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The Great Hambino

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Everything posted by The Great Hambino

  1. The Great Hambino
    I wouldn't want them to for a full year. I think they could get by with a piggyback for a spot in the rotation, but probably not much more than that
  2. The Great Hambino
    I don't think they'd have to worry about only having 4 relievers too often because a) I don't think Ober actually gets reduced into a piggyback role b) Pablo will be back eventually and c) they're already riding the DFA merry-go-round. They can always cycle through that if the need an extra fresh arm for a couple days
  3. The Great Hambino
    If that's true, then it seems to me that would mean it's an even nicer time to be a seller in the trade market
  4. The Great Hambino
    The rest of this year is about evaluation of the young pitchers. If nothing else, piggybacking gives you more appearances to use for evaluation. They have an entire offseason to get stretched out to a traditional starting role if they are identified as a 2026 rotation piece - or maybe to focus on refining their two best pitches and ratcheting up the velocity if they get identified as a better fit as a core bullpen piece.
  5. The Great Hambino
    The more I think about it, the more I think the impending lockout is going to make for a really weird market for player transactions this offseason as well as during the 2026 season. How do you plan for a competitive window if there's a real risk you're not even sure there will be much of a season, if any, in 2027? And even if there were, it's feeling like there's going to be substantial changes that will alter how rosters are constructed. I wonder if this might accelerate that window for some teams so they get more aggressive in 2026; it may also push teams to consider a longer-term rebuild if they think they're a couple of years away. Does this influence the direction the Twins take over these next couple of years regardless of ownership? Is it worth it trying to quickly rebuild a core around the Lopez/Ryan timeline if you might lose a big chunk of that 2027 season? What even happens to player contracts in a lost season? If I'm Falvey and ownership is letting me make the call, I might aim for 2028 if I'm otherwise on the fence given all the uncertainty. If more teams to decide to go all in for 2026, Lopez and Ryan become even more valuable in the trade market
  6. The Great Hambino
    I remember when they did this a couple months back. Interestingly, they also asked who they didn't want to play for, and Rocco registered zero votes in that poll as well. More than 20 managers received a vote in that poll (although a few were technically former managers at the time). I guess Rocco gets a big ol' shrug from players. Seems about right
  7. The Great Hambino
    Given the complete lack of leverage the Twins had in moving Correa, I think they did pretty okay for themselves. They didn't blink when Houston wanted half his salary covered plus another major leaguer. Turning that into roughly a third of his salary covered and a player coming back this way - even if it might have been the least valuable player in the entire Houston organization - I think was a case of making some chicken salad out of ... you know
  8. The Great Hambino
    I suppose that's true. I guess I don't have much faith in the owners to a) bargain with the players in good faith, seeing how their commissioner is has been trying to subvert the players under the guise of outreach, and b) be able to come to an agreement on revenue sharing within their own ranks It seems like Manfred has almost embraced a lockout as a negotiating tactic, but a protracted lockout in 2027 doesn't pair very well with shopping all your media contracts for a 2028 renewal. I don't think media companies were super stoked about NHL TV rights coming out of their lost season. Is Roku the new Outdoor Life Network?
  9. The Great Hambino
    In theory, yes. A cap with a high floor benefits the rank and file at the expense of a few elites. But if I'm the players, I'm not trusting that the owners at the bottom end of the spectrum will all of a sudden start investing in their teams if there's a cap in place. I've yet to hear Manfred or anyone associated with the owners mention a salary floor, outside of the obscenely insulting $100MM floor they proposed in the last round of CBA talks. The NFL and NBA have salary floors approaching 90% of the cap. Their proposal was less than 50% If I'm the players, I agree to a cap (most of the league is treating the luxury tax like a cap anyway, might as well make it official). But I tell the owners that it must come with a similarly high floor. With a high floor, higher minimum salaries and a shorter path to free agency are necessary. Revenue sharing would have to be reformed to make that happen, but if I'm the players, I tell the owners to share revenue however they see fit as long as they meet the parameters of the cap and floor. If the owners want the players to give in on a cap, then the Pirates of the world can no longer be allowed to act the way they do.
  10. The Great Hambino
    I could just as easily say that you're not allowing for any further development from a pitcher whose role significantly changed not too long ago while expecting further development from someone who really isn't that much younger, all while not accounting for the fact that Varland is currently providing more value. If both players stagnate and don't develop any further, then Varland has much more value to give because he is already producing that value. Roden is currently producing none. He has to develop more just to catch up to Varland.
  11. The Great Hambino
    Have you considered the possibility that disagreeing with you and being irrational are not the same thing? I am not saying that is a miracle. I've said nothing even remotely close to that. I've stated that is has already happened and therefore not some sort of projection. Of course it's relevant that one player's success at the MLB has already been shown and the other's is purely projection. You think Varland has peaked in value. I don't. That's a reasonable disagreement. I think Roden's ceiling is lower than you do. That's a reasonable disagreement. I'd feel differently if he could be a viable centerfielder, but my understanding is that's not in the cards. Rojas is the wild card that will ultimately determine the trade. But to act as if no one could possibly rationally disagree with you is ... well, it's something.
  12. The Great Hambino
    Convenient you leave out that the reliever is less than two years removed from converting from starter to reliever, and is the only one that has actually shown success at the major league level. I'm not assuming zero development from Roden, but you're ignoring that he has some catching up to do. Reasonable minds can differ, but spare me the lectures about rationality
  13. The Great Hambino
    Interesting point about the abundance of single A options to scratch that baseball itch. I'd thought about the transplant issue, but that doesn't seem to hurt them as much in other sports It's hard for me to really tell if a major league team could succeed in Florida because they've never really had a proper stadium. They've had an indoor driving range (trying to diversify my insults of the Trop), a football stadium, and the weirdest stadium built since Camden Yards changed the game
  14. The Great Hambino
    I highly, highly doubt anyone would be saying that if he hadn't been traded. I don't think that was even on the radar until he started showing up in trade rumors. I think the consensus would've been, "At least they have Varland to rebuild the bullpen around"
  15. The Great Hambino
    I disagree. I think he showed closer potential this year. I might be higher on him than others, but that's not a Minnesotan bias. It's a wrestler bias. But that's neither here nor there
  16. The Great Hambino
    Those "fairly cheap" veterans are still more expensive than Varland. And it's not like his trade value was vanishing at the deadline. In fact, he could easily have had more value at future deadlines if he spent 2026 establishing himself as a closer, which I believe he has the stuff and mentality to do. They acted as if this was their last chance to recoup value on him We're just going to have to agree to disagree on Roden. I think that's an incredibly optimistic percentage that assumes no future development on Varland's end
  17. The Great Hambino
    If they go this route (my gut says they will), then Raya, Culpepper, Prielipp, and Rojas should be part of the mix as well at some point in the season. They need to give all of them a look so a more permanent rotation and some semblance of a bullpen can be identified by the end of the year. Adams and Ohl could be in this mix as well to varying degrees. I don't see them as having real shots as permanent fixtures in the rotation (maybe they could be developed into long relief or mid-leverage bullpen options?), but they still should be there to fill out the rotation as needed if some of the above are better served in AAA or injuries start to rack up
  18. The Great Hambino
    All those things are also true about Varland, except he'd be cheaper and with more long-term control. If the Twins had received a Varland clone in one of these trades, we'd be stoked that they at least had a young pre-arb guy with closer potential to build the future bullpen around. My biggest issue with this trade is they acted seemingly out of an urgency that they didn't need to have. This trade just wasn't necessary. It's the kind you make only if you're getting a Godfather offer. Since I see Roden as a low-ceiling redundancy, this value has to come pretty much entirely from Rojas. I'm not going to pretend to know anything about him other than what I've read, but is his median outcome better than what Varland is now? It better be well past that for this to make sense.
  19. The Great Hambino
    Not a bad overall list relative to each other. In my mind, they should get a demerit on every trade that wasn't an expiring contract because, at least from the outside looking in, they didn't need to make those trades. Your trade partners in those trades are doing so because they have an immediate need. In these circumstances, you should be shooting to receive a premium above what the on-paper value would suggest - you should have the leverage. In practice, that's not going to happen with every trade. But Gleeman made a good point that there wasn't one single trade that you can look at and say "Wow, the Twins got great value there" relative to on-paper value. If you're making nine trades, you should be able to say that about at least one of them, right? And the Outman trade should be an F minus. If he needs to be "working on things" at AAA at the age of 28, then he should probably be playing overseas or in independent ball. I honestly would've preferred a complex league flier in return for Stewart
  20. The Great Hambino
    They've spent their entire existence in a barely-accessible warehouse. That has to have played a part in tamping down attendance. And then there's Florida itself. For whatever reason, it seems like baseball is wildly popular in that state at every level ... except for the local teams at the highest level. That's always struck me as odd.
  21. The Great Hambino
    Define VERY strong correlation 4 of the last 8 World Series participants had losing records against >.500 teams in the regular season, including 2 champs
  22. The Great Hambino
    Luke Keaschall, you're my hero
  23. The Great Hambino
    There are currently only 6 teams with winning records against >.500 teams, and two of them are only a game above .500. No one in the NL West is, not even the Dodgers. It's a really tough threshold to reach
  24. The Great Hambino
    Respect the CF for giving it the ol' college try even though it hit the batters eye like 12 feet up
  25. The Great Hambino
    Good piece of hitting from Jeffers
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