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JW24

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Everything posted by JW24

  1. JW24
    I would be really surprised if the Twins do not extend Buxton this offseason. Considering the front office did not call him up last September, resulting in an extra year of team control (a move I was in favor of and got somewhat roasted on Twitter for supporting), offering Buxton an extension to buy out his remaining years of arbitration and then some should be a priority. Does an extension like Acuna's get the job done (8 years, $100M)? I suspect that is not enough, but I think Buxton deserves a big contract at this point. I really like Rosario, but I don't think the Twins can extend everyone, and I think he is the odd man out at this point, given the OF depth the Twins have coming up through the minors. Kirilloff and Larnach should help offset Rosario's offensive production at a much lower price tag in coming years. I can't see the Twins trading Rosario this season, but another year in the minors for Kirilloff and Larnach might have them ready to take over next year when Rosario still has 1.5 years of control. Really good write-up. The Twins front office has done, in my opinion, an awesome job creating flexibility in how they will spend moving forward. They have a lot of options, which is a good thing.
  2. JW24
    Dad?
  3. JW24
    That is fair and a perfectly valid line of thought. The counter point to your emphasis on RBI, strictly for conversation sake is this: Buxton hits a triple, Kepler hits a sac fly to drive him in. Buxton did far more to help the Twins score a run than Kepler in that scenario, and without Buxton on base, Kepler's sac fly is just an ordinary out. The objective in baseball is to score runs (differs slightly from driving in runs) on offense and prevent runs on defense. Counting stats only paint part of the picture in how teams go about achieving these goals.
  4. JW24
    You are neither right nor wrong, but you are more wrong than you are right. The reason RBI are getting overlooked is because RBI totals can be inflated based on where you hit in the order. In a prior post you compared Escobar to Jorge Polanco in saying Escobar has a higher RBI total while Polanco's average is higher. Well, Escobar hits 3rd or 4th in the order, which are the highest RBI producing slots across every lineup in baseball. However, at every spot in the lineup, players have 2 primary goals -- to not make an out (OBP) and get themselves into scoring position/score (Slugging). RBI is a more situational stat than OPS. It is not worthless, but it provides less indication of who a valuable hitter is compared to OPS.
  5. JW24
    Bummer Magill was never able to really put it together. Hopefully he catches on somewhere else. Looking forward to seeing Stewart out of the pen. Hopefully he can join Littell as a couple of guys who will provide quality innings from the pen for the rest of the year.
  6. JW24
    Sano is 26 and still working toward reaching his prime. Escobar is 30, so he is currently in his prime and will be declining in the next couple years. Sano's floor over the next years is only lower than Escobar's if he continues to be plagued by injury. In his age 26 season with the Twins, Escobar had an OPS of .754. Sano's OPS is .861 at the moment. Sano's career OPS is 70 points higher than Escobar's as well. I really like Escobar, but the Twins would come out on the bottom of a 1-for-1 swap. As for arbitration, I hope Sano's production this year and next would result in him earning more than $7M per year. That bodes well for both the Twins and Sano!
  7. JW24
    It would be really surprising to see Cleveland trade Bauer. With Kluber coming back, they could have a 4 man playoff rotation of Bauer, Kluber, Clevinger and Bieber, which is pretty darn good. Considering the devastating news Carlos Carrasco received, I would think Cleveland would wait until the very last minute to ship Bauer out given the fact Cleveland has a legitimate chance of winning the division yet. I imagine Cleveland's interest in trading Bauer stems mostly from his desire to essentially be a hired gun each year, and Cleveland not wanting to pay his price. Might as well get something for him now if the front office has no plans to sign him to an extension.
  8. JW24
    When it comes to trading players, being the best player on a given team is irrelevant. Someone is the best player on every team, and someone is considered the heart and soul of every team. What matters when trading players is this: team control/salary, age, future potential and value. Sano being 4 years younger, with the same amount of team control but at a much lower price, and significantly higher future potential and value means his value in this hypothetical trade is higher than Escobar's, hence why the Twins would not do a 1-for-1. Escobar has a higher OPS than Sano this year, which is much more meaningful than RBI count. However, it would be expected as Sano enters his prime and Escobar starts to leave his that Sano will be the better player moving forward, at least from an offense perspective.
  9. JW24
    The issue with this line of thought is that neither Sano nor Escobar are able to impact the situations they find themselves in at the plate. They are not able to control when they come to the plate with RISP. Sano is cheaper and younger than Escobar, with much higher upside. AZ would do a 1-for-1 swap in a heartbeat. The Twins would never offer/accept that deal.
  10. JW24
    I would welcome Escobar back happily! He is signed to a really reasonable contract through the 2021 season, and he would be 32 years old at that point. I think Sano is too high of a price to pay for just Escobar. There is not a significant difference between Escobar and Adrianza in terms of positional versatility (Adrianza probably has the edge with his ability to play outfield), and with the improvement Adrianza has made at the plate this season, Escobar's offense wouldn't be a huge upgrade. If the Twins looked to make a deal with Arizona for a package of Robbie Ray, Escobar, Greg Holland, Archie Bradley (some combination), I would be more willing to include Sano into an offer.
  11. JW24
    Lots of talent in that pipeline! Hopefully some of it pans out at the big league level. Velocity will always play, but a secondary pitch is mandatory to have the type of success most of these guys will hope for.
  12. JW24
    I don't think the "wins lost" stat means quite what you describe here. The 12 losses Duffey had are in no way impacted by this stat/description. If anything, that stat would indicate the Twins bullpen pitched well after Duffey got pulled with a lead. As a SP, if you leave a game with your team behind, you are only able to accrue a loss. The only way the SP does not get a loss is if their team is able to tie up the game or go ahead, resulting in a new pitcher of record. In the 12 losses Duffey had, he could have been pulled and had the bullpen add to the deficit, which would only make it more difficult for Duffey to get a no-decision.
  13. JW24
    Completely agree. Trevor May and Tyler Duffey have both looked more reliable as of late, and Littell has been fantastic in transitioning to the pen. Morin is probably the guy most expendable at this point, unfortunately for him as he has really pitched quite well this season. It is encouraging the Twins are in this dilemma with their bullpen prior to making any moves.
  14. JW24
    I think the money matters (especially to the Pohlads) whenever it is spent. The front office has done an incredible job with maintaining spending flexibility for the upcoming extensions needed to keep Buxton, Rosario, and Berrios. When it comes to spending money in the second half of the season, it should be looked at as an investment that will return a much higher value if the Twins make the playoffs and go on a run. It only hurts if you spend significantly and fail to make the playoffs. This piece felt to me like a bit of PR trying to rehabilitate the Pohlad name. Only time will tell if Jim is actually willing to invest in a continuously high-quality product.
  15. JW24
    Rogers has absolutely been the most valuable relief pitcher in the AL. He might also be the most valuable relief pitcher in all of the MLB. Not starting the year as the Twins closer means his save total is not as high as others across the MLB, but Rogers' ability to throw multiple innings, come into the game in any situation, and dominate hitters on both side of the plate makes him so valuable. The only other guy used like Rogers who is as good as Rogers that I can think of is Josh Hader.
  16. JW24
    The Twins and Mets played 2 games at Citi Field earlier this season. The Twins knocked deGrom around in the first game and had a comeback come up short in the second game when they faced Syndergaard. From those April 9-10 games, these teams have really gone in opposite directions. Looking forward to the Twins hopefully feasting off a bad Mets squad.
  17. JW24
    As it pertains to Schoop, is there any chance the front office looks to deal him since there seems to be no reason to anticipate Schoop returning to the Twins next year? What kind of return could he fetch? (I would also be interested to read an article from the TD writers about the trade value of every guy on the roster). I didn't have a chance to watch the game yesterday, but I have gotten the sense that Gibson is too dependent on his sinker the first time through the order, and does not throw his best pitch (slider) enough. I think he wants to try to save that look for the second trip through the order, but he needs to throw more sliders in my opinion. Great weekly summary, again! Edit: I didn't get to watch the game Friday either, when Gibson actually was pitching.
  18. JW24
    Hopefully the Twins pitchers were able to rest up over the All-Star break because the Twins will need them to step up this weekend. I imagine all 3 games will be low scoring. Should be a really fun weekend with a playoff atmosphere.
  19. JW24
    Really nice job highlighting the impact Buxton has across the outfield. Both Kepler and Rosario are capable of filling in in CF, but when they are in the corners with Buxton in CF, the Twins have one of the most athletic outfields in the MLB. This, more than anything else, is why it is so important for Buxton to keep himself healthy. Garver and Polanco have been really good up the middle too. Twins pitchers look like they have confidence Garver and Castro will frame/block what they throw, and that every play will be made behind them in the field. It makes pitching just a little easier with that level of confidence in the guys around you.
  20. JW24
    It is a situation that only occurs with Buxton's speed, that is a certainty. I think I am a little more lenient than you in regards to his decision. With the offense struggling a bit as of late, I am ok with Buxton trying to make something happen with his legs. As for the throw and play itself, it was about as perfect a throw and as close a play as it gets. Buxton might consider the play a mistake after the fact like we all do. I hope he remains aggressive on the bases. Generally speaking, his speed adds much more than it takes away.
  21. JW24
    Joey Gallo almost threw a ball into the press box from CF the game before. It took a perfect throw to get Buxton and he delivered. I don't think it was a mental mistake by Buxton; he is at his best when he is aggressive running the bases and creating mayhem. Gallo's throw could have easily hit him and ricocheted into no-man's land and Buxton could have scored on that. It is obvious in hindsight he shouldn't have tagged, but I think Buxton deserves the benefit of the doubt for putting that pressure on the defense. One other item of note here; Max Kepler had a terrible series at the plate. Buxton's best chance to score that inning might have been getting himself to third and having the pitcher throw a wild pitch. The fact the Twins only needed 2 runs to win the game yesterday makes Buxton's out at 3rd that much more egregious.
  22. JW24
    I am excited to watch the Twins/Indians series coming out of the break. That will very much have the feel of a playoff series. The Twins offense has not been healthy together since May or so. Getting back to full strength after the break should help the June numbers Nick included in the main write-up. The trade market is taking better shape these days; I expect the front office to make a big move or two coming out of the break.
  23. JW24
    No reason to automatically pass on a guy who could figure to be the Twins second best reliever this season without knowing what the cost to acquire him would be. Iglesias's walk rate is elevated this year compared to prior seasons. If he can lower that to his career norm (about 3 BB/9), it is reasonable to expect his ERA to drop. The 34 innings he has thrown this season are a small sample size to consider yet. He is also pretty affordable through 2021. If he can be acquired for less than one of the Twins top prospects, I think the Twins would be smart to pull the trigger.
  24. JW24
    The Mets would be selling lower right now than what it would have cost to acquire him 2 years ago. The asking price is going to be steep, and I wasn't trying to imply the Mets will just give him away. With the amount of team control remaining, the Mets need a significant offer to even consider it. My comment was meant to imply the Twins would be trading for someone who has a higher ceiling than what we have seen from him yet, hence the "buying low".
  25. JW24
    There is an awful lot of concern that a 26-year-old, who was formerly one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, is too risky to take a chance on, which seems short-sighted to me. The Mets are not exactly a cutting-edge organization. They just hired an 82-year-old as their new pitching coach. I would be willing to see what the Twins organization is able to do with Syndergaard to help him return to his previous form. If anything, the Twins might be buying low on a guy who has yet to realize his full potential, and has team control remaining. Wes Johnson helped turn Martin Perez into a serviceable (above average?) starting pitcher this season. I have faith Syndergaard would see improvement with the Twins as well.
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