Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

JW24

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    277

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by JW24

  1. JW24
    I don't know if this comparison really makes sense. There isn't a position in all the rest of sports that compares to the importance of QB. Looking at the contracts players that hit free agency are signing, the market rate per 1 WAR is approximately $7M. In the one season Buxton has played more than 100 game, he was worth 5.1 bWAR (3.5 fWAR). This season he has been worth 2.7 bWAR (2.3 fWAR). This production is worth $20M per year, and if he hits the market as a free agent, someone will pay it. I respect your opinion that his future contract is predicated on Buxton staying healthy. If I am the in the Twins front office, I would pay him assuming he will.
  2. JW24
    I agree with the idea of letting him earn the money, but looking at his improvements from last season to this season offensively, the only thing he needs to do to be worth $20M per year is to stay healthy and play about 150 games. Other teams don't have the luxury the Twins do with the 2 years of control after this season, but I would be willing to bet when Buxton is eligible for free agency, he would have 29 other teams willing to pay him $20M per season. Ok, maybe not the Rays.
  3. JW24
    If the Twins offer Buxton that contract, they are telling him they are moving on from him. That would be insultingly low. The idea isn't to pay him his arbitration value in his arbitration years; it is to pay him above arbitration value for those years in order to get some of his free agency years at a discount. 2.5 years from now, $20M per year will be a discount for Byron Buxton, based on both what his performance will be and what the free agent market grows to be.
  4. JW24
    I agree that finding a solid #3 is not easy, and I don't take Gibson for granted (despite how my opinions may sound). Nice to chat with you, have a good weekend as well!
  5. JW24
    I think Thorpe's velocity gives him an advantage over Smeltzer in regards to staying in a MLB rotation. He is also still on the comeback trail from TJ, and I am assuming he will continue to improve from what we saw from his one outing. Again, just my opinion here. As to Tomj14's point, I agree Gibson is undervalued. However, with his contract coming up at the end of this year, I think the Twins can replace his spot in the rotation and get similar results for a fraction of the price.
  6. JW24
    I would offer him a contract on par with Acuna's to start. I don't know if Buxton would take it. The risk of injury is always going to be there but I don't think the Twins should try to low-ball him with that being their excuse. How about 6 years, $100M. $10M per year of arbitration remaining, then $20M for the 4 years after. The Twins should be getting the absolute best and most productive years of Buxton's career at that point, and he would hit the market again as a 31-year-old in position to cash in at least one more time.
  7. JW24
    Kyle Gibson has been worth .8 WAR this season in 19 starts (105.1 innings). My opinion is that Thorpe could be that good (average?), yes.
  8. JW24
    Polanco was not forced to sign that offer. He decided to take the stability of the contract rather than try to cash in down the road. For a guy coming off an 80 PED suspension last year along with questions regarding how likely he will remain at SS, Polanco did pretty well for himself. If he massively outperforms his contract, then both sides benefit. If I am Polanco and his agent, I am happy every single payday to see that check hit the account. As for Buxton and Berrios, everything depends on when they sign. They both will likely cost more than what it took to extend Polanco and Kepler.
  9. JW24
    Thanks for the clarification. The current FO has never had the type of flexibility they will have entering next offseason, and much of that has been created by their negotiating the past couple years and their refusal to offer long term deals to free agents. The Pressly trade, in hindsight, was bad, but I think they did the right thing with Escobar in trading him for something rather than risking him leaving in the offseason for nothing. The FO is working towards some expensive extensions for Buxton, Berrios, and others. Hopefully those extensions create some stability for a number of years.
  10. JW24
    When it comes to Gibson (or any player, for that matter), the question is, at what price? Gibby is having a respectable year, and for the right price I think the Twins would certainly extend him. Pineda is starting to regain his velocity, and if he is able to get back to sitting mid-90s, I think he provides more upside over the same timeframe than Gibson does, at a comparable price I suspect. After this season, I would imagine Pineda will have a number of teams willing to offer him a starting role in their rotation next season, so I cannot see him signing with the Twins in a relief role.
  11. JW24
    Sorry, but I am not sure what you are disagreeing with. Is it the Rosario situation, or the payroll flexibility as a whole? I am happy to continue to discuss, I just want to make sure I understand what you are saying to make my opinions relevant. For the record, I would love to see an Odorizzi extension. I think the Twins should look to extend Odorizzi, Pineda, and Gibson in that order, and Gibson needs to be at a very team friendly price. Thorpe could take his spot in the rotation next year and provide the same performance at a fraction of the price.
  12. JW24
    I would be really surprised if the Twins do not extend Buxton this offseason. Considering the front office did not call him up last September, resulting in an extra year of team control (a move I was in favor of and got somewhat roasted on Twitter for supporting), offering Buxton an extension to buy out his remaining years of arbitration and then some should be a priority. Does an extension like Acuna's get the job done (8 years, $100M)? I suspect that is not enough, but I think Buxton deserves a big contract at this point. I really like Rosario, but I don't think the Twins can extend everyone, and I think he is the odd man out at this point, given the OF depth the Twins have coming up through the minors. Kirilloff and Larnach should help offset Rosario's offensive production at a much lower price tag in coming years. I can't see the Twins trading Rosario this season, but another year in the minors for Kirilloff and Larnach might have them ready to take over next year when Rosario still has 1.5 years of control. Really good write-up. The Twins front office has done, in my opinion, an awesome job creating flexibility in how they will spend moving forward. They have a lot of options, which is a good thing.
  13. JW24
    Dad?
  14. JW24
    It would be really surprising to see Cleveland trade Bauer. With Kluber coming back, they could have a 4 man playoff rotation of Bauer, Kluber, Clevinger and Bieber, which is pretty darn good. Considering the devastating news Carlos Carrasco received, I would think Cleveland would wait until the very last minute to ship Bauer out given the fact Cleveland has a legitimate chance of winning the division yet. I imagine Cleveland's interest in trading Bauer stems mostly from his desire to essentially be a hired gun each year, and Cleveland not wanting to pay his price. Might as well get something for him now if the front office has no plans to sign him to an extension.
  15. JW24
    Lots of talent in that pipeline! Hopefully some of it pans out at the big league level. Velocity will always play, but a secondary pitch is mandatory to have the type of success most of these guys will hope for.
  16. JW24
    I don't think the "wins lost" stat means quite what you describe here. The 12 losses Duffey had are in no way impacted by this stat/description. If anything, that stat would indicate the Twins bullpen pitched well after Duffey got pulled with a lead. As a SP, if you leave a game with your team behind, you are only able to accrue a loss. The only way the SP does not get a loss is if their team is able to tie up the game or go ahead, resulting in a new pitcher of record. In the 12 losses Duffey had, he could have been pulled and had the bullpen add to the deficit, which would only make it more difficult for Duffey to get a no-decision.
  17. JW24
    Completely agree. Trevor May and Tyler Duffey have both looked more reliable as of late, and Littell has been fantastic in transitioning to the pen. Morin is probably the guy most expendable at this point, unfortunately for him as he has really pitched quite well this season. It is encouraging the Twins are in this dilemma with their bullpen prior to making any moves.
  18. JW24
    Rogers has absolutely been the most valuable relief pitcher in the AL. He might also be the most valuable relief pitcher in all of the MLB. Not starting the year as the Twins closer means his save total is not as high as others across the MLB, but Rogers' ability to throw multiple innings, come into the game in any situation, and dominate hitters on both side of the plate makes him so valuable. The only other guy used like Rogers who is as good as Rogers that I can think of is Josh Hader.
  19. JW24
    The Twins and Mets played 2 games at Citi Field earlier this season. The Twins knocked deGrom around in the first game and had a comeback come up short in the second game when they faced Syndergaard. From those April 9-10 games, these teams have really gone in opposite directions. Looking forward to the Twins hopefully feasting off a bad Mets squad.
  20. JW24
    As it pertains to Schoop, is there any chance the front office looks to deal him since there seems to be no reason to anticipate Schoop returning to the Twins next year? What kind of return could he fetch? (I would also be interested to read an article from the TD writers about the trade value of every guy on the roster). I didn't have a chance to watch the game yesterday, but I have gotten the sense that Gibson is too dependent on his sinker the first time through the order, and does not throw his best pitch (slider) enough. I think he wants to try to save that look for the second trip through the order, but he needs to throw more sliders in my opinion. Great weekly summary, again! Edit: I didn't get to watch the game Friday either, when Gibson actually was pitching.
  21. JW24
    Hopefully the Twins pitchers were able to rest up over the All-Star break because the Twins will need them to step up this weekend. I imagine all 3 games will be low scoring. Should be a really fun weekend with a playoff atmosphere.
  22. JW24
    Really nice job highlighting the impact Buxton has across the outfield. Both Kepler and Rosario are capable of filling in in CF, but when they are in the corners with Buxton in CF, the Twins have one of the most athletic outfields in the MLB. This, more than anything else, is why it is so important for Buxton to keep himself healthy. Garver and Polanco have been really good up the middle too. Twins pitchers look like they have confidence Garver and Castro will frame/block what they throw, and that every play will be made behind them in the field. It makes pitching just a little easier with that level of confidence in the guys around you.
  23. JW24
    It is a situation that only occurs with Buxton's speed, that is a certainty. I think I am a little more lenient than you in regards to his decision. With the offense struggling a bit as of late, I am ok with Buxton trying to make something happen with his legs. As for the throw and play itself, it was about as perfect a throw and as close a play as it gets. Buxton might consider the play a mistake after the fact like we all do. I hope he remains aggressive on the bases. Generally speaking, his speed adds much more than it takes away.
  24. JW24
    Joey Gallo almost threw a ball into the press box from CF the game before. It took a perfect throw to get Buxton and he delivered. I don't think it was a mental mistake by Buxton; he is at his best when he is aggressive running the bases and creating mayhem. Gallo's throw could have easily hit him and ricocheted into no-man's land and Buxton could have scored on that. It is obvious in hindsight he shouldn't have tagged, but I think Buxton deserves the benefit of the doubt for putting that pressure on the defense. One other item of note here; Max Kepler had a terrible series at the plate. Buxton's best chance to score that inning might have been getting himself to third and having the pitcher throw a wild pitch. The fact the Twins only needed 2 runs to win the game yesterday makes Buxton's out at 3rd that much more egregious.
  25. JW24
    I am excited to watch the Twins/Indians series coming out of the break. That will very much have the feel of a playoff series. The Twins offense has not been healthy together since May or so. Getting back to full strength after the break should help the June numbers Nick included in the main write-up. The trade market is taking better shape these days; I expect the front office to make a big move or two coming out of the break.
×
×
  • Create New...