Cody Christie

The Twins need to continue to add to the roster for 2023. Do any of these former Twins fit with the team’s future plans? Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski, USA TODAY Sports The Twins need to continue to add to the roster for 2023. Do any of these former Twins fit with the team’s future plans? Many of the league’s top free agent options are officially signed, meaning teams must turn to trades to improve their teams. Minnesota has former players on rosters throughout baseball, but the following players have seen their names thrown around in the rumor mill. Not all of these players fit with Minnesota’s current roster construction, but some of the names have something to offer the 2023 Twins. Aaron Hicks, OF Hicks is owed roughly $30 million over the next three seasons, but his performance has significantly declined over the last four seasons. He averaged 48 games from 2019-2021 with a 103 OPS+. In 2022, he played 130 games and hit .216/.330/.313 (.642) with 19 extra-base hits. Defensively, Hicks has started to play less time in center field, which takes away some of his overall value. Twins Fit: Low. The Twins have better options at all three outfield positions. Josh Donaldson, 3B Last winter, Minnesota got out of the final two years (and $50M) of Donaldson’s four-year deal by trading him to the Yankees. Reports point to New York having a tough time finding a trade partner for Donaldson and Hicks. Last season, Donaldson had a below 100 OPS+ for the first time since 2012. He already turned 37 years old at the beginning of December, and he is likely on the backside of his career. Twins Fit: Low. The Twins were happy to get out of Donaldson’s contract. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, SS Kiner-Falefa’s Twins tenure was short-lived, but the organization was interested in him before the Donaldson trade. In 2022, he hit .261/.314/.327 (.642) while ranking 8th among AL shortstops in SABR’s Defensive Index. His defensive skills are what the Twins were interested in last year, but there are stronger defenders on the trade market. His Whiff% (99th percentile) and K% (92nd percentile) bring down an offensive profile that already includes limited power. Twins Fit: Medium. Minnesota could use more depth at shortstop, but he might not be an upgrade over Kyle Farmer. Liam Hendriks, RP Hendriks has been one of baseball’s best closers over the last four seasons. He’s under contract for $14.33 million next season, and his $15 million team option for 2024 becomes guaranteed if he is traded. The White Sox have discussed trading Hendriks with multiple teams, including the Mets. Plenty of teams will be interested in acquiring Hendriks, but it seems unlikely for Chicago to trade him in the division. Twins Fit: Medium. Paying Hendriks nearly $30 million over the next two seasons is a lot of money, but he’d significantly upgrade the team’s bullpen. Eduardo Escobar, UTL Until recently, the Mets had Escobar penciled in as their starting third baseman. However, Carlos Correa’s signing means Escobar lost his starting job. He is under contract for $9.5 million for 2023 with a $9 million option ($500,000 buyout) for 2024. In 136 games last season, he hit .240/.295/.430 (.726) with 26 doubles, four triples, and 20 home runs. He’s averaged a 108 OPS+ over the last two seasons, but he is closing in on his mid-30s. Twins Fit: Medium. Escobar was a joy when he was with the Twins, but the team doesn’t have a clear need for a utility player. Should the Twins try and trade for any of these former Twins? Are any of them a better fit than the others? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins may need to look to the trade market after losing out on the top free-agent options. One shortstop is drawing interest from multiple teams, and he is an intriguing option. Image courtesy of David Richard-USA TODAY Sports The Twins may need to look to the trade market after losing out on the top free-agent options. One shortstop is drawing interest from multiple teams, and he is an intriguing option. Baltimore surprised many by finishing the 2022 season with an above .500 record. The Orioles were the only American League team with a winning record that failed to make the playoffs. It felt like the Orioles were in a perpetual rebuild, but multiple years of high draft picks seem to be paying dividends. Now, Baltimore may be looking to capitalize on their momentum and put itself in contention for multiple years. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that multiple front offices have inquired about the availability of shortstop Jorge Mateo. He points to the Twins, Braves, Red Sox, and Dodgers as all teams that lost their starting shortstop this winter. Baltimore has multiple young infielders and other prospects close to the big-league level, making Mateo expendable if the right deal is on the table. The Yankees originally signed Mateo in January 2012 out of the Dominican Republic. He spent his first six seasons in the Yankees organization before being traded to the Oakland Athletics as part of the Sonny Gray trade. Mateo never broke through with the A’s before Oakland traded him to the Padres in 2020 for a player to be named later. His big-league debut came during the COVID-shortened season in San Diego, where he hit .154/.185/.269 (.454) in 22 games. Mateo saw limited action with the Padres, and the team placed him on waivers during the 2021 campaign. Baltimore claimed him, and he slid into an everyday role with the club. Last season, Mateo hit .221/.267/.379 (.646) with 25 doubles, seven triples, and 13 home runs. His 81 OPS+ is below league average, but he has other skills that make him an intriguing trade target. He led the AL with 35 steals last season and ranks in the 99th percentile for sprint speed. MLB is switching to bigger bases and limiting pick-off attempts, which can help players like Mateo be even more aggressive on the base paths. Defensively, Mateo is an elite shortstop that ranks among baseball’s best defenders. He ranked in the 97th percentile for outs above average and was a top-five shortstop according to Defensive Runs Saved. Mateo (7.8 SDI) also finished second to Houston’s Jeremy Pena (8.1 SDI) in SABR’s Defensive Index. Kyle Farmer currently projects as Minnesota’s Opening Day shortstop and posted a -2.0 SDI in 2022. Limiting defensive shifts next season will also mean that strong defensive players have an opportunity to provide more value to their teams. He also has experience playing all three outfield positions along with second and third base. That versatility can help him fit into a different role if Minnesota wants to use Royce Lewis at shortstop when he is healthy. Mateo didn’t debut until age 25 because he bounced around to different organizations and took time to develop. He is entering his first year in the arbitration process and projects to make under $2 million. His skill set would also keep his value down through the arbitration process, so he should remain relatively affordable during his three remaining years of team control. So, what can Mateo provide the Twins? His 3.4 WAR in 2022 would have ranked fourth on the Twins behind Carlos Correa, Luis Arraez, and Byron Buxton. He would be a clear defensive upgrade over Farmer, even if Farmer provides slightly more value at the plate. As Minnesota saw last year, it is important to have depth at multiple positions when injuries inevitably strike. Mateo can provide depth and be an affordable infielder for multiple seasons. However, the Twins might not want to leave shortstop open for when Lewis returns in the season’s second half. Should the Twins target Mateo? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Shortstop is one of baseball's most important positions, and the Twins have had minimal long-term stability at that spot. So, is there hope for the future? Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports (Correa), David Berding (Polanco), Brad Rempel (Escobar) Shortstop is one of baseball's most important positions, and the Twins have had minimal long-term stability at that spot. So, is there hope for the future? Shortstop is a challenging position for any team to fill in the long term. Many teams rotate through players as younger and more athletic prospects reach the big-league level. However, calling the Twins' shortstop position a revolving door is not just hyperbole. Cristian Guzman was the last Twins shortstop to start on Opening Day in more than two consecutive seasons, and he hasn't worn a Twins uniform since 2004. There have been 13 Opening Days since Target Field opened in 2010, and the Twins have used nine different players as their starting shortstop. Jorge Polanco provided a brief respite for the revolving door as he made Opening Day starts in three seasons (2017, 2019, and 2020). Eduardo Escobar (2016, 2018) and Pedro Floirmon (2013, 2014) each made two Opening Day starts. Otherwise, the Twins have rotated through JJ Hardy (2010), Alexi Casilla (2011), Jamey Carroll (2012), Danny Santana (2015), Andrelton Simmons (2021), and Carlos Correa (2022). Minnesota fielded some sub-par Twins rosters during the Target Field era, but this list is tough to digest. Minnesota made other mistakes at shortstop during this stretch as well. Entering the 2011 season, the Twins signed Tsuyoshi Nishioka to play shortstop while trading away JJ Hardy for Brett Jacobsen and Jim Hoey. Nishioka only played 71 games in Minnesota while hitting .215/.267/.236 (.503) with a 41 OPS+. Hardy went on to be an All-Star and a three-time Gold Glove in Baltimore, averaging 136 games per season with a .700 OPS over six seasons. Moving on from Hardy is one of the biggest blunders in team history. Fans often look at a team's top prospect rankings to search for the team's long-term shortstop solution. However, this is only sometimes the best option because many prospects play shortstop during their minor-league career with little chance to stick at the position at the big-league level. Shortly after Derek Falvey took over the organization, three of the Twins' top six prospects were shortstops. Out of that group, Royce Lewis still has an opportunity to play multiple years at shortstop, but Nick Gordon and Wander Javier will see minimal time at the position. Also, Lewis is rehabbing from a second ACL surgery, so there are no guarantees he will play shortstop for multiple seasons. Minnesota's top prospect list currently contains multiple shortstop prospects, but there continue to be questions about whether each player can stick at the position. Brooks Lee had an impressive start to his professional career last season, but when the team drafted him, the Twins knew he would likely move to third base. Royce Lewis has played some outfield and third base, but his most recent ACL injury happened when he crashed into the outfield wall. Austin Martin was one of the key pieces acquired for Jose Berrios, and he's been playing other defensive positions. Outside of Lewis, Noah Miller offers some long-term hope for shortstop even though he is multiple levels away from making his big-league debut. For now, Twins fans can put their hope in Royce Lewis being an above-average regular at shortstop. He showed plenty of promise during his big-league debut, even if he is limited at the position. If the season started today, Kyle Farmer is the likely Opening Day shortstop, and few would call him a long-term solution. There is a chance the Twins will trade for a starting shortstop, but it still seems unlikely for the revolving door to stop anytime soon. What player can stop the revolving door? Is it a good strategy for teams to rotate through shortstops? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Nick Gordon surprised many with his breakout performance in 2022. What can he provide the Twins in the upcoming season? Image courtesy of Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports Nick Gordon surprised many with his breakout performance in 2022. What can he provide the Twins in the upcoming season? Entering the 2022 season, expectations were low for Nick Gordon and what he could provide the Twins. The former top-five draft pick spent much of the last decade considered one of the organization's top prospects. He was on national top 100 lists from 2015-2018 and reached Triple-A as a 22-year-old. In 2019, injuries limited Gordon to 70 games, but he posted a .801 OPS to offer some hope for the future. Gordon likely should have made his big-league debut during the 2020 season, but he tested positive for COVID and missed time. He worked his way back and made his debut during the 2021 season. In 73 games, he hit .240/.292/.355 (.647) with nine doubles and four home runs. As a 25-year-old, the team likely considered removing him from the 40-man roster. Luckily, the Twins' front office showed faith in the former top prospect, and he rewarded that faith with a breakout 2022 season. Entering last season, Gordon figured to fit into a utility role with the potential to play multiple infield positions and even some outfield. Injuries forced many Twins players to take on new roles, and Gordon played the second most games on the team. He started more games in left field than any other Twins player and played 36 games or more at three different positions. Gordon's defensive versatility wasn't the only trait keeping him in the line-up. Many evaluators touted his offensive promise as a prospect, and he found his swing at the big-league level. Offense was down across baseball, but Gordon showed skills at getting on base and hitting for power. In 138 games, he hit .272/.316/.427 (.743) with 28 doubles, four triples, nine home runs, and a 113 OPS+. Some of those numbers can be fluky, but some of his underlying totals also pointed to a breakout. He ranked in the 74th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, hard hit %, and xSLG. It was also his first season seeing significant time in the outfield, and he finished in the top 5 among AL left fielders in SABR's Defensive Index. Twins Daily named him the team's most improved player at the season's end. Gordon proved his value last season, but it's hard to see where he fits into the team's plans for 2023. Last week, the Twins signed Joey Gallo, a left-handed hitter who plays corner outfielder like Gordon. Even before adding Gallo, Minnesota's corner outfield depth chart is already packed with players like Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Gilberto Celestino, Kyle Garlick, and Mark Contreras. It seems likely for the Twins to trade at least one player in this group, but Gordon isn't likely to start regularly over many of these names. The biggest elephant in the room is not knowing how many injuries will impact the 2023 Twins. Gordon's path to regular playing time last season was injuries to multiple key contributors. FanGraphs' ZiPS projections estimate Gordon to get 400 plate appearances while hitting .258/.304/.416 (.720) with a 100 OPS+ and a 0.7 WAR. Baseball-Reference projects him to get 443 plate appearances and post a .720 OPS with 37 extra-base hits. Every projection model will predict regression for Gordon, but these totals would point to him continuing to be a solid contributor with semi-regular playing time. At this point last winter, no one would have projected that Gordon would provide more WAR than Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers, Gary Sanchez, and Alex Kirilloff. The team didn't expect him to have a regular role, but he thrived in a regular role. Now, it's time to see what Gordon can do for an encore. What can fans expect from Gordon in 2023? Can he reach another level of success, or have we already seen the best he has to offer? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota's front office might need to shift to trading players to complete the 2023 roster. However, their recent track record with deals isn't spotless. Let's look back at the Twins and Padres trade from last off-season. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports Minnesota's front office might need to shift to trading players to complete the 2023 roster. However, their recent track record with deals isn't spotless. Let's look back at the Twins and Padres trade from last off-season. In spring training, the Twins had Taylor Rogers and Jhoan Duran scheduled to be a dominant back-end duo in the Twins' bullpen. On April 7th, the Twins sent Rogers and Brent Rooker to the Padres for Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan, and Brayan Medina. San Diego wanted an upgrade to their bullpen, while the Twins got a controllable starting pitcher and a reliever with late-inning experience. The deal made sense for both teams on paper, but the players involved struggled through much of the season. Chris Paddack's Struggles Paddack's Twins tenure started well as he posted a 3.15 ERA with a 16-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first four starts. Something wasn't right in his fifth start as he allowed three runs while only recording seven outs. He walked off the mound on May 8th and didn't pitch another inning in 2022. In the middle of May, he underwent his second Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. Paddack's recovery sidelines him until the middle of next season, but there is hope the Twins can get him back for the stretch run. He is under contract for two more seasons, so the team hopes he can provide value over the end of his team control. Emilio Pagan's Struggles Pagan's first season with the Twins couldn't have gone much worse. In 59 appearances (63 innings), he posted a 4.43 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP, but that doesn't tell the whole story. Minnesota continued to use Pagan in high-leverage situations, even with his struggles. Pagan's -0.4 WAR ranked fourth lowest on the team, with only Yennier Cano, Joe Smith, and Trevor Megill ranking lower. According to Win Probability Added (WPA), Pagan ranked 33rd out of 38 Twins pitchers with a -0.99 WPA. Minnesota tendered Pagan a contract for 2023, which might tie to his improved performance in the second half. In 25 games, he posted a 3.56 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP and 10.7 K/9. Barring a trade, Pagan will be part of Minnesota's bullpen in 2023. Taylor Rogers' Struggles Rogers started the year strongly before struggling mightily down the stretch. He posted a 3.82 ERA in the first half with a 0.98 WHIP and 10.5 K/9. San Diego continued to use him in a late-inning role, and he accumulated 26 saves. In July, his performance declined as he allowed ten earned runs on 17 hits in 9 2/3 innings. With the Padres, Rogers was worth -0.68 WPA and a -0.2 WAR. At the beginning of August, the Padres sent Rogers to the Brewers for a package that included Josh Hader. He struggled after the trade with a 5.48 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. Relievers work in small sample sizes, and it was the first time Rogers struggled for most of a season. He's left-handed and has a proven track record, so a team will sign him and look for him to bounce back in 2023. Rogers is a free agent searching for a new home for 2023, so that portion of the trade is done from the Padres' perspective. Minnesota will hope for an improved performance from Pagan in 2023 and that Paddack can be part of the 2024 rotation. The Twins have a chance to recoup some value, but both teams look like losers at this point. Which team was hurt more by the trade? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins’ offseason plans have recently shifted with Carlos Correa’s departure. So, why would the team consider trading one of the team’s top starting pitchers? Image courtesy of Lon Horwedel, USA Today Sports (Gray), David Berding-USA TODAY Sports (Maeda) The Twins’ offseason plans have recently shifted with Carlos Correa’s departure. So, why would the team consider trading one of the team’s top starting pitchers? Rumors will swirl as baseball’s offseason continues to progress. According to Dan Hayes of the Athletic, the Twins have received interest from other clubs in starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda. Both players are only under team control for the 2023 season, but it’s not clear whether or not the Twins are interested in trading either player. It will likely take a considerable offer to acquire either pitcher, especially if Minnesota plans to contend in 2023. Why Would the Twins Trade a Starting Pitcher? On paper, the Twins starting rotation looks complete, with Gray and Maeda joined by Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober . Unfortunately, three of those players are returning from injury, and there are question marks about whether or not they can hold up for an entire season. Maeda missed all of 2022 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, but there were expectations that he could have pitched out of the Twins bullpen if the team was in contention. Gray pitched the third most innings for the Twins, but he missed time with a few minor injuries. Those injuries would likely factor in any trade. Minnesota might be willing to trade one of its starters if they believe that the organization’s pitching pipeline is fully operational. Earlier this winter, the Twins traded Gio Urshela because the club wanted to give Jose Miranda the starting third base job. Now, the team might want to follow a similar path with their young pitching. Entering the 2022 campaign, the front office showed faith in the pitching pipeline, and they can follow a similar path this winter. A trio of young starters will be pushed into a more prominent role if Gray or Maeda is dealt. Josh Winder made the sixth most starts on the team, but he missed time due to a shoulder impingement. Louie Varland won back-to-back awards as the organization’s minor league pitcher of the year, and the team might feel he’s ready to join the rotation. Another intriguing option is Simeon Woods Richardson, who made his debut in September. Last season, he dominated in the upper minors with a 2.77 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. Do the Twins have enough faith in these players to make them a fixture in the rotation? What is Gray and Maeda’s Trade Value? Gray and Maeda have established themselves as reliable big-league starters, so multiple contending teams are likely looking for a rotational upgrade. Gray would have the higher trade value between the two pitchers because Maeda is returning from Tommy John surgery. Gray hasn’t made 30 or more starts since 2019, but he has shown the ability to be a playoff-caliber starter when healthy. It's also conceivable that the Twins may want to look to extend Gray beyond 2023. In the offseason, most teams believe they are in contention, so they might be willing to overpay to bolster their rotation. Minnesota’s recent track record with trading pitchers is underwhelming. Leading into 2022, the Twins dealt Taylor Rogers to the Padres for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan. Paddack made five starts before injuring his UCL and undergoing his second Tommy John surgery. The Twins made Mahle the team’s most prominent trade deadline acquisition last season. He was limited to four starts with the club because a shoulder injury hampered his velocity. Minnesota likely worked with Mahle to build shoulder strength this winter, but there are no guarantees that he will be back to 100% What Do the Twins Need? Minnesota entered the offseason needing a starting shortstop, a second catcher, and upgrades to the rotation and bullpen. The team added Kyle Farmer as a shortstop option, but the club is likely looking for more middle infield depth. Christian Vazquez signed for three years and $30 million to join Ryan Jeffers behind the plate. Also, the Twins are still rumored to be interested in top free agents like Carlos Rodon and Nathan Eovaldi. If the team signs a free agent, they might be more willing to trade a current starting pitcher. Does it make sense for the Twins to trade Gray or Maeda? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota's projected Opening Day roster has shifted since the offseason began. Let's catch up on what the team's roster might look like at the end of spring training. Image courtesy of Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports Minnesota's projected Opening Day roster has shifted since the offseason began. Let's catch up on what the team's roster might look like at the end of spring training. Last season, the lockout forced MLB to allow teams to begin the year with 28-man rosters. The lockout forced a shortened spring training, and baseball was worried about an increased chance of player injuries. For 2023, teams must narrow their final roster to 26 players. Players listed below with the ** are on the bubble for the final roster spots. Catchers (2): Christian Vazquez, Ryan Jeffers One of the biggest needs for the Twins this winter was catcher, and the team signed veteran catcher Christian Vazquez to a three-year deal. Over the last two seasons, Vazquez has averaged 128 games while hitting .265/.311/.374 (.685). Defensively, he grades out as an above-average pitch framer and his ability to throw out runners. Even with Vazquez, Jeffers will start 60-70 games behind the plate. This decline in playing time might help him to stay healthy after injuries impacted him in back-to-back seasons. Jeffers is under team control through 2026, so there is still plenty of time to show his value at the big-league level. Infielders (5): Luis Arraez, Kyle Farmer, Alex Kirilloff, Jose Miranda, Jorge Polanco Minnesota was waiting on a Carlos Correa decision, but he signed a long-term deal with the Giants and that changes Minnesota's infield plans. Rumors have swirled about Luis Arraez being a potential trade piece, so the infield group might undergo multiple changes before Opening Day. Kyle Farmer is the team's lone new addition to this group and projects to be the team's starting shortstop. Jose Miranda is being handed the reins at third base following an inconsistent rookie campaign. Still, the front office has confidence that he can be an above-average big-league player. Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff are returning from injury with the expectation that they will return to health in 2023. Outfielders (6): Byron Buxton, Gilberto Celestino, Kyle Garlick, Nick Gordon, Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach** Like with the infield, there is no guarantee this outfield group is finalized at this point in the offseason. Max Kepler's name has been tied to multiple trade rumors, and moving him would free up time in the corner outfield for someone like Matt Wallner. Bryon Buxton will continue to get at-bats in the DH role, so Gilberto Celestino provides some centerfield insurance. It will be intriguing to watch how Nick Gordon responds after posting a 113 OPS+ in his first full big-league season. Like many on the Twins roster, Trevor Larnach is returning from an injury-plagued season. Does Larnach have to enter spring training worried about Wallner taking his roster spot? Rotation (5): Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober On paper, Minnesota's starting rotation looks strong, but three of the five pitchers missed significant time with injuries last season. Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray were the rotation's stalwarts last season, and they will be relied on heavily again in 2023. If injuries strike, the Twins will use the next-man-up philosophy with pitchers like Josh Winder, Louie Varland, Simeon Woods-Richardson, and Jordan Balazovic. Minnesota's front office can certainly look to upgrade this group, but Carlos Rodon, the top free-agent starter, is looking for six years or more. The Twins will never commit to a starter that long, especially with Rodon's injury history. Trading for a starter is also an option, but that will take significant prospect capital that the Twins might not be willing to part with after dealing away players at last year's trade deadline. Bullpen (8): Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagan, Jorge Alcala**, Jovani Moran**, Trevor Megill** Minnesota's backend of the bullpen projects to perform well in 2023, with Jhoan Duran and Jorge Lopez serving as anchors. ZiPS projects feel like the Twins' bullpen is top-heavy, which makes sense considering the recent track record of players expected to be on the roster. Minnesota surprised some by tendering a contract to Emilio Pagan, but the team hopes some of his late-season adjustments will carry over to 2023. Griffin Jax has been working with Driveline Baseball this offseason, which can make him a potential 2023 breakout candidate. Minnesota will have some decisions at the bullpen's backend with other 40-man roster options like Ronny Henriquez and Cole Sands. What changes will happen to the team's roster before Opening Day? Have the Twins improved this winter? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins lost out on Carlos Correa, so the club needs a backup plan to complete the 2023 roster. Here are four pivots the team can make following Correa's departure. Image courtesy of Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports The Twins lost out on Carlos Correa, so the club needs a backup plan to complete the 2023 roster. Here are four pivots the team can make following Correa's departure. Minnesota made contract offers to Carlos Correa that were well above anything the club had previously offered a free agent. Correa signed for 13 years and $350 million, an average annual value of $27 million. For Correa and his agent Scott Boras, it was important for Correa to sign the largest contract for a shortstop in baseball history. Reports had the Twins with a higher AAV but fewer years and a lower total amount. Fans can be upset about the team not going higher, but the team needs to have a contingency plan, and here are four pivots for the Twins. Pivot 1: Sign Dansby Swanson When the offseason started, there were four All-Star caliber shortstops on the market. Correa became the third player to sign, leaving Dansby Swanson as the last man standing. Unfortunately, many teams are looking for an upgrade at shortstop, so the demand for Swanson has increased. Out of the other shortstops, Xander Bogaerts signed the smallest deal at 11 years and $280 million. Minnesota offered Correa more than that amount, so the team could pivot and offer Swanson a similar deal to Bogaerts. There have already been meetings between Swanson and the Twins, which can help with the initial negotiations. Swanson and Correa are very different players, and the Twins might want to pivot to one of the other options below. Pivot 2: Trade for a Shortstop The Twins already traded for one shortstop this winter when the club acquired Kyle Farmer from the Cincinnati Reds. Farmer has served as the Reds' shortstop over the last two seasons while hitting .259/.316/.400 (.716) with an 89 OPS+. There are plenty of other trade targets that could be available this winter. Cleveland's Ahmed Rosario is one year away from free agency and can provide the Twins a bridge to Royce Lewis. The Yankees may be willing to part with Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who was with the Twins shortly last spring. Milwaukee has tough decisions with their core players, so the club might be willing to deal with someone like Willy Adames. At the trade deadline, the Twins made multiple moves that took pieces away from the farm system. Because of this, the team might not be as willing to part with prospects to acquire a shortstop. Pivot 3: Spend on Starting Pitching Minnesota has question marks in the starting rotation, so adding a playoff-caliber starter can help the team. Carlos Rodon was considered the top free-agent starting pitcher, and he is still available. However, reports are that he is looking for at least six years, which is a significant amount for a player with his injury history. It also seems unlikely for the Twins' front office to sign any pitcher to that contract length. They had the opportunity with Jose Berrios and decided it was better to trade him than sign him long-term. Behind Rodon, Nathan Eovaldi is the next-best free-agent starter, as he had a 3.87 ERA in 109 1/3 innings last season. Michael Wacha is another free-agent option after pitching more than 124 innings in the past three full seasons. Those secondary names aren't as intriguing, so the Twins should stick with internal options. Pivot 4: Trade for Starting Pitching Multiple Minnesota players have heard their names swirling in the rumor mill, including Max Kepler and Luis Arraez. One trade target is Pablo Lopez from the Miami Marlins. In 2022, he pitched 180 innings with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. He posted a 174 to 53 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 108 ERA+. Lopez was arbitration-eligible for the first time in 2022, so his earliest free agency is 2025. Other possible trade targets include Cleveland's Shane Bieber, San Diego's Blake Snell, Tampa Bay's Tyler Glasnow, and Milwaukee's Corbin Burnes. Some players would require a hefty prospect package, including some of the team's top prospects. The Twins need to move quickly now that Correa has made his decision. Which pivot do you feel is the best move for the Twins? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Ryan Jeffers wasn't going to be the only catcher on the Twins' roster this year. With Christian Vazquez signed, how can the Twins get the most from the catcher role? Image courtesy of Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports Ryan Jeffers wasn't going to be the only catcher on the Twins' roster this year. With Christian Vazquez signed, how can the Twins get the most from the catcher role? Word broke on Monday evening that the Twins and Christian Vazquez had agreed to a three-year contract. Catcher was one of the team's glaring needs because Ryan Jeffers was the lone catcher on the 40-man roster. Vazquez and Jeffers don't form a perfect platoon, but each player provides strong defensive skills and the potential for offensive upside. Vazquez is 32 years old and served as Boston's primary catcher in recent seasons. He was traded to Houston at last year's trade deadline and helped the Astros to the World Series. Since 2018, he has the fifth-highest defensive runs saved among catchers. Last season, he ranked fifth among AL backstops in SABR's Defensive Index. He ranked in the 71st percentile for pop time to second base and in the 55th percentile in framing. Offensively, Vazquez compiled strong offensive numbers from 2019-20 with the Red Sox. In 185 games, he hit .278/.327/.472 (.799) with 35 doubles, 30 home runs, and a 105 OPS+. His bat has cooled off over the last two campaigns (257 games) as his OPS+ dipped to 87 with 46 doubles and 15 home runs. Outside of Willson Contreras, he was the best available free-agent catcher. Vazquez has started 115 games or more at catcher in three consecutive seasons outside the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign. On paper, the Twins are signing a full-time catcher, with Jeffers moving to a backup role. In recent years, the Twins have preferred having a two-catcher rotation with players roughly splitting time. It may be more logical to use Vazquez two-thirds of the time, with Jeffers getting one-third of the starts. When the Twins drafted him, many viewed Jeffers as a bat-first college catcher, but Twins scouts saw indications that he could be a very good defensive catcher too. He worked on pitch framing after signing with the Twins and ranked in the 66th percentile last season. Jeffers has yet to replicate his offensive output from his rookie season. In 2020, he hit .273/.355/.436 (.791) with three home runs and a 119 OPS+. Over the last two seasons, he has combined to hit .203/.277/.384 (.661) with an 85 OPS+. Minnesota entered last winter believing Jeffers could take on more of a full-time role, but those plans may have been altered with Vazquez's signing. Some thought the Twins might target a left-handed hitting catcher to pair with Jeffers, who is right-handed. It would form a more natural platoon, and Jeffers destroys lefties with an OPS 177 points higher. Vazquez also does better against southpaws, but his .731 OPS is only 49 points higher than when he faces righties. The Twins could try and match up Jeffers against lefties as much as possible, but that takes away favorable at-bats from Vazquez. Minnesota could also convince Vazquez that playing fewer games can help his overall offensive numbers. If he starts 95 games instead of 115, his legs will have less wear and tear. This switch might help him stay healthy and improve his power numbers. The Twins can plan for Vazquez to start 95 games while Jeffers starts 60 games and other catchers fill in around the margins. Unfortunately, injuries are another part of the equation. Vazquez has caught nearly 5,500 innings behind the plate, so he has a lot of miles on his legs. As mentioned above, he has been relatively healthy in recent years. Jeffers has caught 1,329 innings but has never started more than 77 big-league games at catcher (2021 when he made 13 more starts in St. Paul). In 2022, Jeffers missed time with a broken thumb after having minor elbow surgery last offseason. During the 2021 season, he dealt with knee and heel injuries. Minnesota can hope Jeffers is healthy, but he's been limited the last two seasons. Vazquez was a clear target for the Twins, but the organization still lacks other options in the high minors. Minnesota will need other veteran options at the big-league level if and when injuries strike. What are your thoughts on the Vazquez signing? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

If the Twins miss out on Carlos Correa, they can pivot to the other top free agent still on the market. However, Dansby Swanson lacks some traits the Twins have already seen in Correa. Image courtesy of Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports If the Twins miss out on Carlos Correa, they can pivot to the other top free agent still on the market. However, Dansby Swanson lacks some traits the Twins have already seen in Correa. Carlos Correa has clearly been the team's focus throughout the offseason. However, as the team awaits Correa's decision, other free-agent players have signed contracts with other clubs. This situation would leave the Twins with limited options if Correa picked another club like the Giants or the Cubs. There were four top-tier shortstops when the offseason began, and now two names remain. Minnesota can pivot to Dansby Swanson, but he is a different type of player than Swanson. Swanson's Lack of Track Record Like Correa, Swanson was the number one overall pick, but the D-Backs took him out of college. He spent his first seven big-league seasons in the Braves infield and combined to post a .738 OPS with a 95 OPS+. During the 2022 season, Swanson put it all together on both sides of the plate. He hit .277/.329/.447 (.776) with 32 doubles and 25 home runs. Defensively, he ranked third among NL shortstops according to SABR's Defensive Index and won his first Gold Glove. Unfortunately, his lack of offensive track record should make teams leery of how he will age. Clubs must decide if last season was an outlier or if Swanson has put it all together at age 28. Correa's Familiarity with the Team's Core Minnesota got the opportunity to take Correa for a test drive last season, which helped the club see what he means to the team's core. He provides leadership on and off the field, with many of the team's young players viewing him as a mentor. Correa is close to Byron Buxton, Jose Miranda, and other key players who will impact the organization over the next decade. Swanson might be able to build those relationships, but Correa already has an advantage in this area. Correa's baseball IQ is off the charts, which will help him age well and impact future prospects entering the Twins' core. Face of the Franchise Potential Swanson is only seven months older than Correa, but their baseball careers have taken remarkably different paths. Swanson has been a role player on some strong Braves teams over the last decade, but it took him time to put it all together. Correa's career WAR is over 2.7 times higher than Swanson's. Both players have been starting shortstops for a World Series champion, but Correa has played over 40 more postseason games with an OPS that is 128 points higher. For the bulk of the next decade, the Twins and their fans would be able to look to Correa as the best player on the roster. He is the type of player to build a franchise around. Swanson is clearly on Minnesota's radar, but it might be the team doing its due diligence. It will take a significant financial commitment to sign either player, but Correa is a different caliber player than Swanson. If the Twins miss out on Correa, the front office should only turn to Swanson if his market significantly declines in the weeks ahead. Does it make sense for the Twins to pivot to Swanson? How much should the team be willing to pay Swanson? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Projection systems can have pros and cons when providing a glimpse into the team's future. Here are four observations from the Twins' recently released ZiPS projections. Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports Projection systems can have pros and cons when providing a glimpse into the team's future. Here are four observations from the Twins' recently released ZiPS projections. FanGraphs referred to the Twins as "underwhelmingly adequate," which seems like an appropriate description of the team at this juncture. Even if the team signs Carlos Correa, there are holes to fill on a club that has fallen out of contention over the last two seasons. So, what are ZiPS projections, and what do they show for a team? ZiPS is a projection system that uses multi-year statistics to try and predict how players will perform for an upcoming season. More recent seasons are weighted more heavily, and StatCast data has helped to make the model more accurate. There are hundreds of thousands of baselines for pitchers and hitters. ZiPS is a midpoint projection for a player, so some players will outperform their projections, and others will fall short. That being said, a few observations stand out among the Twins' 2023 ZiPS projections. The Bullpen is Top Heavy Jhoan Duran is coming off a tremendous rookie campaign, and his number one comp is Jonathan Broxton. ZiPS projects him to accumulate a 1.1 WAR with a 125 ERA+ and a 14.5 K/9. Jorge Lopez projects to see a small bounce-back after struggling down the stretch for the Twins. The model projects him to have a 0.6 WAR with 8.7 K/9. ZiPS projects Cody Stashak to pitch well in 2023, but the team dropped him from the 40-man roster and is now a free agent. He is coming off surgery for a torn labrum, so the Twins must not feel he can help the 2023 team. Will the Twins try to add to the bullpen before the season starts? Minnesota's Offense Projects to Be Above Average Carlos Correa still isn't part of Minnesota's 2023 roster, but there are positives up and down the line-up. Unfortunately, FanGraphs said, "There's a larger-than-normal dropoff if injuries happen to hit hard." In 2022, injuries were one of the biggest storylines for the club. For the second consecutive season, ZiPS projects Luis Arraez to hit over .300, but his projection has limitations because of his defensive. Royce Lewis is scheduled to return from his second ACL injury in July, and ZiPS still has him projected for more WAR than Max Kepler and Ryan Jeffers. Buxton's Comp is Disappointing Byron Buxton projects to finish with the team's top WAR (3.9) though the model has him limited to 350 plate appearances (10 more than in 2022). He projects to hit .256/.323/.544 with a 134 OPS+ and 22 home runs. ZiPS lists Jeff Heath as the comp for Buxton, who showed plenty of promise but was also often injured. Fans can hope that Buxton plays in over 100 games for the first time since 2017, but it is unlikely to happen at this point in his career. The Starting Rotation is Bland It's hard to look at any projection system for the Twins starters and have faith in what will occur in 2023. Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, and Bailey Ober all dealt with injuries last season, and there's no guarantee they can be relied on for a full workload in 2023. Mahle projects to pitch the second-most innings behind Joe Ryan, but there are still questions about his shoulder. The projections have Ober and Maeda pitching 90 innings or fewer. The Twins project to have a bunch of back of the rotation starters, which can help the team contend. However, the team likely needs another playoff-caliber starter to end the team's playoff losing streak. What thoughts do you have about the team's ZiPS projections? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Dansby Swanson might turn into the Twins’ backup option if Carlos Correa signs with another club. Here’s the latest on Minnesota’s pursuit of Swanson. Image courtesy of Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports Dansby Swanson might turn into the Twins’ backup option if Carlos Correa signs with another club. Here’s the latest on Minnesota’s pursuit of Swanson. Minnesota’s offseason focus has been re-signing Carlos Correa to a long-term contract. However, the team has kept other options open, including pivoting to other free-agent shortstops, including Dansby Swanson. Swanson is time to multiple teams, so let’s review what the Twins have done recently. Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic reported that the Twins met with Swanson over video conference during the recently completed MLB Winter Meetings. Swanson could not attend the meetings in person because he married US Women’s Soccer player Mallory Pugh on Saturday. It’s clear that Minnesota is trying to keep as many options as possible open as they pursue a shortstop. Besides the Twins, four other clubs have shown interest in Swanson, including the Cubs, Cardinals, Red Sox, and Braves. The Cubs are in an interesting spot as a rebuilding team but can use a player of Swanson’s caliber. Boston missed out on re-signing Xander Bogaerts as he was offered a significantly higher contract from the Padres. Swanson would upgrade the current shortstop options in St. Louis, but signing Willson Contreras might limit their spending. The Braves would like to keep Swanson if the deal makes sense for the team and the player. Swanson is coming off his best MLB season, as he posted a 5.7 WAR. In 162 games, he hit .277/.329/.447 (.776) with a 115 OPS+ to go along with 32 doubles and 25 home runs. He was a first-time All-Star, won the NL Gold Glove at shortstop, and finished 12th in the MVP voting. Swanson’s 2022 numbers boosted his career totals as he entered last season with a 90 OPS+. However, he has averaged over 32 doubles and 25 home runs in the last two seasons. Free agent deals have been massive this winter, and there is no guarantee the Twins will want to pay Swanson what he is expected to earn. Philadelphia signed Trea Turner to a $300 million deal, while Xander Bogaerts received $280 million even though he is older than Swanson. Would the Twins be willing to go that high to acquire Swanson? Correa and Swanson will be compared because they are the top free agents left on the market. Swanson is seven months older than Correa. Over the last three seasons, he has hit more home runs and stolen 32 more bases than Correa. Swanson has been healthier recently, as he has only missed 39 games over the last four seasons. That includes just two missed games over the last three seasons. Both Correa and Swanson provide significant positive value on the defensive side of the ball. Swanson won the National League Gold Glove and finished third among NL shortstops in SABR’s SDI. Correa won the Platinum Glove in 2021, but his defensive numbers took a hit last season as he ranked 9th among AL shortstops in SDI. His Outs Above Average ranked in the 97th percentile in 2021 and dropped to the 18th percentile with the Twins. Could that be a sign that Swanson sticks at shortstop longer than Correa? The Twins remain focused on Correa, but Swanson is also an All-Star caliber player that has put it all together over the last few seasons. Do you believe the Twins are interested in Swanson? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article