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big dog

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Everything posted by big dog

  1. big dog
    Who are you, and what have you done with Chief??
  2. big dog
    Down goes Anderson! Down goes Anderson! An all-time classic. I'm sure he'd rather be remembered for the batting title, though.
  3. big dog
    I don't believe the qualifying offer was actually a thing until 2012. https://www.mlb.com/news/history-of-mlb-qualifying-offer-decisions-c300602464 So I don't think expecting the team to have done that is reasonable. A better trade, however, would have been nice. Or even just keeping JJ Hardy instead of dumping him to be an All-Star in Baltimore
  4. big dog
    Garver was hurt before he left the Twins. That's why he caught fewer than 60 games in 2021. There was a real question as to whether he would catch in 2022, and he didn't.
  5. big dog
    And it is basically an equivalent pinch-hitter, except it can't walk to the plate by itself. Smaller strike zone, though, so that's a potential plus.
  6. big dog
    Serious question- I'm confused about this quote. We traded Garver, who only caught 59 games in 2021 and has caught 67 games in the three years since. Ben Rortvedt has just completed his first full season in the majors, throwing out 15% of runners and hitting barely better than Vazquez. Is that our "fantastic catching corps" or am I missing someone?
  7. big dog
    When someone leads with "a fish out of water" it immediately makes me think of eels.
  8. big dog
    Regarding Suns and owner Mat Ishiba, here's a quote from John Hollinger in The Athletic in reference to last year's trade for Bradley Beale and the interest in now trading for Jimmy Butler: Headline: As Jimmy Butler trade rumors swirl, Mat Ishbia and Suns keep chasing short-term highs "They have one of the NBA's most creative front offices when it comes to finding new and different ways in which to mortgage their future." link, requires TA or New York Times subscription https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6079964/2025/01/22/jimmy-butler-trade-rumors-suns-mat-ishbia/
  9. big dog
    Or "thinking of asking to prom".
  10. big dog
    Sorry if I was unclear- I meant that your presumption that the extra innings probably didn’t affect the season statistic looked correct. It’s a bad outcome no matter what. There is no chance I’m jumping on the “Best Bullpen” bus until mid-August at the earliest.
  11. big dog
    OK, I haven't done a math problem in a day or two. Let's try this one. The Twins played 14 extra-inning games and had 24 extra innings in them, so those runners were 24/83 = 12% of the inherited runners- I assume they count as inherited, but I don't know that for sure. They lost 9 of those games so at least 38% of them scored...probably. Five of those games went more than one inning, so multiple phantom runners could have scored in the same loss, and of course phantom runners could have also scored in games the Twins won. I have zero interest in figuring out what that number actually is. If those 9 were the only ones who scored, then in other situations there were (203 – 24 = 179) inherited runners and (83-9 = 74) non-phantom inherited runners who scored, for a 38% rate, basically the same as the overall 41% rate. So let's make a wild assumption that 75% of the phantom runners scored and see how it affects the math. 24 phantoms score 18 times. That means that (83 – 18 = 65) of the 179 non-phantoms scored, for a rate of 36%. It looks to me like the presumption is correct- that rate's possibly worse because of phantom runner disasters, but it's bad if we ignore them too.
  12. big dog
    Yeah, I'm counting on Stewart for at least 15 quality innings but only six weeks or so on the active roster. Too bad, but the track record is brutal.
  13. big dog
    I was a kid waiting to get glasses at an optometry shop in St. Paul and a man walked in wearing red bellbottoms and a fancy coat. When it was my turn for a fitting the person helping me told me that was Rich Reese, and the Twins were trying to get him to wear glasses to see if it helped his hitting. This was probably in 1972, so I guess the answer was it didn't.
  14. big dog
    My floor for ERod is he unfortunately gets injured year after year and we never get to find out what he might have been. If he can just get off the injury bus it will sure be interesting to see what happens.
  15. big dog
    Oh for heavens sake. You are the one making a claim. I’m trying to get you to back up your claim. I shouldn’t have to disprove whatever foolishness someone wants to post by looking for counter evidence. You won’t even clarify what you are claiming, much less support it. Never mind.
  16. big dog
    Then clarify your terms. Of the MLB draft picks who make the majors...then define your criteria. You can cherry pick data from current Twins; is that "typical"? I don't know that comparisons to All-Stars in one year are relevant, but if it is, use that as your criteria. Nothing about that seems typical. Is an All-Star a great player, a mediocre player having a great year, a mediocre player having the best year of anyone on his team and someone had to be picked? If you are going to criticize people's opinions using data, don't just throw out some numerical thing that's based on who knows what and claim it's a real finding, i.e. it's typical. How many of the top ten draft picks in the last ten years where high school picks, and how long did it take each of them to reach the majors? That would help us give a sense of what might be typical for evaluating our top picks.
  17. big dog
    Typically? Typically, high school draft picks don't make MLB at all. If you are going to toss out things as empirical facts, try to define what you mean. What percentage of high schoolers drafted in the first ten picks make MLB within 4 years of being drafted? What's the answer to that question?
  18. big dog
    Steers had a very successful first year, no question. Hopefully he can repeat that in year 3.
  19. big dog
    The Reds seem to be trying to upgrade the positions Steer plays, though he's been good, and it doesn't sound like they count on CES. Cano is an MLB reliever, Povich might make it. I don't think any of these losses on their own are disasters, but giving them up for two guys with a combined Twins lifetime WAR of 0.3 was terrible. Happy to trade players but we gotta get players.
  20. big dog
    I congratulate both players on getting this far in a very tough profession and I wish them both even more success this year. Merry Christmas to all.
  21. big dog
    Thanks- that's where they chose to play him, but I wonder what they feel about him going forward. If they think he's CF but had him play 1B in order to give others some time (or if it was all after the arm injury)- that's a good thing. If they think he's a 1B but they really needed a CF- that's a different thing. Just wondering if there's any intel out there on best fit.
  22. big dog
    Thanks. You mentioned defensive versatility several times, but what are the positions where people think he's most likely to contribute?
  23. big dog
    OK, first we have to get the Marlins management team somewhere where they catch malaria. Then when they get the night-sweat fever dreams, we trade them Larnach for Luzardo, all the while whispering "sign it, this is only a dream". Other than that, no chance. How many teams would top that offer for Luzardo? Ten? Twenty?
  24. big dog
    "Modern Twins fans might be interested to learn that Baseball Reference lists Jacque Jones and Eddie Rosario as two of the ten most similar players to Hisle. That comparison should give recent fans an idea of Hisle’s baseball abilities." I think that wildly understates Hisle's abilities- I really don't get how BR could make that reference, unless it was listing Twins outfielders. Hisle was a much better hitter with a much better peak, especially looking at his Twins years. Hisle: a six-year stretch (5 Twins, 1 Brewers) of OPS+ ranging from 114 to 153, with an average of 133. His worst year was 111. Four of the six years were over 130. Career: 123 Rosario: his best streak was four years ranging between 107 and 119 (his best year ever). His best stretch was 33 games with the Braves when he had 134, but his total for the full year was 99. Career: 100. Gedouttahere. Jones: best year ever was 123 (Hisle's career average). Next-best was 108. Career: 98. Seriously? Larry Hisle had a really, really good stretch of six years as a very good major league hitter. I'll wait for the Rosario Fan Club to remind me of Eddie's occasional great plays, neglecting to list his various throws to the wrong base/dugout. All three of them were respectable outfielders- Hisle might have been a little lighter in the field, but the bat played really well for a long time. I don't get that BR comp at all.
  25. big dog
    Was there really an MVP on a team that was barely above .500? A team that badly underperformed when it mattered the most? Correa had a great half-year, but it was a half-year. Jax pitched 70 innings. Are you going to argue Castro had a better than sort of good year? We had guys with great stretches. Somebody wins a participation trophy. I honestly don't see much to celebrate this year. Oh wait, Buxton played a hundred games! Definitely gets a participation trophy. Just a whole lot of disappointment here. OK, at least this isn't as bad as the year Ron Coomer was our All-Star, I'll give you that. I'm not usually very negative, have never even called the Pohlads cheap or Rocco an idiot, but this was a devastatingly disappointing season. I don't see much valuable about anyone in 2024. Without Correa (for the whole year instead of just half) we would have...also missed the playoffs. Even the White Sox can pick an MVP, that doesn't mean it automatically has to be celebrated.
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