Peter Labuza

Imagine sitting down on April 6th for the first Twins game of the 2023 season. It’s still a bit cold for baseball, but the warmth of seeing the team again soothes the cold plastic of the seats. The Astros are in town—not the team you exactly want on Opening Day to get fans excited. But the park is packed because of the name on the mound. The Twins have done it. They've gone and got a front-line starter that is worthy of our attention. And guess what: he’s also hitting clean up. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports There are plenty of names that Twins fans know are almost entirely out of the payroll desires of the ownership group, making it easy to dismiss that someone like Jacob DeGrom, Justin Verlander, or Carlos Rodón will be in uniform next year. But given this is a long winter, it is never too early to dream up the impossible. This is where I present to you: Minnesota Twins Starting Pitcher and Designated Hitter Shohei Ohtani. Although Aaron Judge is almost certain to win the American League MVP award, Ohtani’s out-of-this-world performance likely made for some hesitancy on many ballots. After all, Ohtani not only continued to be the phenom two-way player that dazzled in 2021; he was genuinely both a better hitter and a better pitcher. In 2022, he slashed .273/.356/.519 with 34 dingers for a 142 WRC+, which would have made him the Twins best hitter had he played for them this season. Of course, what makes Ohtani impressive is that he threw 166 innings of 2.33 ERA ball including a 1.01 WHIP. Twins fans are (rightly) falling head over heels for both Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray, but both their ERAs shot over 3.00 and neither made it to 150 innings. By the way, Ohtani spent the druthers of August and September as the Angels fell out of contention inventing new pitches to throw and came close to a no hitter. If Dave St. Peter wants to complain about falling attendance at the park, what better way to go in on a once-in-a-generation talent? His numbers are already set at a $30 million arbitration, which would be no different than keeping the talents of Carlos Correa. He is Shohei Ohtani. Of course, the question is how exactly would Ohtani fit into the Twins organization, which is not as simple as slotting into rotations and batting orders might suggest. Under Joe Maddon, the Angels employed a six-person rotation to keep Ohtani’s arm loose, which might not be exactly what the Twins want. That being said, much has been made of the apparent depth of the Twins rotation now with a number of prospects finding their legs. That might work well for Ohtani’s needs with some rookies rotating in every month to help fill a void. It would also mean perhaps one less reliever spot, a choice that could certainly backfire. But Ohtani makes up for that too by going long into games as a pitcher, and no longer requiring strategy of DH management after MLB created a specific rule just for him. The trickier part for the Twins would be constructing the lineup. The Twins played around quite a bit with their Designated Hitter position in 2021, trying to use it as much for resting players and in particular as Byron Buxton battled through debilitating pain. The Ohtani equation would almost entirely remove that possibility, which means praying for a healthy Buxton to find a place in the field every day or only coming in for the right pinch-hitting opportunity. The Twins might then also want to pull the trigger on a Gio Urshela trade simply to place Jose Miranda as an everyday third baseman (or have two platoons with Luis Arraez and Alex Kirilloff doing the same over at first). This is perhaps the flaw that made Ohtani so wonderful in Los Angeles while finding himself in a Sisyphean Odyssey of watching batters who might be better fits at DH struggle in the field. Of course, the big question would be how much is an Ohtani trade worth given the Twins average-ish prospect farm (The Twins placed 18th on Keith Law’s 2022 list). For a possible comparison, look at what the Padres gave up to acquire Juan Soto. In order to get the Ted Williams-esque hitter alongside rental Josh Bell, AJ Preller dealt three of the five top prospects to the Nationals. Soto came with two additional years of arbitration time that the Padres will likely mitigate this off-season with an extension, which meant a higher cost than the one year of service left on Ohtani’s already set arbitration numbers. That might make the trades comparable, but the Padres were giving away players near the Top of Baseball America’s Top 100. The Twins would likely have to say goodbye to both shortstop prospects Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee—and that would just be the start for the pitching-desperate Angels. And at a time in which the Twins are desperate for a shortstop once again, they may find themselves watching magic on the mound while slapping their forehead for every swing and miss they place in another one-year low-cost rental in the spot. Then again, what would be more fun than watching a legend in the making? Why shouldn't this front office go into Five Blades Modes? If anything, an Ohtani trade is a good place to understand and evaluate the strength of the Falvey-Levine regime; because he can shift the balance of a team in so many ways, you can see how different a team would have to build in order to fully utilize his talents. But before he starts mowing down Twins players in pinstripes, it is still fun to imagine the opposite future being possible. View full article

In a season of slow unraveling, one moment that stuck out as a sign that things were likely not going to work out as Twins fans might hope was the (almost inevitable) call-up of Jake Cave. DFA’d by the Twins after his particularly rough 2021, Cave accepted his assignment with the St. Paul Saints where he could remain mostly in minor-league news tidbits. It was probably not the best hope for a player whose gray beard has always made him look double his age, but at least a home for less ire by a frustrated fan base looking to lay blame. Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff, USA Today Jake Cave’s return for 2022 felt frustrating in part when many expected the debut of prospects to be filling those lineup slots. But then an odd thing happened: I didn’t hate Cave this time around. He genuinely seemed to play better every time I expected the worst. And with the season’s doom leading toward more existential questions, a truly odd thought filled my head: Is Jake Cave Good? Let’s cut to the chase: Not particularly. Jake Cave slashed .213/.260/.384 (.624), only a minor improvement on last year’s .189/.263/.400 (.663) with basically the same number of plate appearances. His WRC+ hovered almost to 100—essentially league average—before crashing down to 81. And yet there was Cave hustling to first at Yankee Stadium to put Carlos Correa in position to smash a dinger to give the Twins the lead. In the critical Cleveland series, Cave hit a bomb off Triston McKenzie to provide the Twins an early lead. And if you looked out at the outfield, you could have sworn Buxton had transported himself into Cave’s body as he continually laid out to make a few diving catches. Cave showed significant improvement this year in numerous ways. His Triple-A stint surely helped as he posted a .879 OPS over 85 games, his best since his time in Rochester back in 2019 that eventually landed him on the big-league roster for the last four years. He went on a 49 plate on-base streak, only ended by an unlucky five-inning rain out where he only managed two plate appearances. When Cave first joined the Twins for the San Francisco Giants series at Target Field that gave one last fresh breath of air into the team, he managed to tie the game in the 9th inning with a single, and then the next day smashed a two-run homer and another double in a rousing victory. Cave cooled down into his more expected self, but a few notable stats stick out. First, Cave had become a big strikeout guy, particularly in the 2021 season where he was around 35%. Going back to Triple-A worked wonders. He dropped that to 25% and then only climbed up to 27% when he came back for the majors—still below league average, but an improvement. That came with a sacrifice of power. His BABIP slipped, but there was a big reason for Cave opting for singles: his speed score ballooned from 6.2 after a 3.7 in 2021. To put that into context, only Billy Hamilton and Byron Buxton posted faster speeds for Minnesota this season. I repeat: Jake Cave was the third faster player on the Twins this year. Cave was as fast as new-thorn-for-the-next-seven-years Steven Kwan. And when it came to his defense, his arm strength on Baseball Savant skyrocketed from a mediocre 46% to a shocking 79% within the league Most notably, Cave improved when it mattered. "Clutch" is a unique metric, but it measures your chance at Win Probability against the stakes of the plate appearance as compared to your overall season numbers (to say the least, Carlos Correa demonstrated a high win probability, but his Clutch was -0.91 given his problems delivering with runners on base. Let’s just call it a “heart and hustle” stat). Cave was second on the Twins in the second half of the season in Clutch, just shy of Gilberto Celestino. His dozen barrels doubled what he managed last year, and with his speed, he managed a trio of triples. In the second half, Cave posted a better OPS than Gary Sánchez, Celestino, Max Kepler, and Jorge Polanco. He hit about as well as the aging Nelson Cruz did for the Nationals except on a $800k contract that managed a half point of WAR—essentially quadruple his salary. It may have still been frustrating to see Cave batting fifth in a lineup for a playoff contention team, but Cave was hardly the problem given the improvements he demonstrated. With a huge roster crunch in the coming months, it is likely that Cave once again sees himself in a St. Paul Saints uniform unless another team is looking for some depth in the outfield. But unlike previous years, I have to salute a player who hustled his way into an unfortunate situation and did what he could. Update: The Baltimore Orioles have claimed Jake Cave off waivers. For much more Jake Cave content from Twins Daily, click here. View full article

Do we know at what point Correa needs to announce as free agent before his club option kicks in? I guess before Rule 5....

In the dire straits of September 2021, the Twins fanbase worried about the future of the franchise. The team had justifiably traded away both Nelson Cruz and José Berrios. Negotiations between Byron Buxton and the organization had fallen apart during the summer. A number of the team's exciting prospects were recovering from injuries and likely unavailable to at least start 2022. Plus, a contentious bargaining situation between the league and players had owners acting with caution. Image courtesy of Aaron Josefczyk-USA TODAY Sports Were the Twins to go the way of many teams and begin a long rebuild to return to contention? "I'm not using that word," Derek Falvey told the beat writers. Instead, 2022 would be a year for a reload. But what does a successful reload look like? The Twins set out to return to playoff contention as they had in 2019 and 2020. Doing so would require more money and trades than the team had done in previous years of Pohlad ownership. Teams often reload for playoff contention for several reasons but usually require a strong central core and only a few critical holes to fill. For the 2016 Red Sox, their last year with Hall of Famer David Ortiz and an ascending Mookie Betts, it meant grabbing David Price on a $217 million deal and Craig Kimbrel in a trade with San Diego. The team went from last to first in the division for the next three years, including a World Series ring in 2018. However, a better comparison for teams with smaller payrolls might be those 2005 White Sox. Their opening day lineup only featured three of the same faces from 2004, but none were rookies. Instead, Ozzie Guillén and Kenny Williams tried to rethink what kind of players to build around their core, grabbing AJ Pierzynski, Jermaine Dye, Tadahito Iguchi, and Scott Podsednik. Most of their core pitching returned, with Yankees pitcher Orlando Hernández filling in as their fifth man. Their salary ballooned from $65 million to $75 million, while the first-place Twins remained essentially static in the $50 million range. Of course, it was all worth it: the White Sox were an era-defining team, winning the division by six games, going on one of the all-time great post-season runs, and ending an 88-year-old championship drought. For the Twins going into 2022, there was enough in the revolver for one last go of a core set of players: Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton, Josh Donaldson, Luis Arraez, Mitch Garver, and Miguel Sano, plus some promise with Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Trevor Larnach, and Alex Kirilloff to step up (not to mention the many hopes around the arrival of Royce Lewis). Their bullpen had enough interesting names to build around. So why didn't the Twins work? First, the Twins had too many holes to fill, particularly in the starting pitching realm. Ober and Ryan had less than 100 innings under their belts, and Kenta Maeda was merely a glimmer of promise for a late-season comeback. The Twins needed a Day One starter, but quickly missed names like Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, and Noah Syndergaard, all of who made splashy but not impossible out-of-reach deals for the organization to match. When the market reopened, the Twins rebounded by making the smart move to trade their first-round draft pick for Sonny Gray. But then they went with not one not two but three different "fix me up" projects: Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, and Chris Paddack. Beyond Gray, that left five essentially unproven starters on opening day. The bullpen additions were equally shaky with the additions of Joe Smith and Emilio Pagán while dealing Taylor Rogers. Most importantly, the Twins essentially committed almost no new money in this realm beyond their trade capital, an odd sign for a team serious about contending. Of course, the Twins put money down this season with a pair of $100+ million contracts: an extension of Buxton and a second in a blockbuster deal to commit $35.1 million a year to Carlos Correa. Bringing in a playoff specialist like Correa was the essential move they needed. It at least felt part of their decision to erase bad clubhouse vibes by flipping Josh Donaldson for Yankees veterans Gio Urshela and Gary Sánchez. Neither Urshela nor Sánchez were the top Bronx bombers, but there was plenty of sense they were the kind of players who understood big spots and big games. And yet, the Twins probably remained slim in other veteran talent to reinforce their lineup. The previous year had demonstrated that the team did not have their prospects ready to go as eight different men took to center field to fill in injury after injury. Whether the Twins expected this year's injury woes to be worse than last year, their decision to depend entirely on prospects to back up Buxton and Kepler felt short-sided with plenty of low-end veterans available on the market (Kevin Pillar for example took a minor league deal with the Dodgers). A strong reload rarely means depending on new players—those 2005 Sox were all veterans beyond their season call-up of closer Bobby Jenks—but the Twins seemingly put a lot of hope on what feels like too many prospects suddenly becoming core players. Jose Miranda, Griffin Jax, and Jhoan Duran, have made themselves essential to this year's success, but others still have question marks about their long term viability (whether injury or ability). Either way, building through prospects is similar to what this year's Mariners have done where team has done after a long rebuild where they plan on years of contention after making a number of high profile trades and signings of known quantities to reinforce any flops of their prospects (Julio Rodríguez and George Kirby has outshined all potential, while Jarred Kelenic has essentially disappeared). Reloads are not just about graduating prospects; it's about building with those who don't need time to figure out their success. In another world, Donaldson was traded for prospects rather than big leaguers, and you could imagine Buxton, Polanco, and even Arraez packing their bags for other ballparks. Watching multiple seasons of poor performance in the hope of a good team down the road is no one's idea of fun, so the fact that the Twins pushed this year remains a blessing. But in retrospect, their approach in the reload feels odd. The Twins did increase their salary by 20% this season, but in the end, they were perhaps not in the place for the reload that wins championships. What was missing from the Twins reload? Sound off in the comments. View full article

I think a good question right now is why isn't Winder being used as a long relief guy or another one of the starters. Rather than go six innings, couldn't he become a third time through the rotation guy and go 3 innings every few days, maybe tie him around Bundy and Archer starts? The Twins currently are using six starters and Ober is on his way back. Seems like there's an essential opportunity to use there.

Just quietly wondering what it would have looked like with Duffy in the 10th last night.

Why was Wes Johnson so critical to this team's recent success? A look back at the changing perception of how he was brought on and how he's leaving. If you go back to the reports around the hiring of Wes Johnson, all of them are data analytic-obsessed articles. Not surprising: as late as 2019, signaling that Big Data was the future of everything still seemed like a good bet. The New York Times headline reads: "The Science of Building a Better Pitcher." Often noted, but still somewhat sidelined, is Johnson and his own personality. “He’s so bubbly, and he just bounces off the walls with energy,” described Texas Baseball Ranch found Ron Wolforth. He was as known for his skills as his nickname creator in college ball. And according to Dallas Baptist University head coach Dan Heefner in 2018, where Johnson often worked with the most scrappy of baseball prospects, it was not about simply reading the charts. "He really understands the numbers, but he can communicate it to a player in a way that simplifies it." The ultimate question of data in sports has been one the entire sport has been grappling with since 2002. There was a traditional way of doing things, and then there was the new way. Even in Joe Maddon’s exit interview with Ken Rosenthal, he had a few key words for upstairs management and their thoughts on how to play the game. This is what made Johnson unique and a critical part of this sports team and perhaps how sports teams continue to build from here on out: good data is only as good as its communication. Johnson, who is leaving for Louisiana State University, was an expert communicator and changed pitchers based not just on what he saw, but how they needed to learn. Going forward, the Twins and other sports will need to find ways to keep coaches like Johnson if they truly want to succeed. Johnson was hired in 2019 in retrospect as part of one particular mistake by the former front office. A struggling Twins team sent Ryan Pressly to the Astros, where his WHIP dropped from 1.33 to a 0.58 as the closer for their World Series contending team. In Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik's The MVP Machine, they reveal some critical details about what was happening in both organizations. The Twins data team knew about the effectiveness of Pressly’s curveball, but for one reason or another, could not find a way to explain it to the young pitcher. Pressly remembers that the Astros did at first throw too many charts with too many axises in trying to explain the effectiveness of his pitch, but the book notes the important role of Brent Strom, the oldest coach in the league and a particular joker as well in telling pitchers what they needed to know. Players might not understand MBAs, but when the right person tells them in the right way, it can transform how they develop. Derek Falvey explained in 2019 that he hired Johnson based on the kinds of data and analytical approaches used in college ball and seemingly hired Johnson on that basis. But in repeated articles of those on the ground since joining the team, Johnson is less a coach than a counselor. Having mentored with young guys barely understanding their mechanics much less how to bathe properly, Johnson had to learn how to talk to kids who might be easily erratic to new information. He developed trust first, and information second. During Sunday's broadcast and before he likely knew of the unexpected news, Chris Archer gushed about how much Johnson had essentially saved his career by developing their unexpected program for him despite the limited workload. As one article on 2020’s Spring Training (before COVID shut it down) suggested, “The key [for Twins pitchers] has been having a coaching staff and analytic department that has worked together to identify and deliver the message to the player in ways that can help them understand how it will help them on the field.” Rather than lead by analytics, he acted as a bridge. More so, what Johnson talks about with pitchers feels very different. Take this Twins Daily profile from 2019: Even though Gibson gets the last word, the joke buried inside is actually revealing of how Johnson connects the body rather than the numbers. It’s one thing to tell a player to throw their slider more and give them the expected batting averages; Johnson sticks close to the thing players understand best: what their body is feeling. A continuing anecdote appears in many of the Johnson profiles: he often let other pitchers do the work for him. This isn’t some lazy choice, but again, thinking about how to create effective communication. As Johnson told FiveThirtyEight in 2019: “I can’t always speak the language that gets them to learn the fastest. When [Martin Perez] first started with the cutter, I said, ‘Hey, you gotta go talk to Jake [Odorizzi].’ Your job as a coach is yes, to coach the guys, but it’s also to close the feedback loop and make it as small as possible.” And with this year’s rotation that barely knew each other, Johnson ensured the team fed of each other’s energy and made them into a family (likely leading to the $500 foul out competition) There is no rule against more coaches. Just ask the San Francisco Giants, who outperformed their projections by a stunning 20 games and the dozen or so they employ (according to a recent interview with Fernando Perez on Effectively Wild, he explained they use a log system to avoid contradictory information). Data has changed baseball, in some ways for the better. But replacing Wes Johnson might not be as easy as it looks, particularly during the midstream moment. These players—just like anyone playing baseball at any level—don't need to know the numbers. They need to know their own bodies. And coaching is a skill that might have changed over the last decades of baseball, but Johnson understood the critical skill: knowing how to tell players in the right moment. View full article

Huge performance by Gray tonight leading into tomorrow's double header.

Fwiw, this story from The Athletic in May does not sound like someone particularly upset with his job. It may just be a preference for college ball: Baldelli has one rule: Respect your teammates. Johnson has only one, too: He can’t be the only one in that dugout believing in you. It’s one of the first things he said to Paddack when he came over: You’re one of the best in the world, don’t forget that. It resonated. “The past few years I’ve been searching with a little doubt on the mound not having that conviction and confidence every single pitch. Getting hit around a little bit you can search up there on the mound,” Paddack said. “(Johnson) was like, ‘Look at what you did in ’19 before you had a curveball and a slider.’ He said, you’re a better pitcher than you were in ’19. Our goal is to put it all together now.” Paddack calls Johnson “a little firecracker” infusing the clubhouse with positive energy. Johnson is quick to credit the staff Baldelli has assembled and the way all the new pitchers have quickly bought into what the Twins are doing. The learning is just beginning. The competition to constantly one-up the last guy and push the Twins rotation and the team forward — what Buxton dubs the “bulldog mentality” — is something Minnesota’s starters aim to continue all season.

Two teams fired managers in the middle of the season already. These are jobs and workers have as much right to leave as the employer has to fire them.

When it comes to the looming trade deadline, most Twins mostly have their eyes on a number of high level starting pitchers. Of course, the Twins will be contending with a number of other teams for those players and haven't necessarily outbid in the past. As strong as the farm system is, the Twins have been less keen to trade core pieces in the past, while teams like the Dodgers and the Rays can easily depart with a literal starting ace pitcher in the hope of October glory (call it a bad trade that the Twins scored on, but the Rays are still playoff contenders and are hardly crying over the loss). Anyone watching this team meanwhile can see a different problem: a shaky bullpen in need of backup. The Twins currently have a high win percentage but a notably high FIP, which we have already seen act as a recipe for disaster (especially against playoff contending teams). The Twins might be in a better position to snatch a high-caliber arm to slot in every other day—if not two of them—to fill in some of their more questionable pieces. I’ve decided to highlight five arms from teams likely to be sellers at the deadline that the Twins might pursue. David Robertson (Chicago Cubs) K/9: 12.4, BB/9: 4.7 Like Joe Smith, David Robertson is a veteran pitcher at 37 with his fifth major league ball club, filling in a small role for the depleted Cubs as they enter what can only be described as their Pirates phase. After Tommy John, Robertson played a critical role on the 2021 Olympics squad, before signing with the Rays where he demonstrated a strong strikeout rate and low walk rate in his twelve appearances and four postseason appearances. Now with the Cubs, Robertson looks even better, quickly working his way to the closer role, where hitters are going .150 against him with a single home run in 23 innings of work. Unlike the younger pitchers like Duran who just throw for heat, Robertson is all about that spin. His cutter is now mixed into both a slider and a curveball, the latter two which have produced two hits total. Robertson basically is moving his ball all over the plate and players cannot get a barrel on it. The Cubs are eager for some prospects to rebuild the greatness of 2016 and following the model of quick signings they can flip for a high caliber prospect. Robertson’s surprising bargain contract is one the Twins should be immediately eying, either to play a late inning against the heart of the order. Anthony Bass (MIA) K/9: 8.3, BB/9: 2.1 Kim Ng’s Marlins are yet to become a playoff contending team, but she’s slowly building a set of arms that are just waiting to see the Phillies or Mets do the things that have made those fan bases literally a health hazard and sneak into the NL East top spot. But until then, they will need to flip some players and hope the owners actually allow for some serious spending. I tracked Anthony Bass while listening to some spring training games and the booth seems quite enthused. After struggling in 2021, Bass has become an eighth inning set up man with one of the hardest to hit pitches in the game. Hitters are barely making contact with his slider, which has produced a 38% whiffs. His sinker can be a problem, when pitchers are making solid contact. Miami hasn’t had too many competitive games, but Bass seems like a more reliable swing and miss guy to throw into the pen to come out maybe for the third time through the order. Plus, Bass has a $3 million club option for 2023, and it might be the right time to bring his arm into the Twins. Michael Fulmer (DET) K/9: 9.4, BB/9: 4.1 It’s not usual that the competition deals a player to their division rivals, but I don’t think the Detroit Tigers will be too picky about who gets one of their bright stars of their bullpen. Two seasons ago, the former Rookie of the Year was getting lit up for an ERA just under 9.00. Now he’s sitting at 2.35 over 23 innings with a slider that batters are barely touching and a fastball that’s touching 100 while becoming a bit of a mentor for the young arms out in Detroit. The walk rate is a problem—Fulmer is great with getting into the zone but hitters are rarely chasing anything out—and he hasn’t performed well in high leverage situations, so Fulmer might slide in for a mid-inning appearance against the bottom of a few line ups as the Twins make it through the dog days of summer. Given the necessity of the divorce from the Tiger, this might just be the cheapest trade the Twins can do and one they can easily depart if it doesn't work out. Daniel Bard (COL) K/9: 11.6, BB/9: 4.1 Daniel Bard plays at Coors Field, but he’s also kept players to a BABIP under 200 in the hitter friendly park (on the road, it’s .130). Bard’s basically abandoned his fastball by throwing a 98mph sinker alongside a much slower slider that hitters can’t tell the difference. Bard at once seemed done with the majors, but the success of that sinker with its incredible change up movement has been a secret sauce in his comeback in Colorado. Sporting a WHIP under 1.00 and almost as many strikeouts as the Rockies’ starters, opponents are averaging a paltry .141. He’s turning numerous ground balls, which is a perfect concoction when you had a defensive line of Carlos Correa and Gio Urshela to work with. Now we just need to get the Rockies to actually pick up their phones this year. Tanner Rainey (WSN) K/9: 11.1, BB/9: 3.4 On paper, Tanner Rainey might not look like the kind of player you trade for, but relief trades are about experimentation. Rainey mostly depends on a fastball that tops around 97 and a slider that hitters are missing half the time he throws it. Rainey essentially abandoned his change up from last year, focusing on increasing the spin on his fastball. He strikes players out about the same level as Griffin Jax with just a dent of a higher walk rate. Rainer has saved seven games in his 20 innings of work, and he hasn’t been as sharp in June, but he might be a critical piece for the bullpen in need of revival. Any other relievers you’ve been eyeing this season? Sound off in the comments. View full article

I think worth considering that if Correa were to sign long term (a) he would accept a lower year average (not by much, but think $31-32, at 10 years; if the Twins can afford him at this level, they can afford him a bit lower). This is a team currently with two of its three biggest contracts ever, but it's still about $10 million below its highest total. Secondly, if Correa signs, all the SS prospects become either backup candidates or trade candidates. At some point, the Twins are going to need to trade for something, whether starting pitchers or most likely a top catching candidate. Of course you want a back up SS, but it will make it useful to have these players who could be used by other teams if Correa becomes a long term figure in this org.

I think as Nick Nelson pointed out on Twitter, we can maybe be frustrated with how Rocco is resting players, but at least he isn't doing an intentional walk on a 1-2 count and literally getting a "Fire Rocco" chant going.

My thought is this wouldn't be a bad off season for the Twins to court Willson Contreras.

Like many teams throughout the league, the Twins have forgone a typical Designated Hitter, instead using the position to help some of the usual starters find a semi-rest day. The decision to forgo a permanent hitter in the decision has paid off— with MLB's strange ball tactics this season flying them barely out to the warning tracks, only three DHs are above .300. and it certainly looks like Father Time has finally caught up to Nelson Cruz. But if the Twins would like to see more than a pair of Wild Card games and a continued playoff losing streak, they need to find an effective way to use the DH. Without Cruz this year, the Twins have given a number of players a parade through the position. However, these hitters are currently batting around .234, which is essentially middle of the league. By breaking down who is taking those plate appearances, it becomes clear who has excelled in the position and who might just be better taking a full day of rest. I removed those who basically have a game or two to their name and looked at how these players have faired, and it will of course be seen how returning minor leaguers like Alex Kirilloff or Royce Lewis might fare down the stretch. 5. Byron Buxton As DH: 41 PAs, .114/.244/.200 As CF: 124 PAs, .250/.315/.607 It actually seems quite surprising in retrospect, but Byron Buxton never stood in the plate as DH a single time before this season. His 41 appearances at the plate are the definition of small sample, particularly when most have come after his unfortunate knee injury, but one thing is clear: the Twins could just rest Buxton when it comes to when he’s not playing CF. I’m as big of a Buxton defender as they come, but something doesn’t seem to sit right when he only appears from the bench. All reports about his continued knee injury seem to point to it effecting his hitting more than his defense. Does getting loose out in CF help him out? Again, we probably need to see Buxton look like April Buxton before we can make a final ruling, but it is clear that he might not be needed in this position if he can play full time in the field. 4. Ryan Jeffers As DH: 20 PAs, .167/.250/.167 As Catcher: 117 PAs, .165/.259/.301 It was close to see who was worse between Buxton and Jeffers, but I'm giving the edge to Jeffers on the advantage that he has only appeared as DH three times since the beginning of May, and two in these last couple weeks where bats have been depleted, But Jeffers has struggled at the plate; his WRC+ in the last month is a brutal 16 (where 100 is league average). The Twins have a troubling lack of prospects underneath their pair of catchers, meaning Jeffers is here to stay as long as he can frame. But given their plan to forgo a backup catcher in the roster, his lack of DH hitting should be a clear sign to keep him on the bench in case Gary Sánchez goes down. With only three singles in his 20 PAs, Jeffers doesn’t belong in the role, which seems to be now in the plan. 3. Kyle Garlick and Luis Arráez Garlick as DH: 11 PAs, .375/.455/.750 Garlick as Outfielder: 48 PAs, .250/.313/.614 Arráez as DH: 17 PAs, .333/.412/.333 Arráez as Infielder: 159 PAs, .348/.434/.406 I’m pairing the two mashers here for this team given their similarities: they have barely played more than a few games each as DH, yet both have shown tremendous numbers. Their problem is they could easily be put in the field. Garlick has proven himself entirely capable as an outfielder, while Arráez has triumphed at first base in his unexpected role. Garlick's three hits as DH have all scored runs, cementing his role as a bench weapon. Arráez DH role—particularly minimized after Miguel Sanó’s exit gave him a more permanent position,, essentially matched his now league leading batting average. But his DH performance on Sunday was the kind that makes him essential, reaching base in every at bat with four singles and a walk. As the Twins shuffle the line up through the season, having Arráez out of any line up will seem insane. 2. Trevor Larnach As DH: 26 PAs, .375/.423/.667 As Outfielder: 102 PAs, .225/.304/.416 In a year where minor leaguers have shown both greatness and questions, Trevor Larnach has quietly proven his weight in the big leagues. His playing time has been limited in right field behind a hot hitting Max Kepler, though he got to show some of his talents this weekend in Toronto because of…choices. Larnach’s lefty bat makes perfect for platooning out in the field, though notably has shown some incredible defensive skill in recent games. But the bat is what matters here, and Larnach has smashed four doubles and a homer alongside a handful of singles and walks when appearing as DH. As the outfield becomes a bit crowded with the likely return of Alex Kirilloff and Royce Lewis, Larnach will prove himself as capable bat by stepping into DH roles when needed. 1. Gary “El Gary” Sánchez As DH: 75 PAs, .246/.307/.449 As Catcher: 96 PAs, .221/.281/.453 Hot streaks are fickle. Players can burn bright for just a week and then seemingly disappear into the ether. And yet, it is hard not to feel joy when a hitter finds that sweet spot and pretend it might not last forever. Given how it felt like he was kicked to the curb in New York, Gary Sánchez’s hot streak has been the kind that brings a tear to your eye after every launched ball. Let’s put it this way. The Twins have 14 doubles from their designated hitters; Sánchez has hit 8 of them. Beyond the obvious candidates, Sánchez has justified having himself in the batting line up every day right now as the leading catchers in baseball in RBIs. He's hitting a lot like early season Buxton with some of the top percentiles in Hard Hit balls, Exit Velocity, and Barrels off the bat. His ISO during the last month puts him in the same conversation as franchise leaders like Manny Machado and George Springer. His strikeout rate is obviously not the best, but the opportunities it creates is why he has slowly moved up in the batting order. Put it this way: if you erased all the names from baseball, Rocco Baldelli would put Sánchez as lead off DH in lieu of Buxton. Not everything has clicked—most of Sánchez’s home runs have come on his catching days, but this is a man who is making the most of these extra ABs as a catcher. And when these bats are unreliable, Sánchez is proving his worth behind the plate with essentially now the same framing rate as Jeffers. In fact, Sanchez has a 0.5 fWAR to the Yankees' Kyle Higashioka with a -0.1 fWAR. Feeling out of place in New York, Sánchez seems at home in Minnesota according to the recent profile by Dan Hayes. In a line up where the Twins need power, Sánchez has quietly shown what it might look like. Who should DH for the Twins? Sound off in the comments. View full article

I know when the rumors of Correa expressing interest in a long term deal in Minnesota felt very cool, but I feel it's going to be difficult for the Twins to look at the combo of Lewis and Palacios and feel this is where they need to spend their money.

The Twins are pinch-hitting more than ever, finding success through surprising depth and smart deployment of these utility, platoon hitters. Injuries can kill a season, and Twins fans know this all too well. Watching this week as players like Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, Gilberto Celestino, and Sonny Gray all take IL stints for various issues have all given fans a bit more anxiety as they hope the team can hold their own against some of baseball's most brutal rotations in Toronto and New York (the less said about players who will not be crossing the border, the better). These injuries are also forcing the Twins to essentially miss out on their top advantage this year so far: pinch hitting. Watching this year, it is hard to not notice the amount of shuffling in the lineup during a game. Despite a strong core, it has become almost expected to see players like Kyle Garlick, Nick Gordon, and Celestino appearing in the latter half of a game. Until Miguel Sanó's injury found him a more permanent home at first, the plan with Luis Arráez was to go for his devastating bat against left-handed pitchers only. The Twins have leaned into platoons. So far in 2022, the Twins are fifth in baseball in pinch-hitting plate appearances, trailing the Giants, Rangers, Diamondbacks, and Cubs, and only by a few plate appearances. Of those teams that are leaning into the strategy, Minnesota leads in batting average and on-base percentage. This is not a new development for the Twins, who have been near the top of the American League in pinch-hitting for some time (the absence of a DH made NL pinch-hitting dwarf attempts in the AL until this year’s CBA). But the Twins are on track for more pinch-hitting this season than their previous years. More so, their depth is paying off. Let’s cover the usual caveat: pinch hitting might fall under the umbrella of Rocco Baldelli, but he rarely makes these decisions in isolation. There is a whole management team creating game plans for the manager to help develop these strategies. If you find yourself not a fan of these moves, it is highly unlikely you would see a different game plan under Jayce Tingler or another manager. And pinch hitting has its analytical track record; the Giants took 639 PAs by pinch hitters last season and made off with a record 25 home runs (plus the nickname "Late Night LaMonte" for one particularly successful pinch hitter in former Twins prospect LaMonte Wade Jr.). Using Baseball Savant, I looked at every time a batter came up to the plate who had not started the game by team and season. This system has its defects—it does not necessarily see a difference between Garlick coming in for a good southpaw matchup as opposed to his replacement of Max Kepler after his leg injury in Saturday’s game against Kansas City—but I decided to assume most teams have the same number of PAs that are the results of game injuries. More so, teams need to account for those moments; good teams are built on depth beyond the starters. As of Wednesday morning, the Twins have had 76 pinch-hitting plate appearances so far this season. Since the Baldelli Era began, they have pinch hit 189 and 226 times in the 2019 and 2021 seasons, respectively, and 68 times in the shortened sixty-game season. Given the Twins just rounded the quarter mark of the season, this means they could go just shy of 300 pinch-hitting attempts if they continue on course, a significant jump for the squad. More so, they’ve had more success in these PAs. 27 of the 76 plate appearances have resulted in a hit or a walk. They are batting .281/.382/.406 in these plate appearances, which puts them third in the league On Base Percentage behind only the Royals and the Red Sox (both whom are only around 50 PAs). Over half of these PAs have come on the traditional left-handed batters facing right-handed pitchers and resulted in a .355 batting average, the highest in the league for those teams with over 50 pinch hits this season. The biggest problem has been the power. Of the 27 PAs resulting in some sort of movement on the bases, all have been for singles and walks with the exception of a Kepler home run and a Trevor Larnach double, both during blowouts against the Rays. Even Gio Urshela's game-winning base hit in the amazing Kansas City comeback was a single scoring a single run with bases loaded when more would have put less pressure for the bottom of the ninth. I’m not about to criticize singles and walks—if the #9 batter can reach base, then that means Luis Arráez, (a hopefully better hitting) Buxton, or Correa have an opportunity to unleash. And a good two-thirds of these PAs are coming with at least a man on first if not in scoring position, where the Twins are batting .310 (the league average is .240 in these situations). In part, the Twins’ ability to pinch-hit demonstrates the success of this team with its surprising combination of great rookies with solid veterans. Falvey and Levine learned the hard way last year by trying to replace Buxton in Center Field only to find whiff after whiff within their minor league rosters,. Obviously, many of these pinch hitters are the same as last year, but now in dependable utility roles rather than being thrown into the lions' den to start these games. More so, if prospects like Lewis and Jose Miranda deliver along with possibilities like Spencer Steer, this could be a team with options all over the field. This is the construction every team should want: a mix of rookies all finding their edge as veterans lead the way. They just need to remain healthy for it to work. 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As an Oaklander, had to teach today so only got to go to last night's game. Grrr. But to go back to a question. The line last night was to make sure the bullpen rested, but Duran was brought out for the ninth today in a blow out. That suggests that he needed a go but....was that not really possible last night? When Thielbar could have taken the seventh to start and then Duran either the eighth and/or ninth? Maybe one more night's rest really helped, and this isn't meant to be Monday Quarterbacking, but "we can't touch the bullpen last night" didn't seem true about Duran today.