Dman

It just depends on who develops and how quickly. If Cavaco, Rodriquez, Miller and other young guys have elite years then things change. Also if all those guys that move to the MLB club are solid players then trades could be used to recoup talent for the farm. If our pitching pipeline pans out then they will be able to trade from a surplus of pitching to get what they want/need. If they continue to draft well then they could add more talent that way as well. If the guys graduationg dont pan out and no one steps up in the minors then sure things look dire. I don't think the Twins will likley have a top 10 farm in the near future but Cleveland always seemed to have a low rated farm and they did well for years just by kicking out under-rated pitchers. The Twins seem to be good at finding pitching in the lower rounds of the draft if they continue to do that I think they will be fine as well.

I think this is a good move by the FO. They can use another Lefty reliever and so far this spring Coulombe has looked the part. This leaves Smeltzer in AAA to continue to get stretched out and be injury insurance. Keep in mind that when rosters move down to a 26 man Coulombe could end up DFA'd himself, but this helps the team early IMO. Was surprised it was Godoy that got moved but then the Chance Sisco news hit so they still have a catcher that bats lefty in the system set at AAA so should be good whether Godoy makes it or not. I like the move.

Given what I have been reading San Diego is looking to dump salary especially Hosmer's salary. To do that they are likely going to have to give up something fairly big prospect\player wise and even more likely pitching. They are not willing to give up their top three prospects. They also have older pitchers who have injuries in the past so they will need some depth. I think they are gearing up for a deal that allows them to get out of Hosmer's salary. I don't think the Twins will be interested in that. Kepler would possibly work in a deal but I don't think he would be San Diego's first choice for outfield help. I don't think the Twins are going to be a good match.

Very nice write-up. Pretty much my feelings exactly. I guess I am a bit more bullish on the young arms than most but maybe that is because of the success of Ryan and Ober. I think Winder has the "stuff" to make it as well. So that is three guys that look like they could be long term solutions. I get that all three might not be viable in the end at all but all three have had fairly elite success in the Minors. Have to think that counts for something in translating their ability to make it. FWIW the OP left out Henriquez who has three plus pitches and the only glaring weakness at the moment is the Long ball. Granted that can be a fatal flaw for any pitcher, but if they can identify what pitch and location he is giving up that kind of contact, then maybe they can help him suppress those and he could be another rotation arm this year. While Balazovich didn't have an elite year last year it was still a good year and he has been in the top 100. Canterino also has elite stuff and if he can stay healthy is likely a rotation arm for sure. SWR, and Varland could take steps to be options as well so even if just two of those options make it then the Twins would appear to be in good shape for the future. That doesn't even include guys that are on the fringe of starter\reliever in Sands. Strotman, Vallimont, Mooney, Legumina, Schulfer etc. Agree with the OP that translating arms from AAA to the majors is probably the biggest step in all of baseball and lot's of arms don't live up to the hype but this is without a doubt the largest group of quality arms this team has ever assembled some of them have to work out. I hope the pipeline produces or it is going to be another long season with a bleak future to top it off.

Great write-up. I have already had my eye on him and thought he might get stolen in rule V. For once the Twins lucked out IMO as there were several guys that could have been taken, but since no rule V we get to see what they have for one more year. Mason's Peripherals do look good and I have to believe that if he continues to have success at AAA he will get the call. AAA should have some good arms to work with this year so the Twins should have good depth.

There is no guarantee he will be as good as he has been in the past especially since he hasn't pitched an entire season at the MLB level yet. Granted it is spring training but he just went 4 innings against the Rays main lineup and gave up no runs. His ERA in 2019 the year of the juiced ball he had a 3.86 ERA in 49 Innings with a 1.27 WHIP. Those are good numbers for a starter. I am not saying he can do that for a full season but he has had some success when not injured at the MLB level and he looks like he might be back to normal this spring, so I think he can be effective. Not elite, but effective if called upon.

It is a nice list and the Twins got a little lucky with Holland and Julien falling. Also getting Diamonds in the rough with later picks Varland, Laweryson and Mooney didn't hurt either and to top it off they had a 1st round supplemental pick in there as well. I will say it looks like a good group though. The harder part is going to be finding 40 man spots for all of these guys at the end of this year. They can't protect all those guys so hopefully they pick the right ones.

Honestly I think the Twins might essentially have Manea in the system and his name is Devin Smeltzer. They look like similar players stat wise until last year where Manea had his best K rate ever, but Manea has never been a dominant pitcher before last year. A good pitcher for sure but how much better than even Smeltzer? Probably not much although Devin has never made it an entire season yet so can't say he can handle a full season load either. If Smeltzer pitches like 2019 even if more in line with his FIP or XFIP (which were higher than his ERA) he still looks like a poor man's Manea to me. So not sure the Twins really needed to trade for Manea especially since it is just a one year deal.

You could be right. I hope they put Coulombe in against the top guys of the other team this spring yet and get a better idea of how he performs against tougher competition. I do think you could be right about Stashak. Even is they lose him on waivers they have other right handed options in the pipeline. Still he will get another chance as well so will have to wait and see how he looks first. Would not hurt to have another solid lefty in the pen though.

If Smeltzer continues to perform like he has he will be the first arm called up if there is a longer term injury in the pen or rotation. Since he is not on the 40 man the Twins can afford to be patient and not expose anyone right now. I think they pitch Farria one more time and then he gets sent down too. Coulombe is a tough call. He has had a really good spring. Still given his age etc. it seems hard to see him making the 40 man. The thing is I think he is the real deal and could make another teams roster so not sure how that works out but I just can't see the Twins adding him at this point despite how well he has pitched this spring. Moran had a chance to break with the team but walking the first two guys in his inning and then ultimately giving up the three run home run exposes his greatest weakness. He has to come out ready to throw strikes. He needs to be able to throw strikes in critical situations especially with his changeup. He proved that he can't be relied on just yet. So not surprised he got sent down. Cave had a decent spring but honestly he is just a break glass in case of emergency depth piece at this point. He didn't really show that much has changed this spring. He is who he is and it isn't quite good enough for a 40 man spot IMO. I don't think Daniel Robertson makes it either. No room for another second base\utility player IMO and Gordon has done enough to keep his spot and Arraez has done more than enough to keep his. Garlick still has a chance but I just don't see the Twins feeling pressured to add him and lose Rooker to start the season. Maybe I am dead wrong about that but I still think they like Rookers bat and don't want to give him away for nothing. If Rooker can't perform early in the season and the Twins are in the hunt then I could see a switch but I think Garlick will have to wait as well.

Yeah technically they don't need to add Faria or Smeltzer for opening day. They can keep the status quo if they want and there is a decent chance some pitcher will get injured early in the season. It seems like the colder weather tends to lead to more pitcher injuries early. So if they just wait it might sort itself out. Still as has been said Smeltzer is the only possible left handed starter we have so there has to be some pressure to add him. The Twins still could DFA Romero who they claimed from Washington as an easy come easy go deal or if they like Romero's potential Stashak has been less than reliable and honestly I think they have guys at AAA that given time that likely could replace him (thinking Cano, Hamilton, Mason). Given what Smeltzer was able to do against an actual MLB lineup for 4 innings he probably needs to be back on the 40 man.

I don't think teams are that interested in walking Buxton as a walk given his steal potential is essentially a double. He generally gets good pitches to hit because a walk equals a double and the worst he can do to a pitcher at the plate then is essentially a Home run. A walk practically puts him in scoring position so they might as well go after him and force him to work his way on. Maybe that will change given how many Home Runs he has been hitting but from what I have seen they go right after him.

I think Pollock is a good addition for the White Sox. Jiminez isn't the greatest defender in left field but his bat is crazy good. Getting him more time at DH and getting a better defender in Pollak is something Chicago could use. An outfield of Luis Robert, Adam Engal and Pollack would be a good defensive outfield and decent at the plate as well. Jiminez can still play left as well I just think this trade gives Chicago more quality depth in the outfield and makes them stronger overall. That is as long as their thinning bullpen stays healthy. Still it is probably easier to pickup bullpen help than above average outfield help during the season. That being said they gave up a lot to get their shot at moving on in the playoffs and since it didn't work that has to sting a little bit. Still they have a rock solid team right now as long as guys stay healthy they look like the best team in the central to me. I don't think this move hurts them but more likely helps them in the end, but will have to wait and see if Kimbrel is good to great or a bust this year.

I think the lineup is going to be easy although they will rotate guys in and out but I think the starting outfield will be Larnach, Celestino, and Cave with Contraras and Garlic as subs. Infield is likely Miranda at 3rd, Lewis at Short, Palacios, Beckham or Robertson at 2nd\utility, I will go with Palacios just to get him in there. 1st looks like Curtis Terry and Catcher most likely Hamilton but could be Banuelos as well. A lineup could be. 1) Lewis 2) Celestino 3) Palacios 4) Miranda 5) Larnach 6) Terry 7) Cave ? Beckham\Robertson 9) Hamilton Predicting the pitching is no easy task at the moment because there are still several guys in spring training that will end up at AAA but we don't know who they will be yet. What we do know is that as things stand Smeltzer, Sammons, Balazovich, Strotman, Sands, and Henriquez are already set for AAA. Winder and Duran could also be sent down or they could easily make the 28 man roster as well. The Twins also signed Chi Chi, and Derek Rodriguez. So if the Twins do send Duran and Winder down that is potentially 10 Starters at AAA. So as things stand and this would be just best guess when it comes to the rotation and pen. If we go with what we know right now I would say the starting 5 would be: 1) Smeltzer 2) Balazovich 3) Strotman 4) Sands 5) Henriquez With Sammons Chi Chi and Derek piggy backing off those starts. The Pen would be Hamilton, Cano, Mason, Petricka, and whoever doesn't make the 28 man out of Duran, Stashak, Romero and Moran. I am sure there are other no name guys in there as well but I think what I have would be an outline for what things would look like. It should be a strong AAA team with a lot of close to MLB ready talent.

I feel the same way but I am still going into the season with a glass half full view until that no longer looks viable. If you are looking for hope the 87 Twins were never supposed to contend yet alone even win a playoff game so you just never know. I am keeping on my rose colored glasses for now. hopefully this season is more enjoyable than last years.

Yeah if I had to guess as things stand I could see Jace Jung being the player falling to the Twins. Hopefully more players move up into those top 8 spots so the Twins can get someone who is not a plodding bat first player.

That is a good list. If the Twins need room they have options. Unless Cotton really underperforms I think the Twins are planning on him as an arm that can go multiple innings. Fangraphs did a nice writeup on the former top 100 prospect and he was a starter at one time. The Twins have kept him on the 40 man this long I don't see them giving up on him early, but to your point if he doesn't perform he is an easy DFA. I don't love Gordon and someday there will be no room but I think the Twins would have to be hard pressed to DFA him any time soon. If some other players namely Lewis, Martin or Celestino look ready then yes maybe Gordon goes, but right now he essentially covers center and the infield so he has value to the team. I do agree his day will come and he likely will be a DFA unless the Twins can work out a minor trade. I don't like to see Stashak on this list but this is what it has come to now that he has lost his consistency. Hopefully he finds what made him successful soon and he won't be on this list but as things stand he looks the shakiest of all the DFA candidates IMO. Romero as you stated was already dropped but the numbers other than his MLB debut look good and he has stuck out the side 2 of the 3 times he has been out there this spring. I think that is someone you want to take a closer look at. Also I just found out he has three options left so he has flexibility as well. Have to wait and see if he can keep it up but he looks good right now. Rooker just doesn't feel like a good fit for this team but he is a right handed bat with power. Hopefully he catches fire but most certainly is the first cut once Celestino or Wallner are ready. It is a good list and I agree with all the choices. All 5 are in some jeopardy but if they continue to perform well then all still could make it as well.

Hmm I was under the impression Romero had no options left. Thanks that changes things. They can see what he has at AAA then before deciding about the 26/28 man.

Yeah this would be my pick as well. I think they take a closer look at Jhon Romero and see if he fairs better against MLB hitters. The only questions mark for me will be if they choose Winder over Moran. If they really do want to piggy back starters Winder could be a good fit for that. Looks like Seth thinks the Twins will try and pass Romero through waivers. Good luck with that. Would much rather have Romero over Stashak right now.

Yeah Romero has pitched 3 innings this year with 7 K's and a .50 or under WHIP. While certainly a tiny sample size I don't think that is a guy that is going to get through waivers and I don't think that is a guy you want to give up on early. The Twins might have gotten a deal there I think they should wait and see what they have or don't have first.

Not sure who the Twins are going to send down for Pitchers. I see four potential guys they could move Down, Stashak, Moran, Winder and Duran. My hunch is they send both Duran and Winder down. Duran to make sure his confidence level is high and make sure they can ease his arm in to start the year. Winder to make sure his struggles at AAA were of the tired arm variety and not kinks in his pitching to be worked out. Still Stashak has looked very shaky this spring and I don't know if they want to rely on him and his lack of control early in the year and Moran is a bit of an enigma. He can strike out the side or give up lot's of runs never know which guy he is going to be. Might want to start him at AAA and build his confidence to make sure he is ready. So it is a role of the dice for me on the pitching side. I think keeping both Winder and Duran makes the most sense IMO and sending down Stashak and Moran shouldn't hurt the big club. Still time this spring for Stashak and Moran to look better but it seems hard to believe they can look better than Winder and Duran have this spring. Since Larnach has already been moved back down I think it is just Celestino left to move down and they should have their 28.

I agree with JMlease. While I do feel like the FO fell just short of pulling off the impossible I still think they might be OK. Minnesota is trying to be more like Oakland and Tampa than New York and LA. They need to build a base rotation with good young arms from the farm because they are not going to buy their way out of their pitching issues. Even without that last top of the rotation starter that would make this team look better I think the young guys could lift this team up. Maybe one of them is that top of the rotation arm we have been waiting for. There is a lot of potential to sift through this year and more on the way. I know it feels unsatisfying to have missed out on one more top arm but the depth feels for real this year. There could be up to six pitchers at AAA that could be impact arms for the team in Winder, Duran, Balazovich, Henriquez, Sands and Strotman. There are some arms at AA that while not added to 40 man if they perform could still be options this year in Canterino, SWR, Varland, Vallimont and maybe even Sean Mooney or Sawyer Gipson-long could be options if they have outstanding years. That feels like a lot of fire power to help the pen and rotation. This year could go either way and it is likely going to be a bumpy ride, but if those guys learn and start to perform better as the year goes on this could be a strong enough team to make some noise. Will just have to wait and see.

Nice analysis and I agree. Still I have my doubts about them starting with Larnach. I don't know the extent of Rookers injury but have to believe they would like a right handed power bat in there. Also Larnach never did spend much time at AAA and IMO he could use the consistent at bats to start the season. If they need another guy for the outfield they can use Gordon in a pinch. His arm and speed play in all three spots although his bat is a serious downgrade in all three spots. If there was a way to ensure Larnach saw more playing time at the MLB level I think he would be the pick but I don't think you want a guy who was struggling with breaking balls to likely sit more than play everyday.

Honestly the rotation doesn't look much better than last year but hopefully this time the young reinforcements are not injured and are there to be used this year (Winder, Balazovich, Henriquez, Sands, Duran and Strotman are likely all in AAA to start and just a phone call away if things go south). So if guys stay healthy we should have replacement options, however, hard to say how those young guns will do at the MLB level. Given Falvey's statement that they are likely done adding, buckle up it is going to be an interesting ride this year as we find out what kind of team we have.

I was bummed by the lack of roster flexibility but glad he will be returning to action sooner than expected. He can't be an option to help the MLB team this year but next year he might be able to so he is going to need a spot for a while it looks like.