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Richie the Rally Goat

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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat

  1. Richie the Rally Goat
    They didn’t pinch hit 356 times in a 162 game season, on average a pinch hitter got 1.5+ plate appearances. The PH appearances raised the bar a little bit, but the subsequent plate appearances lowered it a lot.
  2. Richie the Rally Goat
    The Twins led the league in PAs as a sub 356, sporting a .662 OPS ranked 13th, but it netted them an 83 tOPS+ (compared to player’s overall split). Vs as a starter they carried a 101 tOPS+ so the substitute hitters cost 18% production overall. yes, the pinch hit appearance raised the as a starter split tOPS+, but they had 120 PAs more than average of 83 tOPS+
  3. Richie the Rally Goat
    To the title of the article, no, the Tigers added the most 2025 projected WAR since November. After reading the article, yes the Twins currently (Feb 6) have the highest 2025 projected WAR.
  4. Richie the Rally Goat
    Per AZ Phil, you are correct
  5. Richie the Rally Goat
    Can’t add to the 60 day Il until the season starts. edit to add: I am wrong, it’s when Spring Training Starts
  6. Richie the Rally Goat
    Are we going to get old school baseball again? Like stealing bases and squeeze plays and players actually putting the ball into play?!
  7. Richie the Rally Goat
    To be a pro athlete, especially baseball, where you play pro ball for 4-6 years in the minors and the attrition rate is 95%(?) you HAVE to be an extreme optimist and extremely confident in your abilities. It’s not faith, it’s certainty that you WILL succeed. It’s what got Louie this far, and it’s really hard to change that mindset. edit to add: agreed Varland could be a 3rd/4th monster along with Duran, Jax and Sands (who was a step below Jax/Duran but SO good, top setup man on 10-15 teams, and closer on 4)
  8. Richie the Rally Goat
    They hit a ton for all but 6 weeks of the season… if they can put a full season together and tighten up their fielding… I really like our chances
  9. Richie the Rally Goat
    I don’t really love WAR either, but it’s convenient! I think having a high number of inherited runners relative to the league would be counter-value. 1) you usually have multiple relievers per game, but only 1 starter. A high strand count would mean your relievers are putting a lot of runners on the bases and not striking them out. 2) a high strand rate without count doesn’t tell you much either. 100% strand rate but only 2 inherited runners isn’t useful. WPA Win Probability Added, and Leverage stats can give you some of that flavor. But they aren’t predictive or comprehensive. The Twins Bullpen ranked 11th in MLB in 2024 by WPA. Again it’s a cumulative stat, so fewer chances, less accumulation. edit to add: The Twins scored the 4th most runs in baseball last year, blowouts don’t accumulate WPA, late and close does. i really like WHIP as a stat I firmly understand and it tells me how well the pitcher took care of business. Fewer base runners per inning pitched is a good thing! Twins bullpen ranked 13 in 2024.
  10. Richie the Rally Goat
    Sands, Stewart and Topa have shown it over the course of a season, Alcala has had stretches, the pen could be very good, but there’s also a ton of risk because all 4 of them are the definition of volatile relievers. boom or bust
  11. Richie the Rally Goat
    SWR at 133 innings was 77th in WAR, 77th k-bb%, 74th in WHIP, 68th in ERA. that makes a Rookie a top 80 starting pitcher, and since there’s 30 teams, he would have been an improvement over the existing number 3 pitcher on 10-15 teams (if pitching quality were evenly distributed)
  12. Richie the Rally Goat
    Sites such as these don’t have editors, so this stuff happens. The Athletic has many of the same issues and that’s The NY Times fer cryin in da beer….
  13. Richie the Rally Goat
    I bet you’re a hoot at parties
  14. Richie the Rally Goat
    Sure is! The standard of deviation of runs scored per game could tell a very different story than simple sum. “Uneven” matters relative to the other teams. For all I know, the distribution falls right inside the league average or well outside to be an outlier.
  15. Richie the Rally Goat
    Are not! I do not believe you :) from a fan’s perspective, 3 true outcomes is terribly boring to watch, but it’s hard to argue with being the 6th highest scoring team from 2019 through 2024.
  16. Richie the Rally Goat
    Living in NW Wi, cable/dish providers picked me up as Brewers area but MLB.tv picked me up as Twins area. I haven’t been able to watch legally for years and I missed it, especially last year when Provus went to TV. i go to 10 games per year, and I’m super excited to pay my $100 per year to watch the Twins on TV!
  17. Richie the Rally Goat
    Yes
  18. Richie the Rally Goat
    Lottery tickets are independent outcomes. 2 top 100 prospects are more valuable as currency, but they are still independent in their odds of success. the ROI we should be measuring is not Jose Berrios, that trade was player for prospects. is 2 top 100 prospects commensurate? Seems so as you hold the outcomes of what happened after the trade in somewhat low regard. Rather, the ROI should be measured on the minor league coaching and training apparatus. Does the coaching machine work better than its peers? Are there subsets more efficient at producing higher quality outcomes than others?
  19. Richie the Rally Goat
    Top prospects become competent major leaguers at something like 25-50%. https://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects SWR was 86th in 2021, I wasn’t able to find Austin Martin in the top 100. SWR had a 17% chance of being “successful” not even “excellent”. Realistically they weren’t going to trade 1.5 years of Berrios for guaranteed 6 years of Berrios. It’s a chance at 6 years of Berrios.
  20. Richie the Rally Goat
    agreed, Falvey needs to make a move or two, or the offseason is a failure. Even if it is a failure, this team can be competitive. The scores the 4th most runs in the AL last year. 5th most runs in AL ‘23. Is that not competitive? I will always prefer competitive to rebuild. Rebuilds suck!
  21. Richie the Rally Goat
    I read this signing as fungible, a guy that isn’t on the 40, but if he gets added they can DFA when they need the roster spot and not feel bad about. as to why Severino and Williams “want” to be in the org, I don’t think that’s relevant. They’re both under contract.
  22. Richie the Rally Goat
    That was super-duper fun! More please
  23. Richie the Rally Goat
    Matthew Leach is still an editor at MLB.com, clearly a placeholder. odd though, while there will absolutely be a whole bunch of turmoil at 1 Twins Way and 250 Nicollet Mall, Suite 600, I can’t imagine it’ll cause that much kerfluffel at MLB, unless it’s the media rights deals being the primary influencer here.
  24. Richie the Rally Goat
    https://www.mlb.com/news/matthew-leach-new-mlb-com-twins-reporter?partnerID=mlbapp-iOS_article-share
  25. Richie the Rally Goat
    Best wishes Do!
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