SydneyTwinsFan

...and runs allowed

I know it's early, and this thread is usually Chief's domain, but I wanted to get this one in while I could: As of today the Twins lead the AL in runs scored....

Awesome. Since when did Jose Abreu turn into Barry Bonds by the way? You can't pitch to him with 2 outs?

Nice work Tonkin. He might stay up even when Duensing is back depending on how Fien's ankle is

Here’s the basics: Age: 20 (DOB 14 March 1994) Role: Left handed starting pitcher 2013 assignment: Great Lakes (Dodgers affiliate) and Cedar Rapids (both Midwest League) 2014 assignment: Cedar Rapids How did he get here? Miguel Sulbaran came to the Twins in the Drew Butera trade last year. At 5’10” 185lb, there may be legitimate concerns about how physically projectable he is. Offering an 89-91 mph fastball with decent command and some fringy secondary pitches, he was consistently ranked in the18-25 range amongst Dodgers prospects last year. Many fans equated the value of Sulbaran with the low esteem in which Butera was held, and saw this as a typical PTBNL transaction with minimal upside for the Twins. Hang on a second: Despite the questionable projection, a cursory look at Sulbaran’s numbers suggests he may be more than just a lottery ticket or organizational filler. In 2012 as an 18 y/o in the Arizona League he put up a 2.51 ERA and 62/9 K/BB in 57.1 IP which was enough to earn him a late season cameo in the MidWest League. Returning to the MWL in 2013 aged 19, Sulbaran put up a 2.96 ERA and 101/32 K/BB in 112.2IP between the Dodgers affiliate at Great Lakes and 4 starts at Cedar Rapids after the trade. To put those numbers in context, he ranked 5th in ERA, 12th in strikeouts and 10th in WHIP in the MWL, which represents a solid return for a 19 y/o in his first full season. 90% of batters that faced him last year were older. Sulbaran had no obvious platoon split in 2013, allowing .652 OPS against RHB and .688 OPS against LHB (despite a BABIP 100 points higher against lefties). Look a little closer: A closer look at Sulbaran’s numbers in 2013 suggests he may be more impressive even than that. In April and May, Great Lakes used him predominantly as a reliever where a .403 BABIP led to a 5.09 ERA in 7 relief appearances, despite an increased strikeout rate. Once he switched to a full time starter in June however, Sulbaran really blossomed, turning in a 2.41 ERA and 74/23 K/BB over 89.2 IP (with a more sustainable BABIP of .295) for the rest of the season and allowing just 2 HR in that time. Those numbers are mighty impressive; the key question now is whether he can continue to develop and has the arsenal to challenge better hitters. What now: Sulbaran starts his age 20 season back at Cedar Rapids, with some tough competition ahead of him at Ft Myers and talented arms around him at Cedar Rapids. The likes of JO Berrios and Brett Lee are deservedly ahead of him at Ft Myers and his advancement there may depend on how some of the Ft Myers college relievers turned starters (Melotakis, Duffey) fare, and how he stacks up against his team mates. Alongside him at Cedar Rapids are uber-prospect Kohl Stewart, high-upside prospects such as Felix Jorge and Randy Rosario, as well as 2013 draftees Ryan Eades and Aaron Slegers, while the bullpen features Yorman Landa who may also be considered for a starting role. Competition within the Cedar Rapids rotation promises to be well worth watching. It will be interesting to see how Sulbaran matches up against the likes of Stewart and Jorge, and the outcome of that contest will go a long way in determining whether he can turn the intriguing numbers he has put up to date into genuine prospect status.

Miguel Sulbaran

I will really be cheering some of the new guys to do well - Hicks, Arcia, Pinto & Gibson I also found myself oddly pulling for Correia in the face of adversity last year

The Fangraphs data that shows Worley ditching the hard slider he had in 2011 in favour of a cutter suggests some issue with injury or mechanics

Comparing Worley's 2011 with the Phillies to 2013 with the Twins on Fangraphs, a couple of things stand out. In 2011 he had a LOB% of 78% compared with 65% last year. Someone with better stats knowledge can confirm, but I'm guessing around 70% is average. Some of that 2011 success is therefore probably a bit of a mirage propped up with a bit of high strand rate luck. Fangraphs also shows Worley throwing an 85mph slider >20% of the time in 2011, whereas last year that pitch was ditched in favour of an 82mph cutter. Does anyone know if that was a conscious decision, or has an injury concern been preventing him from using the slider properly? If the Fangraphs data is right, that transition occurred in 2012 (4% slider, 19% cutter) which makes me wonder if the Phillies saw something in that (health, confidence, mechanics?) which persuaded them to part with him in the Revere trade. It seems Worley is not the pitcher he was (or was made to appear). Who knows whether he can be again (he has youth on his side), but he's in reclamation project territory now for sure.

Hermann is just a head scratcher. Escobar can be an emergency C for a couple of innings - that's part of what he brings to the Util role. There needs to be a competent back up for Mauer at 1B (if he is going to spelled here and there at DH or the odd day off). The bench also needs a late innings PH threat off the bench. Ideally you combine those two roles, and handily the Twins a few options in that regard. Sadly one of them is not Hermann. Parmalee or Colabello both work here - choose your poison, I don't have a strong view either way - but for God's sake don't sacrifice the overall versatility of the team/bench because your blinded by the apparent versatility of one bits and pieces player who doesn't (yet) bring any upgrade in skills to the roster.

It has been great to have MLB in our backyard. They did an amazing job of transforming the SCG and local media has really embraced it. Yes, the travel and scheduling is tough but I honestly don't think it is going to materially impact the players or the season as a whole. in the scheme of things it probably doesn't do that much commercially or developmentally for the league, but from a purely selfish perspective I got to go out on a Saturday night and watch Clayton Kershaw with some friends, instead of having to huddlie around a tv or computer screen which is how i get my Twins fix, and that was pretty cool.

Great move. I was advocating this but pleasantly surprised the Twins have actually done it

Thielbar has an option remaining I think. It comes down to whether you think a roster with Gibson/Deduno gives you a better chance to win games than Deduno/Thielbar. I think it's the former, but there may not be much in it. Worley is gone or DL'd I think. I would try to trade Diamond for whatever can be got, even if it's not much.

I like Sconnie's roster. I'd personally be inclined to start Gibson at #5, put Deduno in the pen and option Thielbar, but the 13 position players are the ones I would take North. At the start of ST I had Kubel in for Colabello, but I don't see how you can hand Kubel a job right now.

This suggests Gardy at least is on board with Pinto splitting time with Suzuki. Interesting he suggests pairing him up with starters he connects well with. http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/news/article/min/twins-weighing-options-in-handling-of-catcher-josmil-pinto?ymd=20140313&content_id=69227470

How long do they keep up the Bartlett experiment? 0-19? Has he looked as bad at the plate as those numbers suggest? I have been hoping that Gibson wins the 5th starter battle, but I really expected Worley to be the front runner and have a spot in the bullpen all but guaranteed if he didn't make the rotation. At this rate though Worley is playing his way to DFA-land.

Arizona Diamondbacks - 80.5...UNDER Atlanta Braves - 87.5...OVER Baltimore Orioles - 80.5....UNDER Boston Red Sox - 87.5....OVER Chicago Cubs - - 69.5....OVER Chicago White Sox - 75.5...UNDER Cincinnati Reds - 84.5.....OVER Cleveland Indians - 80.5....UNDER Colorado Rockies - 76.5....UNDER Detroit Tigers - 89.5...OVER Houston Astros - 62.5.....OVER Kansas City Royals - 81.5....OVER Los Angeles Angels - 86.5...UNDER Los Angeles Dodgers - 92.5...OVER Miami Marlins - 69.5...UNDER Milwaukee Brewers - 79.5...UNDER Minnesota Twins - 70.5....OVER New York Mets - 73.5....OVER New York Yankees - 86.5....UNDER Oakland Athletics - 88.5...OVER Philadelphia Phillies - 76.5...UNDER Pittsburgh Pirates - 83.5....OVER San Diego Padres - 78.5...UNDER San Francisco Giants - 86.5....UNDER Seattle Mariners - 81.5....UNDER St. Louis Cardinals - 90.5....OVER Tampa Bay Rays - 88.5....OVER Texas Rangers - 86.5...OVER Toronto Blue Jays - 79.5....UNDER Washington Nationals - 88.5...OVER Tie breaker: The two AL WC teams will be: Tampa Bay and Texas Tie breaker 2: The two NL WC teams will be: Cincinnati and Atlanta

What jmlease1 said. I know you are there on the ground John, and so may have more insight than those of us thousands of miles away, but honestly taking Fryer, Mastro and Bartlett north instead of Pinto, Hicks and Arcia would be raising the white flag before a single pitch is thrown.

Done. Maybe now Summit will export to Australia...

Arcia 27 Plouffe 18 Dozier, Hammer (traded late June/early July), Mauer, Sano (up after the Hammer trade) all around the 15 mark. Hicks 10-12 Not optimistic about Kubel

Comparing their best 5 seasons: bWAR Mauer: 7.8, 5.8, 5.7, 5.6, 5.4 Puckett: 7.7, 7.1, 5.6, 4.9, 4.3 OPS+ Mauer: 171, 144, 144, 140, 140 Puckett: 153, 142, 139, 132, 131 Pretty close in WAR, as you might expect, but clear advantage to Mauer in terms of OPS+. He also has the opportunity to add to his record over the next few years

Seth Is the projection what you think the Twins will take North, or what you would do in their place? For me they are a little different. What I would like to see: C-Pinto 1B-Mauer 2B-Dozier SS-Florimon 3B-Plouffe LF-Willingham CF-Hicks RF-Arcia DH-Kubel Bench-Suzuki©, Escobar (2B/SS/3B), Parmelee (1B/OF), Presley(OF) SP-Nolasco, Hughes, Corriea, Pelfrey, Gibson RP-Perkins, Fien, Burton, Tonkin, Duensing, Swarzak, Worley Deduno somehow stashed on the DL, Diamond traded/waived What I expect to see: C-Suzuki 1B-Mauer 2B-Dozier SS-Florimon 3B-Plouffe LF-Willingham CF-Presley RF-Arcia DH-Kubel Bench-Fryer ©, Escobar (2B/SS/3B), Parmelee (1B/OF), Mastro (if healthy) OF SP-Nolasco, Hughes, Corriea, Pelfrey, Worley RP-Perkins, Fien, Burton, Duensing, Thielbar, Swarzak, Diamond Deduno DL, Gibson in AAA Mid-season would be good to see Sano up, with Willingham traded to allow Plouffe to play some OF/DH and Meyer up with Correia traded at the deadline

I like JB_Iowa's distinction between progress and success. Progress to me will be continued player development and roster refinement such that they can put a team on the field in September that can reasonably contend in 2015, to which I mean C Pinto, 1B Mauer, 2B Dozier, SS Florimon(?), 3B Sano, LF Arcia, CF Buxton, RF Hicks, DH Plouffe plus a rotation of Nolasco, Hughes, Meyer, Gibson and Pelfrey. I'll consider it a success if in doing the above they get enough out of the developing players and tradeable/expendable vets (Willingham, Correia) to win >81 games.

What I would like to see: C-Pinto 1B-Mauer 2B-Dozier SS-Florimon 3B-Plouffe LF-Parmelee CF-Hicks RF-Arcia DH-Willingham Bench-Suzuki©, Escobar (2B/SS/3B), Kubel (1B/OF), Presley(OF) SP-Nolasco, Hughes, Corriea, Pelfrey, Gibson RP-Perkins, Fien, Burton, Tonkin, Thielbar, Swarzak, Worley What I expect to see: C-Suzuki 1B-Mauer 2B-Dozier SS-Florimon 3B-Plouffe LF-Willingham CF-Presley RF-Arcia DH-Kubel Bench-Fryer ©, Escobar (2B/SS/3B), Parmelee (1B/OF), Mastroianni (OF) SP-Nolasco, Hughes, Corriea, Pelfrey, Worley RP-Perkins, Fien, Burton, Duensing, Thielbar, Swarzak, Diamond

Take them with a grain of salt if you will, but a couple of interesting performances to note here: http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/org.jsp?id=min Solid hitting from the MI trio of Escobar, Polanco and Santana but no-one really having an outstanding winter. Arcia's .882 OPS leads the way Guerra with 27/6 K/BB in 21 IP - can he come back and compete in Spring Training? Landa holding his own at a young age, albeit in a SSS. Same goes for Thorpe down under