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JW24

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Everything posted by JW24

  1. JW24
    On the topic of "Off-the-radar" pitchers to target in a trade, how about Blake Snell? He signed an extension recently that takes him through his age 30 season, when he would be making $16.6M. The Rays don't have much incentive to trade him, but I think the asking price for Snell is less than what the Padres might want for Paddack considering the financials.
  2. JW24
    Just because it hasn't been called a strike does not mean it isn't a strike (sorry for the triple negative). Once it becomes the new norm, hitters will adjust to whatever the zone calls a strike. Expanding the zone might actually lead to hitters being more aggressive early in counts, creating more balls in play, and more excitement. I would love to see a zone that captures the low breaking pitches more accurately.
  3. JW24
    With Buxton, I think the Twins have had every intent of signing him to a huge contract once he earns it with his play on the field. His 3 month stretch in 2017 and the way he started 2019 certainly showed he is deserving of a huge extension, health permitting. Gaining the extra year of team control does not prevent the Twins from offering Buxton an extension; it provides both team and player with additional time to evaluate on-field performance and discuss future value. I hope the Twins offer Buxton an extension this off-season (I think he will figure out how to stay healthy, nothing to support my opinion), rendering the extra year of control relatively moot.
  4. JW24
    I supported the Twins decision last year with how they handled Buxton. I thought it made complete sense in that it gave the organization an extra year of team control (and evaluation) for a guy who played 3 phenomenal months of baseball over 4 partial years of MLB play. It also prevented Buxton from sustaining some sort of injury that would have prevented him from coming into 2019 at full strength. I got roasted on Twitter by a some Twins beat writers, but I think it was the correct decision by the front office. The issue at hand isn't that the front office has done Kris Bryant or Byron Buxton wrong, but the fact that the rules regarding team control provide incentives to teams to hold players down in the minors to gain an extra year of team control. Players are rightfully getting fed up with ownership fielding less than their best teams for weeks/months at a time in order to save some money years down the road. Finally, the free agent market from the past couple years shows how reluctant front offices are becoming to paying for past performance. Players will struggle to receive fair compensation over the course of their careers (based on production) due to how long teams can suppress salaries for players on rookie contracts. Mitch Garver is a perfect example; he will not become a free agent until he is 33 years old in 2024. Without an extension from the Twins prior to becoming a free agent, he stands to make ~$15M (estimate). If he were able to be a free agent this off season he would get a contract making at least $15M per year until 2024. By the team he actually is eligible for free agency, he might be playing year-to-year. Rules need to be adjusted to compensate guys sooner in their careers and remove the incentives to hold players in the minor leagues for financial gain, in my opinion.
  5. JW24
    The purpose of this thread, as I see it, is to evaluate the value of Buxton and Kepler in regards to what other teams see. The Twins should not do anything for the sake of doing something; they should do something if they identify the move they make adds more value to their organization than they are giving up. Sure, the Twins are firmly in contention, but they should never stop trying to improve. These threads provide an avenue for discussion.
  6. JW24
    I think Kepler's trade value is higher in part because of his relative versatility on defense. He plays a better than average CF along with really solid defense in RF. For a team looking to add an outfielder, Kepler could play all 3 positions well. Due to the excellence of Byron Buxton in CF, there is no way he gets moved out of that position for a corner spot for the foreseeable future, which could block the path of a prospect to the big leagues temporarily (good problem to have, certainly, but not one you have with Kepler). Kepler also has a team-friendly contract for a known duration of time, which is valuable. Once Buxton gets an extension, the comparison between him and Kepler will become more clear, but I think the certainty of Kepler's contract gives him added value.
  7. JW24
    Boston made it to the WS (and won it) in 2018. David Price was the big earner at $30M, with Rick Porcello making north of $20M as well. Sale was their best pitcher, of course, and was only paid $12.5M. To your main point, however, it is more important to have 3 of the best pitchers in baseball than to pay 3 pitchers the most money and hope they become the 3 best because they are getting paid.
  8. JW24
    Sure they could. It would just mean less money elsewhere.
  9. JW24
    There have been rumors (who knows how much truth there is to them) that the Red Sox are interested in possibly moving Betts due to payroll issues. Rosario and Kirilloff to start the conversation with Boston in a deal that would send Betts to MN?
  10. JW24
    Like the original poster, I was really interested in Robbie Ray at the deadline this year. He finished 2nd in the NL to Scherzer in K/9, but only Jon Lester averaged more pitches per inning than Ray in the NL (among qualified starters). If the Twins can acquire Ray and figure out how he can reduce his walk rate, he seems like the type of guy who could really break out and challenge for a front-of-rotation spot.
  11. JW24
    The MVP Machine was a great read! I think it is pretty obvious Houston is ahead of everyone else in MLB in using data for player development, but the Twins have done a really nice job incorporating it recently. Houston spent about $44M more than the Twins this season, and the fact Houston is a considerably bigger market than Minneapolis is what I see as the biggest reason the Twins can't copy the Astros plan. Circling back to The MVP Machine, the Twins emphasis on player development will become increasingly important, and that is how they will narrow the gap between themselves and teams like Houston. Really enjoyed your article.
  12. JW24
    I don't think the Twins were planning on picking up the $7.5M option for Perez next year, but the fact he was left off the ALDS roster just about guarantees Perez will not be back. Perez had 1.9 fWAR and .2 bWAR this year (seems like a really large discrepancy). Devin Smeltzer accumulated .5 fWAR and .7 bWAR in about 1/3rd of Perez's innings this year, so I think he would be the logical replacement at this point for Perez. Super small sample size, but Randy Dobnak was worth .8 fWAR and .6 bWAR in 28.1 innings. The Twins paid $3,795,416 (according to Spotrac) for Perez, Dobnak, and Smeltzer to throw a combined 242.2 innings this season. Assuming Dobnak and Smeltzer can combine to throw 242.2 between themselves next year, the Twins will have an additional $2.5M (assuming $600k for each Smeltzer and Dobnak in 2020) to spend. Every dollar helps!
  13. JW24
    The only thing you can't do in that situation is let the ball get past you. Like your post mentioned, the way the ball was hit and how it spun after hitting the grass is not normal, but Grisham would have had no play at home or 3rd as it was.
  14. JW24
    I like Buxton and what he does when he is healthy. I also think he will figure out a way to stay healthy. Obviously, his history is that he hasn't been able to, so I can understand your apprehension. I guess I am just more optimistic on Buxton's career outlook moving forward than you are. I think there is mutual incentive for the Twins and Buxton to make a deal. Given Buxton's history, getting long-term stability might be appealing. The Twins could potentially walk away with a bargain if Buxton can play 150 games per season as he was on pace for a 7 win season before getting injured this year. At the end of the day, I trust the FO to make the right decision with how to proceed with Buxton.
  15. JW24
    I think the Twins will chew up some of the ~$60M the original poster estimated was available with extensions to players still under team control. Locking up Berrios should be priority 1. After that, I would like to see Sano and Buxton extended. I think the next guy up could be Arraez (there was a really good discussion on his future value to the Twins on this site a couple weeks ago). I think Rosario is the most replaceable of the group of players looking for extensions, so as we discuss making a trade for pitching, he is someone I would be ok sending elsewhere in a trade. Garver, as another poster mentioned, will be in his mid-30s by the time he is a free agent. If he moves over to 1B at some point in his career, an extension might make sense, but as a catcher, I think the Twins are better off just going through arbitration each year.
  16. JW24
    Cruz hit 41 homers this year, meaning he guaranteed himself 41 RBI. The other 67 were a result of other members of the team getting on base prior to his at bats. I know you are very much an RBI guy, so arguing this point will go nowhere. But I agree with Brock. I think Cruz's OPS was a bigger influence over the Twins interest in signing him than his RBI totals. Also, Cruz is one of the best teammates in baseball, which cannot be overlooked.
  17. JW24
    I totally agree. My post wasn't meant to refute your point, but to recognize Buxton had a pretty incredible 87 games played this season considering one calculation of WAR says he has provided more value to the Twins this year than Sano. The topic of this thread is really good -- last year, with Sano hurt and Buxton struggling, how much value would either provide was probably the question being asked. Now it is which of our two mega-prospects is going to have the highest ceiling over the next decade. I like this year's question a lot better!
  18. JW24
    How quickly we forget how well Buxton was playing this season until his injury and the amount of impact he had on this Twins team. Buxton was on pace for a 6 WAR season, and assuming he can maintain his level of play for 150 games in a season (health permitting), I think he will provide more value than Sano in the upcoming years.
  19. JW24
    I don't think the Twins need a 13th pitcher to have a solid bullpen game. Nick's point about the Brewers only carrying 12 pitchers last year is a good one; the Twins will try to win games this post-season the same way the Brewers did in 2018. Also, in regards to the original article, I think Littell has to be a lock on the post season roster. Stashak should be a lock as well. Graterol would be my final inclusion as well, leaving Gibson off the roster. I would be willing to swap Thorpe for Perez in Nick's original list.
  20. JW24
    I am going to say Buxton. Maybe I am optimistic to the point of being naive, but I think he will have a number of healthy seasons in a row starting next season, and when he is healthy, he is one of the best players in all of MLB.
  21. JW24
    Gibson probably needs to throw a Billy Chapel-like game to merit consideration for the post-season roster at this point. If he does, I sure hope Kevin Costner is available to play Gibson in the sequel, it would be a great movie.
  22. JW24
    Really enjoyed this video, especially highlighting Thorpe's usage of his curveball. Thorpe feels like a Rich Hill disciple with how he has that big sweeping curveball and then a sneaky fast heater to back it up with. I really like the way Thorpe has pitched this season.
  23. JW24
    Starting pitchers tend to have a quicker hook in the post season than in the regular season. It would be nice to count on Berrios and Odo to work deep into games, but recently Berrios has been a bit of a question mark and Odo has gotten outs in the 7th inning just twice this year (and only did it twice last year). I am hoping you are correct, and both Berrios and Odo are capable of turning in great outings, but I think a deep pen will be crucial.
  24. JW24
    I think it is something like this: C- Garver 1B- Marwin 2B- Schoop 3B- Sano SS- Polanco LF- Arraez CF- Kepler RF- Rosario DH- Cruz Bench- Cave, Cron, Castro Pitchers: Berrios Odorizzi Perez Rogers Duffey Romo May Littell Smeltzer Dobnak Graterol Thorpe Room for 1 more. Maybe a 13th pitcher isn't needed. I might have forgotten an obvious name in here as well.
  25. JW24
    Ok, that's fine. Marwin at first, Arraez in LF. Same players playing defense.
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