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Hawkeye Bean Counter

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Everything posted by Hawkeye Bean Counter

  1. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The issue is we gave up on him, San Diego gave up on him, a team that could have really utilized him this year Kansas City gave up on him. He looked like AAAA prospect. To me some things are up for fair discussion. Questioning the trade for Mahle or a few other minor things. 2. This is still in the extremely small sample size. I hope something clicked for him, but we are still well within Akil Baddoo territory. I do think he has more talent than Baddo but I think its more likely his strikeouts begin to increase again and overall production will decrease. There is nothing wrong with be happy for his success.
  2. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The Connor Priellip news is even better than expected. First its just generalized soreness, secondly he is more advanced than they had expected at this point. Meaning he is progressing faster and/or possibly has a higher ceiling than they had anticipated. Looks good to me. I think we will see a lot more kid gloves from this organization dealing with injuries and rehabbing from them in the future.
  3. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    They have now done it twice, they did it with Jorge last year. Sometimes you can say it was just luck. They have now done this in back to back years. We are getting out of the territory of luck and going in to they are doing something systematically different that is helping these types of pitchers. Hard throwers with control issues.
  4. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I think it is very clear that Baltimore has some very good bullpen and pitcher coaches, along with analytics, that are harnessing elite pitchers with control issues. This is a trade that has worked out for the Twins, but I am becoming very impressed with what the Orioles are doing.
  5. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Over 1/2 of his hits are homeruns. What we are looking at is he becomes much more valuable if he can sprinkle in more singles and doubles with those home runs.
  6. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Gallo with another homer today. Even with being out for an extended period is now 10th in total home runs. He is currently 8th in OPS for players with over 20 plate appearances.
  7. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Its pretty clear at this point you are just trolling. Hits are hits, and yes if they are going to shift to right field to avoid hits, I am thrilled with all the cheap hits, including doubles he gets to left field, to offset the hits he is losing hitting into the shift. If he gets enough of them the shift will loosen up.
  8. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He just has to hit over .800 to be worth the $11 million. Now that he has gone nearly a month and has an 1120 OPS and a 208 OPS plus is pretty good. FYI Arreaz at his incredible start is only at a a 202 OPS+.
  9. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Which hitter on our roster has been more productive than Gallo in this early season so far? I think this answers your question. Now he could go on a hitless streak and prove your point.
  10. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Ummm . . . seems slightly backhanded there. I think a few people thought that he had a change to get to 1.000 OPS and if he did that he would be well worth the $11 million we are paying him. Yes he had had poor production the last 2 years so it was a bit of a gamble, but it is looking like he is performing pretty well here in the early going. We need a few more hits but overall a good OBP and good OPS.
  11. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I really want to watch Cossetti some more this spring. See if his bat continues to perform and potentially at higher levels. Right now he is leveling A ball pitchers so far. If he provides some promise we may not need to look at catcher as something we need to address in the 1st round. To me there are 2 elite bats and 2 elite pitchers. Can we get 1 of the 4.
  12. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He has hit .250 once in his lifetime, the thing is can the Twins get his batting average closer to .250 than .190? The higher it goes the more valuable he becomes. He has had an over .800 OPS 4 times. Last year the threshold for a top 30 hitter was right around .800 OPS. The goal is that Gallo would be higher than that.
  13. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    There is 2 things you aren't accounting for, 1 is a more compact swing, 2 is less shift. He should have an additional hit to his total as well for what was counted as an error in the Kansas City game. I don't anticipate to hit at this level. However, if he maintains a .250 batting average he will be a top 30 hitter in the MLB and that is valuable.
  14. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I disagree, they started having prospects and ammunition to do the deals they needed to get the type of pitchers we needed. We traded away our 1st round draft pick high school pitcher for Sonny Gray. That was over a year ago. That was 18 months ago. The got Ryan at the end of 2021. They got Maeda in 2020 Health wise the cumulative affect is starting to show up now, due to health and other reasons. It just feels like more has been done. No the difference is they have been gradually getting to this point, we had a health issue with Maeda. We have better catching now to help the pitchers. We also have a better bullpen and better starting pitching which help out each other. You can't rebuild a pitching staff overnight, and the Twins haven't even though it feels that way. As to the pipeline, we have a couple options at higher levels, and we have traded away 4 of the decent pipeline arms for help on the major league team. Even still to have the arms in the major leagues, Paddack available for future years, Varland, Winder, SWR, Balazovic and any other arm that might surprise us in the future. That is light years better than the past. I will stop here as we each have our own opinions.
  15. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Quite the change from you were done with this front office 😂 As stated then you have to take the emotion out of a singular signing, lack of signing ect. They have a template and follow it. They continue to gain value on the margins, and the decisions generally always seem to have a positive impact to the organization. The cumulative value is starting to show up. Now can the higher salary players continue to perform. We will see. Here is the thing, they keep taking big swings. The contracts they do are friendly to the team. They keep plugging away. We need to rebuild the minors again and this draft will help, but the front office has done a good job of having immediate success, using trades to continue to be competitive and continue to draft well to keep the pipeline fairly well stocked. We went from a weaker team with a stronger minor league last year, to the opposite this year. The entire organization is light years ahead where it was 5-6 years ago.
  16. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I think Lopez can be a closer, but I do think there is a learning curve. However I am completely fine where he is slotted now. I think the Twins wanted him to regain his confidence this spring, and he has done exactly that. Jorge has regained more of his control and whiff percentage, although 3 strikeout inning will sure help. We are definitely in the small sample size, but the performance is similar to 2022 beginning. Which tells me a couple things, the first is, his performance last year wasn't a fluke. 2. Is that he likely wore down as the year went on last year which caused possibly a lower arm slot with less movement as the year went on. I think the Twins and Jorge will be cognizant of the arm level and will continue to work on that. I also think Jorge will be better prepared to handle a full seasons worth of work.
  17. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    If Dollander is available at #5, effectively #4 if we want to out pay the rangers, I think the Twins take it and run. We are also only 150k below the Tigers and only 150k above Seattle who has the 6th, 29th, 30th pick. I think Dollander will regain a little of the feel as the season goes on. You don't find many pitchers that can pump up to 99, and has 3 other mlb pitches. Yes he may need a little coaching, but other than Skenes those both look like strong building blocks to any rotation.
  18. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    This was the one trade that I felt was an overpay but it happens. As to this trade it really comes down to Steer vs Miranda. I think they will provide fairly equal value, but either one of the 2 players was going to be our long term 3rd baseman, and both may ultimately get bumped by Lee. CES is purely a big bat with some injury history. Most likely a DH bat but again not a whole lot of spots for him. I feel this is good for the Twins if they can extend Mahle, and of the pitchers I think he is the one most likely. If not we will get a draft pick, or comp pick. I think we lose this trade unless an extension occurs. However, its similar to how we got Joe Ryan. The issue was Mahle was never going to be that final piece.
  19. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    If Larnach becomes a healthy solid player. That leaves us down to Kiriloff, who with Gallo currently playing the way he is, we look protected at 1st. Then the last question mark comes down to Polanco at second. Can Polanco get healthy and stay healthy. If not you have Julien waiting in the wings who could be our lead off hitter of the future.
  20. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Wow just looked at Langfords stats . . . wow 1.488 OPS. Gonzalez is 1.055. Looking like we will get a really good player at #5. Will come down to do teams want bats or pitchers.
  21. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    What makes the draft crazy is when a team wants to save money for later in the draft and pick a lower prospect to save a couple million. I don't see that happening in top 4 picks but it could. Dollander, Skenes, and Crews definitely seem like the top 3 right now. If anyone of those 3 drops you take them.
  22. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Likely picked Dollander Crews Pool of possibly available - Langford, Skenes Waldrep, Clark Gonzalez Next Tier and wildcards - Bradfield, Lowder, Mitchell Its too hard to follow, but right now these are the players I am focusing on. Langford Gonzalez are you college batters Clark has the potential to be elite. We will have a very good pitching prospect available at our pick most likely. Waiting to see injuries and performance. Bradfield has elite speed, depending how this season goes with stealing could prop him up a bit. Lowder has the stuff. Mitchell would be the best Catcher available.
  23. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    This is a year for Martin to prove his skills. To me he is a .280 to .300 hitter and a .400 OBP player if he can continue to progress and make it to the big leagues. Personally I think of last year as a 1 off year for him. I think he needs good health and confidence, and I think he finally started gaining that confidence towards the end of last year and it rolled into fall ball. With his speed I think he will be a good asset in the outfield. I don't think his defense will make it at SS, possibly 2nd, but might as well use the wheels in the OF.
  24. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Boy it appears time plays tricks on us a bit. When we started the offseason it was clear the team was trying to manage the roster with a lot of potential possibilities that they thought the offseason would go. I think they thought they had a shot at resigning Correa but they weren't sure. They wanted Miranda preferably at 3rd and still do. So in a very short order we traded Urshela and then got Farmer for essentially the same price we got Urshela for. Yes Urshela is better than farmer but it made sense at the time. Ultimately we are talking about 9-10 million dollars for Urshela. We then used 11 million on Gallo. The real question is between those 2 who has a better year, my bet would be on Urshela but I could see Gallo winning that. We have some flexibility with this roster, and overall I don't think losing 1 year of Urshela is really that big of a deal. Zips is expecting .280 average .340 OBP and 15 home runs for Urshella. They expect Gallo to have .195 BA .330 OBP and 25 home runs. effectively slightly more upside with Gallo just on expected stats. Eh, we won't know until we play out the season but the offseason went over about as well as anyone could have expected, and if the biggest thing we can complain about is we would have been better off with Urshela than someone like Gallo . . . well lets just say we must not have too much to complain about.
  25. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He had like 48 innings of elite production now almost 3 years ago. Now he purposefully did not pitch last year, to hurt his draft stock (it may have done so anyway). Even with the workout, his 3 major pitches are still there. The control was a tad off last June but still rusty. I fully expect him to be very strong at A and A+ ball this year. I have no doubt he will be the ace on each team. His talent is that good.
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