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DataNerd

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Everything posted by DataNerd

  1. DataNerd
    That would require them to have Caratini under contract for next year, which isn't their style. They currently only have 1 player (Steven Matz) under contract for 27.
  2. DataNerd
    That ranking was off of Tolle being the 50th overall pick and not having thrown in the pros. He then proceded to run a 38 K%/7BB% in A+, then a 37/7 in AA. He had a massive up arrow next to his name halfway through the year.
  3. DataNerd
    I'm higher on Kendle than I ever was on Fedko (not that I'm that high on Kendle). Less strikeouts, higher BABIP driven by way more linedrives, and hasn't had much true struggles in the low minors (Fedko had an 84 wRC+ in AA at 24yr). Kendle is currently 24 so he needs to move pretty fast to be something, but he's continued to look good at AA and could end up starting 27 in AAA and debuting next year.
  4. DataNerd
    I believe it was Boston that someone big accidentally tweeted that they had traded for him at the deadline last year. They have seemed to be interested in him, and a guy like Anthony Eyanson would we the type of guy we would be wanting back.
  5. DataNerd
    MIN and CLE combined for 2.00 WPA for the pitchers (1.25 and 0.75). Not a good day for clutch hitting, but eventually someone had to get one and it was us.
  6. DataNerd
    Yep. I've got it at $68,400 with only 14th round pick Alec Bouchard unknown.
  7. DataNerd
    Its 5%, so ~800k if the Twins were to max it. Less than a third of teams fully max out their overage.
  8. DataNerd
    I don't think the fastball command is an issue, its more of that it's not a great pitch anywhere he throws it. Changeup has been a horrible pitch, getting hit in the zone and not missing bats. The fastball has to be a strikeout threat to make the breaking pitches really work, and if he moves to the pen it might become enough of a threat
  9. DataNerd
    The only thing I'm questioning on that is that Ethan Lay is listed here as slot value, and I can't find anything online that confirms that and people thought he was an underslot pick. If he did sign for that, we would be at -424k space, with Renfrow likely being about slot, Burns reportedly overslot, and Raab/Klecker underslot, but their combined slot values is only 415k.
  10. DataNerd
    His lowest wRC+ that he has ever had at a level/year when he has had >100PAs is 132, and that was complex ball in 2021. The bat is consistant, the availability is anything but.
  11. DataNerd
    I personally have Lackey 3 instead of 2, but that is more due to thinking Culpepper is a top 20 prospect. I would have him closer to Jenkins at 1 than Houston at 4 Young needs to get moved down way faster. The hit tool, which was questionable at draft time, is worse than people thought. Wachsmann is way too low for this list. Given how close they were together and how much different the $ is going to be, I can't see ranking him below Renfrow and he should be closer to Tinney than Renfrow (Tinney is probably a bit low for me).
  12. DataNerd
    Other than some bullpen help and a rental starter to prevent relying on Parades, I would rather trade for 2027 guys in 2027. I also have our current payroll for 27 at $105M, well below the current 125. We lose Jeffers, who we aren't replacing, and Bell/Rogers who we would need to but are easily replaceable. Trading Larnach would open another 7M. There will be room to add to the pen even with our constraints.
  13. DataNerd
    $2.25M, about 1.2M over slot. They almost certainly had that number when they picked him
  14. DataNerd
    Jim Callis
  15. DataNerd
    There has been an uptick of long-term extensions this year because nobody knows and the players/teams know that voiding existing contracts is off the table in negotiations. There may be a maximum contract length that is shorter than what Taj could get now, so if he waits until the new CBA is signed he might not legally be able to get as many years as he would like to increase his minimum career earnings.
  16. DataNerd
    Always depends on if he wants to do it, but this is a great time for the team to do it because there is a good chance Bradley will trade some of his expected earnings if he doesn't sign for set-for-life money. 750k signing bonus, never made more than MLB minimum, hard to pass up something that would probably be between 75-100M, especially as a pitcher.
  17. DataNerd
    Fastball gets hit hard and doesn't miss many bats. Changeup has been awful. Slider/Curveball both miss bats, when hitters chase, but when they don't and he gets behind in the count or in full counts he doesn't have a pitch he can throw in the zone. Reason a move to the bullpen is appealing is that his fastball at 97-98 would be a good pitch to pound the zone and then get Ks with the breaking stuff.
  18. DataNerd
    His cost is not in that ballpark. He had a 2.70 ERA/3.64 FIP last year, this year is 4.66/4.38. It's also only half a year rather than a full year. They also overpaid for him at the time, which is why the Mets are the 2nd to worst team in the NL--their FO is one of if not the worst in baseball
  19. DataNerd
    We are 49-51, trading anyone on this list is a mistake at this point. This is a middling team and trading major assets when you are on the upswing on a middling team is a mistake due to being impatient. If we want to use prospects to improve the team, wait until the offseason where the guys we want will be cheaper
  20. DataNerd
    Historically the top of the draft is the least efficient way to get pitching WAR (as a fraction of what you would get for a hitter) and Flora was nowhere near as dominant as Skenes/Burns were. Past the 30s/40s you lose much less by taking pitching.
  21. DataNerd
    A rental SP makes more sense than one with control. Ryan/Bradley are under control, for next year, same with Zebby/Ober/Prielipp (question being if they are good enough to start), and we get Abel/Pablo back from injury. Trading major assets to attempt a playoff run when you are 49-50 with a 32% chance to make the playoffs (FanGraphs) because the owner wants to make a splash is the type of thing that stupid orgs do. If we can't afford to pay for players, we definitely can't afford to be stupid.
  22. DataNerd
    I don't think either of those trades with the Angels is even close to what it would cost. Soriano has been a slightly above average pitcher and has 2 more years of control and you aren't even offering a top 100 guy. Detmers probably can't be done without giving up Jenkins or Culpepper+borderline T100 guy.
  23. DataNerd
    He turns 26 in September and is in AA. I'm not sure he makes the top 50
  24. DataNerd
    The top of the system is incredibly strong: I'm not sure another team can match Jenkins/Culpepper/Lackey/Houston (I'm very high on both SS compared to the media). Really lacking in 2nd tier players though
  25. DataNerd
    21-22 were from TJ, then 23-24 were from not healing properly from it. In 20 the season got cut and he has been fine in 25-26. It's not been the case where he just keeps injuring his arm with different things every year. He has gotten killed by having his injuries at the worst time in the year where he misses more than a year from them.
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