the lack of power but he looks like the best bat they took so far.

I agree. Head to fangraphs and you will see 20 to 30 players rated about the same. From there it is subjective as to who you like best. The reason/goal to take pitchers early is they have the best traits but also by going quantity hopefully you increase your odds of finding a couple of good ones. The Twins have hitters. They NEED pitching. Take some chances finding it early and late in the draft. They can deal with a year where they take less hitting. They put most of their international signings resources into hitters. Put more into pitching in the draft. Take more bites at the apple and hopefully we find a couple of arms to put us over the top.

I agree with you. Out of the 30 guys teams sign as draft picks maybe 1, 2, or 3 will make it to MLB. That is a 10% or less hit rate. If you trade for a player at High A or above you have increased your odds dramatically because about 50% or those original draft choices have flamed out and your odds of grabbing someone who can make it are better. It also takes a year or two for players to reach those levels so you have increased the timeline for them helping the team if they make it. In conclusion trading can help accelerate a rebuild. When we have had decent players to trade we have gotten decent value back. Escobar netted us Duran and Maciel. Duran has front of rotation starter potential and Maciel still has 4th outfielder potential. When they traded Pressly they got Alcala who is already at the MLB level and Celestino who still needs work with the bat but has already been called up as well. We have higher quality guys to trade this time around so should be able to get better assets back. Why not trade guys who are in their walk year? Maybe the return doesn't work and you get nothing but if it does work out you just got something for a guy that can't help you win this year anyway. I would rather have a chance than no chance at all but that is just me. Trading those guys for lottery tickets seems like a no brainer to me. If salary is the issue in getting an extension for Berrios and Buxton done and you need to clear room by trading Donaldson then I think they should do it. Especially for Berrios we have hitting but pitching is in short supply. If both players want to test FA no matter what then you have to be willing to trade them at peak value because odds are the Twins will not be the high bidder for their services once their service time is up. Get what value you can as mentioned earlier you can accelerate your rebuild if you get the right players back. Draft pitching early and often this year. Try and get college arms who can supplement what you have on the farm in case those arms fail. You have young hitting right now in Kirilloff, Larnach, Arraez, Polanco, Kepler, Gordon with Miranda and Rooker in the wings and Maybe Steer not far behind. Focus on pitching, pitching, pitching at all times. Anything they can do to get arms around the AA level to supplement what they have now would be helpful. Those that don't look cut out to start move to the pen. I think if they do that they can be a better team in 2023 and 2024. Maybe even a team that can win a playoff game.

I agree and hoping another team at the deadline is willing to give us something for him. After this year I just don't see him as a great fit for this team especially with the catching depth we have. If the Twins didn't have Gordon I might feel differently but I think Gordon is the better defender at 3rd and second. He can play short and center in a pinch which Astudillo cannot do. Gordon can't play the catcher position but we have depth there. For those reasons I don't see him coming back. I hope another team does see his value and is willing to offer something decent in trade. He is nice utility player to have because he can catch and you know he will give you 100% effort every time out.

After it was 7-2 I didn't think they stood a chance but at least they battled back. The narrative for this team continues to hold. They find ways to self inflict the things that lead to loses. They are a team that just isn't quite good enough most nights. I hope the FO can work some magic at the deadline.

I like the Turtle but was hoping the Twins could create some value for him by the deadline so they can get something in trade for him. I like the three catchers the Twins have in front of him in Garver, Rortvedt, and Jeffers. I like Gordon better in the utility role. I think this is the Turtles last year in Minnesota. I still think he a fringe MLB baseball player but I am sure others might disagree. His numbers to start the year were good but he has been slumping for a while now and I believe that is why he was sent down.

We will see what happens but I think they will likely trade Robles, and maybe even Thielbar if he continues to pitch well. There is an outside chance they trade Rogers but not sure if they can get a return they like or not. Will be interesting to see. They should be able to find guys like Robles or Thielbar in FA next year and their replacements could be on the roster right now. Thorpe or Smeltzer might be Theilbars replacement. Colina could be a Robles replacement. If they do trade Rogers they don't really have an arm of his caliber and they won't be likely find one in FA as they don't like to pay for relievers. He is the only irreplaceable arm IMO. We have to hope that Yenier Cano and Jovani Moran can ascend and be decent pen arms. The Twins will have to grab a couple of arms in FA and maybe they turn one of their potential young starters into a long reliever pen arm. I think it will be a pretty different pen next year. I think it will be a younger pen next year. They also might be able to get an arm they like at the trade deadline as well. I think they are sellers and I think they will turn the pen over but we will see.

By saying they are Twins I was stretching a bit. As you pointed out they have their differences. The main thing they had in common to me was they both walk about as much as they strike out and that has led both of them to 900 OPS's. Like you I like Steer's line better as it looks stronger. He strikes out less and his BABIP is normalized in fact it looks like it could improve some. His approach looks sustainable. While I agree Julien has some swing and miss I think he improves that as he gets more comfortable attacking breaking stuff. HIs 26% K rate while not ideal is not over the the dreaded 30% mark and his walks essentially offset his K rate right now so his K rate seems more like a solution in search of a problem than a problem in search of a solution to me. There are not a lot of hitters in MiLB with K rates lower than 20% and Twins top prospects Wallner and Sabato have essentially 40% rates so I assume you would be low on or have deep concerns about them then? I don't see how his walk rate is sustainable but he really has a good eye and that is what makes me think he will be a good to elite prospect. When players don't chase or swing at bad pitches they force pitchers to pitch more in the zone. That leads him to get better pitch's to hit which should help him have a higher BABIP because balls over the plate are in general more likely to lead to hits. I agree with you that his BABIP is high and not sustainable it is going to drop. I am not too worried about that though as once he comes into more power (He hit for Power in college) even if his BABIP comes down his OPS can still be high. It might take a year or two for his power to show but I believe it will be there. I like his current approach of having a good eye and just focusing on making contact. The power will come but he needs to be able to handle the tougher stuff pitchers are throwing at him first. You can say there are concerns about pretty much every player but I think with all the data points and things he has going for him he looks like a very good bet to make it IMO and yes I still believe that in time he can be as good or better than Steer. I get that the current numbers don't show it but if you look at what Steer did in 2019 at A ball it was far less than Julien did in his first try. So there will be room for improvement.

I think you are right. They are going to have to face their Kryptonite which is good pitching. I predict a lot of K's and ground balls in their future. If they can get to the Sox while they are down there would be hope but with so many pitchers down and or not doing well even then it seems like a long shot to make the playoffs and then to do anything in the post season looks even worse. If this season continues to follow the current theme I predict the White Sox give us the crushing blow to make us sellers at the deadline.

Nice list as always. IMO you have Julien way to low. If you like Steer at 16 Julien is his Twin and possibly the better hitter. You mention Steer's 400 OBP and Julien's is nearly 500. Either you need to like Steer less or Julien more or it doesn't make sense for me. I thought I was the high man on Sands but you have him even higher than I do. I would Swap Sands for Winder. Winder is just as good and has been more durable. Also I admit I have a bias, but the K rate for Wallner is too large and his BABIP (500) too high to consider his numbers anything but a mirage at this point. I think you have him too high especially for the SSS he has. No one likes Sano's K rate and Wallner is at that rate in high A ball. Not a good sign. I don't love Sabato at number 9 but his eye at the plate is good and have to believe he can fix some of that swing and miss eventually. He has kept his OBP high so that is good. I expected harder contact from him as well but his weeny 676 OPS means he has been mostly a singles hitter so far. He has a long ways to go but his underlying numbers look better than Wallner's with the exception of power to this point. I can live with him at 9 I was just hoping for more from him this year. We have a few difference of opinion but not many. Thanks for the list.