Peter Labuza

The Twins starter has had the most reliable track record of any of the arms Minnesota has used all season. So why can’t he simply start the game with a clean first inning? Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Bailey Ober turned in another stellar start on Sunday afternoon against the Toronto Blue Jays. Bouncing back from a rough outing against the Atlanta Braves, Ober struck out eight over six innings. The afternoon became Ober’s 11th quality start (six innings with three earned runs or fewer) in twelve outings, putting him in a very good place to lead the Twins through the rest of the season with a lock on the second playoff spot. Ober also once again demonstrated his Achilles heel, allowing a home run to Ernie Clement in the first. The 6-foot-9 righty has one of the more unique problems in baseball: flopping in first innings. Ober spots a 7.27 ERA in the first inning. While a lot of that has to do with his disastrous Kansas City start to begin the season and his recent Atlanta Braves mishap, removing those games still leaves him a 5.09 ERA, with a shockingly high 5.48 FIP. That includes 10 extra-base hits (including six dingers) and eight walks, even removing the catastrophic outings. Comparatively, the 2nd through 5th innings are gems for Ober: a 2.48 ERA and a 2.83 FIP. The strikeout-to-walk ratio is even more telling: Ober sports a 2.3 K/BB ratio to begin the game, but then it doubles to 5.2 from the 2nd inning onward. Of all MLB starters, Ober ranks sixth-worst when comparing his xWOBA in the 1st inning against what he puts up during 2nd through 5th inning. (Ironically, Cy Young candidate Chris Sale ranks worse than Ober, but only because he has been so dominant otherwise). It is a notable difference among the Twins’ four main starters this season: Player 1st Inning BA 2nd-5th Inning BA 1st Inning xWOBA 2nd-5th Inning xWOBA Bailey Ober .281 .212 .364 .279 Pablo López .240 .257 .291 .301 Simeon Woods Richardson .169 .249 .269 .325 Joe Ryan .247 .208 .255 .274 So why does Ober perform so poorly to start the game, only to bounce back seemingly every time? Smart baseball people will tell you that innings are irrelevant: what matters is how many times through the order, with most pitchers fairing quite poorly the third time through. And while Ober’s stats certainly improve the second time through, they are nowhere near as distinctive as those first-inning stats: his xWOBA drops from .281 to .235, while opponents' batting average increases from .192 to .200. So what does Ober do differently when it comes to his first inning? He's not the first pitcher to suffer from the problem. Some pitchers have had an even worse case. But in the aggregate, bad first innings often lead to bad outings. Not so for Ober. My first theory was his pitch type; Ober throws too much of his fastball, or cutter, or what-have-you. But as Ober has suffered bad first innings, he has switched up his approach multiple times, only to see the plans go awry. Ober uses his three main pitches—the fastball, cutter, and changeup—about the same amount in the first three innings, with slight variations, though hardly enough to make any meaningful argument. The next argument would be about the zone. Does Ober change up where he is landing pitches? We can see his pitches staying relatively in the same place when it comes to righties on the outside: But you see more and more movement when it comes to lefties and the inside part of the plate: This chart finally put me onto what might be happening. If you look at xWOBA, left-handed hitters have been lighting up Ober on inside pitches, for a difference of .258 for righties but .391 for lefties. And the lefties in the first inning absolutely have his spot: In the 2nd through 5th innings, righties marginally improve to .298, but lefties drop precipitously, to .225. Ober seemingly cannot figure out lefties until after the first inning. Nine of the 12 extra-base hits by Ober opponents have come from lefties (who have a first-inning SLG of .659, vs. .256 for righties). And notably, all of them are in pitcher-friendly counts: six with two strikes, and two on the first pitch (the only one on 3-2 count was also the only one on a misplaced changeup, to José Ramírez). These are some of the best players in the game—Shohei Ohtani, Corey Seager, Bryce Harper—but Ober clearly has struggled all season with this situation. Teams have been very aware of Ober’s early lefty problem, which explains why the problem manifests in the first inning rather than the entire first time through the order. He’s faced 57 lefties in the first inning, but only 44 lefties in the second, and often that means the top players in baseball. Meanwhile, he’s faced 55 righties in the first, compared to 51 in the second inning. So can Ober figure it out? Ironically, his start against the Blue Jays might have showed a path forward. Clement got the home run, but the other three hitters that inning were lefties. None of them would see a pitch on the inside portion of the plate. In fact, the only pitch anywhere near the inside was this harmless pop out by Nathan Lukes: Lukes Pop up.mp4 Moreover, Matt Olson’s home run was Ober’s first hit allowed in the first against a lefty since Jul. 22. Perhaps this is all relatively unimportant, since Ober remains not just this team’s co-ace, but one of the league’s best pitchers. If Sale can win a Cy Young with the same problem, why not Ober? In part, it's the potential. It's taken Sale almost a decade for him to put together a season like the one he is having now. And if Ober wants to enter that echelon early (or more importantly, not give every Twins fan a nervous breakdown in October), solving this problem now is necessary. If Ober can manage to end his first-inning woes, he might legitimately reach the ace level we hope for. View full article

Switch-hitter Willi Castro won an All-Star spot in the first half by smashing both lefties and righties. Now, he suddenly can't buy a hit against a southpaw. Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports On Monday night against the Royals, Willi Castro had another signature moment in his impressive, burgeoning career. Down by a run, Castro launched a homer off right-hander Brady Singer, giving the Twins a two-run lead and pushing the team on toward an 8-3 win. In Wednesday’s loss, Castro fared less well, with two strikeouts and an extremely soft line out to lefty Cole Ragans. An 0-for-3 day against one of the best starters in the game (plus a popout against reliever Lucas Erceg) would usually be nothing to worry about. However, the bad day fits into an alarming trend for Castro since the end of June. He became an All-Star, in part, due to his switch-hitting prowess--especially his ability to punish left-handed pitching. But since the start of July, he has become an automatic out for southpaws. The numbers should be ringing alarms within the Twins front office. Castro dropped from a stellar 202 WRC+ against left-handed pitching in the first half to a mind-bogglingly low -49 WRC+. He is 2-for-38, with only two walks and 10 strikeouts. I cannot emphasize this enough: From the beginning of the season through June, Castro was the best hitter against left-handed pitching on the team. Now, he sits dead last. Lefty pitching usually means small sample sizes, but it is quite impossible to look at these numbers and not see someone who has lost themselves at the plate. Month BA Against RHP xBA Against RHP BA Against LHP xBA Against LHP Mar/Apr .197 .225 .345 .259 May .250 .266 .417 .276 June .274 .255 .360 .291 July .250 .221 .080 .208 August .355 .341 .000 .107 Castro’s usefulness to the Twins remains substantial. He fills multiple shoes throughout the defense, and plays practically every day. Crucially, during this disastrous period, he still holds a more-than-healthy 120 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. But if the team’s health improves, it will be hard to imagine a role for him with a lefty on the mound; he could be relegated to platoon duty. What is behind this brutal drop? Simply put, lefty pitchers are finding out where to put fastballs against him. Castro has yet to hit a single fastball by a left-handed pitcher for a hit, and you can see here that they’ve finally found his weak spot from the right side of the plate, where Castro is letting balls go by and putting himself in weak counts. That often means he forces himself into swinging at anything coming by, in the hope of finding contact. Although it looks much more red all over in his early months, what the data is showing is how Castro had no particular spot that he would hold back. Now it’s clear what to do as a southpaw: start on the outside part of the plate and get him quickly into pitcher-friendly counts. This remains a fascinating wrinkle in Castro’s game. After all, the reason Castro has been a recipient of a staggering number of Hit-By-Pitches is because of right-handed pitchers trying to play him inside. But comparatively, left-handed pitchers are working him away, where he gets overeager. His whiff rate against lefties is just a hair under 50%, meaning half the time he swings, he just flat-out misses the ball. Left-handed pitchers are simply putting the ball on the outside edge, where he cannot seem to find it. Castro's best spots are more inside the plate; he finds himself reaching out for balls on the outside and making weak contact. One theory was floated by broadcaster Cory Provus during a game this week. Provus reminded viewers that Castro originally had a poor start to the season, but as he moved around to each position, he quickly found his swing. Since the beginning of July, Castro has almost entirely been relegated to the infield (despite the needs in the outfield), and since Brooks Lee’s injury, he's remained at shortstop. It would be hard to believe this kind of change in defensive responsibilities could make a difference, especially when Castro remains an essential hitter against right-handed pitching, but perhaps the repetitive motion of throwing strongly with his right side across his body over to first base is adding a strain. Or, perhaps more conspiratorially, Castro is nursing an injury unbeknownst to the clubhouse that has affected his right side. Let's assume, for a moment, that he's healthy. That certainly doesn't preclude the rest of Provus's theory. One very difficult thing about being a switch-hitter is that one must maintain two different swings, which can be exhausting and extra difficult. Paradoxically, though, you're two different hitters, but you're still only one person. A change from nomadic defensive responsibilities to playing the same place every day means changing one's mindset to half of one's job, and it's plausible that that would lead a switch-hitter into some trouble with the highly plastic task of maintaining two distinct offensive approaches. Hurt or healthy, what is notable is how controlled Castro's recent swings are--but not always in a good way. When batting as a lefty, Castro can look a bit all over the place, leaning in and out from the plate and losing his balance in the process. But look at this pitch against Cubs reliever Drew Smyly on an 0-2 count, in an area where Castro once punished the ball: Smyly Out.mp4 The swing seems almost casual, and the lack of power is quite obvious. Look at how his hands seem to drop immediately after making contact. It is, simply put, not a Big Swing. Look at a recent left-handed swing where Castro finds a hanging cutter and see the difference: castro double.mp4 You can see the power on display. The whole body leans into the swing. Something different is happening when Castro swings from the right. Castro’s days as a starter against southpaws feel numbered, if things do not turn around. While Rocco Baldelli has kept him hitting first against right-handed pitching, he found himself in the six-hole against Ragans Wednesday. If Correa returns soon, I might imagine him dropping down even below catchers Ryan Jeffers and Christian Vázquez. Nobody wants to see it, but moves might become necessary faster than expected. What do you think is behind Castro’s plummeting numbers? Sound off in the comments. View full article

After multiple shortened, hampered campaigns, the Twins have managed to keep a healthy Byron Buxton on the lineup card and stationed in center field, while still having him smashing at the plate. Image courtesy of © Brian Bradshaw Sevald-USA TODAY Sports When Byron Buxton signed his extension in the late winter of 2021, there was one central question on most Twins’ fans mind: even with a team-friendly deal, would Buxton play enough to make it worth it? Both the 2019 and 2020 campaigns ended with injuries. When a fastball to the hand limited his 2021 season, he came back too late to make a difference in the losing season. The next year reminded us all how great he can be when he's on the field, but ended without him, while 2023 demonstrated the pitfalls of protecting his playing time. This campaign has been entirely different, however. Buxton has been a consistent center fielder, whose bat has only gotten hotter every month. He's slashing .276/.335/.517 on the season. Since May 1, the only outfielders who have accumulated more WAR are Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Jarren Duran. Any long-term worries an early slump prompted have dissipated. More importantly, he has done it not by spending most days as a DH, but in the field, where fans have come to love him. For once, Buxton seems to have survived a collision with the wall unharmed. He's only a fistful of games from matching his 2019 innings total in the outfield, a number he hasn't reached in any of the intervening years. Let’s just say this guy has been out of work. The Twins’ approach in 2024 has been defined clearly: rather than protect Buxton to keep him all season, they have let him loose, without special constraints. But a few notable differences have kept Buxton healthy, and might make for his star-turning moment in October. Forget the DH In 2023, the Twins organization decided it was their job to protect Buxton from injuries, but their plan backfired. The team watched him struggle as the designated hitter, a skill that has made a number of players frustrated in recent years. In an in-depth article by Hannah Keyser, a number of regular DHs—including Andrew McCutchen, Bryce Harper, and Giancarlo Stanton—discussed the difficulty of finding a groove when not spending their time on their toes. Early in the season, Buxton was still seeing a mixture of scheduled off days, center field time, and DH duty. He started as the DH four times in April, and had six off days that month, leading up to his stint on the injured list in early May. Their initial strategy continued to be the same disaster as last year, resulting in a .211/.211/.263 line. He has not done a day at DH since May 22. Buxton still gets more days off than other teammates, but this change in policy has worked for the best. Buxton had the third-best month of his career in July, and he's blasted five homers and three doubles in his last 12 games. Good, Not Great Defense Notably, Buxton’s defensive metrics are down. He's been worth 3 Defensive Runs Saved, but that reflects a pace toward only 5 or 6 in a full season, which would be the worst such mark for him since his rookie campaign of 2016. Meanwhile, SABR’s Defensive Index, which is used to determine Gold Glove winners, has given Buxton a negative rating so far. Defensive metrics (not to mention Gold Glove finalists) are notoriously difficult to evaluate, and sometimes have resulted in questionable winners. Plus, all the metrics still put him above his stopgaps, like Willi Castro and Austin Martin. Buxton has certainly made fewer superstar catches than he had in previous years (though there have been a few stellar moments, like the daring play he made Sunday). And as much as I have watched, I cannot recall many moments where I felt he had taken his foot off the gas. Perhaps Buxton only goes 80% to 90% while out in the field, rather than 110%. Only he could say. But if there are no moments where one could point to his defense as a problem, one must admit this plan is working. Speed Over Steals Earlier in the season, Buxton suggested he and Willi Castro would fight it out for 30 stolen bases. Neither has come close, with Buxton only nabbing six bases so far (while being caught twice). That’s even less than last year, when he managed 15 steals over the disappointing half-season. That follows out of a year where—Elly De La Cruz excepted—stealing has continued its upward tick, with new rules making steals easier. So what happened to that early confidence? While steals are certainly aesthetically pleasing, they are also not worth that much in value. Buxton has instead used his speed with the ball in play—by speeding across bases, turning singles into doubles or bringing a run across when others put the ball in play. Buxton has always had elite sprint speed, but his 29.6 feet per second this season is his fastest since 2021. Stealing is an art, but baserunning aggressiveness can often create runs in a way steals cannot. Perhaps there is an injury Buxton is trying to avoid by stealing—it would be worth asking him why his early season prediction went south. (The team is set to have a similar number of steals to last year, but Castro has significantly decreased his stolen base attempts, as well.) But if the Twins are getting all the beauty of Buxton’s hustle along the bases without having to resort to steals, then all the better for it. All for October The Byron Buxton Resurgence can end at any moment. Twins fans know it too well. A misplaced ball could end it all. Or perhaps a lumbering sausage. Sunday was the latest close call. But the Twins have found an adjustment that works, giving us the Buxton we all want. Now, we just need to hope it lasts. View full article

The Minnesota Twins are on pace to break a painful record in 2024: most times hit by a pitch at bat. Here's a look behind how players like Willi Castro and Ryan Jeffers are taking lead on a not-so-pleasant stat. Image courtesy of © Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports Willi Castro had a chance to break the game open against the Pittsburgh Pirates. It was the top of the 10th inning. Although the Twins had brought a run across the plate, the automatic runner in extra innings meant no guarantee of a win. Castro fell behind early with two strikes, but then got a lucky break. Except in his mind, it wasn’t so lucky: The Twins have been the recipients of 57 plunkings over the first half of the season—one ahead of their rivals, the Cleveland Guardians. That’s on pace for over 114 hit by pitches (HBPs), eight more than the record set by Buck Showalter’s Mets in 2022. And if Matt Wallner rejoins the squad, given his penchant for hit by pitches, they will almost certainly set an unexpected record. Plunk me once, shame on you. Plunk me twice, shame on me? It certainly seems like more than dumb luck that the Twins have become targets for those on the mound (and on top of that, very good luck that Carlos Correa narrowly missed a few broken bones in the rubber game against the Diamondbacks). But there are some surprising decisions by the batters that have resulted in the not-so-lucky chase for bruised glory. Hit by pitches have generally increased in recent years. What was once limited to a revenge decision (and as we saw Kody Funderburk plunk Blaze Alexander, occasionally still is) has become quite common in recent years. While I cannot say for certain, I do not believe any of the HBPs this season have been thrown with malice. Instead, it's just the new norm. With pitchers throwing more gas on off speed pitches and three true outcomes pushing for more pitches in general, teams seemed to have accepted there is little difference between a walk and an HBP. And in the same way that “he gets on base” might have become the first turn toward baseball analytics, teams are willing to let players take the base. Teams have certainly begun strategizing for “plate crowding.” During the 2021 Astros-Braves World Series, the not-so-great catcher Martín Maldonado came up to bat with the bases loaded in Game 5. Maldonado specifically chose to crowd the plate and took a plunk from A.J. Minter’s wild cutter. “Did you guys notice how close he was to the plate on the at-bat against Minter?” A future Twins shortstop told The Athletic at the time. “That was sick.” Perhaps Correa brought that energy to the Twins, though in the words of Jean Renoir, everyone has their reasons. There is one curious stat that helps us understand exactly why these HBPs might be landing on Twins’ arms more than others. Baseball Savant provides a stat called Plate X, an advanced metric that measures the horizontal distance of the ball when crossing the plate from its direct center. Obviously, the Plate X for all HBPs is going to be further out than 0. But when you break out each player, most of them are below the MLB average. These are not balls traveling that far outside the zone. # of Ht By Pitches Plate X (Closer to 0, Closer to Plate) MLB Average - Righties -1.94 Margot 3 -1.66 Correa 2 -1.68 Jeffers 11 -1.77 Castro (RHB) 1 -1.81 Farmer 6 -1.83 Buxton 7 -2.21 Miranda 3 -2.18 MLB Average - Lefties 1.99 Castro (LHB) 10 1.76 Wallner 4 1.52 Kepler 3 1.76 Santana (LHB) 3 2.01 Two hitters in particular are leading the way: Ryan Jeffers and Willi Castro. Both have been hit 11 times. There are obvious reasons why pitchers pound them low and inside. They swing and miss most often when locating there, and when they do it, it’s most likely to be a ground ball: Jeffers is a curious case. When asked about the bruises, Jeffers simply described himself as turning into an armadillo, unable to really move out of the way. But looking at his actual plate appearances, there is a curious problem he faces: Jeffers is a toe tapper when he swings: Many players throughout baseball end up tapping their foot before grounding, but what makes Jeffers a curious case is he does it so late in his swing. Here are three images from games where Jeffers is right about to be hit—the ball is halfway to the plate and Jeffers has not yet begun to move. He’s too busy setting his timing with the darn toe: No wonder why he has little time to get out of the way. Castro is a different case. At 6’1” and just a bit over 200 lbs, he is a rather slight player. He has also admitted he likes to crowd the plate. But more than anything, he really, really loves to swing across the whole plate. This would not be a problem if Castro was Aaron Judge. But because he is a little guy with a below-average swing length, he often throws his whole body into it. If you look at his home runs, he will often end up with a foot right in the middle of the zone because of the amount of spin on his body. Here are three home run machines and Castro at the end of their home runs, and you can see where the body lands: Castro uses his body so much that, well, he can end up on his ass, which we saw against the Diamondbacks: Castro Falls Down.mp4 So what does that have to do with HBPs? Castro loves hunting for that nicely placed ball on the outside of the zone, so he is certainly standing closer to the plate. This is not someone thinking about getting hit. Instead, he is simply fishing to ensure those meatballs end up as dingers. The common thread here is balance, and the ability it provides to get out of the way when the ball comes at you. Jeffers gets his front foot down very late, which leaves him almost no time in which to make a move, because you can't bail out effectively with that foot in the air. Castro has the foot down sooner, but is transferring his weight and a whole lot of kinetic energy down through that leg just as the ball is reaching him. He's even more locked into his spot in the box than Jeffers, just with the other leg. You'll often see some hitters raise their hands, go casually up on tip-toes, and let a ball sail by, within a few inches of their pants or shirtfront. Neither Jeffers nor Castro really has that move in their bag of tricks. Other Twins are creeping up in HBPs: Byron Buxton has now reached seven, a curious case given how much he deliberately chooses to not crowd the plate, while Kyle Farmer has six (notably in low playing time) and Santana sits at four. (Wallner, in his brief time at the beginning of the season, also amassed four.) But no one is doing it like Jeffers and Castro. After becoming the Bomba Squad in 2019, I doubt the Twins hoped to become the Bruise Squad. But, recent offensive production suggests whatever the team is doing at the plate is working. So, let us salute the beans! Let those smacks lead to runs scored. Just watch out for those dear little bones. View full article

Better swing discipline in the zone has put the Twins' infielder into the everyday lineup. With the minors likely behind him, he's coming into his own. Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports If you tried to rattle off a list of hot Twins players right now, you’d probably mention José Miranda in the second tier of solid hitters for this team. But what is interesting about Miranda’s renaissance is how little has changed from his disastrous 2023 season, when a bad start sent him back to the minors before a shoulder injury ended his season. In 2024, Miranda still lacks true power in his swing. He draws very few walks. And his strikeout rate has shown only marginal improvement. Instead, Miranda is simply hitting more in the zone. When players fix their approach at the plate, it usually has a lot to do with finding their sweet spots. When Carlos Correa struggled at first in 2022, he snapped out of it when he finally stopped chasing difficult pitches outside the zone. Miranda still swings at the same number of pitches outside the zone, though he has improved how often he hits them by about 5%. Instead, Miranda has found more contact within the zone. In fact, Miranda has an in-zone contact rate of 90.5%, which puts him in the top 50 within the league for players with over 150 plate appearances and is the highest for any Twins player (except Max Kepler, who just caught up). But the case becomes more complicated when we look at his heat maps. Miranda is focusing entirely on his sweet spots. Rather than simply swing if a ball is in the zone, Miranda now focuses on mostly hitting in the top of the zone: Because he’s been a foul machine, Miranda is the best Twins hitter with two strikes, hitting .244/.261/.384. The closest regular is Carlos Santana, who is only hitting .214. Miranda has only let seven called third strikes go by. How does Miranda take advantage of fouls? Let’s take a look at this at-bat in Houston against Ronel Blanco. The result here is a walk, but Miranda fouls off seven pitches to get there. Blanco starts off with two pitches pretty far outside the zone, so Miranda let both of them sail by. That puts him into swing mode. He then gets a pitch just above the zone and right in his sweet spot, so he smacks it foul. Pitch 3.mp4 Blanco puts the next outside the zone, but quite close to Miranda’s sweet spot. He chases and makes contact, making it 2-2. Every pitch here, now, could put him away, so Blanco goes to the slider up in the zone, and Miranda takes a swing at it, throwing it into the stands. Pitch 5.mp4 He then tries a fastball in the same position, hoping that the batter won’t catch up. Miranda makes contact anyways. Pitch 6.mp4 He then tries the change up down in the zone. This time Miranda tries for his low angle swing but ends up topping the ball into the ground. Pitch 7.mp4 Blanco tosses another slider away that Miranda refuses to chase, so he tries another changeup, just a little inside. But Miranda still catches most of it and throws it away foul. Pitch 8.mp4 Finally Blanco will throw it away, and Miranda will take his base. Five of the pitches he saw were two-strike offerings in the zone. And Miranda refused to let a single one of them go by. While Miranda has improved, one wonders if this approach will last. Miranda has the highest “called strike” rate of his career, at 16.4%. And as pitchers adjust to his more controlled approach, they will certainly work on pinpointing those spots he prefers to avoid. It’s also affecting his power. Miranda is generally hitting harder and has a stronger barrel rate, but a significantly lower Hard Hit rate. That could mean that when pitchers find the right spot, they force him into more dribblers, rather than line drives. His swing doesn't seem able to sustain its speed down in the zone, the way it does when he gets the ball up at the belt or above. More adjustments loom. That's always the case. But for now, Miranda has got his shot. And he certainly got his bat speed up on a pitch down in the zone Thursday afternoon. What do you think about Miranda’s changed approach at the plate? Or do you think pitchers will take advantage? View full article

A casual remark on by Twins Broadcast Cory Provus ignites a deep dive on a fascinating statistic within baseball: how often do first basemen take a ground ball to their base themselves? Featuring charts and graphs! Image courtesy of Rafael Suanes-USA TODAY Sports If you've watched the Twins broadcast this season (or at least have fond memories, as it remains blacked out), perhaps you recall hearing Cory Provus say this (as I have noticed quite a few times): “And Santana will take it himself, as he often does.” Provus is, of course, referring to the Twins' primary first baseman, Carlos Santana, whose excellent defense has made up for his lagging offense. But Provus’s point was getting at something different. If a grounder is hit at Santana near first, he is more likely to get up and make for the bag rather than make the toss to the pitcher to get the out. Occasionally, as we saw in Thursday’s win over the Royals, this can be quite spectacular to watch: But sometimes, in cases where a toss would be easier, Santana will take it himself: But this remark got me asking: is it true? Does Santana actually lead the league in what TD Managing Editor Matt Trueblood and I have coined as the TiH (Take it Himself) Rate? Or is Cory Provus a liar, deceiving audiences everywhere with claims to create the wrong perceptions to poison this beautiful game? (If you’re reading this, Cory, this a joke and we love you here at TD. Even if Cory's not reading this, we love him.) Choosing whether to make the run to first is a split-second decision. It depends on the position of the first baseman, the speed of the batter, whether the pitcher is hustling over, how the ball was hit, and well, a lot of things. It's always a risk. In one costly decision earlier this season, Santana tossed it to pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson, whose run had briefly paused earlier and thus allowed a single: But sometimes Santana is just playing nice with the pitcher, who perhaps wants a reward for his little hustle: In trying to look at the obvious statistics, such as Exit Velocity or Expected Batting Average, there was no obvious pattern to when Santana made which choice. But we can use two key stats from Statcast—hc_x and hc_y—alongside a little trigonometry to estimate the Spray Angle of the ball (with the higher number essentially closer to first base and the foul line). We can thus evaluate whether the proximity to first base matters: As we can see here, the spray angle does certainly make a difference, though not always. In the examples closer to second, Santana usually waits a bit on soft contact to field the ball, thus requiring the pitcher to head over and the toss to be made: But what is most remarkable in this data is the overlap space. And we can certainly see from the data points that Santana has a positive TiH. But does he have one higher than the rest of the league? What exactly is an average TiH%? Using Baseball Savant, I was able to take every single grounder to first this season by any player (this data also removed singles and errors like the one with Woods Richardson above, so there is potential for more to be examined here). After removing those who had yet to have many opportunities, we can see where Santana ranks among this season’s first basemen: Player Team Opportunities TiH Count TiH% Encarnacion-Strand, Christian Cincinnati 34 24 70.6% Montero, Elehuris Colorado 32 22 68.8% Cronenworth, Jake San Diego 57 38 66.7% Díaz, Yandy Tampa Bay 42 27 64.3% Olson, Matt Atlanta 56 36 64.3% Walker, Christian Arizona 78 50 64.1% Vaughn, Andrew Chi White Sox 50 32 64.0% Santana, Carlos Minnesota 54 34 63.0% Flores, Wilmer San Francisco 38 23 60.5% Busch, Michael Chi Cubs 50 30 60.0% Tellez, Rowdy Milwaukee 40 23 57.5% Schanuel, Nolan LA Angels 40 23 57.5% Naylor, Josh Cleveland 51 29 56.9% Alonso, Pete NY Mets 56 31 55.4% Mountcastle, Ryan Baltimore 49 27 55.1% Torkelson, Spencer Detroit 50 26 52.0% Goldschmidt, Paul St. Louis 58 30 51.7% Lowe, Nathaniel Texas 37 19 51.4% Guerrero Jr., Vladimir Toronto 34 17 50.0% Bell, Josh Miami 33 16 48.5% Harper, Bryce Philadelphia 64 31 48.4% Pasquantino, Vinnie Kansas City 47 22 46.8% France, Ty Seattle 56 23 41.1% Rizzo, Anthony NY Yankees 57 19 33.3% Freeman, Freddie LA Dodgers 64 19 29.7% Wade Jr., LaMonte San Francisco 34 10 29.4% As it turns out, Provus is on the right track. Santana sits at 63%, in about the top third of regular MLB first basemen. His rate is especially high when compared to some of the league’s better-known first basemen like Freddie Freeman and Anthony Rizzo; the shorter and slower Santana is, in fact, more than twice as likely to hustle the ball to first than toss it to the pitcher. Of course, 2024 provides a small sample size. What happens when we go back to the 2023 season and put Santana’s time between the Pirates and the Brewers in context? Player Team Opportunities TiH TiH% Cronenworth, Jake San Diego 96 75 78.1% Pratto, Nick Kansas City 79 61 77.2% Flores, Wilmer San Francisco 73 53 72.6% Cooper, Garrett Miami / San Diego 74 53 71.6% Gurriel, Yuli Miami 73 51 69.9% Abreu, José Houston 141 97 68.8% Noda, Ryan Oakland 83 56 67.5% Vaughn, Andrew Chi White Sox 146 98 67.1% Olson, Matt Atlanta 169 112 66.3% Walker, Christian Arizona 158 103 65.2% Guerrero Jr., Vladimir Toronto 119 77 64.7% Naylor, Josh Cleveland 94 59 62.8% Wade Jr., LaMonte San Francisco 128 74 57.8% Santana, Carlos Pittsburgh / Milwaukee 175 99 56.6% Díaz, Yandy Tampa Bay 119 66 55.5% Torkelson, Spencer Detroit 120 62 51.7% Lowe, Nathaniel Texas 151 74 49.0% Mountcastle, Ryan Baltimore 112 53 47.3% Casas, Triston Boston 128 59 46.1% Goldschmidt, Paul St. Louis 161 73 45.3% Tellez, Rowdy Milwaukee 70 31 44.3% France, Ty Seattle 152 65 42.8% Freeman, Freddie LA Dodgers 160 67 41.9% Smith, Dominic Washington 164 66 40.2% Alonso, Pete NY Mets 163 62 38.0% Rizzo, Anthony NY Yankees 122 38 31.1% Here we notice a few things. Firstly, Santana’s rate is notably higher so far this year than it was in 2023, only taking it to first base just over half the time (he also notably had the most opportunities for a TiH at 175). We also can see that for those with the most playing time—such as Matt Olson, Christian Walker, and José Abreu—a top rate ends up around 65-69%, which Santana currently sits just under for the season. The exception is Jake Cronenworth, who both this and last year is a league leader in TiH%. That might make sense—the former shortstop has been an elite second baseman for the team but currently finds himself over at first due to an influx of shortstop prospects on the team. So, Santana has been "better" (more TiH-y, anyway) this year, but what can we expect career-wise? Santana began playing first base with regularity in 2015, so we can look at his historical TiH% with each team he’s played with: Here we can see that once Santana got to a point of playing first base with some regularity, he has always been above-average in TiH rate. It seems to vary by team, and while we might speculate that the Guardians and the Mariners have above-average pitching (and thus create above-average TiH rates), nothing can explain Santana's monster 2021 season--wherein he Took It Himself on 92 of 122 opportunities (the Royals had an abysmal pitching staff that year). But then there’s one last question: where does Carlos Santana rank among the Twins greats? Provus has been calling for the squad since 2011; surely he knows a high TiH-er when he sees one. This is where things are a bit surprising: Player Opportunities TiH TiH% Miranda, Jose 63 54 85.7% Sanó, Miguel 170 132 77.6% Arraez, Luis 51 39 76.5% Cron, C.J. 118 86 72.9% Cuddyer, Michael 172 117 68.0% Vargas, Kennys 102 69 67.6% Kirilloff, Alex 92 61 66.3% Parmelee, Chris 117 75 64.1% Santana, Carlos 54 34 63.0% Colabello, Chris 51 30 58.8% Morneau, Justin 639 354 55.4% Santana ranks near the bottom in TiH Rate for Twins first basemen, notably lagging behind recent regulars like José Miranda and Luis Arráez (who has played notably less first base this year, but has a perfect 12 for 12 TiH Rate in 2024). However, Santana does rank behind both Minnesota greats, including Cory’s broadcast partner Justin Morneau, who put up a middling 55%. Does Cory mention it less when Glen Perkins or LaTroy Hawkins is in the booth instead? Perhaps Cory’s comments are meant to remind Justin how little he hustled in his career! (Justin, if you're reading this, this is also a joke. If Justin isn't reading this, though, screw him.) We do have to finally ask: is there any value in TiH%? Are you more likely to win a Gold Glove with a high TiH%? That might require a further study to link up the quality of first basemen and other defensive metrics with their actual performance. On the other hand, TiH could also be described as the ultimate eyewash. After all, Freddie Freeman is considered one of the best first basemen in the game, and he has one of the lowest TiH rates in the game. Watch Anthony Rizzo make the game's most frequent, fluid, flawless feeds to pitchers a handful of times, and you could convince me that that toss is an art form as worthy of praise as the hustle and assertiveness of Taking It Oneself. T1FkUTRfWGw0TUFRPT1fQjFBQ1UxZFFBd1VBWFZNQ1ZnQUFCVk5RQUFNRkFnY0FDbFJVQWxFTkJBUUdDUXBT.mp4 There's no reward for TiH, or for the pleasing parabola of a Rizzo flip—each way results in an out. But maybe it can tell us something a little about the stylistic choices of first base defense. If nothing else, it's a fun thing to file away, as a fan trying to get into closer contact with the game. So here’s to you, Cory! You (mostly) got it right about Carlos. And we’ll be watching TiH% throughout the season, and we hope you will keep up as well. View full article

A look behind the scenes at an unexpected delight during the Nationals Series, as a Twins relief pitcher makes an odd and wondrous gesture. Image courtesy of © Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports Keith Morrisroe has been part of the Nationals crew since 2022 but had never driven anyone. He’s one of five drivers who switch out days, waiting patiently for whoever from the bullpen might want a ride on their cart that day. “We pull up right outside the gate, and, if they hop in, we take them for a ride.” Morrisroe was just as surprised as anyone when Twins reliever Steven Okert jumped in during Wednesday’s 3-2 win over the Nationals as he came in relief for Simeon Woods Richardson. He had a plan to buy the uniform of whoever took the opportunity. “I told myself when I started, whoever my first rider was, I'm going to buy their jersey.” Of course, he did not expect the $5 tip—or the social media frenzy—that came his way after Okert reached out with the bill. “He hopped out, and, you know, he was the motion of handing me something. I was not expecting a tip and the dugout right there was laughing pretty good. I was kind of shocked, and, you know, I thought it was a fun, good hearted moment.” From all accounts, Okert made history with his tip. As noted by the Nationals PR, Okert has taken the bullpen cart every time during his Miami days. But this is the first time he—or any player— has ever offered a tip. According to Morrisroe, “The group chat [between the driving crew] were all pretty excited, so it seemed to be the first.” He’s already gone ahead and framed the bill, just like a restaurant or bar receiving its first dollar. The history of bullpen carts is a sad and lost art. Cleveland first debuted on in the 1950s, with other teams following suit. Perhaps most infamously was the M.S. Relief, a tugboat shaped one used by the Mariners for a season in the 1980s. But today, only the Nationals seem to have one in (not particularly) regular use. According to a report by the Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty, most pitchers find it might throw off their routine, or that they are not senior enough to participate in the fun. Not Okert, who got four outs in the close game between the Twins and the Nationals. As he told The Athletic's Dan Hayes, “I was carrying it the whole series waiting to get in. Got to use it.” In his performances at Nationals Park, Okert has given up nine hits—including two home runs—over 42 plate appearances with 12 strikeouts and three walks. His OBP is notably lower at Nationals Park than it is at every other stadium combined. Perhaps the cart does a little wonder. Rather than tip his pitches, he is simply a pitcher who tips. Morrisroe balances both the seriousness the pitchers might be facing in the moment with the entertainment for the fans. “We don’t speak to them most of the time. They’re in their zone.” At the same time, the gimmick provides a little extra. “We just want to be a part of the fun game day experience for, for all the fans and, and the players, and I think people got a good hearted story rom that moment, so I think, you who wouldn't want more of those? View full article

Desperate for innings, teams are transforming ace closers into starters. Should the Twins solve their rotation depth issues by moving their best bullpen arm? Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports Twins fans probably don’t remember much about Zack Littell. The cruise-ship loving pitcher began as a weak starter before becoming a reliable reliever in 2019 (though he posted a xERA of 5.51). During the 2020 season, his underwhelming stuff became too much for the playoff-bound team to keep and he was outrighted off the roster. Littell bounced around between the Giants, Rangers and Red Sox before making his home with Tampa in the middle of last year. And the Rays did what they do best. Littell was converted back from reliever to starter, throwing 87 innings with a 3.93 ERA. So far, he looks even better this season; over 27 innings, the righty has a 3.11 ERA and a top 20 FIP. Not bad for a literal mid-season DFA pick up. But the Rays are not unique. Converting bullpen arms into quality starters has become a bit of a trend for 2024. The Braves’ best starter is former White Sox ace Reynaldo Lopez. Michael King took a no hitter into the eighth for the Padres. Jordan Hicks is crushing for SF. Seth Lugo is building a Cy Young candidacy in Kansas City. Converted Starters IP ERA- FIP- Zack Littell (Rays) 27 91 76 Reynaldo Lopez (Braves) 25 18 71 Michael King (Padres) 30.2 107 144 Jordan Hicks (Giants) 28 41 99 Seth Lugo (Royals) 38 41 85 So that opens the question: could Durán join this crew? Cody Schoenmann speculated on the same topic in January, though there was no data to back up that these conversions would work. It’s hard to say how many innings each of these starters have in them, but now it does seem that this seems to be working. More so, the Twins now need innings and good ones. Anthony DeSclafani never made it to the mound; Louie Varland got pushed to the minors to fix his stuff. Simeon Woods Richardson has looked capable in the fifth slot, but the reinforcements behind him are scant. The Twins could always pick up a veteran for a minor league deal, but what about five strong innings from Jhoan Durán? Durán never got a real chance with the Twins organization as a starter. After coming over in the Eduardo Escobar trade, the lost minor league season in 2020 and an elbow strain in 2021 pushed the Twins to rethink a pitcher who had never topped 115 innings. He abandoned his changeup, relying entirely on his fastball, “splinker,” and curveball. A few things have changed in Durán’s profile since making the majors. He throws his now infamous splinker as much as his curveball, creating a three-pitch mix. That’s maybe not enough to go deep into games, but perhaps it’s enough to make it five innings and limit his need. After all, Durán has comfortably gone two innings plenty of times, including his elite performance in the Twins’ final playoff game. When Durán debuted in 2022, there was very little hope in the bullpen besides him. Now, the Twins have a bonafide army with Griffin Jax and Brock Stewart headlining the group that remains a top 5 bullpen (and top 2 in strikeouts). Durán would only push that group into elite territory, but right now the Twins need to be asking what they need more. Of course, this is a pipe dream. When asked about this possibility last year, Rocco Baldelli poured some cold water. “I daydream about him closing big games for us. I don't daydream about him starting.” And more than that, how can one want to get rid of the league’s most epic closer entrance It might be too late to convert Durán into a full-blown starter for 2024, especially with the Twins wanting to be careful with his injury as he returns. But unless the Twins have other plans to bolster their back end rotation, they might need to have a serious conversation going into 2025. What do you think? Should Durán become a starter? Sound off in the comments. View full article

Tommy John injuries have become more common as pitchers peruse velocity. As Pete Maki pushes the same for both starters and relievers, are the Twins are due to lose an arm? Beyond major betting scandals and uniforms ripping apart, one other story has dominated the start of the Major League Baseball season: pitching injuries. A recent slew of stories—from Ben Lindburgh, Lindsey Adler, and even an anonymous MLB pitcher—has followed from a number of star pitchers have gone down from elbow tears, including Garret Cole, Shane Bieber, and top Marlins prospect Eury Pérez. That’s on top of major pitchers out before the season began, including Shohei Ohtani, Sandy Alcantara, and Jacob deGrom. Tyler Glasnow discussed the issue on Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN. The issue has become part of a Cold War between owners and players. Tony Clark, head of the Major League Baseball Players Association, issued a statement blaming the new rule changes that were implemented without any player votes. MLB fired back noting that the mounds of research suggest other issues are more at play. Whatever the causes, Twins fans might be relieved to see that the list of injured pitchers has not included any of their top starters. Which begs the question: have the Twins found a way to improve their pitchers without sustaining injury? Or should we brace ourselves to see Pablo López or Bailey Ober walking off the mound grabbing their arm with a year long recovery timeline? For most Twins fans, they may scoff at the idea that the team has not been plagued with injuries. And since 2020, the Twins have had six pitchers with major injuries that essentially ended their season. But most of them come with an asterisk. Anthony Desclafani came over as damaged goods (and arguably as a necessary part of to make the Jorge Polanco trade happen). The same could be said of Tyler Mahle and Chris Paddack, who each clearly were due for surgery as soon as they arrived. One might ask why the Twins have acquired these pitchers who were due for injury, but arguably the Twins’ pitching development did not cause these issues. That leaves two notable injuries: Kenta Maeda and reliever José De León. After pitching to a Cy Young runner up in the shortened 2020 season, the former Toyo Carp saw weakened velocity throughout 2021 before requiring an internal brace repair after 21 starts. That said, Maeda was injury prone throughout his career and the Los Angeles Dodgers had in part designed his contract with such risk in mind. That only leaves De León, a reliever who pitched 17 1/3rd innings for Minnesota in 2023, who came to the team as a minor league free agent at the start of the season. While it was a frustrating injury, this was not the same as a top line starter. Part of the interest here is the fact that Twins pitching philosophy has significantly changed with Pete Maki becoming the full time pitching coach following the departure of Wes Johnson. The talk of the town in Spring Training in 2022 was the added velocity from every pitcher, which not only carried throughout last season but has continued since on both fastballs as well as their off speed pitches. Many of the top pitchers have visited Driveline, which others see as a culprit. FASTBALL 2021 2022 2023 2024 Pablo López 93.4 92.7 94.8 94.7 Joe Ryan 91.2 92 92.3 93.4 Bailey Ober 92.3 91.5 91.3 90.4 Louie Varland MiLB 92.4 92.8 93.3 Chris Paddack 94.8 93 95.5 94.6 Caleb Thielbar 91.3 92.8 93.1 N/A Griffix Jax MiLB 95.4 96.2 96.4 Jhoan Duran MiLB 100.8 101.8 N/A BREAKING 2021 2022 2023 2024 Pablo López 80.2 80.9 83.7 83.3 Joe Ryan 78.1 80.1 80.3 84.4 Bailey Ober 79.1 80.8 80.1 79.4 Louie Varland MiLB 83.3 83.9 84.6 Chris Paddack 78.7 77.3 83.5 83 Caleb Thielbar 77.5 77.2 78.4 N/A Griffix Jax MiLB 86.1 86.7 88.5 Jhoan Duran MiLB 88 87.7 N/A Blue refers to former Team While the causes of more pitcher injuries are myriad, velocity is seen as a top culprit. Pitchers—from high school to All Stars—are now almost entirely focused on velocity as a central goal. As one anonymous pitching coach told The Athletic, “Pitchers and analysts pursue velo. The pitchers that don’t do this retire. The ones that stay take on some injury risk to avoid working at Costco.” So what does that mean for the Twins’ staff? Last year, the staff avoided any major injuries; the most notable one was Joe Ryan’s groin strain. And while the bullpen is slightly depleted to begin the year, no one’s injury has hinted at likely heading for Tommy John. So perhaps Maki is doing things differently. In an article about López’s more effective and elite sweeper, the pitcher suggested it was more the grip than any other changes. “The seams are doing the work for you.” Ryan also worked over the offseason to change his grip and find more velocity. Others have suggested some warning signs, however. For Maki’s part, he has said in interviews that his goal is not to just go for high velocity only. "I think we are still a pitch to contact [organization]…The whole pitch to contact, and wanting misses, and wanting strikeouts, that coexists together for us.” But the Twins so far are acting as a strikeout team, ranking 1st in the majors for Ks/9 and third lowest in xFIP. Pitcher injuries are no fun, even when they happen to opponents. It's more fun to see the Twins crush Shane Bieber than not see him at all. But the bigger worry is whether there is a ticking time bomb. The Twins pitching and training staff should be carefully monitoring these arms. With very little depth this season, one Tommy John could cost the entire season. View full article

The Minnesota Twins began the season with a win and an ace start by Pablo Lopez, but the story of the game was the awe of a Royce Lewis dinger quickly followed by the tragedy of a potential IL stint. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet THU SAT SUN TUE WED TOT Alcala 0 0 0 0 0 0 Duarte 0 0 0 0 0 0 Funderburk 0 0 0 0 0 0 Jackson 0 0 0 0 0 0 Jax 18 0 0 0 0 18 Okert 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sands 0 0 0 0 0 0 Stewart 17 0 0 0 0 17 View full article

The Twins' rivals in the AL West provide both daunting rotations and line-ups as well as stories that just make us sad. Image courtesy of D. Ross Cameron-USA Today (photo of Rooker), Isaiah J. Downing-USA Today (photo of Trout), Troy Taormina-USA Today (photo of Alvarez), Jeffrey Becker-USA Today (photo of Seager), Mark J. Rebilas-USA Today (photo of Polanco) Houston Astros Baseball Prospectus PECOTA Projections: 95-67 FanGraphs Projections: 90-72 Since their (not-entirely-unexpected) arrival in 2017, the Houston Astros have remained a juggernaut for the AL West, led by veterans José Altuve and Alex Bregman alongside emerging stars like Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. Under owner Jim Crane, the team has embraced their villain status since the “banging scheme” details riled baseball, though few players from that era remain. If there is any question truly about the Astros, it might be how many years before the booing finally quells. The Astros’ biggest changes perhaps will come in the form of how the team adapts into a new era without manager Dusty Baker finally called it quits after 26 managed years in the league. In his place will be Joe Espada, who has managed Houston’s bench since 2018. Espada has claimed that he’ll wait to see his time develop before adapting into any one personality. That said, the team’s hyper-financialized model will finally turn a corner in the next few years. Their farm system now ranks 27th according to Keith Law, and many of their top players are beginning to hit their arbitration years. Altuve received his likely final payday with a $125 million five-year extension to end his Hall of Fame career as an Astro, though questions about his time at second base will perhaps quickly emerge. If the Astros want to keep any of their core together, it will have to come through money. Most of Houston’s rotation returns, though veterans Justin Verlander and Lance McCullers Jr. continue to battle injury and will arrive late. That means headliner Framber Valdez will need to bounce back while younger stars like Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, J.P. France, and José Urquidy continue to develop into regular rotation players. Baker’s exit also means finally a change beloved all-defense catcher Martín Maldonado and the entrance of Yainer Diaz to clean up. Given how little experience Diaz got behind the plate during Maldonado’s tenure, it might take time for the rookie catcher (as well as new veteran back up Victor Caratini) to learn how to command the staff. Houston’s bullpen will also see some turnover. With Kendall Graveman out for the season as well as Hector Neris and Phil Maton departing in free agency, Houston might not have the strength of its old days. Old friend Ryan Pressly has moved off the closer role to the 8th inning, now supported by All Star Josh Hader—coming to Houston on a five-year, $100 million deal. While the combination of Bryan Abreu, Pressly, and Hader might be the best in the league, Houston will also need to hope other players step up. Seattle Mariners Baseball Prospectus PECOTA Projections: 84-77 FanGraphs Projections: 85-77 “What did Jerry Dipoto do?” goes a jingle created by Michael Baumann. And as it is with every off season, the Seattle GM spent his days re-arranging a number of deck chairs of his roster in the hope of a handful of wins. Jerry got in trouble an early remark about winning only 54% of games over the next ten years. Trouble with the Mariners' now entirely owned cable RSN ROOT Sports limited any new spending, though more in terms of stagnation than cuts. As many question whether the Mariners’ first post season appearance in 2022 was just a fluke, Jerry spent the offseason unloading payroll while bringing in new materials. The headline is, of course, Twins veteran Jorge Polanco, who joins a line up made up of superstar Julio Rodriguez, Ty France, and Carl “Big Dumper” Raleigh. Replacing their offense production (Teoscar Hernandez went to Los Angeles; Eugenio Suarez traded to Arizona) is old friend Mitch Garver as DH and the return of Mitch Haniger in an odd bit of trading that sent Robbie Ray to San Francisco. If Rodriguez—who despite a disappointing first half went on an explosion to end up ranking 4th in AL MVP voting—returns in top form, this might be the best line up Seattle has had in years. Seattle’s arms remains their strength, of course. Last year saw two young stars in Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller make unexpected leaps into the rotation, which includes a gauntlet of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert. Many of the top names of the bullpen have departed (including Justin Topa over to the Twins), but Seattle has made a knack of bringing up folks from AAA to create an impenetrable wall of defense for late innings before closer Andrés Muñoz can come in to shut the whole thing down. Texas Rangers Baseball Prospectus PECOTA Projections: 86-76 FanGraphs Projections: 82-80 Like the Minnesota Twins, the Rangers spent much of their offseason—one that should have been all good bolstered by their first World Series title after 56 seasons—by worries about a bankruptcy issue with Bally Sports. The eventual settlement brought them about 85% of their money due for the year, but resulted in less spending one might do when the plan is to run back a title. Lacking World Series hero Jordan Montgomery, Nathan Eovaldi will take his spot as the front line man as the team desperately awaits the return of both Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom (plus Tyler Mahle). That will leave the other efforts to the likes of Jon Gray, Dane Dunning, and Michael Lorenzen to give enough innings to reach a bullpen. That pen is where Texas put most of its money this winter after signing David Robertson and Kirby Yates, hoping to give Jose Leclerc and Josh Sborz a bit less of a heavy load. The goal will of course remain to bop and bop hard. Texas handed out $500 million between Marcus Semien and Corey Seager in 2021, an early bet that paid off. Adolis Garcia, who became a legend throughout the playoff run, received a small but statured extension. More so, Texas should see ample time from two top prospects: dentist-turned-playoff-hero Evan Carter and the debut of Wyatt Langford, ranked #2 on most systems. That should leave a pitchers constantly exhausted as they navigate the line up. Los Angeles Angels Baseball Prospectus PECOTA Projections: 73-89 FanGraphs Projections: 78-84 The Twins visit Anaheim in April this year and hopefully can mostly enjoy a sunny vacation while the Los Angeles Angels remain trash fire. Owner Arte Moreno—embezzler? failure—had no interest in matching Shohei Ohtani’s reasonable asking price to remain an Angel for life. And this was after the team pushed their chips in last year while keeping Ohtani at the trade deadline, and now sit with the worst farm system in the major leagues and a fan base who might finally revolt. The Angels will spend the year betting on youth. Nolan Schanuel was drafted in June before making his major league debut in August. Zach Neto will play shortstop, with the team hoping his brief flash in the pan last year was no fluke. This year will also see a full season of catcher Logan O’Hoppe , whose brief power surge before an injury sidelined him all last year might have a chance to prove into a Mauer-esque talent. Pitching has continue to woe the Angels for what seems like a decade, but there is some talent in this bunch. Patrick Sandoval, Griffin Canning, and Reid Detmers could all be solid weekly options, and perhaps Tyler Anderson will make due on his post-Dodgers rebound contract. For what it’s worth, Angels GM Perry Minasian has made a number of interesting bullpen moves and essentially replaced the entire roster, adding Seattle’s Matt Moore, San Diego’s Luis Garcia, and Toronto’s Adam Cimber. The big question remains the addition of Rays breakout Robert Stephenson on a three-year, $33 million deal, but is currently dealing with shoulder pain. Supporting this roster is a new manager on deck in forever stalwart Ron Washington, coming off his role with the World Series winning Braves. While plans for an all star coaching staff (including old friend Torii Hunter) fell apart, Washington and crew will still have a chance to maybe find some treasures. The question most fans will be curious to follow is the fate of Mike Trout, who ruled out any future trade potential. As the once greatest player in baseball sees his star finally dimming, does Trout still have it in him to rise all tides? Or is he now cursed to remain the most unknown GOAT in the history of major league sports. Oakland Athletics Baseball Prospectus PECOTA Projections: 64-98 FanGraphs Projections: 73-89 If the Angels are a tire fire, the Athletics remain a black hole of despair. The biggest questions remain entirely those outside of the players’ control over exactly where they will play after this final year in the Coliseum and before the supposed debut of their “spherical armadillo” shaped stadium in Las Vegas not due until 2028. Will it be Sacramento? Salt Lake? Mars might be the best bet for finding new fans at this point. Given the revolt of fans, the A’s will likely play to empty crowds in Oakland throughout the season, as activist groups like the Last Dive Bar and the Oakland 68’s have turned their attention toward the new indie ball team the Oakland Ballers. Of course, the hate for the Athletics was never about the players, and while there are fewer bright spots than in previous iterations, the morbidly curious might see a team ready to begin the always shorter-than-expected rebuilds that have defined GM David Forst’s tenure since 2015. And there are certainly some bright spots among the gold and green, including the supernova explosion of former Twin outfielder Brent Rooker, who slashed .246/.329/.488 on his way to his first ever All Star appearance. Others like Zack Gelof and Seth Brown also show the potential of a new core as long as management does not trade them away as soon as they reach arbitration. Others may hope to see jumps from Shea Langeliers and speed demon Esteury Ruiz. A few free agents will make their home, including former podcaster Ross Stripling and Alex Wood. The other rotation piece include few potential breakouts in JP Sears and Joey Estes. And Oakland has their own Jhoan Duran in reliever Mason Miller. And perhaps in the best news this team could get, former Rockies broadcaster Jenny Cavnar will become the first ever female tv play-by-play commentator in baseball history. The question will unfortunately remain: is there anything Oakland can do to bring its fanbase back? Unless it involves a sale by John Fisher, highly unlikely. How do you think the 2024 season will play out in the AL West? Who will win the division? How many teams will make the playoffs? Who do you think poses the biggest threat to the Twins? Sound off in the comments. View full article

Oh nice find. I was looking at recent relievers across the league but didn't check any top closers. He also apparently famously got screwed in Arb (he asked for over $6 million and the Brewers famously cited his lack of saves, which is why he starter to refuse doing anything but close). I think probably between that group you can still estimate around $10 million unless everyone out performs this year.

While the Minnesota Twins' 2024 payroll remains disappointingly low, the team may be doing more than stashing and redirecting the money they'll receive via their one-year deal to return to Ball Sports North. They might also be planning around inflated costs in 2025. Image courtesy of © Jonah Hinebaugh/Naples Daily News/USA Today Network-Florida / USA TODAY NETWORK Following what felt like the dawn of a new era for Twins baseball, many fans have felt that hype shot through the heart with disappointment, as the team has decreased its payroll in response to broadcast woes. However, as President Dave St. Peter made clear to Evan Drellich in The Athletic, the choice to make that change was only partially due to that uncertainty. I am not here to run flack for the organization. However, there are two financial cliffs awaiting the Twins in 2025 that are interesting to look at. The first is that the broadcast nightmare is not over. With a one-year deal with Bally, the Twins will be back on the market next year, with more or less the same set of available partners. Even if Rob Manfred creates an MLB streaming product to fans without blackouts, it will likely fall short of generating the significant cable money the Twins earned in working with Diamond Sports Holdings--barring some kind of miraculous collaboration with several big-market teams, who are not contracted with DSH or Bally and don't have much incentive to join the cabal. The other issue is more interesting: The Twins will, by nature, have to run a highly inflated payroll in 2025 due to their current contracts and players entering arbitration. If the Twins simply ran back the exact same team next year, they will be adding $20 to $25 million in payroll over what they currently have. Let’s break down the details Free Agent Contracts with Increases: Carlos Correa, Pablo López, Chris Paddack, Randy Dobnak Estimated Increase: $23.25 Million Although the Twins have scored some of the most team-friendly extensions in the game, they have also designed them in a way where some years pay better than others. Next year is when some real money will be due. Correa’s gargantuan contract hits it peak, with a $4-million increase to $37.5 million. López will finally get to the meaty part of his extension, with a $13.5 million increase to $21.75 million (still a team-friendly deal compared to the open market, where Sonny Gray will be earning $25 million). Paddack signed an extension following his Tommy John surgery that essentially re-designed his arbitration years. Whether or not he becomes a reliable starter, the Twins have him for another year at $7.5 million--a $5-million increase from his 2024 salary. Dobnak’s deal also sees a guaranteed increase of $750,000 next year. Arbitration 1 Players: Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Griffin Jax, Jhoan Durán, Royce Lewis, Trevor Larnach Estimated Increase: $10 Million The Twins have done well building a deep, team-controlled core. But that core is soon to be due real money, as they begin their arbitration years. Although arbitration is based on previous year performance, there are certain bands of money where we can at least put generalized estimates on what might be needed for 2025. If Ryan and Ober turn into mid-rotation starters, they will each see increases of at least $2 million each. The same could be said for a batting phenom like Lewis. Durán and Jax will be more difficult to estimate, but both are likely due an extra million or more. Larnach is the odd man out, and will be fighting both in Spring Training and all season to retain his roster spot. Arbitration 2 and 3 Players: Ryan Jeffers, Willi Castro, Josh Staumont, Justin Topa, Steven Okert, Alex Kirilloff Estimated Increase: $9 Million This group of players have less chance of breaking the bank, though Jeffers is a notable name here. Just this season, Dodgers catcher Will Smith set a new record for Arbitration 2 as a catcher, with $8.55 Million. Jeffers likely won’t match the All-Star, but another good season should net him a few extra million. Castro is set for $3.3 million this season, and will probably only earn a small increase for 2025. All the bullpen arms remain question marks in how much they might see, or whether the Twins might keep them. Like Larnach, Kirilloff will need to prove himself viable on the field before other batters from the minors may come knocking for his spot. Option Deals: Kyle Farmer, Jay Jackson, Jorge Alcalá Estimated Increase: $2.61 Million The Twins also have three options on their various spare parts. In order to avoid a messy arbitration, the organization and Farmer agreed on adding a mutual option for 2025 that would bump his salary a small but notable $200,000. With the arrival of Brooks Lee, the Twins may once again try and find a trade market for the backup infielder. Jackson also arrives in Minnesota with a team option at $3 million for next year. If he turns out to be as good as advertised, the Twins may add the additional $1.7 million to keep a strong arm. Finally, Alcalá and the Twins agreed to a mutual option for $1.5 million. Alcalá will likely break his injury track record to get the Twins to keep that money on the table. Money Coming Off the Books: Max Kepler, Carlos Santana, Anthony DeSclafani, Caleb Thielbar Estimated Decrease: $22.25 Million Of course, players reaching free agency means the Twins will shed some payroll, as well. Kepler’s money remains the most significant, as the team will get out from under his team-friendly $10 million contract. The others are quite small, but add up in the aggregate. However, this all remains an issue for the Twins: they will be losing a right fielder, a first baseman, a starting pitcher, and a solid left-handed reliever. The team will almost certainly spend all season evaluating their prospects, to see if any of them can act as legitimate replacements. But if there are holes, they will certainly have to take some of this money and convert it into new spending to remain competitive. Although things could shake out in several ways, it is almost certain that the Twins will see an additional $20 million added to their payroll next season, and that's before making any external additions. That's why, despite their unexpectedly non-calamitous short-term TV deal, they've been reluctant to commit to a free agent who could end up being on the books for another $20 million in 2025. It hardly excuses the team for pocketing the money, but the Twins will need to think creatively as this young team ages into big money--whether they like it or not. View full article