Hawkeye Bean Counter

Mike I know he had bad luck before, but in the prior 3 years he had the lowest babip of any player. I didn't realize how bad his luck had been, but also how long it had lasted. Maybe he will go on a 3 year stretch of good luck 😉. We do have to acknowledge that he is likely getting some help from less shift. He will always be shifted but even 3 to 4 more singles raises the BA 10%. Kepler should be a .260/.330/.820 guy. His WAR the last 3 years is 2.1, 2.2, 2.9. He is also only had 1 year really below 2 (He was a 1 WAR, another year he did have 1.9 but not significant difference for this discussion). We like to downgrade players and look at their warts yet not really see how good they are. The war shows a player that is a 20 mil player consistently whether he is hitting or not. If he is hitting then he is an elite player. If he has 4 years of 2+ WAR I can guarantee he will be qualifying offer.

Tell me why the Twins would go hard after a player when they can get significant draft capital if they let him go? We signed our Ace in Pablo. We can fill in for a #2 with the trades as discussed here.

I still stand by a big trade likely involves 1 of Julien and Lee, I would trade Lee as you will likely get more value for him. I understand the defensive difference between the two players, I just think Julien can play respectable defense while having a better bat than Lee. Maybe I am wrong. This only happens if you are going after an elite pitcher with 2 or more years of control. I could also see Soto as a potential trade bait as well but beyond that, will just have to wait and see what they do. 1 of Polanco and Julien is likely traded. I really don't think Kepler gets traded this year. As to Vasquez, who knows. I think you just keep him as the backup and see if he bounces back. Catching is one of those positions where hitting seems to vary considerably. So we overpay a bit for a backup catcher, there is worse ways to spend that money and unless someone is going to give you close to the value of the contract I think you would have to eat too much salary to make the trade work or giving away a prospect as a sweetener.

Kepler hit at over a .290 clip for 3 straight months. Kepler has never done that before. That looks repeatable, and looks like more than just a small sample size. Yes maybe he would be able to string together 3 months again like that, but if strings together 5 months of .270 BA with a very respectable OPS that is definitely a 3 year 50+million contract. He is swinging much more frequently 50% of the time, and making contact earlier in counts on better quality pitches than trying to hit borderline strikes protecting the plate. Being aggressive at the plate can work and along with more confidence and less shift worked out well to end the season. Now maybe pitchers will begin to throw more junk early in counts against him. But if he lays off this you are getting into hitters counts and in even a better spot. Even with the more aggressive approach he wasn't striking out at a significantly higher rate. Just putting more balls in play with better contact, but not necessarily more power, the homer rate actually dipped a bit. He doubled his hits from the prior year to right field, 12 to 24. A mix of better contact and less shift. Kepler was well over a negative 1 war in the first 3 months. He pulled in well over a 4 WAR to end the season. You extrapolate that out and thats a hell of a player for a season. 8 WAR type player.

I believe on a 1 year deal he is worth closer to 23 to 25 million. A team is willing to go higher on a 1 year deal than a multi year deal. It is basically the strategy that Trevor Bauer took. It really comes down to what type of player is Kepler next year. If he just averages out last years statistics into this year he is well worth a qualifying offer. I personally think he figured something out so will likely be well worth the qualifying offer. If that is the case it will just come down to health.

I was thinking about this more lately. I could see Polanco being flipped, but if Kepler just performs the same as he did last year and averages his performance out (instead of poor spring hot late summer fall) he is easily a 3 to 4 year 20 million AAV player. That is another Qualifying offer pick. A team like the Yankees would not get that value if he were to leave they would need to resign, that also means they would have to give up a very good compensation to get him. We currently have an outfield that is currently not in a stable position. I think this team is big on accumulating as many "free assets" as they can, and the draft compensation from the qualifying picks will continue to be a big part of their strategy moving forward. Polanco right now unless he has a really strong year next year, just does not look like a player that would command a 50+ mill contract. Plus he is in the infield where we have a lot more depth.

Sounds like the cardinals may be putting on Steven Matz on the trade block as well.

Cardinals will likely be shipping off 1 to 2 outfielders if that is what you want to go after. Nothing exciting but its something that has been mentioned a bit.

More than $50 million so should be between the first and second round. Before competitive balance but not sure on the prospect promotion for Arizona and Baltimore getting the rookie of the years.

if he would have waited I think 4 and $100 would have been a possibility. The issue is I don't think he wants to pitch in the big markets after his New York experience.

I think the strategy is actual pretty decent. Will be a bit of a stop gap but still what they want to achieve. Gibson and Lynn are both pitchers that you can slot into your 4 and 5 spots. I think both Lynn and Gibson will perform slightly better than last year. Gibson getting out of the AL east and Lynn just had a rough year last year. Both are work horses and tend to avoid the IL. They are boring but excellent 4-5 options. They still need a #1 or #2 to pair with Gray but will likely go the trade market for that. They locked pitchers up before a frenzy as teams that lost out try to go to the 2nd and 3rd tier. The will have revamped their SP line up for not exorbitant dollars but reasonable. The issue is Lynn and Gibson are both 1 year stop gaps so will either give time for prospects to develop or be back in the FA market next year.

The expectations were for anywhere between 3 years 60 million and 3 years $72 million. To sign this early I would guess closer to that higher number. Cardinals were desperate for quality starting pitching.

The issue for an ace or a #2 for 1 year is the compensation. Most likely younger pitchers can be offered the QO and get draft compensation. In the Sonny Gray situation it worked out well because not only did you get great performance, but you can parlay that into another lottery ticket high school pitcher most likely similar to Petty. Then it is does Petty make it or the pick. However we have already accumulated nearly a 10 WAR from 2 years of Sonny. That is a huge amount to catch up on. Joe Ryan has given us 3.8 WAR in 2 1/2 seasons.

Or do the unthinkable and trade Correa. However I don't think thats likely especially with the no trade clause, just saying. I think his postseason did answer a lot of questions though and he had a healthy season which makes his contract seem pretty reasonable now.

If you want to look purely at age due to him losing his 2020 season to Covid, fine that is your prerogative. Juliens second year of playing he played primarily in AA no different than Lee. If you want to look at small sample size though Julien did much better than Lee's in AAA in a similar amount of at bats. All I am saying is Julien was very much underrated coming up through the system and I think Lee is slightly overrated, but that he is a very good looking prospect and has a very very high floor. Lee has performed well at every level and I expect him to do very well in AAA this year. He will be a very solid major leaguer. There is nothing wrong with that. Julien has had a higher OPS and OBP at every level, whether you want to scoff at it or qualify it that is fine. The only major differentiator is Lee plays a premium position at SS and will likely be a 3rd baseman. The issue is we have Lewis there right now.

Mike, Lee is a great prospect and we were lucky to get him. However I would say the exact same thing about Julien. Both have a high trade value in the calculator, but I think Juliens bat will be better than Lee. That isn't anything to sneeze at, and maybe Lee will be better. When you look at their stats though they have followed the exact same trajectory and at similar levels at a similar age and Julien did better at each level. What does that say, its that there is bias in the rankings. What I am looking at is we don't have enough positions for all our infielders unless 1 moves to 1st or DH. I would be fine with having another great contact hitter on the team. I also recognize that one of the 2 is a likely trade candidate.

Julien has outperformed Lee at every level. I think he is pretty locked in. Add in his improvement on defense, unless the Twins are blown away with a deal, you don't trade away a top 10-11 obp and top 25 OPS player unless getting ample return back. Unless you think he will regress but he has been incredibly consistent moving up the levels. As he gains more name recognition he may start getting a few more of those close calls as well.

This has been a potential ideal partner. I like Brooks Lee, and think he can be a good player and possibly a 1 to 2 time all star. However the likelihood of him being more than that are slim. If you can get a very strong pitcher while we still have immense depth in the infield you do it. You may need to send a little more with him. The question is, is that the player the Mariners want. I can't judge that. However the pool of teams willing to give up elite hitting prospects for pitching is likely pretty slim as well.

It doesn't even fit with the Twins MO. They are not looking for 1 year stop gaps, and trading away a very good prospect to get that stopgap. Alonso is a good power hitter, but not perfect, he is the type of player the Twins like, and maybe the Twins would do it to get a draft pick after a qualifying offer. In the grand scheme of things its just not likely. The Twins don't have a ton of cash to throw around and they still need at least 1 more starting pitcher. We have likely enough hitters in house, its still moving them around, and possibly finding 1 to 2 hitters that can fit in well. The primary focus this offseason should be on finding a #2 to pair with Pablo.

DJL, I agree. Someone is going to have to play a different position, whether 1st base or outfield, if you keep them all. Or you will have to trade 1 or keep Lee in the minors unless there is an injury. The only other options are to move Julien to DH or 1st even though he seems to be settling in quite nicely into second base.

This is where the rubber meets the road, for a Julien or a Lee they are going to have to give a better pitcher than Woo, Miller, or Hancock. Miller and Woo have similar comps to Julien or Lee but personally I think they will want a better pitcher than that level. My guess is they ultimately look for more of a reclamation project.

I fully agree with you. I think Lee is at peak value and is a viable trade chip. Unless the power ticks up significantly which it could he is a .360 OBP .830 ish OPS type player. That is an above average MLB player at a premium position as a SS or 3rd baseman. Jenkins has the potential to be elite. The ceiling is much much higher. The thing is, Winokur showed he may have a similar high ceiling. I am very curious to watch how Jenkins and Winokur perform this year and also watch the A and high A coaches have fun with their new pitchers from last years draft. Beyond that, Lee is a very high floor, with a lower ceiling which makes him a rather safe pick if another team has holes to fill. Will have to wait and see.

They don't have the bats to compete as constructed. They are the Miami Marlins of last year. They need playable bats now. https://www.fishstripes.com/2023/1/21/23565105/marlins-luis-arraez-baseball-trade-values The calculator isn't always right. That articles states the Marlins significantly overpaid for Arraez. However that was giving Salas 20 million worth of value. Salas has a 5.1 million value today after having 20 million last year for the simulator. Even still in the trade scenario it was 58 million vs 27. I think you have to assume once you get in the 25 to 30 million range or higher there may be a 15 to 20 million difference in calculation and some variations. Just like in the Arraez situation the Marlins really liked him. It would have to be a similar situation for something like this to occur as well. Yes you never know whether they would value someone like a Julien better or a Brooks Lee. In either case I believe there is 1 spot in the future and the other is a trade candidate unless you can move Julien to a different position or Lee or Lewis to the outfield.

Currently here is my gut feel on how things play out. I think salaries will end up in the 130 to 135 range. 1. There is already smoke on Kiermaier. I do think the Twins will take the chance on him. A 2 year 13-14 million contract seems reasonable. This will likely be our headline deal of the year and will fill in with couple other smaller contracts. 2. One of Polanco and/or Kepler will be traded in the offseason. Either to facility a another trade or give us a prospect or player in a position of need. Kepler has had interest from the Yankees and I could see that interest ramping up or other teams. Red Sox would be an option for Polanco. They could also be use in a trade for a starter which I discuss below. 3. We will trade for a starter. The question is how good of a starter. Will it be a #2 starter and cost significant prospects, which the Twins will have well replenished their prospects with the 2023 draft and draft capital in the 2024 draft - or will they go for a cheaper reclamation project. Personally I think they wade into the #2 #3 type of pitcher market. Milwaukee has already stated they are open for business as well as it appears Seattle is as well. Seattle has excess pitching and Seattle has lots of holes for hitting. Here is my trade proposal Logan Gilbert for Kepler and Lee Trade simulator Twins 73.9 Mariners 57 The trade seems slightly lopsided but honestly I think Gilberts value in the simulator is a tad high. I also think Rookies that are eligible for draft compensation if they are rookie of the year have increased value. The outfield then consists of Wallner, Kiermaier, (Buxton, Larnach, Martin) pick up bargain level fielder for additional depth.

Not a major surprise but he did turn down the offer. Most likely looking like the Twins will get a draft pick when he signs elsewhere.