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Kenny Powers

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Everything posted by Kenny Powers

  1. Kenny Powers
    Do some teams pay that? Yes. Does that apply to these guys? Debatable. DeSclafani is almost 34 years old. His last two seasons (combined): 23 starts. Record: 4-10. 118 innings pitched. 96 Ks. 5.16 ERA. 1.37 WHIP. 4.43 FIP. Is that worthy of a $15M+ deal? If so, I would do a hard pass myself. Topa is almost 33. He had a decent year last year. But looking at his historical stats, last year was an outlier. I don't trust it. Especially with his injury history. He pitched the following innings leading up to last year: 2020 - 7.2 total 2021 - 18.1 total 2022 - 27 total If he was durable and had a longer track record of success - yes, he might be worth what you say. But I'm not seeing as is. Looks like a Hyundai with 200,000 miles on it to me. It might run fine now, but don't expect that to last...
  2. Kenny Powers
    This is where my head is at. And I'd also change the description some posters are using of "solid bullpen arm" for Topa to "had one good year". I personally wouldn't trust he can repeat that. He's 33 years old and has a history of arm problems. IMO, guys like DeScalfina and Topa are normally floating around out there as Free Agents to be had for nothing (think Matt Magill or Brock Stewart). Both guys are older than Polanco which is disappointing to me as I hoped to get back some building blocks vs. patches. So to me, this was basically trading Polanco for a top 100 prospect. I'm ok with that...but it's another one of the Falvey trades where I feel like we might have given up more value than we received. IDK. Obviously we'll see how it plays out. It just feels like thrift store pick up on our part to me.
  3. Kenny Powers
    I think you have to be especially patient with International draft prospects since many of them are signed as 16 or 17 year olds. Using Kepler and Polanco as examples....it took each about 7 years to establish themselves as MLB players. But they were still only 22 (Polanco) or 23 years old (Kepler) when they finally did become MLB regulars. I'll bring up Yennier Cano again because he was an exception (signed as a 25 year old) and contributed on the MLB level within a couple years. But even he didn't have any success until last year (age 29).
  4. Kenny Powers
    You might be referencing a different prospect list, but looking at the Twins website "Top 30 prospects", I count eight International signings (NAME and Twins Top 30 Prospect rank): 1.) EMMANUEL RODRIGUEZ (#3) 2.) DANNY DE ANDRADE (#10) 3.) JOSE RODRIGUEZ (#12) 4.) JOSE SALAS (#17) Drafted by Marlins, but acquired in Luis Arraez trade 5.) RICARDO OLIVAR (#21) 6.) YASSER MERCEDES (#22) 7.) BYRON CHOURIO (#26) Drafted by Marlins, but acquired in Luis Arraez trade 8.) YUNIOR SEVERINO (#28) Plus we had Yennier Cano (traded for Jorge Lopez) who was pretty successful last year for the O's. And of course Kepler and Polonco are former International signings. I probably missed some guys too, but if I did, I'm sure someone else will chime in. Anyway - I'm actually surprised at how many of these guys show up as top 30 team prospects.
  5. Kenny Powers
    I knew that name rang a bell! I just looked him up. We actually traded for him to start 2023 (January 10th). Then we designated him to make room for Michael Taylor. He ended up being claimed by the White Sox. So, now we got him back. BTW, the guy we gave up in the trade was an 18 year old pitcher from the DSL Cristian Jimenez. He didn't do great this past year in the FCL (5.12 ERA and 1.34 WHIP).
  6. Kenny Powers
    I like the Morales signing. He put up an .827 OPS with a solid batting average. Certainly worth a flier as a potential late bloomer. We had a similar situation last year when we signed Camargo and he went on to have a break out season. We have a little catching pipeline forming: Level/Player (age) - OPS MLB: Jeffers (26) - .858 AAA: Camargo (24) - .826 AA: Pat Winkle (23) - .787 A+: Cossetti (23) - .898 and Cardenas (24) - .779 A: Ricardo Olivar (22) - .855
  7. Kenny Powers
    I was hoping Henriquez would get a shot this past season since he's young and been a top prospect for several years. But if you look at his AAA stats, he's definitely not too good for AAA. He still has work to do. Also, it looks like he throws around 93 which is fine, but not exactly flame thrower material that teams drool over. So, I get why they dropped him. Every year they pick up free agents (like Brock Stewart or Megill) that can probably be better - at least short term.
  8. Kenny Powers
    I don't think he OP meant it literally as in zero chance. I agree with his opinion that it might be unlikely he's more than a UT guy. But to your point - you never know. Eduardo Escobar in an example of someone who broke out of the UT mode to be much more. I didn't see that coming at the time.
  9. Kenny Powers
    I certainly think he moves Nick Gordon off the roster for next year. Down the road, there are a few other guys that might push for UT playing time including: Martin, Prato, Helman, Schobel etc. To your point though, he has been a nice addition to this year's team. I don't think he will ever be more than a UT guy - but that's just my opinion. It's nice to have guys that can move around and not hurt you.
  10. Kenny Powers
    Buxton went to the DL because of a hamstring. I don't think it's unrealistic to think he could be recovered enough if we make it to the next round. He first went on DL August 1st and was playing CF for the Saints 30 days later. Of course - he aggravated it as you noted. But it's now mid-October (another 45 days later). The hammy should be healed by now. I know he has a chronic knee issue too, however that seems to be something he can play with. Last reports I saw were he was hitting live batting practice before the Wild Card series. I think Royce Lewis needed to be the DH for the start of the playoffs is part of what kept Buxton off the roster. But Royce is playing 3rd now - so that opens up a possibility of Buxton being available to contribute there. Of course - we have to advance or it's all moot. I'm not sure what's "counterfactual" about anything I wrote?
  11. Kenny Powers
    I don't think we can expect 550-600 ABs/year from either guy based on their history. My whole point was hoping we could squeeze some juice at the right time (next round - if we can get there). That's part of what makes the playoffs so fun for me is watching guys come up big (regardless of what they did during the regular season).
  12. Kenny Powers
    Well...we have to get to next week first. Yesterday was a big let down. We shall see.
  13. Kenny Powers
    I don't see them as "worlds apart" myself. Look at the four years prior to this season: Buxton: 976 AB; .258 BA; 70 HRs; .874 OPS Correa: 1558 AB; .281 BA; 74 HRs; .840 OPS They were each an All Star one time in those four years. Both guys brought excellent defense at key positions. Like I wrote before - these were the two engines that should be driving this team. Seeing Correa start to come on just reminded me of how this team was supposed to look.
  14. Kenny Powers
    Even if the Twins training staff determine he's healthy enough to play CF for the next round? You still would prefer Taylor to Buxton? I noted in a previous post that Taylor had a career year for us and essentially matched Buxton's offense this year (with Buxton being a DH). But thinking about it more...I could easily spin that the other way and say Taylor's best year with the bat matches Buxton's worst year. If healthy, I'm not sure there would be much difference on defense. IDK. I see both sides. Just thought I'd spin it out there to read how other's see it. I'm just really pumped to see Correa step up. It's a different team with him leading.
  15. Kenny Powers
    I can understand and appreciate your stance. Taylor actually had a career year for us and essentially matched Buxton's (DH) offense during the regular season. You can't ask for more than that. That's why I originally didn't want to see Buxton on this playoff roster. But again - Buxton/Correa are stars with track records. IF they are healthy, it could be pretty fun. Just a big "if" though.
  16. Kenny Powers
    This is where my head is at. Obviously I wouldn't want to add the Buxton we saw during the regular season (basically a DH). But as I wrote in my original post - IF, he can play CF (meaning healthy), I wouldn't mind seeing if he too can rise to the occasion under the big lights. I agree with you that a healthy Buxton can certainly match anything Taylor is doing the field and obviously the additional offensive potential. Anyway - I'm sure they know where Buxton is at health wise and are handling it accordingly. It was just me thinking out loud after seeing Correa star so far. Buxton and Correa were supposed to be the two main engines this season and it would be pretty cool if they both caught fire in the playoffs.
  17. Kenny Powers
    I was pretty down on both Buxton and Correa this year mostly because the cost vs. production. Big money brings big expectations and both guys had down years. However, the playoffs are made for star players and watching Correa rise to the occasion is softening my stance on Buxton. I still wouldn't want to add him as a only a DH. But man, if the guy can still play some CF, I kind wouldn't mind activating him to see if he can do what Correa is doing. We're not really getting anything from Taylor, so the bar is pretty low right now.
  18. Kenny Powers
    Thinking about this more, I believe you are right and I am wrong. I had in my Danielle Hunter who the Vikings had under contract and he was holding out for a new/better deal a while back. But I think that's because NFL contracts are generally not guaranteed. You are correct that MLB seems to have a better handle on that (NBA as well).
  19. Kenny Powers
    Does the "lock them up early at a discount" really work? I'm getting flash backs to guys who wanted to renegotiate because their current contract was no longer at market value. I don't think there are really any true discounts anymore. People are generally paid what they are worth once their rookie deals are over. Take full advantage of our years of cost control. If he stays healthy and lives up to the hype - he will be paid accordingly regardless (IMO).
  20. Kenny Powers
    The Buxton decision is easy (for me anyway). I haven't seen anything to believe he's healthy to play in the field and we have better options for DH right now. So - I don't need him on the roster anymore this year. Get healthy and come back next year to take your CF job back. The Game 1 start is very difficult. On the service, it should be Joe Ryan. But Ober has really been pitching great. This is a tough call. My gut says they go with Ryan to avoid any hurt ego/feelings. But I don't think they could go wrong starting Ober. I think Maeda is the designated long man to come in and save the bullpen in case of blowout. Funderburk - I feel he will be useful as a lefty. I wouldn't drop him. Especially as these series start to go longer. Stevenson (while situationally useful), I think is the one guy I feel is a luxury spot right now. If they make any changes, I feel his spot would be the one to use.
  21. Kenny Powers
    IDK. Just because a guy has a career playoff OPS of 3.417 - now we have to lock him up? Seriously, I get where the OP is coming from and I really don't care either way because I know he's going to be locked up for a while regardless. My own two cents would be to hold off until he gets a full year or so under his belt. I realize it's not a perfect comparison (Lewis is far better), but as another cautionary example - last year Miranda was looking like a future stud. A year later and I'm not sure he's even in their plans. Things change in a hurry. Lewis sure looks the part. But he's also been hurt a lot. I want to see him settle into a permanent position while maintaining his current excellence with the bat before locking him up.
  22. Kenny Powers
    I was excited about our BP coming into the playoffs and they passed their first test. I'm sure I wasn't the only one who thought "oh crap - here comes the game tying HR" after Duran walked Merrifield to bring up Springer. These games come down to somebody just making a play. Fortunately, we had several guys step up including Solano grabbing that last line shot to end it. Let's keep it rolling!
  23. Kenny Powers
    I agree with you. But...part of me also thinks circumstances can also create stagnation. Celestino started 2021 at AA at age 22. Then was promoted to AAA where he hit .290 with a .827 OPS at AAA in 2021. And he got his first promotion to the majors that year as well. Things were looking pretty good for only age 22. Last year at age 23, he was back in the majors because of Buxton's health. He only had 183 ABs at AAA up to that point. In a perfect world, he would have been back to AAA - but they needed him to play CF. His second season at the MLB level was better than his first go around, but he still only hit .238. Surprisingly, that batting average was better than: Polonco, Larnach, Wallner, Kepler and Buxton. Of course we all know batting average is only half the equation and his lack of power is certainly a drawback. It's too bad he couldn't have had more time in AAA to see if they could have developed him more. At the end of the day, you make your own breaks in this world. He didn't hit this year at AAA, so I guess I'm at peace with removing him from the 40. Martin can fill that CF depth void and provide greater positional flexibility as others have noted.
  24. Kenny Powers
    I agree with the assessment of the writer. My only addition would be Alcala. He's another flame thrower with a decent track record. I think he's healthy. His rehab stats at AAA: 7 innings, 7 Ks. 1.17 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. I understand the hesitation to rely on these guys coming back from injury, but it's nice to have him as depth in case something happens. I really like that they built this pen vs. trying to trade for guys like last year. There is risk in trading and there are risks in doing nothing. But I like this bullpen on paper and am excited to see what they can do in the playoffs.
  25. Kenny Powers
    For me, it was great to see Paddock has his velocity up. He was a 95 mph guy in 2021. Dropped to 93.5 mph last year. Now it looks like he's already back to 95 - fantastic! If you step back and squint....there is a pitching pipeline coming through for next year: 1.) Paddock 2.) Varland 3.) Festa 4.) Enlow 5.) Canterino 6.) Raya 7.) Ohl 8.) Nowlin 9.) Lewis 10.) Culpepper Plus whatever emerges from our recent draft. Some of those guys will be competing for starting spots next year and others might be ready to fill in our bullpen.
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