NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin

My bet would be a Mexican team (Monterrey, DF, Laredo, Tijuana) and Nashville, but regardless, a division realignment would likely result in some gaps in the "South" divisions in both conferences. AL: East- BOS, NYY, BAL, TOR North- MIN, CWS, DET, MIL (switch) South- TB, TEX, HOU, TBD West- KC, SEA, LAA, LV NL: East- NYM, PHI, ATL, WSH North- CHC, CIN, PIT, STL South- MIA, ARI, CLE (switch), TBD West- LAD, SF, COL, SD I tried my best to preserve historic rivalries, and I feel the only team that gets the short end of the stick is Cleveland, though the rest of the division makes sense, as Phoenix and Miami have large Hispanic populations and I would put the Mexican team in this division. The AL South could become a powerhouse with three big-market teams and the Rays, as the Nashville club would be similar to the Padres financially in that they are a mid-market without a football or basketball team. I think the division realignment could be bad for the Twins, as they'd probably end up as the least financially capable franchise in their division. One could hope that we could be in the SEA/LAA/LV division instead of KC, and we'd probably be the best franchise in the division.

The Twins should count their blessings that a Sandy Leon or Jose Godoy were not required this year. Despite the fact that I own his jersey, I do believe that Gary Sanchez catching 91 different ballgames last year was a big reason why the pitching staff was not great (I think the Twins had an ERA in the mid 5.00s when Gary caught), especially down the stretch. Christian Vazquez may be overpaid, but he provides stability, experience, and support to our pitching staff, and I do not think it would be wise to greatly shift the usage of him/Jeffers. Jeffers is a lot better on offense, but Vazquez has tons of postseason experience, and I'd like to have him behind the plate for Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan starts.

Duran has not been as dominant as in April/May lately, but he is still pretty good. BS/L Before @BAL series: 4 in 28 APPs BS/L After @BAL series: 5 in 29 APPs (07/30 was counted as just one, despite him being charged for both a BS and L) Neither blown save in the first half resulted in a Twins loss, and he did not have any outings in which he surrendered multiple runs. I am not saying he's the same pitcher right now that he was the first year and a half of his career, but 5 BS/L in 29 APPs is not enough to warrant a change at closer, much less one that puts an inexperienced starter in a high-leverage role for the postseason.

Sabermetrics are great for looking at future performance and raw talent/ability. When discussing awards and past performances, it seems ludicrous to use expected stats and sabermetrics. Tell me how effective he was, not how effective he should have been. For that reason, I think the voters should lean heavily on IP, ERA, WAR, and WPA for pitchers. Sonny would probably need to finish the year with a couple of scoreless starts and hope for a blowup from Cole towards the end of the year. The vote is probably going to be split a few ways, and I think Sonny could be in the top-3 on most ballots if he gets his ERA below 2.90.

They would bring diverse elements such as fear, surprise, ruthless efficiency, an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope, and some nice red uniforms to the White Sox

Maybe more than a priest. They need the Spanish Inquisition.

If I am not mistaken, Ober's fastball also features a lot of life and maintains its velo pretty well. I think the true "effective" velocity is closer to 95-96mph, which is probably a big contributor to the success of his changeup.

As mentioned, he was an All-Star last year and put up MVP numbers the year prior. Maybe his knees went past the point of no return in the past 12 months, but I am not reaching four or five years back to say that Buxton is capable of extraordinary things.

A healthy Buxton is better than anything the Twins have had this year. I don't know if he will ever be healthy again, but he was an All-Star last year and put up MVP numbers over a couple-month span in '21. That Byron Buxton is the Twins' best player.

The Cubs had the same record in 2019, and I would argue that their farm was probably worse. The Cubs have achieved about the same amount as the Red Sox since 2019, yet they are a) probably going to play in October this year, b) have a top-five farm system, and c) have competent starting pitching. Bloom paid the luxury tax last season, and I think the narrative that he had to make substantial cuts to salary is dubious. He should have used the gargantuan payroll last season ($236M) to acquire pitchers capable of holding a spot in the rotation, or he should have fully committed to signing/drafting young pitchers to fill out the farm. The Red Sox were not a great situation for an executive, but how many places are? In St Louis, they demand championship-caliber baseball on a league-average payroll every year. The Guardians and Rays have set high standards on bottom-5 payrolls. The Brewers are massively overpaying Yelich, have had injury problems with their starters, they are in the bottom half of the league in terms of payroll. My least favorite line of argument is, "this guy faced some adversity and failed; therefore, the failure was caused by the adversity" especially when the adversity is relatively minor. Chaim Bloom had four years and a ton of money to make it work, and honestly, he left his club a lot worse than he found it.

All of the exciting Red Sox prospects are hitters. According to MLB.com's rankings, they have only 2 pitchers in their top-15, neither of which are in their top-8. Both guys have some legit concerns about their futures as a starter (they're both under 6' 1", 170lbs, and they both have issues with control), and their pitching pipeline is basically nonexistent for starters, hence why they had to hand out so many one-year deals. Overall, their farm ranks right around the Twins', and considering how the Orioles, Cubs, and Nationals were able to build their farms over the same timeframe, I am not convinced that Bloom did a particularly good job of building organizational depth.

It's much easier to find above-average offensive contributors than it is to find above-average starters. With Pablo Lopez, we don't have to worry about 1/5th of the rotation for at least five years, while Solano can step in and be a key offensive contributor. I would much rather have Lopez and Solano than Chris Archer and Arraez.

Because it's actually possible. It's much easier to squeeze 50 IP from a shaky reliever than it is to squeeze 150 IP from a shaky starter. The Braves are getting great value from McHugh, Tonkin, and Yates, the Orioles have Coulombe and Perez, the Rays have Diekman and Adam, the Dodgers have Miller and Brasier, and the Astros have Neris. It's pretty easy to fill the middle of your bullpen with cheap veterans or waiver claims, and these elite teams are able to make it work.

Introduction Today (09/14), the Boston Red Sox fired their CBO, Chaim Bloom. He was hired from the Rays organization after the 2019 season, which followed a trend of big market teams hiring their principal decision-maker from small market teams (Farhan Zaidi, Andrew Friedman, and Mark Shapiro were all hired within 5 years of Bloom's hiring). At the time, the Red Sox were coming off a disappointing 84-win season, 24 wins fewer than the 2018 total. Dave Dombrowski's (the previous CBO) wheeling and dealing took a farm ranked in the top-5 in 2016 to a bottom-5 farm by the end of 2018. Although the team had immense talent at the MLB level, there wasn't a lot of depth in the minors (especially arms), and the organization needed to retool in a certain sense. At the time, the roster looked like this: Lineup- C: Christian Vazquez 1B: Mitch Moreland 2B: Brock Holt 3B: Rafael Devers SS: Xander Bogaerts LF: Andrew Benintendi CF: Jackie Bradley RF: Mookie Betts DH: JD Martinez Bench- 2C: Sandy Leon INF: Michael Chavis 4OF: Sam Travis UTL: Eduardo Nunez Rotation- SP: Chris Sale SP: Eduardo Rodriguez SP: Nathan Eovaldi SP: Rick Porcello SP: David Price Bullpen- CL: Brandon Workman SU: Ryan Brasier SU: Matt Barnes MR: Marcus Walden MR: Josh Taylor MR: Colton Brewer LR: Andrew Cashner Pitching was a big culprit of their downfall; the Red Sox conceded 647 runs in '18, compared to a whopping 828 in '19. Disaster years from Eovaldi and Porcello (ERAs above 5.50) and paying $60M for Chris Sale and David Price to pitch a combined 4.35 ERA over 255.2 IP did not help either. Brandon Workman had a sensational year (3.6 WPA and 108 K with a 1.88 ERA), but the bullpen was mediocre and definitely not enough to support the horrid starting staff. Big Decisions (2020 season) As mentioned above, the two biggest holes in the Red Sox organization were the pitching staff and the farm, while the lineup actually scored more runs in '19 than they did in '18. As such, it would have made sense for Chaim Bloom to target pitching in a major way. Instead, he brought in former Twins Trevor Hildenberger and Martin Perez, as well as Collin McHugh (who opted out due to COVID) and Zach Godley. They then traded two of their best relievers, Workman and Hembree, for Nick Pivetta and Connor Seabold, as well as offing David Price in the Mookie Betts deal (more on that later). It's hard to make the case that they significantly improved their pitching organizationally in this season. On the hitting side, Chaim Bloom made a change that will likely be attached to his legacy for the rest of his life, regardless of whatever else he goes onto accomplish. One of the narratives from this trade that I don't feel is discussed often enough is the fact that Boston did not receive a single pitcher in the deal. Originally, (as Twins fans should know) Brusdar Graterol was one of the pieces of a potential three-team trade that was supposed to head to Boston. However, Boston changed their minds after learning that Graterol would likely need to spend his career in the bullpen due to health concerns. The Dodgers and Red Sox altered their trade slightly, which ended up being Betts, Price, and cash for Verdugo, Downs, and Wong. Although Walker Buehler was likely off the table, I feel that Dustin May would have been an equivalent asset to a starting pitcher, Graterol (What Boston thought they were getting from MN), and Boston should have pushed hard to nab a starter in this deal. The trade was generally seen as an underpay by the Dodgers, which was highlighted by the fact that they signed him to a monster extension 5 months after the trade. Three and a half years after the trade, it looks like Chaim Bloom traded a top-3 player in baseball for salary relief, an above-average OF, a backup catcher, and a bust. I am not going to knock Bloom for the fact that he traded Betts; there were rumors and speculation that it was impossible to sign Betts to an extension (either payroll concerns or Betts himself), but he should have gotten more, and he should have acquired arms. Brief Success (2021 season) The Rule 5 draft proved to be very impactful for the Red Sox, as they tapped into their rival's endless supply of near MLB-ready arms, poaching Kaleb Ort and Garrett Whitlock from the Yankees. They also signed Japanese reliever Hirokazu Sawamura while resigning Martin Perez. They also traded for Adam Ottavino (and his underwater contract), giving up only PTBNL. Kike Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe, Marwin Gonzalez, and Garrett Richards were other FA additions. The 2020-21 offseason featured another big trade. Andrew Benintendi was sent to the Royals for Josh Winckowski and a few throwaway pieces. While Winckowski has turned into one of their best bullpen arms, the Red Sox waived Joel Payamps on the day of the trade, who is now one of the best relievers in baseball. The Red Sox' success was mostly due to their rotation going from "downright atrocious" to "acceptably average." Nathan Eovaldi pitched like a #1b or #2a starter, while Perez, Pivetta, Richards, and Rodriguez all pitched average, with all of their ERA+ numbers being between 96 and 103. Their bullpen was pretty bad, Garrett Whitlock was the only guy with an ERA under 3.00, and he only finished with two saves. The Red Sox made it to the ALCS, but predictably, their pitching fell apart: they gave up five or more runs in 5/6 games against the vaunted Astros. Final Downfall (2022-23) The offseason following their ALCS defeat would have been a great time to spend money on an ace. Max Scherzer, Kevin Gausman, Carlos Rodon, Robbie Ray, and Marcus Stroman would have been legit aces for Chaim Bloom's team. Instead, they replaced Eduardo Rodriguez with Rich Hill and Michael Wacha (both on 1-year deals) and decided to give 20M/year to Trevor Story, despite already having franchise cornerstones on the left side of the infield. Predictably, the Red Sox failed to capitalize on their breakout campaign, with the pitching remaining stagnantly mediocre and the offense taking a big step back. Nick Pivetta (4.56 ERA) was the only starter with enough innings to qualify for league-wide stat rankings, and the patchwork bullpen did little to stymy opposing offenses. The Red Sox saw their (persistent) issues with arms and... decided to do nothing, as they had done every offseason under Bloom. They also let two of their biggest offensive contributors walk, leaving a sour taste in the mouth of many Sox fans. They let many of their one-year additions walk (as well as their #1, Eovaldi), and brought in a new set. The 2022/23 crop has really bolstered the 'pen, but Corey Kluber did not pan out, and the Red Sox were forced to move two of their better relievers, Houck and Whitlock, to the rotation with poor results (both guys own an ERA North of 5.00). Paxton and Sale have been hurt, and Kutter Crawford may be the second best starter on the team. Yes, Brayan Bello is a revelation, but he is not an ace (yet), nor is he capable of carrying the rotation. The bullpen has been pretty good, but dreadful starting pitching will be the story of the '23 Red Sox. What the Twins Can Learn Prior to 2023, the Twins also employed the "washed veteran pitcher on a one-year deal" strategy on numerous occasions, much to the chagrin of myself and most of the fanbase. Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy, JA Happ, Homer Bailey, Rich Hill, Martin Perez, Lance Lynn, and Bartolo Colon did not give the Twins a whole lot besides elevated blood pressure and the uncontrollable urge to throw the remote through your living room window. Those guys would be fine if they were depth pieces (i.e. Dallas Keuchel in '23), but when you are counting on Chris Archer to fill the 3rd or 4th spot in the rotation, it takes the "low risk" out of the low risk/reward contract. The biggest takeaway from Chaim Bloom's failures has to be that you won't have good starting pitching if you don't go out and get it. He started with a rotation of five, with all five having a season where they finished at least a top-6 Cy Young voting to a rookie ace, three swingmen, and the corpse of James Paxton. He did not swing any big trades to bring any big-time starters in while letting go of Joel Payamps and Jeffrey Springs. While many of us lament the loss of Arraez, CES, Steer, Petty, Raley, Graterol, and two months of Nelson Cruz, having a rotation as good as the '23 Twins have had is not cheap and is very difficult to pull off for a small-mid market team. Another important reminder is that "selling" in a trade does not automatically make your team better down the line. I was shocked that so many fans wanted the team to sell at the deadline to recoup assets for a potential run in '25 and beyond. Getting rid of Mookie Betts, David Price, Andrew Benintendi, and others has done more harm than good regarding the Red Sox' playoff chances these past few years. The Tigers, Royals, and Pirates have been sellers for the better part of the last decade with terrible results. The Twins are not currently being helped by assets acquired in the Jose Berrios or Ryan Pressly trades, and this team would look a lot stronger with those guys on it. I am not arguing that it's never a good idea to trade for prospects, but selling when you don't have to does not always work. Final Thoughts Starting pitching really does make and break the success of your organization. We saw in '21 and '22 how over-reliance on guys finding a second wind leads to disaster, and we see in '23 how excellent pitching can make up for some offensive ineptitude. While one-year deals can patch holes on the hitting side (Solano, Renfroe, etc) and in the bullpen (Stewart, Jansen, etc), you have to be really lucky to get above-replacement play from starters who aren't good enough to sign multi-year deals. With the Twins potentially losing Maeda and Gray, as well as the uncertainty with Ober, the Twins front office would be wise to view Boston as a cautionary tale, lest Falvine end up like Chaim Bloom.

Looks like Myles Straw will not be winning a gold glove this year

Walks will haunt...

I am not convinced that Vazquez scores on that sac fly. Good move by Rocco

How many human teeth are in attendance? 150,000 maybe? I feel like half the people I have seen in Cleveland and Detroit have 75% of their smile missing.

Are we going to get a bunch of oldheads praising the pinch hitting decisions after Farmer's double? Oh wait. You guys only complain.

Swamp Donkey!

You could clearly see the ball bounce twice. That's obviously a homer. MLB umps are probably dumber than the average Yankee fan- which makes sense considering that replays are done in NY.

The team responded very well after the debacle on Wednesday. Good for the 'pen to go 9 up, 9 down. Good for the lineup to score runs in bunches. Good for Rocco to make a bunch of smart moves. Lots of good to go around tonight.

There is a new stat that I think is coming out soon called "Deserved Runs Created." It is supposed to take negative plays into account. Overall, I agree that there is not a difference between an 80mph flyout and a K. Most outs are as productive as Ks.

Based on what? On a per/PA basis, Jeffers brings more to the table than Arraez does. Obviously, Arraez's counting stats are going to be higher because he's had many more PAs, but can you point to something that shows that Arraez is more impactful than Jeffers on a per/PA basis? You can't just assert that Arraez is a godsend, and you will have nothing ever to do with any statistic that is not a counting stat because "fancy" stats all come from some mythical spreadsheet that I have never seen.

The bullpen usage made no sense to me. Funderburk and Jax both have reverse splits, yet both of them only faced batters of same handedness (until the Calhoun homer). Jax should have pitched to Kwan, which would have saved Thielbar. I really disliked the move to bring in Funderburk in that spot (Pagan clearly had his ish together), but Thielbar would have made sense had he been available. I know Calhoun has reverse splits, but Pagan is pretty bad against lefties.