Richie the Rally Goat
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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat
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NFL changes the rules like this (over times rules, etc) quite a bit, and is growing in popularity, while MLB does not, and is shrinking in popularity. Maybe it’s time to change things up a bit -
Great article/interview Ted! I look forward to more!
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except that negative test results are rising at the same rate as positive test results. That means the virus is spreading. If the negative test rates were climbing at a faster rate than positive, you could make the claim that the virus isn’t spreading and the only reason for new test results is increased sample size. The constant is the negative rate. If the constant never climbs relative to the result you are testing for, you account for sample size, directionally. Larger sample becomes more accurate, and will continue to get more accurate as the sample gets larger, but you can still make relative inferences compared to past if you maintain the constant.
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as stated earlier positive test as a rate of negative test is trending up, meaning growth in positive tests are attributed to spread of the virus, once growth of negative tests outpace positive tests, you can attribute positive test growth only to increased testing, not spread of the virus. That came from one of the imbedded articles quoted in the twitter thread, reposted here: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-should-we-aim-for-herd-immunity-like-sweden-b1de3348e88b Deaths as a rate of infection is trending down, partially due to increased testing, and partially due to improved treatment, and also due to younger people being diagnosed. As quoted up thread by Ben, there are questions about potential impacts after recovery that we don’t yet have answers to. I think it’s great that fatality rate is down, however at current fatality rate (120k at 20 million assumed infections in the US) Herd immunity (70% population infection) means .6% x 220,000,000 is 1.3 million deaths to reach herd immunity. To reach perspective 8,000 to 20,000 people die of the flu per year. And Baseball doesn’t “have to be” a traveling sport, it’s true, but that isn’t an option for the current proposal is it? I just want to remind, the business conference in Singapore with just a couple hundred people was the catslyst, 900 baseball players... just wait and see...
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That link and graph is Minnesota only. MN is trending down in positive tests while the total number of tests is increasing. That is good and means the curve is flattening in MN. The thing with baseball, it's a traveling sport. 28 states have upward trend as does the US as a whole. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
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it's more like a daily business conference. Keep in mind, the catalytic event for this, was a business conference in Singapore
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Who will be on the 20-man taxi squad?
Richie the Rally Goat replied to twinstalker's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I think the ratio of Pitchers to hitters is pretty close. With few off days, you’ll need more pitchers for the double headers and 7 game weeks. -
You are absolutely correct that flattening the curve does not mean no new cases however we haven’t yet flattened the curve. the rate of positive tests to negative is still rising, so no, it’s not due only to increased testing that we are seeing rising positive test results. https://mobile.twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1271641396257021952 The link above is a couple weeks old, but from what I gather is still relevant. In the thread the doctor cites several articles/journals describing how Herd Immunity isn’t the solution. The gist of it, is Hammer and Dance is the way to go. The issue is the US never “Hammered” all the way, and then gave up. The broad context is relevant to our current baseball discussion, because we’re still in the first wave, putting 900 baseball players in close proximity and traveling extensively. The risk is real and the impact is significant.
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I would live in a bubble for 2 months to make $100k if my employer would let me take a leave and let me keep my job. However, that is a heck of a thing to expect of somebody
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Virtual Twins Baseball Megathread
Richie the Rally Goat replied to thuuuuney's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Congrats on your nuptials! -
More details into why and how vaccine testing and approval works https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/here-s-why-we-can-t-rush-covid-19-vaccine
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yeah, but this isn’t a deployment into ‘Nam on a Huey, it’s baseball. What do you mean “realistic”? According to the WHO people with Covid are Presymptomatic on average 5-6 days, up to 14. If anyone is going to be presymptomatic 14 days, isn’t it the strongest and healthiest?
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so baseball players are robots, segregated from the rest of society, no family or homes? I’m not so worried about low risk people getting it, I’m worried about them giving it to high risk people. We can’t expect everyone to isolate all of the time, but even low risk people need to avoid high risk situations. I was hopeful for baseball soon, but I am less optimistic now.
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I'm not sure how to keep this to OP, other than work visa is definitely not to OP.... Please refrain from continuing hte visa discussion in this thread
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19! I forgot that Loria bought the Marlins in the aughts too... man that Jeff Loria what a wheeler and dealer. 12 mil initial investment into the Expos, sells to the league for 120 mil, then buys the Marlins for 158 mil (38 mil out of Pocket for hose keeping track) then sells the Marlins for 1.2 bil. 46 mil investment, 1.15 bil gross profit over 18 year investment (1999 to 2017)
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17 have sold since 2000 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_principal_owners 18 if you count Montreal twice with the contraction shenanigans.
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Inter-League Play after potential expansion teams
Richie the Rally Goat replied to SomeGuy's topic in Other Baseball
so.... no Twins then either? -
Inter-League Play after potential expansion teams
Richie the Rally Goat replied to SomeGuy's topic in Other Baseball
If expansion, I’d like to consolidate into one league and one rule book (universal DH). So no inter league I guess -
As outsiders, we only get bits and pieces of a privately held organization. Pohlad Family Foundation was established in 1993 or 94 (I have seen both) https://m.startribune.com/pohlad-family-foundation-focuses-its-giving-on-housing-issues/486494821/ Also, Pohlad produced 12 years a slave, which was released in 2013. Falvey and Levine have clearly made their impact on the MN Twins. It’s less clear to me their impact on the broader Pohlad Companies/Foundation because of the history that predates. For all we know, a conservative corporate culture (that predates Bill/Jim/Bob) just took a while to match the personal convictions of the siblings. It’s welcome change, but might not be as radical or swift as 4 years. Rome wasn’t built in a day, and doing good things, is good! Kudos to the Pohlad Family and MN Twins for stepping up big!
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Potential Owner Player Salary Fight
Richie the Rally Goat replied to diehardtwinsfan's topic in Other Baseball
This. Player or owner, it’s about the money. That’s ok. I want more money too
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Oh man that’s funny
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This s awesome news! The way the Pohlad family and MN Twins organization has stepped up in this time of unprecedented need is to be proud of.
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I don’t begrudge anyone for making a ton of money. They earned it, good for them. I want to make a lot of money too. The players get paid a lot of money, more than I will ever make. The owners have accumulated 1000x that in wealth. Not just earned a million, accumulated 1000 million. The average American retires with 100k in the bank. The owners have accumulated 10,000x that. Why should I begrudge a person who makes 330x what I do, and not the person with 10,000x my savings?
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my point is your comparison is overly simplistic. Clearly there are market and bureaucratic forces at work to make a comparison of a pro athlete to a public servant a poor comparison. From an owners perspective a sliding scale on a temporary wage reduction seems logical. From a player standpoint, I wouldn’t be inclined to give ground now, for fear of losing leverage on the CBA fight.
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Throughout this thread and others you have leaned on the description “free market”, but then choose to compare MLB players and public employees? The major league minimum salary is more than the President of the United States. So what? If they want to make the big bucks, they should be MLB players too.
