Hawkeye Bean Counter

Paddack and Stewart. I think you can work Paddack in for a couple more weeks. His stuff actually looks pretty decent this early into it. Stewart, Paddack, and Maeda added to the Pen makes the depth of the bullpen much better. In terms of leverage Duran, Thielbar, Jax, Stewart, Varland, Pagan, Maeda, Winder, Paddack, Floro. Winder Paddack and Varland can give you multiple innings and help in extended inning situation. If they can't figure out Floro replace with someone else.

I gave you your 77-78 . . . so whats your stance now, I still haven't seen anything you want to support,

https://www.justbaseball.com/betting/2023-mlb-win-total-projections-early-over-under-picks/ 77.5

https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/minnesota-twins-preview-odds-win-total-predictions-bm15/#:~:text=The Twins' win total for the 2023 season is 82.5. How much more do you need Woof

I told you it was midseason . . . what are you doing? What about the betting odds, how do you get around that?

so you think Twins were expected to beat both Cleveland and White Sox, because I damn well know that was the projections by the media or others. So what hole am i digging?

Woof, the info is out there https://franchisesports.co.uk/preseason-world-series-odds-2023/ We were a longer shot on betting odds than both Cleveland and White Sox. Not by a huge amount, but its there. Show some countering data if you disagree.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-mlb-predictions/ mid season 83 wins

They didn't but based on their responses and also what they were saying before the season they most certainly had us below .500. Yes I am giving what support I can find, but a little harder now. Even still where is that much different than my claim of 82? Didn't I provide you with enough evidence . . . sheesh high hurdle to climb.

My stance was also to show the absurdity of the over reaction at trade deadline. There were several saying they were done with this org and we were not going anywhere while also not realizing the cost of trying to make a move and what the expected value of that trade is. The bullpen will be quite a bit different than it is today, and I can guarantee Headrick won't be on it and wouldn't be surprised if Floro isn't either. I also think the Twins are playing a longer game, and neither this year or last year, did we have a good enough roster to spend the extra money (that they likely didn't have) on another reliever. Gallo withstanding. Yes I have broad shoulders and willing to take some constructive criticisms. Within 2 weeks the bullpen will not be considered shallow, maybe weak on the top end. Varland 2.1 innings of relief yesterday against Tampa, Duran, Thielbar, Jax and possibly Funderburk is an ok to above average bullpen.

ESPN had us as a below .500 club firing Rocco missing playoffs and levine and falvine on chopping block https://puckettspond.com/posts/minnesota-twins-season-prediction-espn-playoffs Bleacher report 83 https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10079068-reevaluating-all-30-mlb-teams-based-on-2023-preseason-projections Twinsdaily - 87

Doc, I can agree I would have liked to seen any small move at the beginning of the season or after. When we signed Gallo though there really wasn't a whole lot left if my memory serves. I think the board was looking at 1 possible decent option. I think the twins should have kept Coloumbe. And they could have picked up 1 other reliever. However most likely we wouldn't have called up Brock Stewart or Funderburk. If I have a concern with the organizations philosophy is they are very reluctant to give minor league relievers a shot in the big leagues it seems. I am not sure of that reasoning. I think a Funderburk and a Stewart, will give you about what a Coloumbe and another solid reliever would give you. I just think any of these moves are window dressing and don't significantly create the Twins into a contender. However, its a team that we have been able to cheer, bemoan, and gripe about all season long 😉, so in ownerships eyes, the front office did their job for this year.

What chips, who are your trading and why and who are you getting and what needle are you moving? Are you making any significant changes in the potential of the team winning a WS, the answer is no. So the question is why spend any chips?Now I do think they engaged and I think the prices were too high or the players taken off the market. As to the front office, I think they want to put a solid team out there every year and give themselves a shot. I think they have a much longer horizon than just this year on competitiveness. The other thing is last year we moved more chips in because we had more players at risk for the rule 5 draft. This year I don't see a massive crunch.

The average consensus of non Twins fans was this was a team that would finish 3rd in its division. The average consensus was 78-82. The average Twinsdaily projection was mid eighties. Kirby - the twins are only +4 within the division. So maybe they would be knocked down 1-2 to more wins if in another division. As of now they make the playoffs because they are in the Central. However it would not surprise me if they go on a bit of a run here. Your mid tier RP and RH bat would make a 1-2 at most 4 game difference. This teams is still not on par with a Braves, Texas, or Baltimore lineup. Now that doesn't mean they can't catch lightning in a bottle but the moves you are talking about are just window dressing. They do those moves, you lose this shiny object to be upset about but most likely you will find something else. In order to be on the level of a Baltimore Texas Atlanta you would have had to put a significant amount of chips in. So effectively you are happy with the team (maybe 1-2 games difference) with your suggestions, or you still think we are not a WS contender. Now just being in the playoffs gives you a chip and a chair, but I do think the Twins have enough pieces to create some magic this year. its not something I am counting on, but something I could see occurring.

I can't argue swapping a Gallo contract for a reliever, it would have been a better roster construction. At the same point the org was maxed out on salary after the Correa signing so I can understand not signing a reliever especially after signing Gallo. They still have a budget to follow from management whether we agree with it or not. Lets be clear though this team has outperformed all expectations to start the season. Anyone thinking this was the year to put all their chips in . . . well I guess that would be the true idiocy. I think the org when they feel they have a good shot will put their chips in, we just hope that it hits.

1 wouldn't have made a difference. I said in order to remake the bullpen into a strength of reliable relievers, it would have been costly. A single reliever would not have moved the needle and actually supports the Twins strategy of standing pat. None of the relievers you named look like a pitcher that could carry a team in the playoffs. Right now we have 1 in Duran, if we can avoid the soft contact hits and walks - he is affectively unbeatable. I don't have to admit to anything 😄. My stance was this was a good enough strategy to get to the playoffs and give you a chip and chair situation and allow the team to catch lightning in a bottle. Now if we tank the remainder of the season yes I will own up. That would be an epic collapse at this point. For me the long term prognosis of the Twins is more interesting than this team which is why i think trading prospects for a semi flawed team this year or last year were ill advised. I think we have a pretty big window opening here in the next year or two where the Twins could be a top tier organization. This would be elevated if Correa can regain his prior form. However with Lee, Lewis, Martin, Jenkins, and Julien you have the potential of a very strong core of batters with some contact and power. There are enough other depth batters in the organization to fill in with upside in Kiriloff, Wallner and Larnach and Miranda let alone all the over performers in AA and AAA. We also look like we will get an additional draft pick from Sonny Gray as well, making that trade very favorable for the Twins. Now we just need to continue to add to the pitching side, and I hope sooner or later they address the bullpen in the offseason.

The relievers have had varying levels of success. I am ok with not giving up prospects in AAA, AA or even a lower level player. What reliever would have made a drastic change in the W/L of this team? There isn't 1 and even if you did change out 1 reliever we are only affecting 2-3 losses to wins. Those won't result in any change in getting to the playoffs and may or may not affect success in the playoffs. FYI Stewart has been pitching going to rehab assignment shortly. I am not saying this is a perfect strategy. However for the costs associated with trades, the standing pat strategy and trying to put some pitchers in relievers roles does appear to be getting better talent. Pagan has actually done very well, however if he can't pitch strikes he becomes ineffective very quick. You can disagree, But in order to have a good bullpen we are talking about sending out 8-10 prospects to achieve a good to elite bullpen with proven bullpen arms. No offense, I consider that idiocy. No one would suggest building a bullpen of the names you suggested above at the trade deadline with many of those pitchers in the mid 4 ERA before the deadline. As to many of your relievers their stats were not great before the trades. We can all look at things after the fact and say hey that trade was a good one - while we just as easily could have had a Lopez situation from last year.

I am more optimistic about the long term projections of the organization. I am stating they have a 4-5% chance of doing some damage in the Playoffs. That isn't exactly going out on a limb 😁.

1. Not at all, the hyperbole was that the Twins would not make the post season due to the poor management. My stance was this was actually a fairly strong constructed teams that needed the bats to improve. 2. I said balanced team not pitching staff. The bats are beginning to drastically improve. 3. Bullpens are important and here is the potential Bullpen we will bring into the playoffs. Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Funderburk, Stewart, Varland, Pagan, and 2 of Maeda, Paddack, Alcala and Winder and Keuchel. That is a deep bullpen, and some talented arms. My concern is some of those pitchers may not be well tested going into the first series. The theory is we just have a crap bullpen. The reality is we have some injuries to the bullpen, we have not focused on the bullpen and the front office's plan is to supplement the bullpen with starter arms. I am not sure it will work or not but can acknowledge that it is a decent plan and could work.

I can fully agree with this, we just don't know what that low bar would cost and if any of those low bar options were available.

This thread was meant to show a couple things. #1 the massive overaction of adding a singular player or two at a trade deadline is not going to drastically move the needle and could decrease it. FYI I am fairly certain Floro has been one of our worst bullpen arms at a 6.5 ERA. It is also to show this front office is doing a pretty decent job at consistently trying to put a good product on the field for us. No the bullpen will not be perfect, but the bullpen we will put out in the postseason will have a good collection of arms. Those thread had massive hyperbole. What has occurred is the minors continue to get stronger with some high level prospects progressing very well and the big league team, at least holding serve and is going to give us a shot in the postseason. Lastly, I love the Lopez trade and extension. Overall that may end up being the best move this front office has made other than trading for Ryan.

In fairness you haven't been a believer of this front office for a while. The issue is what would have the cost been. Standing pat is going to achieve a couple things : 1. Get to the post season - check 2. Have a fairly balanced team - check 3. You have the pitching horses to give you a chance - check As to the relievers - yes give me Varland, Jax, Duran, Funderburk and Thielbar. Throw in Pagan and then 1,2 or 3 of the other options if they look like could help out of Paddack, Maeda, Alcala, Stewart. That becomes a very deep and solid bullpen very quick. They had a rough stretch for a while, but they are beginning to tighten it back up since Funderburk and Varland came up. I am fine with getting rid of Floro, I don't see much there.

I posted the following in the standing pat thread. The majority of what I stated was spot on. The 2 biggest things I mentioned in this post and another is that the Pablo Lopez trade will look better and better over time. That we effectively got a low #1 starter for Arraez and was able to extend him and a reasonable salary was an excellent deal. The other is the 2023 draft appeared to be a grand slam and would drastically boost the minors. As the the big league team, the bats are starting to wake up. It is being led by Polanco and Lewis as right handed bats and the left side continues to be solid. The relief corps looks like they will be getting some potential depth option as well including Varland who was already called up. Overall this will be the most talented team we have going into the playoffs since the early to mid 2000 teams. Strong pitching, Good closer, creating a talented bullpen and starting to get a pretty good batting lineup. Yes we could have found a better bat than Luplow or another reliever. However the internal moves are as good or better and are not costing anything. I would say as of now are chances are in the 4-5% range to either get to the WS and or win the WS. Honestly I think thats pretty good. Right now I think Houston has the best shot in the AL and I am starting to think we may be close to the #2 to #3 option. The Orioles have a young team with an injury to closer and poor starting pitching staff. Tampa has had injuries and removal of their best player. Really the AL is wide open. I honestly think the bullpen will be pretty strong the remainder of the year. Thielbar, Jax and Duran can do the majority of the workload, Pagan and Floro can do your medium to low leverage. Add in I do think we will be adding Keuchel. Whether Keuchel is a bullpen arm, gives days rest off for starting pitchers or allows Maeda to come to the pen, it adds another arm to the pitching staff. Some stated we should have traded Maeda and or Gray, and I even brought this up as well. However with the possibility on both (much higher on Gray) the Twins can offer qualifying offers that get a 1st or 2nd round draft pick back if they reject the offer. I think both will sign elsewhere and we will get a end of 1st for Sonny and a 2nd round draft pick for Maeda. You have to consider that value vs anything you would have received plus knowing they can be major cogs to a potential run. The theme on this board is this is a flawed team. I disagree, I think this is the best constructed overall team in over a decade that is a tad light on right handed batting but not bad. If Polanco, Correa, and Buxton turn it on, that fixes a lot of our right handed woes. We just need the bats to wake up. Correa has slowly been improving and Buxton looks like may be turning a corner. I think as a team and the bats specifically we have significantly underperformed so far this season but we have the bats to compete. This is by far the strongest starting pitching staff we have had, and with Jax and Duran (even going through a bit of yips) you still have a strong end of the bullpen. That is a team if it comes together can win the WS but we do need the bats to improve. This is something I have also said for a while but I will continue to say. The Pablo Lopez for Arraez deal is going to be very good for the Twins. I suspect by the end of the year on a WAR basis Lopez will be within 1 point for this year. Also add in the fact with the extension which it didn't sound like Arraez wanted to do you now get 2 extra years of Lopez because he was willing to sign a team friendly extension. Losing Arraez hurts, but for the Twins not irreplaceable, in actuality Julien is a very similar type of player (gets there with more walks than hits) but more power. Infield bats we have a plethora of and we can continue to fill in any holes that pop up on the infield from internal candidates for the foreseeable future. I am fine with standing pat, would have been fine if we added a bullpen arm at the deadline or even had traded a starting pitcher and flipped some prospects for a bat, however, this is still a team that has a chance. How high, maybe 2-4%, but it is a chance that things can click. Ultimately you need the starting pitching and this is the first year we can all say we have enough quality starting pitching going into any playoff series.

1 year of Alonso will not take a huge prospect load. He is a first baseman with 1 year left. Depending on front offices opinion of Raya or SWR, if it could net us an additional 1st round pick I would definitely consider it. I am fine with the Twins taking multiple shots at the end of the first rounds on elite pitchers and then build depth in the mid rounds.

And he made more than the extension offers 150 million even with all the drama and reduced salary in the 3 separate contract negotiations.