mikelink45

No hurry - Larnach, Rooker, Kiriloff - three good bats. Maybe a step below Cruz if he is what he was in 2019, but if he is playing like his age there is no reason to throw a lot of money at him and every reason to wait.

I do not trust the Bauer surge. Great short season, but history should teach us lessons - take this quote from Wiki - "in 2006 when Aaron Harang, Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, John Smoltz, Brandon Webb, and Carlos Zambrano each won 16 games in the National League. In the American League, four pitchers shared the award in the strike-shortened 1981 season." How many of those pitchers were great? How many would you want to give a long term contract to? Of course Smoltz, but the others had a similar season. Remember Mike Hampton and the massive contract that shocked the world of baseball and then Mike returned to what he was - a mediocre pitcher with a lot of money. 2005 Dontrelle Willis looked like he could be the next Walter Johnson - then reality took over. Even our Mudcat Grant - 1965 wins 21 games and gets great press. Next year he wins 13 and then never hits double figures again. In those years wins counted. Pitchers pitched complete games and win totals reflected their importance. He could have been in line for a big long term contract. It did not come and the teams that considered it were happy it did not happen.

I don't want to criticize the Twins for making the move. I thought it was great - but I do question multi-year contracts I like the aging curves in this old fangraph blog - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/hitters-no-longer-peak-only-decline/ I think about players like Pujols that really harm their team because they are being paid for what they did before the contract and not what they are doing under the contract. Age 35 is a major declining point (Cruz is an exception to everything - so far). At the price of these players the idea of paying for two good years with pay for declining production makes absolutely no sense.

With all the talk about FA and DFAs I got thinking about who the prospects behind each position are – not the top prospects in the system – but the ones that are there for each position on the club. Call it the next line of defense: C – Jeffers is obvious, but he might be the starting C so who is next – Ben Rortvedt would be the next in line. He is age 23 which surprised me, because it seems like we have been looking at him for the last decade (I exaggerate). He has four minor league seasons and a line of 240/315/347 which is not very exciting, but he is a catcher. 1B – Of course Sano is still young and Rooker is too, but who next? Aaron Sabato is 1B – he can’t go anywhere else. His two year college line is .332/..459/.698. I think Larnach, and Rooker have this covered. Or Matt Wallner with one impressive Minor league year. 2B – Arraez is young, but his injury record got really cloudy this year. Sure Polanco can slide in here, and Lewis can be a 2B but Nick Gordon who is quickly becoming a trivia answer is listed as a 2B option (I think Utility is better, but for this exercise he is at 2B. Six years in the minors, still 25. His line is .276/.329/.385 which is not very exciting. Maybe Blankenhorn will fill in, but in reality this is a failed draft pick. SS – Polanco is young, he has been an all-star, but he is still an erratic fielder and people have been dreaming of Royce Lewis for years. Always in the top ten prospects Lewis had not exactly been the highest performing prospect. Still just 21, he also seems like someone who has been in the system forever, but he hasn’t and his line is .266/.331/.409 which does not jump off the page for me, but the projections say he is more than the next in line, he is a star in the making. 3B – Donaldson came in with the press clippings and a bad leg. He got a lot of money and four years and already 1/4th of the years has been a bust. So who can jump in now that Ehire and Marwin do not seem to be in line? Travis Blankenhorn is the only 3B prospect. 24 years old, his minor league line after five years and one game in MLB in 2020 is .257/.325/.431 which makes him another meh replacement. For Marwin I am fine, but long term 3B needs help. LF – Well at this point Eddie is gone and not coming back and I am going to assume Kiriloff is next in line and I really hope they do not play the game of holding him back for more control. If he is as good as we all hope he will be extended before his arbitration years are over anyway. So who is next – Larnach is the logical and he looks almost as ready as Kiriloff, but it might be Rooker first since he is older and team control is less of an issue. Larnach in two years in the minors has a line of .307/.385/.468. Rooker in three years in the minors is .267 /.357/.505. Larnach is 23 and Rooker is 26. CF – Buxton for a whole year we all hope. If not who? I know we can shuffle other players into CF, but it is a shuffle not a true CF replacement. Who is in the wings? We know now that it will not be Baddoo. It is hard to find a CF in the prospects so I will go with Maciel, 21, with four years as a true Centerfielder .288/.357/.361 or Celestino. At age 21 he has three years in the minors .274/.346/.400. These young players are the way to go if Buxton has another injury/accident. RF – Kepler is already extended. Analytics like him more than I do, but that does not matter here – he is the RF starter and will continue to be. His replacement? Probably Larnach who I put as a LF above. DH – I look at the 1B options and Rooker is first in line for DH for me. Sabato down the road. SP – Berrios, Maeda, Pineda, ??? with Dobnak fifth. Berrios and Dobnak are relatively young, but they are pitchers and pitchers breakdown. Who is next? Most Twins fans know Balazovic and Duran, by name anyway. Balazovic in four years in the minors is 18 - 12 3.32 1.15 Whip and 252K – 68BB. Duran in five years in the minors is 23 – 26 3.94, 1.28 Whip, 366 – 131 K/BB. Both are 22. The third would be Dakota Chalmers, 24 years old, and with five years in the minors – 9 – 8 with a Whip of 1.42 and 185/114 K/BB. Chalmers seemed like he had a lot of support last year. His stats do not get me excited, but I think he is in line. Searching for starters 4/5 in this minor league only replacement scenario Blaine Enlow, 21, with three years in the minors would be next with a 14 – 12 3.36, 1.26 Whip, 185K/77BB. Matt Caterino played only one year, not enough to look at his stats so I will just go with his position on the prospect list. He is 22 and a second-round draft choice in 2019. Relief pitching is already filled with prospects – Alcala, Stashak and last year for one regrettable inning, Edwar Colina, 23, who has pitched for six teams in 4 minor league years. 19-15 2.96 1.22WHIP, 316K/140BB. He is probably ready right now. If I just look at the rest of the pitchers on the prospect list I can fill the BP that way, but realize that one of the SP I have for the future rotation can end of being BP and one of these RP could be a rotation guy. Hopefully, someone like the next pitcher on the list – Cole Sands, or Bailey Ober or Chris Vallimont or Josh Winder. That is a seven-man BP. Then there is Lewis Thorpe and Devin Smeltzer still listed as a prospects age age 24. Let’s put them in to give us nine. Griffen Jax makes the ten-man BP on this list – just barely. Luis Rijo will pass some of these and he will join Charlie Barnes to make the future 12-man BP. The question is – are we prepared. And actually, it looks like a good minor league backup plan. Not all of these players will fill the roles, but we have something to start with

Am I the only Twins Fan who looks at Bauer and thinks his asking price is ridiculous and that he is over rated? Great partial year in 2020, but 2 - 5 and an era of 6.39 in 2019 with the Reds. 75 64 3.90 for nine years! This is not a HOF pitcher and chasing him leaves a big financial headache.

I like this rule and wish there was more ways to let minor leaguers go to organizations where they might prosper. I always hate to see prospects held back when they are ready to play or because their position is clogged.

Nice work, I know nothing about any of these players- except Gonsalves. I was always disappointed with his lack of success, but would not want to try again.

Thanks for the update

This is using Baseball Reference for each year and their choice for the most representative person at each position that year. I would say they are the people who DHed the most for each season.

With our loss of Rosario - if we lose Cruz I think the SOX pass us at this stage. They have pushed their chips in - do we call or raise?

That was really enjoyable. Thanks

Overall a very good list, but of course like most readers I will have my own take on your prospects. I do not think Sabato and Cavaco deserve top ten rankings. I want to see something before starting to get excited by a prospect - their draft status is not enough. Lewis Thorpe is completely off my list, I have lost faith in him (please prove me wrong) and Enlow is way to high for me. He belongs on the list, but not as high as you have him. I have Jeffers in the top three because he not only proved he belongs, he did it at the most difficult position. So thank you for providing the platform for discussion and debate.

I am for this as a back up to Buxton, but not if it blocks Kiriloff, Rooker, Larnach. I am just not into pushing the best prospects down each year. On the other hand, if he is just a back up to Buxton and an extra OF I would be fine with that. If he takes Cave's place I am fine, but actually I want Rooker on the bench if he is not the DH.

We need a whole team rebound. Arraez needs to be healthy and play, Donaldson needs to be healthy and play and Polanco needs to be healthy and play and yes Sano, Buxton, Kepler need to produce and Garver needs to find a bat. The big stories in 2020 were Jeffers and Rooker. With Cruz and Eddie gone lets see someone else produce the RBIs that every seems to think is so easy to do - just bat 3/4!!! In 2020 some of our fate will be on the shoulders of the two rookies above and Alex Kiriloff. Maybe even Larnach and Lewis before the season is over.

I like this because I am not a Kepler fan - like you - and I think if we remove all external influences he should be wandering the free agent market too and I think he has less value. Polanco will always have value because he is a SS. Sano is over priced and the line you wrote - "his best is smashing home runs with incredible exit velocities" is one that always gets to me. Do they give extra runs for distance or velocity? I would rank them by value: Polanco Rosario Kepler Sano if all the dollars and contracts were equal.

The question is – should we sign Cruz or just let a number of players DH? I thought I would look back at the Twins DH history. I ignore any DWAR since I am only interested in the DH. Tony Oliva was the first DH. In 1973 he was in 146 games. He hit 291/345/410 and his WAR was 0.7. The next year he was in 127 games with a line of 285/326/414 and 0.4 WAR. 1975 he played 131 games with a line of 270/344/378 and WAR of 0.5. 1976 saw Craig Kusick as the DH – 259/344/432 – 1.5 WAR. In 77 his line was 254/370/433 0.9 WAR. Glen Adams became the DH in 1978 with a line of 258/297/390 and a WAR of -0.3. In 1979 Jose Morales became the DH - 267/319/335 – WAR -0.9 and despite this negative WAR he was still DH in 1980, 303/361/490 and positive 1 WAR. Then in 1981 Glen Adams was once again the primary DH with a line of 209/273/282 and a -1.6 WAR which was the worst on the team. Randy (who?) Johnson became the main DH in 1982 248/325/419 and a WAR of zero. After a few questionable years of – anybody can DH we came to Randy Bush in 1983. His line was 249/.323/.418 with 0.4 WAR. In 1984 he was still the main DH .222/.292/.389 and WAR -0.3. We have good memories of Randy, but maybe he is not as good as we remember. In 1985 Roy Smalley took over DH. .258 /.357/.402 WAR 1.2. For the first time since 1976 we had a DH with a WAR over 1.In 1986 Roy was still DH .246/.342/.438 and a WAR of 1.0. 1987 Roy had a line of .275/.352/.411 and WAR OF ONLY 0.5. After tying Oliva with three years as DH he was replaced. Gene Larkin was 1988 DH .267/.368/.382 and 1.8 WAR. Despite that outstanding year Jim Dwyer was the primary DH in 1989 with .316/.390/.404 and 0.8 WAR. In 1990 Larkin was the main DH again with a line of .269/.343/.392 and a WAR of 1.1. In 1991 Chili Davis became the first DH with a slugging PCT over 500 and a line of .277/.385/.507. His 3.3 WAR also set a new high for the team. In 1992 he was not quite as good with a line of .288/.386/.439 and WAR of 2.1. That was the end of Chili. Dave Winfield was DH in 1993 with .271/.325/.442 and WAR of 0.9. In 1994 he hit .252/.321/.425 with 0.2 WAR. In 1995 Winfield was retired and Pedro Munoz took over with an outstanding year .301/.338/.489 and still only a 0.9WAR. The next hometown HOF batter came in 1996 when Paul Molitor became the principal DH and hit .341/.390/.468. It would be the top BA for any Twins DH. His WAR was 3.5 which was the best WAR so far. In 1997 Molitor his .305/.351/.435 for a WAR of 1.5. In 1998 Paul hit .281/.335/.382 and a WAR of 0.2. Having tied Oliva and Smalley for the most years at DH – 3, he was replaced. In 1999 Marty Cordova was the primary DH. He hit 285/365/464 with a WAR of 1.2. David Ortiz was our primary DH in 2000. No I do not want to speculate on what it could have meant if Tom (overrated) Kelly had not had his head up his… Ortiz was .282/.364/.446 with a WAR of 0.8. In 2001 Kelly had messed with Ortiz so much that he hit .234/.324/.475 and WAR fell to 0.3. His third year as DH he hit .272/.339/.500 which made him only the second Twin DH with a 500 slugging his WAR was 1.5. Having tied the longest DH service with three years we replaced him with Matt LeCroy. Yes, that is the truth and it still hurts and still stinks. Matt LeCroy had a good 2003 season - .287.342/.490 with 1.3 WAR. Then 35-year-old Jose Offerman took over in 2004 with .256/.363/.395 and -0.2 WAR. Matt LeCroy came back in 2005 .260/.354/.444. 0.9 WAR. Then it was 34-year-old Rondell White, .246/.276/.365 and -0.9 WAR, the worst on the team. This led to Jason Tyner .286/.331/.355. Are you paying attention to these slugging percentages? 0.2 WAR. Which led to Jason Kubel, .272/.335/.471 in 2008 with a 1.8 WAR. Kubel came back with one of the all-time DH lines in 2009 - .300/.369/.539, 3.3 WAR. Kubel then moved to the field and Jim Thome came to Minnesota. Thome in 2010 had a line of .283/.412/.627 giving the team their first 400 OPS and first 600 slugging DH! 3.6 WAR. 2011 did not reach the heights of 2010, .243/.351/.476 and 1 WAR. Then we turned to another veteran – Ryan Doumit for 2012 - .275/.320/.461, 2.3 WAR. Doumit in 2013 hit .247/.314/.396, 1.4 WAR. After two years he was done Then rookie Kennys Vargas, 23 years old, took over DH .274/.316/.456, 0.7 WAR. Miguel Sano replaced him the next year (2015) and in 80 games had a line of .269/.385/.530 bringing back the 500 slugging and he had a WAR OF 2.4 (why isn’t he replacing Cruz?). 2016 we went international and Byung Ho Park hit .191/.275/.409, -0.1. That international experiment ended quickly and in 2017 Robbie Grossman was primary DH, .246/.361/.380, 1.1 WAR. And, yes, for some reason many on TD want to bring him back?????? In 2018 he was also the primary DH, 273/.367/.384 moderately good OBP, but is that what you want in the DH? 1.8 WAR IN 2018. Then in 2019 Nelson Cruz arrived. .311/.392/.639 – a record 41 DH Hrs, our second 600+ slugging. 4.2 WAR – our highest for a DH. In 2020 Cruz was still DH and hit .303/.397/ .595 with a 1.6 WAR in an abbreviated (1/3) season. Who was the best – Cruz, who was mismanaged – Ortiz, who was a star at DH for us? Molitor, Thome. We have had some very good and some real duds – Rondell White. And some real question marks like what happened to Vargas? Three years seems to be the lifespan of the DH on the Twins. So would I resign Cruz? For one year – yes. Beyond that no – what you pay for year two needs to be added to year one because you are probably only getting one year of real production.

I think we filled some gap in the minors. I do not expect to see him and if we do the team is going backwards. Every player has to be better than the one before if we are serious about getting to the WS

There is also a job open with the Mets!

Very nice article. Good things to think about, but I find I have no opinion in this. I only have confusion until we start to see some signals from the FO - are we going young? Are we delaying the young players again for some FA we hope can be as good as the young players might be? What kind of arms are we looking at for the pitching staff. The three pickups so far signal nothing and despite the TD writers none look better than Wisler.

Keep dreaming

I do not think that they can pay Cruz what he wants and the same is probably true with Ozuna and those are the only two I would want to see at full time DH. I really like having Kiriloff, Rooker, Larnach alternating at DH and LF. And I hope they really come through because the loss of Eddie and Nelson really weakens our lineup. Who moves up to 3/4 - I am not a Max Kepler fan - Sano's Ks are not acceptable for me. If Garver is back to form he can be there. But this lineup is not going to give us what we have come to expect.

For me he the Twins HOF is his highest honor. I do not see him going to the big HOF and I have trouble with RP in the hall. I know it is changing, but under the current situation I see problems for SP to get into the HOF.

Good article - and I completely disagree. For his price we could have seen if the success continued and still DFA'd him if it was appropriate. Numbers, stats, graphs - the only questions I ask are - did he do what he was asked to do? Did he do it well? Was he affordable. Those are my analytics and I would sign him again.

Thanks for the update. Now let's see the additions!