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LyleCole

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Everything posted by LyleCole

  1. LyleCole
    "becoming another potential mid-round pick who turns into a contributor." I guess I am still waiting for this to be true for the team overall.
  2. LyleCole
    What I find ridiculous is worrying that Outman is out of options if he doesn't play well in Preseason. Only the Twins collect sub .550 OPS+ players like they are trophies. I pull for all of the players to have great seasons. I hope Outman comes down to Ft Myers and rips the cover off the ball and forces the Twins to keep him on the roster going back North. But if he just plays to his career norms, then who cares.
  3. LyleCole
    The problem with your position, which is what the front office has been doing for several years, is ownership simply will not provide enough payroll "to hang on to the stars" in enough quantity to meet those limited payroll objectives. And, an even more important problem, we just did not have these "stars". One of my biggest claims is that the reason to rebuild NOW is that the 2-3 stars the Twins have on their roster are probably at their peak trade value. Buxton played perhaps his best season ever. Maybe in 2021 he was "better", but he only played in 61 games that season. In 2025 he played in the 2nd most games in his career, 126, and only the 3rd time in 11 seasons (that is hard to believe it is that many) he played in more than 100 games. The probability that Byron Buxton has another injury season is pretty substantial, and if he is hurt again it will limit his trade value. Right now he is coming off a big season and his contract is very manageable for the contending teams that would want him. And many of those teams have high end prospects we can plug into the rebuild. Joe Ryan's trade value is huge because he has, at least for the high payroll teams, a modest contract and another year of team control. His trade value at this moment is humongous. Lopez' value is more limited because of his injury plagued 2025 season and Ober's is minimal. Therefore there is less downside risk of losing trade value, and in fact, with both of these potentially quality starters their trade value has 2026 upside. What other "stars" should we hang onto? Is Jeffers a star? Royce Lewis? For the right offer I would move Jeffers, but Lewis' value is low and I just keep him to see if we can get him back.
  4. LyleCole
    If they trade away Buxton, Ryan, and Lopez at what is probably their maximum value they would bring in a good batch of quality prospects. Add that to the prospects we already have, plus some of the existing players on the roster. You get those guys in the major league lineup, get them experience, weed out the ones that cannot perform, and add in some strategic signings/trades to fill whatever holes are left. That is the only real path available to a team like the Twins. It is a difficult one because the pieces have to work. I guess you can say that about the "no rebuild" team as I pointed out, but the prospect path of rebuilding now has the potential to be a longer term event. The risk the Twins have is that Buxton returns to his injuries and his trade value plummets. Ryan has the injury risk as well as losing a year of team control which makes his trade value huge. Lopez risks another injury plagued season and low return, although he like Bailey Ober might be more trade deadline type of values to move, hoping they bounce back. My lineup for the Twins would be OF Wallner-Jenkins-Rodriguez 3B Royce Lewis SS Brooks Lee 2B Luke Kearschall 1B - C- (I think the last two positions are somewhat screwed up by the limited "contending" free agent signings). Maybe you get a 1B prospect returned for Buxton. The starting rotation would to start the year would be Ober, perhaps Lopez... and then a bunch of the college pitching the Twins have drafted. If the prospects like Jenkins and Rodriguez don't pan out, the team will be in for a long streak of losing.
  5. LyleCole
    Of course it was not the "ONLY" answer. There are a lot of dumb answers available to every question. The real analysis is not asking "is it the ONLY answer", but was it the best answer. I guess finding out if it was the best answer is tied to what the objectives of the season are. Do the Twins want to compete for a title in a weak division with no real chance of winning the World Series (or even a first round playoff series)? Or do they want to position the team for a true run at winning? If they get great seasons out of Buxton, Lopez, Ryan, Ober. Rebound great season from Royce Lewis. More consistency from Matt Wallner. A follow up and healthy season from Luke Keaschall. And a breakout by Brooks Lee. And somehow find some relief pitching.... yeah they could win 90-95 games. The problem is that all of those rolls of the dice coming out the way we want are very improbable and htey may have missed the opportunity of trading Buxton, Lopez, and Ryan at the top of their trade values.
  6. LyleCole
    I think a player like Quick should be fast tracked but it needs to be a "structured" fast track. Start him in at least A+ level and move him up levels if he dominates. The Twins have done this a bit more in recent years but they are still somewhat conservative and I would have no problem moving him up to the big leagues if he dominates in AA this season.
  7. LyleCole
    Forget what is a prediction. This is the what I want the prospect list to look like 1.1.27 1. Dasan Hill - Start the season in A+ and blow away the competition. Then move and have good success at AA level. Last season he was -4.1 years vs. his competition in A+. Of course, the Twins really have struggled to get their pitching prospects over the hurdle. But this would be a great start. (I am a bit confused why he is not in your top 5). 2. #3 overall pick. Get him signed quickly and he enters the professional ranks playing well justifying the move to A+ ball in his first year, maybe even AA (assuming he is a college bat or arm). 3. Eduardo Tait - Finally a catching prospect within this system. 4. Charlie Soto - Maybe he can finally stay healthy and demonstrate it with a solid 2026 season at A+ ball. While a small sample size, he showed significant improvement in his BB/9 from 2024 to 2025. 5. Brandon WInokur - This means that his performance and his athletic potential are starting to converge. Frankly, if Riley Quick and Houston are in the top 5 prospect list this time next year it will be disappointing and it means that some players that have higher upside fell off in 2026. That is not wishing Quick and/or Houston ill will though. I hope they have great seasons too.
  8. LyleCole
    The answer is an obvious no the route the Twins are taking. If they were going to go all in on a rebuild, the should for sure trade Joe Ryan this off season and probably trade Lopez if the return is solid. Then hope Ober recovers from whatever is reducing his effectiveness, and trade him before the deadline. But if they are going to play this "LETS PRETEND TO CONTEND", the top 3 of the starting rotation is a team strength and they should play it out and see what happens. Maybe they can get to 87 wins and be in the hunt for a wild card. That is the maximum the ownership is offering fans.
  9. LyleCole
    I never said Bell was a better first baseman. What I did say was that first base is the lowest priority defensive position and that Bell was a significantly better hitter than either France or Clemens. Last season Josh Bell had an OPS+ of 110 and has a career OPS+ of 114. He has never had a season with an OPS+ below 100. By contrast, Kody Clemens had a career year with an OPS+ of 94. He is essentially a 30 year old journeyman player with a career OPS+ of 81. Ty France had a 2025 OPS+ of 88 with the Twins and Jays. France had some decent OPS numbers earlier in his career but was just a 92 OPS+ hitter in 2024 and 88 in 2025. He lacks power for the first base position, hitting just 7 home runs in 490 plate appearances, compared to Bell's 22 in 533 PAs. So, I am not sure how these rankings are computed, and frankly, ranking Kody Clemens as the 20th best first baseman in the MLB seems somewhat dubious. Josh Bell was better statistically as a hitter in almost every category. Again, I personally do not believe this is a good signing. Bell is a 33 year old player signed to a one year deal. He probably makes us better in 2026 than almost every possible player at 1B but I think it is better for the long term competitiveness of the Twins to go with a younger player who has some potential. Hell, bring in Aaron Sabato and give him 40 games to see if he can make contact with the baseball. I doubt he can, but what is the difference.
  10. LyleCole
    But Bell plays a defensive position that is the lowest on the spectrum. The incremental hitting far outweighs any difference in the fielding prowess of Ty France, or any other prospective Twin 2026 first baseman. If you really expect the Twins to be marginal competitors, this isnt a terrbile signing. The real problem with this signing is that it is shift in the "Roster Age" spectrum in the wrong direction. He will be 33 years old in 2026. Frankly, while I agree that Josh will bit better in 2026 than probably any of the potential prospect or other younger options, in the overall scheme what difference does it make. In the end, the entire problem is summarized by the contract he signed. One year, $7 million with some sort of "mutual" contract arrangement for 2027 (from Spotac). I understand the rational of a one year deal, but what it truly means deep down inside is that the ownership simply will not commit to the team and the fans. If Bell plays below his expected norm, we move on. If he plays near his expected norm, my guess is we unload him for marginal value at or near the trade deadline. If he exceeds expectations, he prices himself out of the 2nd year and moves onto a team that will pay him. This is a short term, mediocre fix to a long term problem. Shoving a 33 year old player into this position just delays finding the long term solution we truly need.
  11. LyleCole
    Instead, how about this. You NAME a single low bonus international signing by the Twins that has been even moderately successful. If you look at the Twins drafts from 2000 - 2022 the Twins have drafted 76 catchers in the 16th through end of the draft. The total number of games played from those 76 catchers: 0. In fact, if you look at the catchers the Twins have drafted in rounds 3 - 10 in that period, the Twins have drafted and signed 18 players. Their success rate: 1/18. Only 2 of those 18 ever had a plate appearance for the Twins: Mitch Garver and Chris Herman. Garver had 1070 plate appearances and a reasonable 7.3 WAR for the Twins. Herman had 389 PAs for a WAR of -1.2. I rest my case about the expected value of a 17 year old low international bonus signee.
  12. LyleCole
    You are not forced to keep a Rule V player on the 26 man roster. If they you don't, they are returned to the original team and $50k of the Rule V fee is refunded. As for this specific player, I don't see the Twins "tied" to Jackson whatsoever. While I get $1.8 million is a lot of the Twins, why HAND a player with such limited MLB performance the backup roster position? If there is internal roster competition, why even bring Jackson in. Just let those prospects compete in Spring Training. Then either bring the best of the competition North, or go dumpster diving for a catcher similar to Alex Jackson. While its fun to think of "lotto jackpot", as I stated above the Expected Value of a lottery ticket is zero. Drafting and keeping Susac, a player who was a recent high draft pick and reasonable minor league statistics for the position (.785 overall OPS) with a .832 AAA OPS with 18 home runs (might be stadium elevated) has a much higher expected return. I feel the same with other Rule V available hitters (mentioned in some of the articles). We do not exactly have a long line of eligible 1B prospects in the system. So, again, for $50k at risk, why not take one of them (I forgot the name of the guy I thought was a reasonable selection) and even play him 40-80 games in the regular season? If he plays well, ok. You got a good selection. If not, return him and it cost the $50k. None of those players that were suggested by TD were drafted. But for a team like the Twins, the risk reward of a Rule V selection is significant.
  13. LyleCole
    Not sure if you understand the concept of Expected Value then. The probability of this player becoming a valuable MLB player is essentially 0.
  14. LyleCole
    The EV of the player is essentially zero.
  15. LyleCole
    But this "victory" has the net positive present value of about $72,000 in cash.
  16. LyleCole
    No. They just seem to lack a confidence in their actual talent evaluation and I think that has limited their ability to maintain the team and rebuild it. They would rather ride Jonah Bride or Ryan Fitzgerald than bring up any of their internal prospects. I think their minor league development concept has been too "station to station" and they are too risk adverse to be in charge of a full rebuild. So, I think the Twins will pretend again and try to split the middle. They keep the core of Lewis-Buxton-Jeffers (trading away a AAA catcher drafted in the Rule V draft seems to indicate that they plan on keeping him) Lopez-Ryan-Ober core. They will try their luck at finding a closer and set up relievers on the cheap. This team, led by its ownership, has always shot for being a "wild card" rather than a true contender.
  17. LyleCole
    You have to wonder what San Francisco knows that the Twins don't, or at least what they think they know. They almost certainly know more about Caraballo than any other team and preferred bringing in Susac. Caraballo signed for a bonus of $172,000. Even if the Twins paid the full $100k Rule V fee (they did apparently get back cash from Giants), they are in theory $72k ahead. And they can develop this prospect over time rather than having to put Susac on the MLB roster the entire year. I get the Twins probably got what they wanted in this trade. They didn't really like anyone in the Rule V draft so they got an asset for their trouble. The problem with this approach is I think it is arrogant. Their talent evaluation has resulted in a 40 man roster that includes Ryan Fitzgerald, Jhonny Pereda, Ryan Kreidler, Mickey Gasper, James Outman and that is after they did a major purge of other at best replacement level players . WHY NOT TAKE A CHANCE ON A RULE V PLAYER? Bring that player in to compete in Spring Training. Maybe even keep them on the active roster to begin the season. TRY SOMETHING. How they could not see Susac as at least competition for Alex Jackson is a mystery to me. Maybe this kid outplays Jackson. There were several players and pitchers available that I think could have been at least competitive for a roster spot on this team. Rule V is a low risk system that can potentially bring talent to your organization. But it is just another that the front office seems to disdain, probably because they want the flexibility to find sub-500 OPS 30+ year old waiver wire pickups.
  18. LyleCole
    You can't? The point is the route the Twins chose in 1982 meant he was NOT blocking Puckett. But what happens if the Twins decide to move Jimmy Eisenreich to AA in 1982 instead of putting him as the starting centerfielder on the major league team in 1982? Kirby was drafted in 1982 and played Rookie ball. Then in 1983 they move Kirby to A and Jimmy to AAA. Your point about "fast tracking" is just agreeing to my point. YOu move Eisenreich to the majors after just A ball. YOU skip AA for Kirby. You move the prospects up fast. They either show or they don't. But if you move station by station, it blocks the entire rebuild because you don't get the inforamtion fast enough.
  19. LyleCole
    They had Eisenreich on the 1982 opening day roster AND starting lineup. But Kirby represents another aspect of the full rebuild: it needs to extend to through the entire organization. Look at Kirby's career. 3rd overall pick of the JANUARY Phase of the 1982 draft. The Jan Phase meant that he got 305 plate appearances in Rookie Ball in 1982. In 1983 he played at Visalia, A ball. Then in 1984 he played AAA and then 121 games with the Twins. His OPS in AAA in 1984 was sub .700. The Twins moved him rapidly through the system. In a rebuild you cannot move methodically and slow. You have to get your prospects up, especially the more advanced college drafted players. Another critical point I will raise is that it is almost impossible to rebuild 100% of the players needed on a MLB roster. A team like the Twins needs to do MOST of the rebuild internally, and once that core group matures fill in the blanks with players like Al Newman, DANNNN Gladden, Jeff Reardon, Juan Berenguer, and Bert Blyleven/Roy Smalley reincarnations. The 1991 team added Shane Mack (probably the best player on the 1991 team), Chili Davis, Brian Harper, and Jack Morris.3 But you got to get to that critical mass with the internal prospects (I include players like Tapani who were prospects acquired in trades). The Twins CANNOT rebuild via free agency.
  20. LyleCole
    AS I said a long time ago, rebuild is the way to go. The trade value of Byron Buxton and Joe Ryan are at a maximum because they are coming off healthy seasons and their compensation levels are minimal to the teams that would be looking to acquire them. I would add Ryan Jeffers to that group too. I would trade Lopez only if you get a solid offer. Otherwise, keep Lopez and Bailey Ober and see if they can produce healthy results to start 2026. Then move them to a contender. The management MUST move the young prospects to the forefront. Jenkins and Rodriguez should be in the opening day lineup. Culpepper should be too. I would keep Royce Lewis and hope that he can turn it around because he could still fit into any competitive timeframe. Keep Brooks Lee as a super utility guy too. As I have mentioned before, rebuilds take time. Not every prospect you bring up is going to be a successful major league player no matter what their performance was in the minors. Not every player will stay healthy. One of the examples I use from the 1982 Twins Rebuild was the original center fielder they plugged into the lineup was Jim Eisenreich, who went from A ball to starting in centerfield for the Twins. But Eisenreich unfortunately flamed out even, and it wasn't until 1984 that they brought Pucket up. If they wait until 1983, or even 1984 to put Eisenreich into the lineup, it probably pushes Kirby back at least for some time. Get GROUP A of players up to the major leagues. Find out who can play and who cannot. Then bring in players to replace them from the farm.
  21. LyleCole
    What value can a 41 year old player possibly have for the Twins. Seriously. If the Twins litter their roster with 30+ year old replacement level why bother? One of the secrets of rebuilding for a team like the Twins is to rebuild cohesively, not piecemeal. If you have a bunch of old replacement level players like Turner taking developmental at bats from young players the Twins are foolish. But that is what I expect, btw. And, the time to trade Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton IS NOW. This offseason is the time of their maximum value. Lopez is another issue in that his value is probably down because of his injuries, but you trade him if you can get a realistic offer. Otherwise, keep him along with Bailey Ober and hope they bounceback enough to be trade bait during the season. Then you pack your team with your current prospects, plus the high end prospects you get for Buxton and Ryan. Rebuild giving the kids a long rope to develop.
  22. LyleCole
    Really? Name them.
  23. LyleCole
    The guy had a .825 and .826 OPS at AAA. Hit more than 25 doubles and more than 15 home runs in both opportunities. I like his 70-118 BB to K ratio which shows a reasonable level of professional at bats. He actually had better AAA statistics than any at the lower minors but has always posted solid OBP. Not sure if the increased slugging is a ball park impact (Scranton Willkes-Barre). When I look at the Twins roster I do not see real first base prospects with power potential. So I am taking this dude in the Rule V draft, paying the $100,000 and plugging him in for 80-100 games as the first baseman. If he can't play, just return him and it cost $50k. If he shows some promise, then perhaps we have found an option at the position we can move forward with. Remember, wins and losses really do not count. Developing players to go into the future does.
  24. LyleCole
    Proven mediocrities with limited upside at best that will cost a lot more money. Lets go with a guy who hasn't proven their limitations, yet.
  25. LyleCole
    In Roden's professional baseball career he has played exactly 1 inning as a first baseman, in 2023, at A+ level. I am going to give Roden about the same type of run as hypothetical Rule V pick Rumfield, about 80-100 games. 20 in left. 20 in right. 40 as the LH DH. I am not going to platoon him to start because we need to see how he handles major league left handed pitching except as the DH. That will give Roden about a full season of MLB experience under his belt. These are the types of prospects you try to expose fast, rather than piddling along for years up and down the minors. But you have to be willing to lose games, which the Twins should be in 2026 and you have to be willing to accept failure. Failure just means NEXT GUY UP.
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