Hawkeye Bean Counter
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Everything posted by Hawkeye Bean Counter
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There was I just never saw it.
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I have always been one that enjoyed the drafts. Would watch during work. Even with the third pick I didn’t have near the optimism I usually do. I truly think Lackey will be a great player for the Twins yet there isn’t that banner saying wow this is great. I can see some decent players the rest of the draft and honestly I think I like Tinney more than most here. Beyond that you have your arms and 1 prep arm per usual. There wasn’t the talent at 43 of a Quick so the Tinney pick makes more sense. We grabbed pitchers the rest of the way. Renfrow seems like a starter kit for a good starting pitcher just needs some refinement. Waschman is your prep arm, and the other arm I’m intrigued by is Burns- effectively a 100 mph wild thing. Beyond that it seemed like a lot of players with 1 elite pitch. I can be optimistic and think we will find some good players but overall I’m extremely meh and have no idea why. Whether it’s the new format, less promotion of the draft or less enthusiasm of others on the board. I’m sure I’ll track the players just like I always do was just curious if others felt the same way.
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They stated Tinney was at the top of their board, maybe they got a discount, but I’m not expecting it. I think they saved some money on day 2.
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Wow I guess Marek Houston , Culpepper and Jenkins are chopped liver. I really think you may need to take a day away from the boards. Personally I could see the Tinney pick turning out as good as the Jeffers pick. In either case it’s good insurance in hopes of finding an elite catcher. If that’s what we do this draft a long with finding an arm or two it will be a successful draft.
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Twins Claim RHP Jack Anderson from Red Sox
Hawkeye Bean Counter replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
The bullpen has almost completely turned over. Gomez is a true find. Beyond that they just keep rotating in relievers. Banda had started to settle in before his injury. Sands is still injured. Andrew Morris seems to have made a spot for himself. We really need to find 2-3 solid relievers through waivers or trades to have an effective bullpen for the playoffs. I feel like we are a starter short and currently don’t quite have the lineup to make a run but the team seems to be gelling which it struggled to do last year. -
Anyone can know what needs to be taught, the issue is can the player understand it, put in the effort to get better and then translate it into performance. Both Lackey and Tinney have been labeled as having incredibly work ethics and drive. I even like the catcher they got late in the draft. Now we were discussing what changes would happen in the draft without Falvey and the Twins took a lot more hitters 10-20 rounds. It had always been stated you have a better chance with pitchers later in the draft. The other was a focus on catching prospects a position we had largely punted with high picks other than Jeffers and Diaw.
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Has there been a review on the fifth round pick?
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I think he was saying the first time they have pick catcher in their first two rounds. In either case they stuck to the board and picked Tinney in the second rather than pick another position. The Twins have picked multiple catchers usually deeper in the drafts.
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Thomas Burns- can regularly top 100 mph with great ride. However questionable command and doesn’t really have a secondary pitch yet. Purely a reliever at this point.
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Some interesting pitchers taken so far. Similar approach to last year where we seem to be loading on pitching prospects.
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Twins Claim RHP Jack Anderson from Red Sox
Hawkeye Bean Counter replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Let’s be clear the Twins are just trying to find relievers they can tweak a bit and give opportunity to see if can be a decent reliever. Gomez was an absolute find and appears to have long term potential. Who knows on this reliever and Coloumbe seems to be a guaranteed pickup in my opinion. Solidify the bullpen some more before the trade deadline and then see what’s available. -
To be fair the quote was he could go to college for 3 years and come out a 1st round prospect. He could also be mediocre and be a mid to late round draft pick. I am sure they have price range agreed to prior to picking him. many of these picks are going to flame out. It takes some luck but I like the profiles of both catchers. Both players that continue to improve. They had excellent stats in the best pitching conference - if the Twins think they can improve their defense with their track record we have to give them the benefit of the doubt. The pitchers is a crap shoot.
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I am amazed by the disdain for Tinney by most here. Most think he has no chance to stick behind the plate. His arm is elite, his blocking is solid and his framing which isn’t as necessary moving up is improving. My guess is they scouted him a lot this year and he was a backup option if one of the shortstops fell to us. With the way the board fell in the second round they still liked his potential. He improved his defensive metrics and the Twins are an organization that has been able to improve defensive metrics. Jeffers was viewed as a big catcher with defensive concerns. The other question in Tinney is the swing and miss. However he greatly improved as the season went on. So he is teachable and can translate it to the hitters box. Yes there will need to be some continued refinement. He struggled a little bit his first month but had elite numbers in the SEC and improved them in the NCAA tournament.
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This was my thought on a car ride home. I would not be surprised to see Tait flipped at the deadline and potentially for a reliever with multiple years of control. Who knows though. It’s a similar profile though and we can flip the more risky Tait for an asset now and still have immense catching depth in the minors. Many really wanted Ike Irish last year in the first round last year and other than Irish having better wood bat league stats, they seem extremely similar. The Twins have a pretty good system in place to improve defensive metrics, so I think there is a high probability he sticks behind the plate.
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LOL, for the last 5 years there have been complaints of the Twins not picking a catcher and the lack of organizational depth. This year they pick 2. Obviously Lackey fell to us. In the second round we obviously saw value- he seems like a solid pick. Needs work on defense what he improved this year and some improvement on hit tool- but honestly his college numbers have been good.
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Taj Bradley is much more valuable and a better trade than the transaction with Clemens.
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Well that’s a sample size of five. LOL I am sure this is a major confidence boost for him though. Great job Roden.
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Well Rozek was out so he was just filling in. He has a 1.5 whip in AA. We have slim pickings for the bullpen in both AAA and the MLB level, so if he is going to be a post all star Twins bullpen piece it appears it would be out of necessity and not because he is a true shutdown reliever right now.
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He was a post TJ pick in 2023, and had struggled some in his 2023 year prior to the draft. He was topping out at around 92 that year. So obviously this is a pick that is working out, but this comes with the caveat that he is being pushed aggressively as much out of necessity as it is that the coaches see something special about him. I honestly think its a bit of both.
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You realize the only way this works is that is exactly what happens most likely. Unless the Rays go clear off the reservation and go way unde slot at pick 2. As an accountant the math just doesn't work. So all 3 prospects are valued at lets say 40 million dollars currently. Flora will be $20 million and they will trend down after that. The savings will not give you the value that you could get by trading the player in the offseason.
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You are trying to bully a team into not taking a player. The Twins don't really tend to play that game. They will pick the player they think are the best and pay slot money. Nothing the Giants can do about it. But if you are trying to get a player at 3 to take below market value you could have a player unwilling to play ball and say they won't sign below XYZ. This scenario is the entire reason the Twins tanked last year. Increase your odds to get a high pick. Yes you dropped one slot from who was eligible for a lotter pick - but ultimately 1 pick higher than where the Twins ended in the standings (4th). You are going to end up with an elite prospect. The value of that #3 pick over the value of the #4 pick is evident by everything Posey is trying to do.
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I don't see any of these players willing to take a discount. Add in that you have the Giants who are actively stating they will overpay to try to get Chowolsky, Emerson or Lackey to fall to 4. They traded a Bailey to the Gaurdians to get the #29 pick and increase their bonus pool.
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Just to show how tightly grouped the top 3 picks are, if they were to be included in the top 100 list - 1 evaluator would put Cholowsky at 19, Emerson at 24, Lackey at 25. Flora would then be 49 and Booth is outside the top 100 at 110. Salas is rated currently as a top 20 prospect and has a current value of around 40 on the trade calculators (highly subjective). You are getting an elite talented prospect - Chowolsky and Lackey are extremely polished with extremely high floors. Emerson is the best high school prospect since Bobby Witt Jr.
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If Houston starts punishing AA pitching - a pick most were extremely meh about becomes potentially extremely valuable. His speed and power is much better than anticipated. He is sitting at 32 steals on the season and is a perfect 8 for 8 in 12 games for Wichita. Now its 1 game and he had struggle a bit prior to that game - but great game Marek. Amick did go 4-5 last night. He needs a few more of those as well. He is really leaned back into his power roots this year, rather than the contact approach he seemed to utilize last year.
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My personal opinion is they take the safe pick at 3, the best player left of the 3 then we may see some tweaks. Now this could get tested though which I will discuss. We have seen tweaks throughout the years, more power less hit tool early on. Originally primarily only taking college pitchers then around 2021 they really leaned into taking 1-2 HS pitchers each year. The biggest thing is the Twins have generally punted C for the last 10 years. Now they took Jeffers with a 2nd round pick (which was considered a major reach at the time) and Khadim Diaw in the 3rd. Otherwise several in the 8-10 round range or late in the draft. I remember last year thinking Ike Irish being available would be an extremely smart pick in the 1st and they took Houston. Sitting here today I think Houston is the better player of the 2. Irish still has questions regarding his defense and Houston's power and speed is better than anticipated and the defense is already MLB level. The hit tool was expected to be pretty good, it was just whether he could do enough damage. So if Lackey is there at 3 do they take him? This will be the test. My personal opinion is yes. Lackey had better offensive numbers than Irish and plays elite defense. Add in the Twins have had evaluators at every single one of Lackey's games. Otherwise I expect small tweaks that effectively follow the same gameplan they have been using.
