Cody Christie

Baseball’s grueling 162-game schedule culminates in a sprint to the finish line during the postseason. If the Twins get in, do they have the right recipe to make a run in October? Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports There are no dominant teams in baseball this season as it is on pace to be the first season since 2014 where no club will finish with 100 wins. The last season without a 100-win team saw the Giants and Royals face off in the World Series, and both teams failed to win 90 games in the regular season. Only six 100-win teams have won the World Series since 1995. Last season, the Rangers scuffled their way into the playoffs and found a way to get hot at the right time. Baseball is different in October, and some teams built for regular season success don’t have the recipe to win when the postseason begins. MLB’s playoff format lends itself to parity, especially with more Wild Card spots. Baseball is a game of individual match-ups disguised as a team sport. In other major sports, one superstar player can carry a team to postseason success. Baseball doesn’t fit that mold. The Angels had three inner-circle Hall of Fame members in recent seasons (Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, and Albert Pujols) and failed to find any postseason success. The Twins need to find a way to qualify for October, and then they need to ensure their recipe for success can be optimized. Starting Pitching Recipe Minnesota’s top two starting pitchers, Pablo López and Bailey Ober, match up well against any opponent's top rotation options. Things get murky for the Twins, especially with Joe Ryan out of the picture. Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa would be the team’s other starting options, and both have produced inconsistent performances in the season’s final month. It’s also important to note that the Twins' free fall in recent weeks puts them at a disadvantage. Some teams will be able to line up their best pitchers for a potential Wild Card Series, but the Twins might need to use their top arms to qualify for the postseason over the final weekend. Ober is scheduled to start on Tuesday against Miami, which lines him up to pitch the season’s final game on Sunday versus Baltimore. The Twins will likely need to win both of those games. López started on Sunday, making him available again for Friday’s game against the Orioles. In this scenario, López and Ober would be unavailable for Game 1 of the Wild Card Series. López could start Game 2 on regular rest, but Ober would be on short rest for Game 3 if he pitches on Sunday. Offensive Recipe Minnesota’s offense has scuffled in recent weeks to the point where the Twins rank among the league’s worst-hitting groups. Since August 1st, the Twins have the AL’s third-lowest wRC+ (78), with only the White Sox and Royals rankings lower. Over that same stretch, Minnesota’s power disappeared, with an SLG, OPS, and wOBA ranking 28th overall. The Twins have scored three runs or fewer in ten of the 21 games played this month. It has been painful to watch, especially on nights when the pitching staff has held the opposition to three runs or fewer (eight times). Playoff baseball is a different animal compared to what batters see in the regular season. Home runs become critical as teams rely on their top starting pitchers and relievers. There are rarely innings where a team can string three or four hits to score a run. Instead, teams must get a bloop and a blast to push across multiple runs. Despite some September struggles, the Twins offense is hitting the ball hard with 37% of the time, ranking 17th in MLB. Minnesota also continues to pull the ball at a 43.0% rate, the fourth-highest total in the AL during September. The team's ability to hit the ball hard to the pull side might result in more luck in October. Bullpen Recipe Twins manager Rocco Baldelli has gotten plenty of criticism for his bullpen usage in the season’s second half. However, he has few levers to pull in an untrustworthy group. Fans witnessed the bullpen cough up multiple leads in Cleveland before using nine pitchers for a 12-inning marathon win in Boston. Griffin Jax has been the team’s best reliever this season and has shown some vulnerabilities in the second half. Jhoan Durán and Cole Sands have also played important roles, but a playoff team needs more than three relief options. Minnesota has relied on Jax for most of the season, and he might be showing signs of depleting down the stretch. His -0.28 WPA is the third-lowest total this month, with only Ronny Henriquez and Cole Irvin ranking lower. Some of that negative WPA results from the Twins forcing him into challenging situations in recent weeks. Duran (0.57 WPA) and Sands (0.31 WPA) are joined by Scott Blewett (0.34 WPA) as the trio of relievers with a positive WPA this month. Relievers work in small sample sizes, so reading too much into the bullpen’s September struggles is tough. There is some hope that Chris Paddack and Justin Topa will rejoin the team this week, but the team is running out of games for those upgrades to make an impact. The Twins have a large task facing them this week, with their playoff spot out of their own control. Thankfully, there are some positive signs among the team’s core group even as the losses have compiled. Minnesota’s recipe might not be fully functional in the regular season, but the playoffs offer a chance for a fresh start. If the Twins get in, can they find the right recipe to win in October? Does it help that there are no dominant teams in 2024? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Baseball’s final week of the season can produce drama. Four AL teams, including three Central foes, are vying for two Wild Card spots. So, how do the teams stack up, and what are the spiraling Twins' chances? Image courtesy of Matt Blewett, Jay Biggerstaff, Brad Rempel, Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports As the final week of the 2024 season unfolds, the American League Wild Card race is heating up, and it’s a battle few saw coming. The Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, and Seattle Mariners are locked in a fierce four-team food fight for the final two Wild Card spots. With October looming, every game and every pitch could swing the momentum, and the drama is just beginning. Kansas City Royals (Current Record: 82-74) FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 69.6% Remaining Schedule: 3 Games @ Washington, 3 Games @ Atlanta The Royals have been freefalling in recent weeks, with a 7-11 record in September. Entering play on Sept. 1, FanGraphs had them at a 79.5% chance to make the playoffs, which has only dropped slightly despite their poor play; they can thank the Twins for that. Their final week schedule is tough, because they have to go on the road for six games, and they have a 37-38 record away from Kauffman Stadium. Few thought Kansas City would be in this position in 2024, and they have been one of baseball’s best stories throughout the season. In a weird schedule quirk, the Royals finish the season with three straight series against NL opponents, including two road series to end the year in Washington and Atlanta. The Nationals have the third-worst record in the NL and have been outscored by 100 runs. They've been playing solely for pride for multiple weeks, and they clearly don't have much of that; they just had to demote starting shortstop C.J. Abrams to the minor leagues after he stayed out until morning at a Chicago casino. This opponent might come precisely at the time when Kansas City desperately needs to get back on track. Atlanta is a much different story, as they need to track down the Mets or Diamondbacks over the final week to earn a playoff spot. That series figures to be a brawl, and makes the Royals' path to the postseason fairly perilous. They have ace lefty Cole Ragans pitching Tuesday night in Washington, and therefore, they'll have the option to use him again Sunday if a berth is on the line. Detroit Tigers (Current Record: 82-74) FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 69.2% Remaining Schedule: 3 vs. Tampa, 3 vs. Chicago (AL) The Tigers have moved from an afterthought in the AL to a serious contender, due to a hot stretch since the trade deadline. As a reminder, the Tigers were active sellers at the deadline, dealing away Jack Flaherty, Mark Canha, Andrew Chafin, and Carson Kelly. Detroit responded with a 17-11 record (.607 W-L%) in August and have played at an even hotter pace in September, with a 12-6 record (.667 W-L%). On Aug. 1, FanGraphs pegged the Tigers as having a 0.5% chance of making the playoffs. It’s been an unbelievable run, no matter what happens this week. Detroit starts the final week by facing Tampa at home. The Rays have hovered around the .500 mark in a tough AL East with two strong teams at the top. Tampa is pesky even when they struggle and are 11-10 this month, so they should provide a competitive series, despite not being in the playoff race. The schedule makers inadvertently gave the Tigers a massive gift on the season’s final weekend--one that might help them secure a playoff berth. Three games against the Chicago White Sox, the worst baseball team in history, should allow Detroit to end the year on a high note. Chicago has five wins in September, more than they accumulated in July or August. Minnesota fans have to hope the White Sox can steal one game in the series. Likely AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal pitches Tuesday, just like Ragans, and can pitch twice this week if the team needs him Sunday. Minnesota Twins (Current Record: 81-75) FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 54.7% Remaining Schedule 3 vs. Miami, 3 vs. Baltimore The Twins have posted a .500 record or above in every month of the season, except for September. On Sept. 1, FanGraphs projected the Twins’ playoff odds at 91.7%, with a 20% chance to still win the AL Central. Cleveland clinched the division over the weekend, and Minnesota has seen their playoff chances shrink significantly. After a frustrating series in Boston, the Twins find themselves on the outside looking in for the final spot. Minnesota also has arguably the toughest remaining strength of schedule between these four teams. A three-game series against Miami allows the Twins to put themselves back into the playoff picture. The Marlins are the NL’s worst team this season, and they have been outscored by over 220 runs. Minnesota is projected to start Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, and David Festa in the three-game set that may very well decide their playoff fate. In the year's final series, the Twins will face the Orioles, who will likely have little to play for in the three-game set. Baltimore is all but locked into the top Wild Card spot, and will have an opportunity to line up their playoff rotation and rest some of their regular players. The Twins must take advantage of a lesser version of the Orioles. Ober could pitch Sunday, as well as Tuesday, and Pablo López will pitch Friday or Saturday, assuming the weekend games still matter. Seattle Mariners (Current Record: 80-76) FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 6.1% Remaining Schedule: 3 @ Houston, 3 vs. Oakland Poor play by the Twins and Royals has thrust the Mariners back into the playoff picture. Seattle played sub-.500 ball in July and August, before a modest September surge that might save their playoff hopes. When the month started, Seattle had a 7.3% chance of making the playoffs, and they're more or less in the same spot now. After a heartbreaking loss on Sunday, the Mariners will need help from the AL Central contenders while facing two division foes who know them well. The Mariners have done surprisingly well against the Astros this season, with a 6-4 record heading into their final three-game set. However, they haven’t faced each other since mid-July, and Houston has played significantly better in the second half of the season. It will be a tough series, especially for a team 10 games below .500 on the road. Seattle ends the year at home, with a three-game series against an Oakland team that has gone 3-7 in its last 10 contests. These two teams know each other well, with the Mariners holding a 6-4 advantage so far in 2024. The Twins find themselves in an interesting situation, with three teams standing between them and a playoff spot. Sunday's doubleheader double whammy also means the Twins don't control their own fate. Based on their head-to-head matchups this season, the Twins hold the tiebreaker against all three teams, which might turn out to be the difference between making or missing the playoffs, but they have to play well over their final two series to make those tiebreakers matter. How will the final week play out for the AL Wild Card contenders? Add your record and playoff predictions in the comments, below. View full article

Over the last two seasons, Bailey Ober has established himself as one of the American League’s best starting pitchers. The Twins have seen few pitchers of Ober’s caliber come through the system over the last two decades. Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports It can be challenging for fans of any organization to look on the bright side when a team is In the middle of a frustrating stretch of games. Fingers get pointed at the players, the manager, and the ownership group for various reasons. However, one thing has become abundantly clear in the season’s second half– Bailey Ober is one of the American League’s best starting pitchers. The Twins drafted Ober in the 12th round of the 2017 MLB Draft from the College of Charleston. He fits a specific type of pitcher this front office has targeted in drafting and developing. He’s a tall, right-handed pitcher from a lesser-known college who can add velocity and improve his pitch mix. During the 2020 season, Ober worked on his strength, conditioning, and pitching mechanics to increase his velocity and put himself on the prospect map. Ober made his big-league debut during the 2021 season with mixed results. In 92 1/3 innings, he posted a 4.19 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and 9.4 K/9. He improved during the 2022 season, with his ERA (3.21) and WHIP (1.05) dropping. However, he was limited to less than 60 innings as he bounced up and down from Triple-A. Ober has established himself at the big-league level over the last two seasons. Since 2023, he ranks 10th among AL starting pitchers in fWAR. His BB/9, K/9, BABIP, and LOB% rank in the top five among AL starters, and his WPA is ahead of pitchers like Pablo López, Luis Castillo, and Kevin Gausman. He’s in an elite company and seems to be finding another level in 2024. So, what does it mean to be homegrown? Many fans will argue over what it truly means to be homegrown. In recent years, the Twins have added Joe Ryan, who had yet to make his big-league debut but had been drafted and developed in the Rays system. He’s continued to develop as a pitcher since joining the organization, but Minnesota didn’t draft him. For this article, the pitchers below were drafted and developed in the Twins organization. Here are some of the other homegrown options for the Twins over the last two decades. Homegrown Option 1: José Berríos The Twins drafted Berríos with the 32nd overall pick in the 2012 MLB Draft out of high school in Puerto Rico. He quickly became a top-100 prospect and peaked as a consensus top-30 prospect entering the 2016 season. Berríos spent parts of six seasons in a Twins uniform and was selected to two All-Star teams. In over 780 innings, he posted a 4.08 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP while accumulating 10.0 WAR with two seasons of 3.5 WAR or higher. During his Twins tenure, he was considered among the AL’s best-starting pitchers, so he’s the most recent homegrown pitcher at a similar level to Ober. Homegrown Option 2: Kyle Gibson Gibson was selected by the Twins with the 22nd pick in the 2009 MLB Draft from the University of Missouri. (Pay no attention to the future Hall of Fame outfielder taken shortly after him). Gibson was never an All-Star with the Twins, but he compiled solid numbers over seven seasons. He posted a 4.52 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP in over 1000 innings. That doesn’t tell the whole story of his Twins tenure. He led the team in rWAR during the 2015 season and finished second during the 2018 season behind Eddie Rosario. Gibson likely ranks behind Berríos in the homegrown rankings, but he’s managed to pitch 12 seasons and make an All-Star team. Homegrown Option 3: Scott Baker The Twins took Baker with their second-round pick in 2003 from Oklahoma State University. He pitched 958 innings across seven seasons with the Twins and posted a 4.15 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP. His best season was in 2008 when he posted a 3.45 ERA in 172 1/3 innings and finished second on the team in rWAR behind Joe Mauer. Baker fits the mold of the previous front office regime with a low strikeout rate and the ability to pound the zone with strikes. He outperformed expectations but ranks behind Gibson and Berríos. Other pitchers are potentially on their way to joining the names listed above. David Festa and Zebby Matthews have shot up prospect rankings based on their 2024 performance. Minnesota has other pitchers in the farm system who are expected to impact the big-league roster in the coming years, including Marco Raya, Andrew Morris, and Charlee Soto. There are no guarantees that any of these arms will be as good as Ober, so it’s time for fans to appreciate how good he has been for the Twins. Is Ober the best homegrown pitcher in recent memory? Should any other pitchers be in the conversation? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota's superstar shortstop has missed time in each of the last two seasons due to plantar fasciitis. Does his recurring injury point to the Twins needing to make a long-term defensive switch? Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Everything was going great for Carlos Correa during the first half of the 2024 season. He had recovered from the plantar fasciitis that plagued him during the previous year, and hit .308/.377/.520 with 16 doubles and 13 home runs. Correa was named to the AL All-Star team for the first time in a Twins uniform, and he'd helped the Twins fight back from a disastrous start to the season to put the team into playoff contention. It might have been the high point of his Twins' tenure--and then, that blasted foot thing happened again. The Twins placed Correa on the injured list coming out of the All-Star break for treatment of plantar fasciitis in his right foot, the opposite of the one that flared up in 2023. At the time, it was seen as precautionary rest--the kind he didn’t get last season. The Twins and Correa spoke optimistically about him returning quickly to help the team in the second half. Unfortunately, the injury took longer than expected, including a new treatment that Correa called “painful to the point it would bring tears to my eyes.” After a two-month stint on the IL, he returned to the Twins, but he's clearly playing at something less than 100% health. Over the last two seasons, age and his growing injury history have changed Correa’s long-term defensive outlook. He continues to provide value at shortstop, with an overall Outs Above Average rating and Arm Strength that each rank in the 80th percentile or higher. One of the reasons the Twins were willing to sign Correa to a lucrative long-term deal was because of the value he provides on both sides of the ball. Few guys can play one of baseball’s most demanding positions throughout their careers. It might be time for the Twins to start considering whether a position switch is in the best long-term interest of Correa and his health. One of the most common positional switches for shortstops is to move to third base. Correa was willing to move to third base with the Mets, before New York backed out of their deal due to concerns over his injury-repaired ankle. The Twins could consider moving Correa to third, but that position might inflict of the same wear and tear, because of how baseball teams now position third basemen and what they ask of those players in terms of range. His plantar fasciitis may continue to flare up at the hot corner, and the club might need to consider other options. Another potential option is to move Correa to first base, a position with demonstrably lighter defensive responsibilities. Minnesota has seen firsthand how valuable first base defense can be this year, with Carlos Santana expected to win the AL Gold Glove. An argument can be made that the Twins should bring back Santana next season, because of what he has provided to the club. However, the Twins have shown a propensity to add veteran position players for one year and let them walk for the following season (e.g., Michael A. Taylor, Donovan Solano, and Gio Urshela). Given that the team also faces severe financial constraints this winter, first figures to be open. It seems unlikely Correa would want to move to first base, but it might be in the best long-term interest of his health. Hall of Fame shortstop Ernie Banks extended his career and ensured his own longevity with a mid-career move to first base. Correa, a student of the game well aware of the unforgiving aging curve of the modern game, might find that example instructive. So, who would be the replacement for Correa at shortstop? Brooks Lee is the natural choice, since he has primarily played shortstop throughout his collegiate and professional career. His defense at shortstop is worse than Correa's, but he is younger and has a high baseball IQ. Fielding Run Value and Outs Above Average currently peg him as roughly average there, but the sample is tiny. He has shown some flaws at the position, and his defensive shortcomings might be more evident over a 162-game season. On the other hand, he's looked great going to his right, and made some impressive plays. The Twins have Correa under team control for at least four more seasons, and a defensive switch has to be on the table at some point. If his feet keep bothering him, Correa must be open to moving to a less demanding defensive position. The Twins have a viable alternative to him, si next spring could be the right time for that shift. Do the Twins need to consider a switch with Correa for next season? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota is in the middle of one of its most challenging weeks of the season. However, one win back in April might have saved its playoff hopes. Baseball, with its 162-game marathon of a regular season, often tempts fans and players to believe that early-season games aren’t as critical as those down the stretch. After all, it’s a long grind, and a single game in April can feel like a blip in the grand scheme of things. Yet, in the modern playoff structure, every game carries weight, and sometimes, even a seemingly unimportant April afternoon can hold immense consequences for the postseason race. For the Twins, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi identified one game in a doubleheader against the Detroit Tigers that could be the game that saved their season. On that day, the Tigers entered the eighth inning holding a 3-to-2 lead, poised to hand the Twins a significant divisional loss. Detroit had an expected winning percentage of over 70% entering that inning. Carlos Santana and Kyle Farmer flew out to start the frame, raising the Tigers' expected winning percentage to 80% with only four outs remaining. It looked like it was going to be a heartbreaking loss for the Twins. Alex Kirilloff was due up for the Twins, and with a lefty on the mound (Tyler Holton), the Twins decided to bring in Ryan Jeffers as a pinch hitter. Detroit countered and brought in a righty, Shelby Miller, to face Jeffers. In the at-bat, Jeffers got ahead in the count 2-0 before smashing a game-tying home run. From there, the game got even more interesting. The game went to extra innings, with neither team scoring in the 10th frame. Jeffers knocked in the go-ahead run with a single in the top of the 11th, but Detroit tied it in the bottom half of the inning. Byron Buxton started on second base at the top of the 12th, and Detroit walked Willi Castro on four pitches. Christian Vázquez attempted a sacrifice bunt, but the Tigers messed up the play and didn’t record an out. Austin Martin walked with the bases loaded to give the Twins a one-run lead. Kyle Farmer and Carlos Santana struck out looking for the first two outs of the innings, so Jeffers was up again in a prominent spot. He hit a ground ball between shortstop and third base, resulting in an E5 and three runs scoring. Matt Wallner capped off the frame with a three-run bomb to put an exclamation point on the win. At the time, it felt like just another game between two AL Central rivals. But as the season unfolds and the playoff picture sharpens, that one victory looms large. Heading into that game, the Tigers were right in the mix for the division lead, and with the AL Central as tightly contested as ever, each head-to-head matchup carried extra significance. Had the Tigers hung on for the win, they would currently own the tiebreaker over the Twins—a crucial factor in a season where tiebreakers have replaced Game 163 as the deciding factor between playoff teams. Even more, the Tigers would be just one game back in the loss column, keeping them within striking distance in the race for October. Instead, Minnesota emerged victorious, creating a buffer between themselves and Detroit that has endured for months. The two errors the Tigers committed in that game were a microcosm of how razor-thin the margins in baseball can be. What seemed like a typical game in April now looms as one of the most consequential days of the season for both clubs. Their ability to edge out Detroit in a key April contest for the Twins may ultimately prove the difference between a Wild Card spot and a missed opportunity. The Tigers’ missteps allowed Minnesota to seize a critical victory and the all-important tiebreaker in the season series. These small moments can ripple through the season and change its entire trajectory. April 13th was not just another game but a pivotal point for both teams. The AL Central race has been incredibly tight, with Minnesota and Detroit frequently battling for position in the standings. Every victory and loss is magnified, and as the season nears its conclusion, the small moments determine whether a team will be playing postseason baseball or watching from home. Has there been a more critical win for the Twins this season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota’s bullpen has been the center of attention because of the team’s recent struggles. The Twins hope a pitching duo returning from injury can provide a late-season boost. Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints As the Twins push toward October, their bullpen has been a point of emphasis in solidifying their postseason roster. A critical component of their strategy could involve welcoming back two key arms: Chris Paddack and Justin Topa. Both hurlers are progressing in their rehab journeys, and the team is hopeful their returns will provide much-needed stability to a bullpen that has seen its share of ups and downs. Paddack, who has been recovering from a right forearm strain, took a significant step forward by throwing his first bullpen session on Friday. This step marked a pivotal moment in his comeback, as Paddack’s potential to offer high-velocity, late-inning relief could be a game-changer. Last season, the Twins used Paddack as a reliever in October in his first action since returning from his second Tommy John surgery. He made two scoreless appearances in October while covering 3 2/3 innings with six strikeouts and no walks. “I can say, next homestand, ‘I want to push,’ and be ready to go for Baltimore or something like that, a little redemption from the beginning of the season,” Paddack said. “But if they want me ready for October, I'll nod my head and say, ‘All right, I'll be ready.’” Similarly, Topa, sidelined for months, threw a 30-pitch bullpen on Saturday. Topa joined the Twins this winter as part of the Jorge Polanco trade. Minnesota hoped he’d be a late-inning bullpen option for the entire season, but a knee injury in spring training has kept him sidelined for the entire year. If both pitchers continue to progress smoothly, they could be viable bullpen options come October. “Whatever it is, a handful of innings at the end of the year and then build that into a playoff push, see what happens -- I think for me, the silver lining is just to get back into games and finish the year healthy,” Topa said. “Have that platform to go into the offseason and get ready for next year.” The Twins have already shown a willingness to adjust their pitching staff, as seen with Louie Varland's transition from the starting rotation to the bullpen. Varland's stuff has ticked up in short bursts, and his velocity and aggressiveness can play up in critical situations. Unfortunately, he allowed six earned runs in one inning on Saturday, which will hurt his overall numbers for the season. Moving him into relief duties indicates that the Twins are committed to maximizing their best arms down the stretch. However, the bullpen hasn’t been without struggles. Jorge Alcala has battled inconsistency, and the usually dominant Jhoan Durán has faced uncharacteristic challenges. Durán, despite his electric stuff, has had issues in non-save situations, but there are still reasons to trust the team’s closer. The back of the Twins’ bullpen includes pitchers like Scott Blewett, Ronny Henriquez, and Michael Tonkin. That trio of pitchers likely won’t be trusted with innings in the playoffs, so the team needs to find reliable arms to help it win critical games. If Paddack and Topa can return to form, their presence could allow Rocco Baldelli to mix and match more effectively in late innings, easing the pressure on Duran and others. With his starter experience, Paddack could be an ideal fit for multi-inning outings. At the same time, Topa’s arsenal makes him a candidate for high-leverage matchups against both righties and lefties. As the regular season's final weeks unfold, the Twins' ability to get these key arms back in action could be a determining factor in their postseason success. What should the Twins expect from Paddack and Topa? Can they be reliable bullpen assets? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

On Saturday, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa were in the same lineup for the first time in the season’s second half. So, are the Twins optimizing their star players as they return from injury? Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports As the Twins enter the final stretch of their playoff push, they are navigating the return of two of their biggest stars, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa. Both players, having dealt with lingering injuries throughout the season, have been strategically slotted into the lower part of the lineup, a move that may seem surprising given their status. However, a deeper look at the Twins' strategy reveals a cautious yet calculated approach to managing their health. Buxton and Correa, normally fixtures at the top of the Twins' lineup, have returned to more modest spots in the batting order upon returning from injury. On Saturday, the two stars were slotted into the fifth and sixth spots in the batting order. Buxton has battled a hip injury in recent weeks, while Correa is playing through a painful bout of plantar fasciitis. By placing these stars in lower slots, manager Rocco Baldelli is signaling a desire to ease them back into the grind of regular play without putting too much immediate pressure on them. One significant factor in this lineup adjustment could be to provide the Twins with flexibility. By batting Buxton and Correa lower, Baldelli can remove them from games earlier if the situation allows. For a team aiming for October success, preserving the health of their stars down the stretch is crucial. Buxton has historically struggled to stay on the field, and Correa's foot condition has been a day-to-day concern. Giving them fewer plate appearances could reduce the risk of aggravating their injuries while allowing other, healthier players to step up. While their presence on the field offers a clear advantage from a talent standpoint, the emotional boost that typically accompanies the return of cornerstone players has been more muted in this instance. In past years, Buxton's return from injury would inject a surge of energy into the clubhouse and fan base, often coinciding with solid performances. His home run on Friday night was a prime example of how he can step back into the lineup and provide an immediate boost. Both players have played at an All-Star level in 2024, but they've been limited to a combined 168 games. While their potential to contribute remains undeniable, the team is banking on other players to carry the lineup during the final weeks. On Saturday, both Buxton and Correa were removed from the team’s blowout loss, another sign that the Twins are treading carefully with their star duo. This conservative approach continued into Sunday, as neither player was in the lineup. While Buxton and Correa are back on the roster, their health is questionable enough that Baldelli will continue monitoring their playing time when necessary. The timing of this caution is crucial. The Twins currently sit in the final playoff spot, but they have little room for error when it comes to their postseason aspirations. Detroit, Seattle, and Boston are closing in, especially with Minnesota’s recent slump. By limiting Buxton’s and Correa’s exposure during September, the team is taking a long-term view, hoping to have both at least partially healthy for a potential playoff run. Obviously, health is key for any team heading into October. If Buxton and Correa can avoid setbacks, they’ll likely move back into more prominent spots in the lineup during the postseason. Baldelli and the Twins' front office know that a fully operational Buxton (who can deliver Gold Glove-level defense and power) alongside a healthier Correa would elevate their chances of success. In the meantime, expect the team to handle them with care, utilizing the lower spots in the lineup to control their exposure while keeping the Twins competitive. The balance between maximizing their impact and managing their health will be one of Baldelli’s trickiest challenges as the regular season winds down. The Twins are hoping that these small sacrifices now—like fewer at-bats and an occasional early exit—will pay dividends when the games mean even more come October. Are the Twins optimally handling their star players? Should Correa and Buxton be used more for the stretch run? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

One Twins minor leaguer was let go for his actions on the field earlier this week. So, who was the pitcher who took the brunt of the damage in the pitch-tipping scandal? Image courtesy of William Parmeter Earlier this week, ESPN reported that the Twins released 2024 sixth-round pick Derek Bender after a wild series of events. Bender, a catcher, was caught telling the opposition what pitch was coming during a game that had playoff implications for both teams. According to the reports, his reasoning behind tipping pitches was that he wanted the team’s season to be finished so he could go home. Fort Myers lost the game and was eliminated from playoff contention. The pitcher on the mound for this debacle was lefty Ross Dunn, who the Twins selected in the 10th round of the 2023 MLB Draft from Arizona State University. Dunn played his first two collegiate seasons at Florida State, where he pitched very well as a reliever (2.13 ERA, 10.7 K/9) in his freshman season before some struggles as a sophomore (4.88 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 14.4 K/9). During his junior season, he made 15 starts (65 1/3 innings) while allowing 31 earned runs with an 84-to-44 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Minnesota’s scouts likely were drawn to his strong strikeout numbers (11.6 K/9) during his final college season. Dunn didn’t make his professional debut until this season, and all his appearances came at Low-A, where he was slightly older than the average age of the competition. He made 19 appearances (16 starts) with Fort Myers and posted a 6.46 ERA with a 1.60 WHIP and 8.8 K/9. Dunn surrendered more than one hit per inning, and batters combined for a .829 OPS against him. Most of that damage was from right-handed hitters (.881 OPS), as he held lefties to a .693 OPS in 79 plate appearances. Dunn’s performance in his final start, the pitch-tipping incident, was poor as he was charged with four earned runs on five hits in 1 2/3 innings. However, it wasn’t out of character for him to allow big innings in previous appearances. He had three appearances earlier in the year where he allowed six earned runs and three earned runs or more in nine of his 19 appearances. However, his numbers for the season would look different if the pitch-tipping incident were removed. He entered his final start of the season with a 6.03 ERA with opponents batting .264/.343/.452 (.795) against him in 18 appearances. Based on his final start, his ERA jumped nearly half a run, and his opponent’s OPS increased by over 30 points. Bender might have wanted his season to be done, but his actions impacted Dunn’s performance and his final numbers on the season. Dunn had shown some improvements in his recent starts leading into that game. In five games, he had held opponents to a .203/.286/.367 (.653). There are no guarantees that Dunn would have posted strong numbers in that start, but it should have been his performance to dictate. Dunn isn’t a top prospect in the Twins organization, so every appearance is essential for him to make an impression and show improvement. Minnesota’s player development department has also done a good job turning middle-to-late-round draft picks, like Dunn, into pitching prospects that can impact the farm system in recent years. Many players likely felt the same way as Bender, but they were still professionals and had to perform in the season’s final games. Overall, the Twins will likely take into account this incident when evaluating Dunn’s performance during the 2024 campaign. What can Dunn do next season to put himself on the prospect map? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Jhoan Durán has struggled through different parts of the 2024 season. Here are three reasons why the Twins should continue to trust their closer in the season’s most important games. Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports When you think of the Twins' bullpen in 2024, it's impossible not to focus on Jhoan Durán. He’s been at the center of attention since spring training when his velocity was noticeably lower. An oblique injury meant he was left off the Opening Day roster. After returning from the IL, Durán’s velocity was still lower than in previous seasons, which resulted in a decline in his performance. Durán's recent struggles, particularly in non-save situations, have caused some fans to question his reliability. Despite this, there are plenty of reasons the Twins should remain confident in Durán as a critical figure for their late-inning relief heading into the 2024 postseason and beyond. Reason 1: FIP Pointing to Improvements One of the most telling stats to examine when evaluating a pitcher is their FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). FIP focuses on what a pitcher can control—strikeouts, walks, hit batters, and home runs—removing the noise created by fielding and luck-based outcomes. Since the beginning of August (16 appearances), he has posted a 5.14 ERA, but a deeper look shows that his 0.68 FIP is significantly lower than his ERA. This suggests he’s been a victim of bad luck and should experience positive regression if he keeps his process intact. Durán’s FIP in recent weeks has hovered well below his ERA, indicating that his stuff hasn’t fallen off the cliff some might suspect. His strikeout rate remains strong, with 22 strikeouts in 14 innings. Also, he's keeping the walks in check better than many of his bullpen peers, with one free pass in his last 16 appearances. A higher ERA doesn’t mean Durán has suddenly lost his edge; it means the timing of bad breaks and hits falling in tough spots have inflated his runs allowed. Reason 2: Performance in Save Situations Durán’s struggles in non-save situations have been well-documented this season. He’s given up big hits and crooked numbers when the game isn’t on the line, but this doesn’t necessarily mean he’s lost his touch as a closer. Non-save situations can sometimes be deceptive. Pitchers can have different mindsets; sometimes, their approach changes depending on the game context. In Durán’s case, it’s likely not a sign of diminished skill but a byproduct of being less focused or feeling less adrenaline compared to tight, save-clinching spots. In non-save situations (19 1/3 innings), Durán has posted a 6.98 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and 9.3 K/9. When given a save opportunity, he has combined for a 2.17 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP and 11.2 K/9. The Twins shouldn’t overlook his struggles in non-save spots but shouldn’t overreact. Late-inning, high-leverage outs in playoff settings are where Durán’s value shines, and that’s where the focus should lie. Reason 3: Other Underlying Metrics Despite his decline in velocity this season, other underlying metrics point to Durán being one of baseball’s best relievers. His .304 xSLG is higher than the previous two seasons, but he still ranks in the top 5% of MLB. Also, his xwOBA, xwOBACON, and xERA are all in baseball’s top 8% in 2024. His 2.83 xERA is nearly 130 points lower than his actual ERA. He’s also made significant improvements in how regularly batters are barreling up the ball against him. Last season, batters posted a 7.0 Barrel% and a 3.9 Barrel/PA, while this year, they have accumulated a 3.9 Barrel% and a 2.5 Barrel/PA. Durán’s season-long struggles, particularly in non-save situations, don’t take away from the fact that he’s still one of Minnesota’s best late-inning relievers. His FIP suggests that he’s due for a bounce-back, and his ability to thrive in high-leverage moments is precisely what the Twins need in October. While his ERA may have ticked up, it’s far from a reason to panic. The Twins should continue to trust Durán with the ball in crucial moments, knowing that his raw talent and track record of success outweigh the bumps in the road. Should the Twins still trust Durán? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins and Reds square off at Target Field this weekend, and the two front offices have become familiar with each other in recent seasons. So, how have two pivotal trades played out for both sides? Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports The Twins and Reds have engaged in some notable trades in recent years, each shaping the future of their respective franchises. First, the Twins acquired Sonny Gray in exchange for prospect Chase Petty ahead of the 2022 season. The second major trade saw the Twins bring in Tyler Mahle and send Spencer Steer, Steve Hajjar, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to Cincinnati at the 2022 trade deadline. Both deals were geared toward bolstering the Twins’ rotation, but each has had a different impact. The Sonny Gray-Chase Petty Swap In March 2022, the Twins made a decisive move to upgrade their pitching staff by trading for veteran right-hander Gray. Gray had built a strong track record, excelling as a starter for the Oakland Athletics and Cincinnati Reds, and his mix of competitiveness and pitchability made him a natural fit in Minnesota. In exchange, the Reds received Petty, a 2021 first-round pick known for his triple-digit fastball and high upside. Twins' Perspective: Gray provided the Twins with two All-Star-caliber seasons while pitching at the top of the team’s rotation. In his first season with the team, Gray posted a 3.08 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP over 119 2/3 innings, battling through minor injuries. His 2023 season saw him perform at an even higher level, emerging as one of the AL's top pitchers and being a central figure in Minnesota’s playoff push. In 184 innings, he posted a 2.79 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP while leading MLB in FIP (2.83) and HR/9 (0.4). Gray's ability to mix his repertoire and pitch deep into games made him invaluable, though his durability has always been a question. Following the season, the Twins made Gray a qualifying offer, which he rejected to become a free agent. He signed with the Cardinals, and Minnesota received the 33rd overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft as compensation for his departure. The Twins used the pick to select shortstop Kyle DeBarge from the University of Louisiana-Lafayette. Minnesota’s front office paid a premium for Gray, but they got a draft pick similar to Petty's when Gray left. Reds' Perspective: Petty, the centerpiece of this deal for Cincinnati continues to develop in the Reds’ system, and he was recently promoted to Triple-A while only 21 years old. His velocity remains his most notable attribute, and his off-speed stuff has also seen improvement. In 127 innings, he posted a 4.39 ERA with a 123-to-56 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Petty projects as a potential frontline starter, but it will take more time before we see whether the trade works out in Cincinnati’s favor. The Reds bet on Petty’s raw talent, trading an established arm in Gray for a high-risk, high-reward prospect. The Tyler Mahle Deal The Twins made another splash at the 2022 trade deadline, acquiring Tyler Mahle from Cincinnati. The price for Mahle was steep, as Minnesota shipped Spencer Steer, Steve Hajjar, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to the Reds in exchange for the righty. Mahle had a strong track record and was expected to solidify the Twins’ rotation. Twins' Perspective: The Mahle trade didn’t work out as the Twins had hoped. Though he showed flashes of his potential in his first handful of starts with the Twins, Mahle struggled with injuries, including a season-ending shoulder injury in 2023. He was limited to nine starts and 42 innings in Minnesota. Ultimately, his inability to stay healthy has made the trade a sore spot for Minnesota’s front office, and it could be deemed the worst trade in the Twin's history. Mahle left as a free agent last winter, and the Twins faced the reality of having dealt three valuable prospects for a pitcher who was never able to deliver consistently. The Twins made a bold move, betting on Mahle’s ability to be a difference-maker down the stretch in 2022 and beyond. Unfortunately, injuries derailed those plans, leaving the organization and fans wondering what could have been had Mahle stayed healthy. Reds' Perspective: For the Reds, this trade looks like a clear win. Spencer Steer quickly became a core player for Cincinnati, contributing both offensively and defensively with versatility around the infield. Over the last three seasons, he has combined for a 107 OPS+ and finished sixth in the 2023 NL Rookie of the Year voting. He's demonstrated an advanced approach at the plate and solid power. Christian Encarnacion-Strand, another critical piece of the deal, posted a 112 OPS+ in 63 games last season. However, he has been limited to a 40 OPS+ in 2024. He suffered a broken bone and ligament damage when he was hit by a pitch at the end of April, and he’s currently on the 60-day IL. His power potential is undeniable, and he figures to be a significant part of Cincinnati’s lineup if he stays healthy. The Reds traded Steve Hajjar to the Guardians organization, where he shifted to a bullpen role. The Twins-Reds trades have produced mixed results for Minnesota. The Gray for Petty swap might work out well for both teams. The Reds will ultimately come out ahead in the Mahle trade, especially with the emergence of Steer and Encarnacion-Strand. What stands out about these two trades? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins have officially moved Louie Varland to the bullpen for the remainder of the season. Will another starter join him in the October relief corps? Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports With October baseball looming, the Minnesota Twins have an exciting mix of arms. While the rotation seems poised with four solid options (Pablo López, Bailey Ober, David Festa, and Simeon Woods Richardson), the club faces an intriguing decision regarding Zebby Matthews. He has risen through the ranks quickly this season, and Matthews’s pitch mix and demeanor on the mound suggest that a move to the bullpen could be the key to unlocking his potential this October. Matthews has relied mainly on a three-pitch mix as a starter, featuring a fastball, slider, and cutter. His fastball has averaged 94.8 MPH, but the movement and location have been essential to his success. When he’s on, Matthews's fastball beautifully sets up the rest of his arsenal. However, the demands of a starter often prevent him from maxing out his velocity. That fastball could tick up a few extra miles per hour in shorter stints, making it a more potent weapon in high-leverage situations. His slider has been another effective tool, with a 39.3 Whiff% and a 23.5 Put Away% when he deploys it with two strikes. When he’s sharp, the break can leave hitters off-balance, and in a relief role, Matthews could rely more heavily on it, knowing he won’t need to conserve energy for multiple innings. His cutter has produced the lowest exit velocity (87.9 MPH) among his top three pitches, but opponents have their highest xSLG (.737) against this pitch. The slider-fastball combination is likely where Matthews would live out of the bullpen. What could truly separate Matthews as a reliever is his ability to pitch aggressively. His strikeout rates have been solid (21.2 K%), but he’s not overpowering. Shorter outings could allow him to attack hitters, challenging them early in the count and working primarily with his best two pitches. He’s also closing in on a career-high number of innings pitched, so a switch to the bullpen can help the Twins to manage his innings and keep him fresh. Minnesota’s bullpen has shown some flaws (or at least signs of overuse) in recent weeks, with the manager having a tough time relying on anyone outside of Griffin Jax. Jhoan Durán has allowed seven earned runs in his last 10 innings pitched, but has a 0.88 FIP and a .483 BABIP allowed in that same span. Cole Sands has shown the ability to pitch multiple innings and get outs in high-leverage situations. Jorge Alcalá has allowed runs in five of his last 11 appearances after earning a late-inning role in the season’s middle months. Matthews can’t be a savior for this group, but he can provide another viable option, in the stead of Alcalá if needed or in support of all four of those named above. Matthews can serve as a swing piece out of the bullpen—ready to enter at critical moments and provide the flexibility Rocco Baldelli values in late-game situations. Also, the postseason always demands flexibility, and teams that can get creative with their pitching staff often succeed more. Matthews could give the Twins that much-needed versatility in October. Whether providing a bridge in the middle innings or stepping up in high-leverage situations, his ability to shift to the bullpen could be a game-changer. The Twins have seen how valuable converted starters can be in relief roles. Durán, Jax, and Sands were all starters before switching to the bullpen at the big-league level. With Matthews’s pitch mix and the potential to increase his fastball velocity in shorter outings, the team should seriously consider this transition. As the bullpen has endured its ups and downs throughout the season, having a fresh, dynamic arm could provide a critical edge when the shape of the schedule changes next month Will the Twins allow Matthews to pitch in relief? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota’s lackluster performance in recent weeks has pushed them down in the standings to the final playoff spot. Is this right where the team wants to be? Image courtesy of Erik Williams - USA TODAY Sports With the final stretch of the 2024 season underway, the Minnesota Twins find themselves in the thick of the American League Wild Card race. While the natural instinct is to push for the highest seed possible, there’s a compelling case for the Twins to strategically aim for the third Wild Card spot. Securing this position could set them up for a more favorable matchup against a vulnerable Houston Astros squad rather than facing one of the heavy hitters from the AL East. When you think of recent postseason success, the Houston Astros have been the standard-bearer in the American League for nearly a decade. But 2024 hasn’t been the smoothest of seasons for them, and there are signs they could be ripe for an upset in the Wild Card round. Here’s why: Inconsistent Starting Pitching: Houston’s rotation, typically a strength, hasn’t lived up to its usual billing, with injuries impacting their starters. Framber Valdez has been their ace with a sub-3.00 ERA while holding opponents to a .601 OPS. Outside of Valdez, there are a lot of question marks. Yusei Kikuchi was acquired from Toronto at the trade deadline, but his 2024 performance has been inconsistent. Justin Verlander has returned from injury but has been limited as he continues to age. With injuries depleting their depth, the Astros are relying on arms that don’t strike the same fear as in years past. Offensive Streakiness: The Astros' lineup, headlined by Jose Altuve, Yordan Álvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman, still has plenty of firepower. However, they’ve gone through extended slumps, leaving them more susceptible than usual. Kyle Tucker has missed most of the season with an injury, and Bregman has had a down year by his standards. Minnesota’s offense ranks fourth in the AL for wRC+, with the Astros being one spot ahead of them. However, the Yankees and Orioles rank at the top of the league. When they’re not firing on all cylinders, the Astros' offense looks much more human. Bullpen Woes: While Houston has long been known for its reliable bullpen, it has seen cracks in that armor this season. Minnesota’s relievers have accumulated the second-highest fWAR among AL teams (4.9 fWAR), more than double Houston’s total (2.2 fWAR). The Twins, who have shown a knack for working counts and extending at-bats, could take advantage of a tired or shaky bullpen in a short series. If the Twins were to land the second Wild Card spot, they would be staring down a matchup with the second-place team from the AL East, likely either the Baltimore Orioles or the New York Yankees. Both matchups would be considerably more daunting. Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles have been one of the best teams in baseball all season, driven by their exciting young core. With players like Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson and a lockdown bullpen, they pose a significant challenge. Baltimore’s combination of youth and top-tier talent has made them one of the toughest teams to beat in the AL. Minnesota has gone 0-3 against Baltimore this season while being outscored 22 to 9. New York Yankees: Yankee Stadium has been a house of horrors for the Twins in previous playoff appearances, and the 2024 Yankees are a formidable opponent. Gerrit Cole can still dominate any lineup, and Aaron Judge and Juan Soto change the game with one swing of the bat. Minnesota went 0-6 versus New York this season while being outscored by 24 runs. The Yankees present a more intimidating challenge than a flawed Astros team. There’s no denying that the Twins want to enter the playoffs with momentum, but that doesn’t necessarily mean gunning for the highest seed. The Astros, while still a talented team, have shown enough weaknesses this season to make a first-round matchup with them a desirable outcome for Minnesota. The Twins finished the regular season with a 4-2 record against the Astros. The third Wild Card spot would also allow the Twins to avoid an immediate battle with the AL East giants. Facing the Orioles or Yankees, who are built for postseason success, could prove a far more daunting task. A matchup with Houston, on the other hand, gives the Twins a realistic chance to win a Wild Card series and build momentum for a deeper playoff run. This counterintuitive strategy could be Minnesota’s best path to postseason success as the season winds down. Is the third Wild Card spot better than the second Wild Card spot? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article