JW24

Sorry if I have missed this somewhere in this rapidly growing discussion, but what would an extension for Syndergaard look like, and how would that impact who the Twins are willing to trade? Rosario, Buxton and Berrios are all in line for significant raises in the next couple years. I don't know if the Twins ownership will commit the money it would take to re-sign all 3 and extend Syndergaard should the Twins trade for him. I get that this is a "figure it out when we get to this point" type of question, but I think it needs to be asked. If the price is the Twins top two prospects, plus some additional, that is a substantial price tag for a guy who might walk in 2 years.

Absolutely. I think the biggest concern is what impact within the clubhouse trading a member of the 25-man roster would have. Additionally, who would the Twins trade away for Thor in a legitimate offer? Rosario? He is maybe the only guy who would have the amount of value the Mets are looking for in return that the Twins would put into a trade (I don't think Buxton is on the table, but maybe Kepler is?). Marwin and Adrianza could fill in the corner OF spots. I wouldn't love that if I am the Twins.

I was surprised to see this as well, but I suspect WPA takes situational hitting into account. Buxton's two doubles came after the game was essentially out of reach, so there was minimal Win Probability to add to the game. Just a guess though.

I'm not saying it is the first time anyone has ever done it or that the Rays are the first to think of it, so lets just calm down a bit here. With the new restrictions coming to how relievers are used, teams will have to get creative like this to still get the pitching match-ups they want, soon to be at the expense of having someone inexperienced playing first base (in the Rays situation) and losing your DH in the order. I would guess this strategy has not been utilized more because teams value having their primary first baseman in the game for both offensive and defensive purposes, and not because of "respect for the game." If you can get an edge over your opponent by any means necessary, teams will find a way to do so.

This is my understanding as well, coupled with the original post's reference to Angel Hernandez continuing to be terrible at his job and not understanding what was happening. Really unique idea from Tampa Bay, I wouldn't be surprised to see it utilized more often.

I wonder if the Twins are experimenting a bit with the pitching staff construct? None of the Twins starters pitch deep into games consistently. Kyle Gibson is a guy who gets absolutely crushed his 3rd time through a lineup. Odorizzi is good for 6 innings maximum. Berrios (recent 3 starts excluded) and Pineda are the guys consistently getting 18 outs, so this idea does not really apply to them. If the Twins put a limit on Gibson and Odorizzi of 5 innings, and then have Thorpe and Smeltzer as multiple inning guys behind them, does that save the pen at all? If the Twins are only able to add 1 high-caliber relief arm at the deadline, would trying to split a game between a SP and 1 reliever be a feasible solution? I'm not advocating for this, mostly just an idea for discussion.

1.) Where are you from? I grew up in Maple Grove, went to college at Winona State, and now live in Rochester (MN) 2.) Age Range? 30 3.) What brought you to Twins Daily? Better and more coverage of all aspects of Twins baseball than any other site I have found 4.) Highest level of baseball/softball played? Pitched at Winona State for 4 years (Go Warriors!) 5.) Favorite Twins Player, and favorite underappreciated Twins player, and if you want, favorite current Twins player? Favorite Twins player is Johan by a mile. Tried to make it to the Dome whenever he was pitching to watch in person. The crowd noise would grow with each strike, and then explode when someone whiffed badly at his change up for strike 3. Favorite underappreciated Twin is tougher. Does Joe Mauer count (is he underappreciated at this point?) I remember telling friends of mine when I was in 8th grade or so that I thought Kyle Lohse would win a Cy Young during his career (7th in 2012!) I wish he had figured it out with the Twins. Favorite current player is Kepler. 6.) Favorite non-Twins Daily site/authors? I was a huge Grantland fan, and I stop by the Ringer occasionally. Ben Lindberg's new book is outstanding, as is most everything he writes. Jonah Keri also is a very talented writer regarding baseball, but he is not someone I will be supporting moving forward. 7.) Favorite Twitter follows? Pitching Ninja, Kyle Boddy, Trevor Bauer, Nick Nelson, Eric Sim, Adam Jones, Rex Chapman, Mark Titus 8.) Other interests outside of baseball? Chasing my daughter around, playing golf/basketball/football, reading 9.) Favorite part of Twins Daily... forums, blogs, articles, topics... whatever you like. It is hard to find comment sections on the internet with the level of respect TD has fostered. I really enjoy engaging with the members of TD who comment on posts because, generally, it is productive and constructive. That is a large reason why I come to the site and leave comments like this one. 10.) Tell us what we can do better. What features or other topics would you like to see in-season or out of season? I take an annual trip with some friends of my from high school/college/work to see the Twins play on the road with the goal of making it to all 29 other cities. In fact, I will be in Miami next week. I would be really interested in a blog with other people's experiences in various stadiums and cities, things to do at the stadium, seat recommendations, that sort of thing. 11.) Have you been to any of the Twins Daily "events?" No, I did not know they occurred

I am hoping Gibson can deliver a good start for the Twins tonight. I cannot find data to support this, but from watching him, it feels like he is reluctant to show his slider the first time through the order. I think for him to be effective tonight, he will have to have a strong blend of off-speed pitches early. His walk rate would look much better if not for his 4 BB game against Oakland and 5 BB game against Boston that have both occurred in his last 5 real starts. Not that there are any teams you can afford to give free baserunners to, but the Yankees seem to be a team that takes advantage when given those gifts. If Gibby can show command early, he should be successful tonight. Give me a 7-3 Twins win!

I don't think his curveball is well disguised at all; while it is relatively sharp, it is 80 MPH and the shape of the pitch allows hitters to recognize it earlier than they would a slider/fastball/change up. Of course he missed with his spot with the homers he gave up 0-2. If he throws a slider in that same location instead of a curveball, the outcome might be identical, but with additional velocity and a different movement shape, I think he would allow himself more room for error. I don't think he will ever be a guy who has above-average command of his pitches. There is no quantitative way to measure and train for achieving better command that I am aware of. So, this means he needs to find other ways to improve what he does well to increase his margin of error.

The more I watch May pitch, the more I feel like he is throwing the wrong kind of breaking ball too frequently. He throws his curveball 21% of the time and his slider only 10% (per Fangraphs). I think for May to see better results, he should scrap the curveball entirely and throw his slider about 30% of the time. It might take him some time to get the feel for the pitch, but with his fastball velocity up to 95.8 MPH, I think he needs a harder, sharper breaking ball to pair with it and his change up. This seems like something Wes Johnson could help with.

The argument could be made that the Cubs were a Chapman away from winning the World Series, so therefore any and all prospects were on the table. If you could guarantee me that sending the Twins top 5 prospects for 4 months of any one player hangs a banner at Target Field, I would make that trade every time. As it pertains to the Twins, they are multiple pieces away from World Series contention. I completely agree every prospect needs to be on the table at all times, and not to over-worry about sending a guy with potential away to get an immediate impact in return. From reading other comments on this site, it feels like many think there is one move needed that will somehow result in a World Series victory this year, and that just is not the case.

Pitched 3 games in a row. The Twins will likely be recalling him again in 10 days. This is just to bring up a fresh arm for the Yankees series I suspect. I do not believe his demotion is in any way a form of punishment. Just a result of recent usage.

I don't know who you would have liked to see the Twins add in June that would add more stability to this roster at a reasonable price. The price of decent relievers in June is higher than at the deadline because the market is less established. Prying a good reliever away from a team that isn't more clearly defined as a seller in June will cost more than it does closer to the deadline. I am sure the front office has been looking to make bullpen improvements from Opening Day, but they are smart to not pay a premium for relief pitching as relievers tend to have more significant fluctuations of talent than other positions.

None of the games this weekend were decided by a single component. The offense went 6-21 with RISP in the Twins two wins, and 0-9 in their two losses against Oakland. I think it is very fair to pin some of the blame on the offense for not coming through with big hits in big situations. To me, the most glaring issue this past week was how sloppy the defense played. I think the Twins committed 3 errors in the series against Oakland, and had somewhere around 5 WP/PBs. All of that leads to more, unnecessary, pitches being thrown, which has a trickle down effect on the bullpen. The Twins played bad baseball all week. 2-4 is probably as good a week as could be hoped for. Pitching, hitting, defense and base running all can accept responsibility.

I don't know if this comparison really makes sense. There isn't a position in all the rest of sports that compares to the importance of QB. Looking at the contracts players that hit free agency are signing, the market rate per 1 WAR is approximately $7M. In the one season Buxton has played more than 100 game, he was worth 5.1 bWAR (3.5 fWAR). This season he has been worth 2.7 bWAR (2.3 fWAR). This production is worth $20M per year, and if he hits the market as a free agent, someone will pay it. I respect your opinion that his future contract is predicated on Buxton staying healthy. If I am the in the Twins front office, I would pay him assuming he will.

I agree with the idea of letting him earn the money, but looking at his improvements from last season to this season offensively, the only thing he needs to do to be worth $20M per year is to stay healthy and play about 150 games. Other teams don't have the luxury the Twins do with the 2 years of control after this season, but I would be willing to bet when Buxton is eligible for free agency, he would have 29 other teams willing to pay him $20M per season. Ok, maybe not the Rays.

If the Twins offer Buxton that contract, they are telling him they are moving on from him. That would be insultingly low. The idea isn't to pay him his arbitration value in his arbitration years; it is to pay him above arbitration value for those years in order to get some of his free agency years at a discount. 2.5 years from now, $20M per year will be a discount for Byron Buxton, based on both what his performance will be and what the free agent market grows to be.

I agree that finding a solid #3 is not easy, and I don't take Gibson for granted (despite how my opinions may sound). Nice to chat with you, have a good weekend as well!

I think Thorpe's velocity gives him an advantage over Smeltzer in regards to staying in a MLB rotation. He is also still on the comeback trail from TJ, and I am assuming he will continue to improve from what we saw from his one outing. Again, just my opinion here. As to Tomj14's point, I agree Gibson is undervalued. However, with his contract coming up at the end of this year, I think the Twins can replace his spot in the rotation and get similar results for a fraction of the price.

I would offer him a contract on par with Acuna's to start. I don't know if Buxton would take it. The risk of injury is always going to be there but I don't think the Twins should try to low-ball him with that being their excuse. How about 6 years, $100M. $10M per year of arbitration remaining, then $20M for the 4 years after. The Twins should be getting the absolute best and most productive years of Buxton's career at that point, and he would hit the market again as a 31-year-old in position to cash in at least one more time.

Kyle Gibson has been worth .8 WAR this season in 19 starts (105.1 innings). My opinion is that Thorpe could be that good (average?), yes.

Polanco was not forced to sign that offer. He decided to take the stability of the contract rather than try to cash in down the road. For a guy coming off an 80 PED suspension last year along with questions regarding how likely he will remain at SS, Polanco did pretty well for himself. If he massively outperforms his contract, then both sides benefit. If I am Polanco and his agent, I am happy every single payday to see that check hit the account. As for Buxton and Berrios, everything depends on when they sign. They both will likely cost more than what it took to extend Polanco and Kepler.

Thanks for the clarification. The current FO has never had the type of flexibility they will have entering next offseason, and much of that has been created by their negotiating the past couple years and their refusal to offer long term deals to free agents. The Pressly trade, in hindsight, was bad, but I think they did the right thing with Escobar in trading him for something rather than risking him leaving in the offseason for nothing. The FO is working towards some expensive extensions for Buxton, Berrios, and others. Hopefully those extensions create some stability for a number of years.

When it comes to Gibson (or any player, for that matter), the question is, at what price? Gibby is having a respectable year, and for the right price I think the Twins would certainly extend him. Pineda is starting to regain his velocity, and if he is able to get back to sitting mid-90s, I think he provides more upside over the same timeframe than Gibson does, at a comparable price I suspect. After this season, I would imagine Pineda will have a number of teams willing to offer him a starting role in their rotation next season, so I cannot see him signing with the Twins in a relief role.

Sorry, but I am not sure what you are disagreeing with. Is it the Rosario situation, or the payroll flexibility as a whole? I am happy to continue to discuss, I just want to make sure I understand what you are saying to make my opinions relevant. For the record, I would love to see an Odorizzi extension. I think the Twins should look to extend Odorizzi, Pineda, and Gibson in that order, and Gibson needs to be at a very team friendly price. Thorpe could take his spot in the rotation next year and provide the same performance at a fraction of the price.