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Everything posted by The Great Hambino
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I appreciate the convo as well. I like to think my pessimism is realism, but that might be a defense mechanism - expect the worst, hope for the best. (Except for Outman. That I'm full-blown pessimist. Meaningful pieces of a contender don't need time at AAA to work on things at age 28) Ultimately my entire viewpoint hinges on their willingness to reinvest in payroll, which will or won't happen regardless of my opinion
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I would hope for a return like you described for Ryan. If they're not looking at 2026 as a competitive year, it would open up the possibilities of getting someone a little further away but more highly regarded. But that's in the ballpark of what I'd hope to get for him. I think that they do have the elements of a quality bullpen, I just don't think they'll have them identified and developed by any time next year. I think - in fact, I hope - it takes them longer than April 2026 to sift through their pile of young fringe starters and figure out the future rotation. And I think that has to happen before they can really develop they guys that don't make the cut as back-end bullpen stalwarts. And I don't see that happening over the course of 2/3rds of a season. If they have a quality bullpen by the end of 2027, they will have done an impressive job. I don't think extending Jeffers is an option because I don't know why he or Boras would agree to one without it being very lucrative, and I just don't see current ownership doing that. Just because they have the funds to spend on an O'Hearn doesn't mean they will. In fact, I'd be shocked if current ownership did. Same with any meaningful bullpen reinforcements. I think they're shopping in the Jay Jackson clearance rack. The outfield you've described is not a contending outfield, at least not right away. I'm very excited for Jenkins, but I think it's wishful thinking to think that he'll be the kind of player they need him to be to contend right away, certainly not in 2026. Gonzalez is even less likely to be that kind of contributor in that timeframe. Roden to me is a less powerful Larnach with the bat. Outman and Martin? Come on, man... Ultimately, the timing of their window depends on their willingness to reinvest their salary savings in the roster. Under this ownership, I just don't see that happening. They just don't seem like the type to put money into an asset they don't want. But all bets are off if there's new ownership in place anytime soon. I will say this, though: I think they've positioned themselves well to be able to pivot in either direction. If they do choose to go for a quick turnaround, they have the opportunity to make real upgrades through free agency, especially if the only starter traded is Lopez (more immediate cash available). But they're also in a position to complete a full teardown this offseason if that reinvestment isn't happening. They haven't picked a lane, but they are in a position to decisively pick one this offseason
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Speaking for myself, I'm working off the assumption that a sale is not imminent. I do not envision them reinvesting the savings if this is true. I look at what they have, and I just don't see a lineup that can seriously compete in the next two years without some real free agent investment. There are some promising elements that could be key parts of a competitive lineup, but I'm not seeing that middle-of-the-order high level production that a competitive lineup needs. Jenkins or ERod could eventually be that, but not in the next two years without some incredibly wishful thinking. I think the ship has sailed on Wallner and Royce (especially Wallner) being that - too inconsistent. And who catches in 2027? They're not extending Jeffers in this scenario. Nothing they've received in this round of trades will meaningfully help in this window on the position player front (Roden ain't that guy). There's just too many holes to rebuild in-house in that short of a timeframe. And the bullpen ... you're basically starting from scratch. The quality bullpen they just shipped off wasn't built overnight. They may have the elements of one on hand, but they have to work out what the future rotation is first. The guys that don't make that cut might be quality bullpen pieces, but do we really think they can get that all sorted out in less than two years? You're banking on winning a lot of coin flips for that to be true. So, if a return to contention isn't realistic by 2027 without free agent investment, and that investment isn't going to meaningfully happen, then 2026/2027 isn't really a contention window. In that case, there's no reason to keep any of Lopez/Ryan/Ober into next year unless they have health issues dragging their value down to the point they're better off waiting until next trade deadline to see if they can rebuild that value This is all rooted in the assumption that they're not reinvesting the salary savings (both Correa and the arb raises they now don't have to give out) they got this trade deadline. I'd love to be proven wrong, but I'll believe it when I see it. Reasonable minds can differ about the returns they got in trade, but the fact is every single move they made was something you'd do if you were planning on cutting payroll to the bone for the next few years (maybe not Varland so much, but that move certainly didn't cost them more money). It's not the only reason for the trades, but it's certainly a reason.
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I've been trying to think about how this could relate to a sale, because I agree that it doesn't really make much sense to me. Could it be a hedge? Maybe clearing the books while they can in case whatever they have in the works falls through? Maybe they thought they had Ishbia in the bag and don't want to get burned again. So clear yourself of future commitments in case you're left holding the bag. I dunno I've never been a billionaire, but if I were, I would be thinking about a franchise purchase as a decades-long investment. I'm not sure prospective buyers are as concerned with the current state of the roster as fans might think. In my mind, they're playing the long game
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I will believe there is a sale taking place when the agreement is signed. I think people are putting waaaay too much stock in vague rumors of “momentum” - whatever that means - and the word of an untrustworthy commissioner. The rumors were much more concrete when they said a sale would be done by opening day. You can believe it’s happening if you want. I don’t have to and won’t without actual evidence
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I tell you what, this is more honest and less insulting than the actual letter
- 31 replies
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- derek falvey
- jim pohlad
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(and 4 more)
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I'm thinking that at least two of three of Lopez/Ryan/Ober are gone by the start of next year. I tend to the more pessimistic viewpoint of a quick rebuild. If it turns out that way, then they need to devise some ways to get all these guys turns in the major league rotation. In this situation it's a true evaluation year, so treat it that way. They shouldn't be locked into a traditional 5 man rotation in that case. Get creative - 6 man rotation, cycle between AAA and the majors in some systematic way, piggyback - the best thing they can hope to get out of the 2026 season is information, so use it accordingly. And let them fail, let them learn. Stretch out the guys showing promise as a starter. Find back-of-the-bullpen quality traits and develop them in the guys that aren't. And if they show neither? Let them marinate in AAA if it makes sense, or give them a chance to show value in long relief depending on stuff, age, options, etc. For the guys you've been evaluating in your system, maybe you've already earmarked them as relief material (Raya?) and you can put them in the bullpen from the get go. Hopefully by the end of the year you can see both a rotation and an actual bullpen starting to form. Whatever's left of Sands and Topa can keep the bullpen afloat with what I'd assume will be a DFA conga line of Jay Jackson-type signings. But get them out of the way as soon as some young guys are showing bullpen promise. A noncompetitive season doesn't have to be a wasted one if they treat it right
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Per Dan Hayes: Keaschall and Hatch up, Keirsey and Davis optioned to St Paul
- 111 replies
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- trades
- designated for assignment
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Now that they have a surplus of lefthanded outfielders at least within shouting distance of the main roster, trades for Larnach and/or Wallner need to be considered this offseason. My preference would be for the more expensive Larnach to go, but Wallner could've been the position player version of Varland (pre-arb, but netting a real return) if he hadn't fallen off a cliff for the better part of this year. Now it would be selling low. But someone needs to move to balance out the roster a bit
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Every team produces jack squat from their international free agent system? I understand that catcher is a premium position for a reason. But the Twins have a serious lack of prospects up and down the system and haven't done a good job addressing it (at least until this deadline; as the dust has settled the catchers have been some of my favorite acquisitions). I just hope they're not paying $10MM for their version of Vasquez or Maldonado next year. If the selloff continues into this offseason, I hope finding a high-minors catcher or two is a real priority

