Hawkeye Bean Counter

Wow, I did not see that coming.

I actually expect we will get a pretty solid pitcher. He is more working of the rust. He is also a very similar pitcher to Bradley. Multiple 0 or 1 run outings followed by 6 or 7 runs. Its been the blowouts and home runs that have hurt him. We were able to help Bradley with pitch sequences and improving his stuff. Honestly I think Ober is about finished and Kremer will solidly slot in as a #3, #4 pitcher that will keep you in most games with the occasional blow out.

If we are going for it, if we are adding a bat its got to be from the farm system. Culpepper, Jenkins and Mendez would all be nice additions.

I do think they reset the franchise, but they really could have finished it. Granted, they can still get value from Jeffers even if they don't trade him with the QO. The Twins will likely end up with 3 first round draft picks unless draft compensation changes for small market teams with the new bargaining agreement which it could. He can make some big swings at pitching or hitting at the end of the 1st round. Add in it appears we have hit on Marek Houston. If Vahn Lackey is the real deal, Marek Houston, Jenkins, Culpepper, Lackey, Mendez at 1st (I have loved him since the last deadline). You only need to hit on 1-2 more outfielders. Pitching is the question. Can we find enough high impact arms. I think they will. Bradley so far looks like the real deal. I wish they would have done 1 more tank year though of selling Jeffers and Ryan but its ok. Buxton will be here long term and he will be fine as a 7-9 hitter. Here is where it gets interesting. The 2022 draft the Twins pretty well nailed. Other than not getting a high ceiling on Lee which was expected they nailed that draft. The 2026 draft we haven't seen the arms, and we have only seen a few games at A ball, but the 6 hitters look legit. You have Lackey who already is showing he is pretty polished, Tinney has immense power with the hardest hit in the Twins org this year and the hardest hit in Fort Myers in 11 years, some strike out concerns but controls the at bat well and I think we will get some positive developments on his defense. Then Teel, Turner, Lane and Schlovin all look solid. Its a small sample size, but if 3 of the 4 can become legit prospects along with Tinney and Lackey this could be a home run of a draft and we haven't even seen the pitching which I am pretty optimistic about. The younger pitchers are also starting to flash in the system a little pit. Dasan Hill just had his best outing. Matt Barr struggled a little bit adjusting but was throwing 96 mph and had much better control in his first start in A ball. Reitz is settling in as well. Quick has been solidly above average already up to AA. We need a healthy Soto and Ellwanger. We have the arms and body types to do well. Add in the 2026 group of arms who we have some more high octane arms and we may have rebuilt the farm system in 1 year.

Bats are much more scarce this year which is increasing the value. Pitching is actually going more cheaply. With the Rangers going into sellers mode, and the Mariners no longer dangling Arozarena, this would be the right time to potentially strike on a Jeffers or Larnach deal. 1 or the other in my opinion, not both. The deal for Arraez was effectively full price.

I will say this, I have really been warming up to the Kremer trade. He was a really solid pitcher for the last 2-3 years. If you can get 40 starts of 2 WAR pitching you take that and run and there is a decent possibility that occurs. I also think its a high possibility we sold high on Reyes as well. .950 OPS in the international leagues is nice, but transitioning to A ball is a big adjustment.

I think its actual a decent possibility. Larnach has done just as well since the trade debacle news so I think he would be fine moving forward. My entire premise has been the Twins were unwilling to bring up Jenkins and Culpepper. Zoll stated they were willing to bring up rookies and implied they would bring up Jenkins.

Here is my dream scenario. Trade Jeffers to Yankees for Warren. Get a low level prospect for Bell. Put Larnach as the DH. Bring up Jenkins if legit going for playoff spot as well as Culpepper and then get 1 more high level bullpen arm. Forget about Call from the Dodgers. You can likely get him on waivers or a cash deal. Your pitching has improved, your offense should be as good or better and you haven't spent much prospect capital.

It appears Adley to the Red Sox is all but done. Just going through the medicals. Could put more pressure on the Yankees to see if they can pry Jeffers from the Twins. Would the Twins be willing to swap for Warren?

They will get a deal or 2 done. The question is what it is.

A solid arm can have an amplified affect, especially when taking some stress off the other few decent arms. So the WAR can come throughout the bullpen. Add in some additional games from the bats, where maybe they have more optimism because they are still in the game. It comes more from just the 1 player.

The initial leak seems to have come from Astros side. However on the Twins who confirmed a trade got cancelled late (Dan Hayes is going over it on a current podcast), Shelton came out yesterday and said the front office personnel should keep quiet. That's a pretty strong statement from one of the top 3 faces of management of the Twins.

Whoever did that likely got a tongue lashing.

I do think the front office will be extremely tight lipped after the fiasco with Houston was leaked.

I will say I keep hitting refresh here and on the mlbtraderumors site. As to the Twins, I just don't want them to do something stupid. I am honestly thinking we should keep Larnach for next year and would be fine with trading Jeffers now if its a great deal or keep him and give a QO. With as busy as we were early and with the failed trade to Houston I expected something else to drop, but looks like we will be waiting until the last hour or two to see if they do anything.

Larnach with another year of control, I would be hesitant on considering selling him. He really seems to have found a groove and would slot in very well as our DH next year.

I am just surprised how well they have done after having a bit of a break and transitioning to wood bats. In either case you can judge 115 mph and the hardest hit ball in Fort Myers in 11 years. That is something no other Twins player in the system has done this year. Even in a small sample, this is the type of player Tinney has been, High walks, high SO's with plenty of power. The other thing is in my observations Tinney isn't as bulky as a I thought he would be for 230-240 lbs. He looks plenty athletic and actually already an MLB build for catcher.

I think they have performed well, and maybe even better than we should expect their long term performance will be. We definitely need a couple more, but it is a very good start.

I think you could get Bader for cheap next year 😉. Question is what condition is the foot after getting run over by the fire truck.

I know its early but with his defense, I think I would have him rated higher than Culpepper.

Hasn't played in a bit and transitioning to the wood bat. In his 4th game he looked pretty comfortable. He has gotten just as many walks as strikeouts.

Keaschall I feel comfortable with the bat, but he needs more work on the defensive side. I think he is fine wherever he finds a home. Lee will likely slot as a utility player similar to Clemens. The issue is we have 3 more years of control on Clemens. 1 of those 2 could get traded at some point. Lewis - If you would tell me that he will continue to hit opposite field on outside pitches I think he can be a 2 WAR player. If not because of the steady diet of outside pitches he will continue to struggle because of his pull happy swing. He has to adapt until they start coming inside again.

This has been the rumor mill for a while. This is a really low floor move.

Jeffers is tough for me. You can get a qualifying pick or you can get a top 100 prospect. Lets be real this team isn't going anywhere. They might slip into the playoffs and thats it and I would put that at less than 15%. Their bullpen has overperformed in July, the bats are slowing down, and the starting pitching is getting wore out. We have catching depth. I would be fine with selling Jeffers and then buying a few more pieces.

Arraez was traded to Philly for Marquez - who will likely be in the top 100 by the end of the year. He has dominated A and high A as a 20 year old. This is why I think we should trade Jeffers. Jeffers has more value than Arraez, and can guarantee a top 100 player or help for the team rather an end of the 1st draft pick which is a 50/50 proposition.