Richie the Rally Goat
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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat
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it’s futures contracts, meaning a refiner purchased that oil for future delivery, that you have to take delivery of on the day it comes due. It’s already out of the ground and has to go somewhere. You can sell that futures contract to somebody else, but when nobody has anywhere to store it... you pay someone to take it. And June and July futures are still in the $20 range. I don’t think it’ll hurt that bad. I just wish i had a spare oil tanker lying around that I could sit on that for a few months and make a bajillion dollars on.::
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The whole Food Riot thing is like the Crude Oil Futures market. The price of oil futures for May delivery of crude oil is down because current capability to store that crude oil is full. If you could take delivery and store that oil at a buck per barrel, you’d make a bundle whenever we get back to business. Canning/Freezing vegetables are typically sold on contracts. Since shipping is down and the local economy is in recession, there is short term concern over storage, so the canners might be having some of their contracted Farmers till under their crop. Maybe labor is short to harvest the early crops for all I know. The “easy” solution is for the Government to buy the excess and pay the canners to process it, and for the government to store and distribute it. The DOD has stockpiled canned food since the 50s, and distributed part of that inventory to turn it (keep dates fresh) via the CSFP program for decades. You would probably change distribution to FEMA to reduce the red tape, but it’s not exactly breaking new ground. https://books.google.com/books?id=DPAsDKAJowsC&pg=PA2&lpg=PA2&dq=department+of+defense+food+stockpile&source=bl&ots=FJS1C2OvKt&sig=ACfU3U1Fu8AFAVUGUS7lNu7Yznl58bN88g&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjq18SFofroAhVLT6wKHVUDAmkQ6AEwA3oECAYQAQ#v=onepage&q=department%20of%20defense%20food%20stockpile&f=false
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good luck! I wish you and yours well, and it’s good to see you. Miss your posting
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A little late as today is the 50th anniversary of day 4.... but I really liked this article. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/13/science/apollo-13-moon-photos-as-they-shot-it.html
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I’m with you, but some definite challenges on the bottlenecks in the concourses. We’ll get there eventually -
Mod note: let’s keep the covid talk to the article context. If you’d like to talk Covid more generally: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/36541-coronavirus/page-20
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in the context of a baseball season, it’s extremely irresponsible to put 40,000 people in a ballpark until there’s a vaccine and we’ve reached critical mass on the people who’ve received it. It’s a terrible employer who makes their employees quarantine from their families for 4 months so they can play a baseball game.
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he provides the link on the thread starter, you don’t need to subscribe. I try to watch after I put the kids to bed while I’m finishing out my work day. It’s fun to listen and dream.
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he said there would be limited availability in q1-q2 2021 maybe 100m doses and scaling up to a billion doses end of q4 2021. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/cnbc-transcript-johnson-johnson-ceo-alex-gorsky-speaks-with-cnbcs-squawk-box-today.html There are 1.1 m doctors, 2.9 m nurses and 42 m senior citizens, so there’s half of the first wave already and we haven’t even touched fire firefighters, EMTs and the factory workers and truck drivers who make and deliver the critical PPE and vaccines that we’re relying on.... that won’t start human trials until September.
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Red Dawn email thread is fascinating https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-red-dawn-emails-trump.html#click=https://t.co/5NWdk5TQCo Dr James Lawler teaches at U of Nebraska and served under Obama and Bush
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A helpful reference https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu
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the economy doesn’t have to die to sequester in place, however there will be significant government deficits (debt) and rampant inflation to prop up consumers, businesses and banks with combinations of monetary and fiscal stimulus. Injecting liquidity into banks via printed money and Treasuries (monetary policy via the Fed impacting inflation) and Government backed loans/bailouts/cash payments to businesses and consumers (fiscal policy impacting deficits) will put strain on our debt repayment and inflation. As long as the Fed doesn’t try to inflate away the deficit, the USD and US Treasuries will continue to be the safe haven assets throughout the global economy as they have been for 50 years because it’s a global pandemic and every economy in the world is going through the same thing we are. The US Treasury will have no trouble selling TBills to institutional, consumer and governmental investors because the global economy is tanking, and there’s nothing safer. https://reddit.app.link/cdO8oncsB5
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ok, so you still need to build scale to 500 million to 660 million tests per year in the US...
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Epic Sano Bomba! Great work Thuuuuuney
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But still, scale. 330 million people in the US alone to test... plus mutations, probably have to test several times per year.
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January 21 was the first confirmed case in the US. Jan 23 US had additional confirmed cases, and Jan 30 the WHO declared a global health emergency. Certainly by Feb 1 the DPA should have been declared. https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-timeline.html
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Ramon Borrego - local news article
Richie the Rally Goat replied to Squirrel's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Great article! Thanks for sharing -
agreed, in 2002 our National Stockpile of PPE was 3X what it was in March 2020. Safety stock (where practical) would have given the suppliers time to ramp up. 3M clearly had surge capacity already in place for an event such as this. It usually takes more than a year to build a machine and qualify it. To double their output in 90 days, they must have had machines mothballed to pull out of retirement. As a professional supply chain manager, I can tell you that too high of inventory generally, impede’s your ability to be responsive, because you bump up against your inventory management thresholds too quickly when you need to make rapid recovery investments. Remember, this started as an isolated incident and not a world wide pandemic. This is where the National Stockpile of strategic inventory comes in. You shouldnt rely on business to look out for the public interest.
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sure, but just like vaccines and PPE, it takes years to get to the scale needed, and the kits are only part of the equation. Labs to process them too. We’re not talking about a few million tests once, we’re talking hundreds of millions if not billions of people world wide getting tested multiple times a year for probably a couple years. Covid-19 has mutated into 5 or 6 strains in 4 or 5 months. Flu Vaccines take 18 months to scale up on existing technology and new technology vaccines typically require 5-7 years to scale up. By the time a vaccine will be scaled to the masses even on the 18 month timeline, it will already be 3 generations late. My prediction is “Test and sequester” will be a new normal for the foreseeable future.
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and kiss that pretty girl on the tilt a whirl
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I donned my N95 respirator and voted today. No sticker RIP I Voted Sticker
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the machine that makes snickers bars can’t make N95 masks or face shields. We’re missing yield and capability in this equation, in other words, time. While 3M was scaling up masks in January and now 90 days later, doubled their output to 35 million per month world wide. They already knew how to make the masks and had the suppliers in place to make them. Automakers know how to make filters, but not how to make PPE. They can learn from 3M or whoever but that takes time. The DPA was just signed, it’ll take some time to train operators, find suppliers with capacity who will need to make capacity too, testing by the FDA and reengineer machines.
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While my organization is deploying Teams, a Microsoft Accessibility Evangelist did a webinar with us on all of the functions in the MS O365 suite to facilitate accessibility for everyone. I’m sold, and when project Scarlett becomes commercially available, I’m putting my money where my mouth is, specifically because Microsoft is doing things because it’s the right thing to do, and trusting that it will enhance them fiscally. It’ll probably cost me a thousand bucks to switch from PS to Xbox, but Microsoft earned it.
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Here it is, Alex Gorsky on CNBC. He’s calling for “a large and fast initial scale up” for Q2 2021 and up to a billion doses by end of 2021. That’s very fast, but still ~12-15 months for the select few and 2 years for the rest of us, when in 4 months there are already approximately 5-6 strains. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/cnbc-transcript-johnson-johnson-ceo-alex-gorsky-speaks-with-cnbcs-squawk-box-today.html
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I think you need both. Money in the hands of people trapped at home helps UPS and Amazon type companies but doesn’t help movie theaters or churches for instance. The US is a service economy, the vast majority of services happen in-person. The stimulus needs to sandwich in order to keep all of the small businesses afloat. And yeah, there’s something like 5 or more strains of Covid-19 already... terrifying...
