bird

The hardest thing to get about Simeon Wood-Richardson is his name. The easiest thing is to see a guy with stuff like Jordan Balazovic, but with a big, friendly smile for the world. Another easy thing is watching his slow curve bend about a foot, just catching the zone at the end of a pretty little trip through the air. You could just about see the catcher and the ump both smiling at how pretty it was. Then he comes back with that snapping fastball, low in the zone. This guy is a keeper. I want him on my team. 
Not sure how much more polish he needs after dominating the Red Sox for a couple late innings Monday. 
One challenge the team will face is figuring out a good nickname. Sim? Woo? Rich? SWR? Not sure what fits, it might not even be part of his name. He seems like the kind of relaxed, friendly guy you wish was your neighbor. I feel like calling him Frank, or Chuck. 
Anyway, his talent looks very real to me, and it doesn't look like just a couple snuff-out innings. This dude can really pitch. 

Too many Larry and Sue Capital One commercials, I guess.
But I've been thinking: now that Opening Day is just eight days away, what's the one word that best describes your perspective going into the season? 
I'm writing as an eternal optimist, but I'm going to go with "intrigued." 
I'm intrigued to see what lineup combinations Rocco will try, especially at the top of the order. And I say "combinations," because there will be many. Last year, there were 149 different lineups in 162 games. Part of that was injuries, but flexibility in roster and lineup construction is a hallmark of this administration.  I'm intrigued to see what it's like to have Byron and Carlos hitting back-to-back, at least on occasion. I've been wondering, but haven't seen anyone note whether this is the first time that the top two players in a single draft ended up as teammates.  I'm intrigued to see exactly how tiny the Bermuda triangle between Buxton, Correa and Polanco is going to be.  And while I'm at it with the Byron and Carlos lovefest, I'm intrigued to know what the laundry bill is going to for cleaning the shorts of opposing pitchers if those two get on a roll at the same time, especially if Sano happens to hit one of his hot streaks at the same time. Not sure I REALLY want to know that answer, but sorta intrigued in a macabre sort of way. I'm intrigued to see if either Bundy or Archer is able to reclaim their prior highlights. I'm intrigued of what this notion of a Gray-Bundy-Archer-Ryan-Ober rotation might actually pull off.  I'm also intrigued at what looks a little like a hodgepodge of relievers, and how there seems to be different skill sets represented, and how they could conceivably turn into a unit where the whole is significantly better than the sum of its parts.  I'm intrigued to see how Rocco works with that 10-man bullpen. Some (many) of his decisions look wacko on the service (and get lambasted in the Game Thread), but my experience has been that very often when I drill down to consider the rest patterns, pitcher availability, the likelihood of actually winning the game at hand, and how things set up for the next day, there is almost always a logical progression. Doesn't always work, but it's logical -- that's the nature of the beast. And that's why I'm sitting at home on the Game Thread instead of being in the dugout. I'm especially intrigued with how Rocco meshes that bullpen with a starting rotation in which day-to-day consistency may be severely lacking. Each of the five starters (make that 10-12 by year-end) have the potential to be really good on a given day. Or really bad. As the self-proclaimed inventor of the bullpenning strategy after riding a three-man rotation and incredible cards from Mike Timlin and a bunch of guys I can't remember to the 1992 Northern Indiana Offseason Strat-O-Matic regular-season championship, I think it will be fun to see the mixing and matching. I'm intrigued to see how long the leash is going to be on pitchers, both starter and reliever, and which order other guys come up, both in terms of 26/28-man roster and 40-man roster decisions. That includes the guys on minor league contracts that will have to wait their turn. I'm intrigued to see if Sanchez can simultaneously regain his power stroke and become something more reliable than a cement block at stopping pitches.  I'm intrigued by Larnach. At my one and only College World Series game, about two weeks after he was drafted, he jacked a long home run, and I thought, "Oh, my -- this could be fun." While I'm at it, I'm intrigued by Kirilloff too. I'm intrigued to see how Lewis bounces back. I'm intrigued to see if Miranda is indeed legit and whether he's able to force the issue. And Winder and Enlow, etc. See three bullets previous. I'm intrigued to find out the taste of Killebrew Root Beer, and I'm looking forward to trying it at a Saints game in a couple weeks. I'm intrigued to see if, and when, they pull off a trade for a pitcher. This front office works under the radar, and I can easily imagine waking up some morning to a May Day present (and I don't mean just Trevor) of somebody's No. 2 starter that they got for Jermaine Palacios. Or a second present, when they re-sign Palacios after he's been DFAed by his new team and then trade him again! Okay, probably not Palacios, but I wouldn't be surprised if they pull something off when we least expect it, at the cost of only a lottery pick. I'm intrigued by how many of us will be in Cooperstown on July 17 to see Tony O and Kitty Kaat.  I'm intrigued by whether they'll go with the powder blue or the Dairy Queen red in Game 1 vs. the Dodgers in October. (See line 3 and the statement about being an optimist.) I'm intrigued by the forgotten man, and whether Kenta Maeda might sneak back for some late-season usage, either with a few starts or in the bullpen, where he's had some past success. (See previous bullet for a hint of what I'm talking about.) I'm intrigued to find out what a Godoy is. And whether we'll be waiting for him. So, "intrigued" is my word. What are you intrigued about?
And what's the word that captures where you're at with this team?

As a Twins fan, I have seen several different approaches to drafting and developing pitching. We saw the pitch to contact philosophy at work for a long time. We saw the ill-fated drafting college fireball relievers and trying to develop them as starters, which failed (although we did get a nice relief pitcher in Tyler Duffey out of it). However, the current philosophy seems to be drafting college pitchers who have good peripheral numbers, high spin rates, or some other trait that separates them from the rest of the talent pool.
This should not come as a complete shock considering where Derek Falvey came from. The Cleveland Indians have been doing this for a long time and it has helped them develop a nice pipeline of pitching talent that has allowed them to compete for the AL Central seemingly every year. Shane Bieber and Aaron Civale are two very recent examples of what I am talking about (Mike Clevinger was acquired in a trade from the Angels). Bieber and Civale were not top round picks (Bieber was a 4th rounder, Civale a third rounder). They were college arms that got to the majors within a couple of years.
Falvey has implemented a similar strategy since he has come to the Twins. When looking at the Twins system, there are several college pitchers who could be making their debuts within the next few years. A few names that come to mind are Cole Sands, Josh Winder, Chris Vallimont (received in a trade, but obviously a guy the Twins targeted), Matt Canterino, and a few others. Will all these names become successful starting pitchers for the Twins organization? Almost definitely not. However, these are all pitchers who are advancing relatively quickly through the minor leagues and have experienced a fair amount of success thus far.
Personally, I am a huge fan of this strategy. The MLB draft is an absolute crap shoot, but there is a lot less volatility when it comes to drafting college players, specifically pitchers. High school pitchers, unless they are in a warm-weather state and play ball all summer, do not pitch as many innings in a given year than a college pitcher. There are also innings limits placed on the high school pitchers. While there is a lot less tread on the pitcher’s arm, there is also much less experience and the unknown quantity of how that player’s body will handle the increased workload. The quality of competition in high school is obviously worse than college competition. High school pitchers are also being drafted on projection more than college pitchers. The organization, when drafting a high school pitcher who is 6’5, 180 lbs. and tops out at 92mph, are making an educated guess that the pitcher will get stronger and grow into their body, all while gaining strength and adding velocity. All of this while teaching them quality secondary pitches and teaching kids, who have been able to get by in high school on pure talent, how to pitch.
With a college pitcher, they have had to develop a little more of a plan on how to attack hitters. They have also grown into their bodies (at least for the most part), so they are more of a known commodity. They have had an increased workload, with some pitchers pitching close to 100 innings or more in a college season (Matt Canterino was just under 100 innings pitched for each season from 2017-2019). While there may not be as much projection as one of the high school pitchers we were discussing, the college pitchers are further along in the process of pitching in in an MLB game. Inherently, these college pitchers are more major league ready and have lower floors, even if they may not have as high of ceilings as a high school pitcher.
For a small market organization like the Twins, this is essential for a few reasons. It keeps the Twins from re-signing pitchers who are viable starting pitchers but are not overall difference makers. For instance, let us look at the case of Nick Blackburn. Nick Blackburn was the epitome of a league average pitcher. The Twins bought out a good portion of his arbitration years early because the Twins had a hard time developing homegrown pitchers and because there were few other pitchers coming up the pipeline. The Twins do not have an infinite amount of money to play with, so moves like this are more costly to the Twins than they are the Yankees or the Dodgers.
By having a system for drafting college pitchers that rise quickly through the ranks, it also keeps the Twins from signing the Kyle Gibsons of the world for 10 million dollars a year. As much as I like Kyle Gibson, he has a career WAR of less than 10. He is a league average starting pitcher who is going into his age 32 season. This is not a guy a team like the Twins wants to resign for 10 million a year. The Twins did not feel the need to match or exceed the Rangers deal. While it was helpful to sign Homer Bailey to a one-year deal, Chacin to a minor league deal, the Maeda trade, etc., the Twins can also get potentially similar production for a much cheaper price from Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe. If you are going to get league average or slightly above league average pitching, at least make sure you are paying those pitchers the league minimum and not paying eight figure salaries for the privilege.
The Twins also seem to target college pitchers that fit their prototype or have not reached their full potential. Cole Sands is a guy that was hurt some in college and may have a little more to give. Randy Dobnak was targeted more for his mound presence (information gleaned from a wonderful article in the Athletic about how he became a Twin by Aaron Gleeman) but added a one seam fastball and rose through the ranks in Matt Garza-style fashion. Chris Vallimont was a small college prospect the Twins targeted in the Sergio Romo trade. The Twins do not target college guys they think are going to be back-end starters only. They target college pitchers that they think they can get as much out of as they can. While this strategy will garner the Twins plenty of back-end of the rotation and relievers (Cody Stashak), they will also potentially get some front end starting pitching as well. Nobody thought Shane Bieber was going to be an absolute stud when he was drafted. If they did, someone would have picked him before the 4th round. But this strategy will bring about some front-end starting talent.
This also does not mean I think the Twins should completely abandon drafting high school pitchers. Arguably the Twins top 4 starting pitching prospects (Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic, Blayne Enlow, and Lewis Thorpe) never pitched in college. Jose Berrios did not pitch in college. However, for every Jose Berrios, there seem to be three or four prospects that do not pan out for one reason or another (Landon Leach, Hudson Boyd, Kohl Stewart, Stephen Gonsalves, Dan Serafini, etc.). College pitchers are not immune from this (Alex Wimmers, Matt Bashore, Adam Johnson, etc.), but there will always be less volatility in drafting college pitchers, this making them more valuable in my eyes for a team like the Twins.

In the spring of 2018 the Twins traded Luis Gil for Jake Cave. At the time of the trade Luis Gil had been in the Twin organization since 2015. He had thrown 65 innings over those three years with 73 strike outs and 46 walks. He did not pitch due to a shoulder injury in 2016 and had yet to pitch in rookie ball. He did not make Seth Stoh's 2018 prospect handbook. He did have a big fastball.
 
In July of that season the Twins traded Fernando Rodney for Dakota Chalmers. Chalmers was injured at the time of the trade. He had been in the Yankee organization since 2015. He had thrown 121 innings over those years with 137 strikeouts and 91 walks. He would not pitch due to Tommy John surgery in 2018 and had yet to pitch above Low A.
 
They have some similarities.
They both had injuries that caused them to lose a season.
They both had big strike out and walk numbers early on.
They both needed to be put on the 40 man roster this off season and start their options clock.

Keith Law ranked Luis Gil as the Yankees 14th prospect writing...
 
He was ranked 5th in the MLB pipeline and 10th by Fangraphs.
 
Keith Law ranked Dakota Chalmers as the 19th best prospect writing...
 
He was ranked 23rd in the MLB pipeline and unranked by Fangraphs.
 
Here is a recent article on Chalmers from Baseball America following his successful AFL season.
 
Both have significant command issues as shown. Both look to be relievers. Luis Gil will be 22 this year and likely needs to start in High A where he has only three games of experience. He has three options to figure out the strike zone and gain experience at the higher levels. Dakota Chalmers is 23. He will likely start in AA. He also has three options to gain command of his pitches.
 
The Twins acquired Jake Cave for Luis Gil. He has given the 2.3 fWAR as their 4th outfielder in two seasons. The Twins have 4 more seasons of control.
 
The Twins traded Fernando Rodney to acquire Dakota Chalmers. They gave up control through 2019. Rodney netted -0.1 fWAR for the A's before he was released and then part of the Nationals World Series team (0.5 fWAR).
 
Would you trade Chalmers for Gil today?
 
Chalmers is closer. He might help in the pen this year if the Twins went that direction with him. Gil will likely start the year in high A and still be given the chance to be a starter. His value to the Yankees would be to show better control in the first half as a starter and then moving him at the deadline. Gil is further away with a history of shoulder trouble. Any injury set back and it is hard to imagine that he will be ready before his options run out. I will be interested in where they both start and whether Chalmers is in the pen or rotation.
 
I would probably trade Chalmers for Gil. I like the upside of that arm and the possibility of having that trade piece at the deadline. Chalmers may be ready to help this year though. I see them both in a similar place as pitchers with a history of arm trouble, swing and miss stuff and command issues. They both need spots on the 40. In the moments when I regret the trade of Gil for Cave I need to remember appreciating the acquiring Chalmers for Rodney.

Welcome to Twinternationals! This is a space for Twins fans from different countries to read about their team in their native language. This section is run by Venezuelan Mariana Guzmán (@TwinsLatinos) and Brazilian Thiéres Rabelo (@TwinsBrasil).
 
On this blog, we’re going to write articles in Spanish and Portuguese, our native languages. Our goal is to spread the Minnesota Twins popularity to a much greater audience. American sports have grown each day more popular in South America and possibly all over the world, so we want to take advantage of that. We love the Twins this much!
 
If you are a fellow foreigner that roots for the Twins, feel free to comment and interact with us here and also on our Twitter accounts. If you are from a country that doesn’t speak those two languages and you would like to be a contributor to this blog as well, please let us know. Our door is open!
 
We hope you enjoy our work!
¡Bienvenidos!
Bem-vindos!

Hello all. My name, as you could see from the byline, is Lucas Seehafer and I am a Doctor of Physical Therapy and strength and conditioning specialist working in the greater Minneapolis-St. Paul area. I've been a fan of the Twins since the early 2000's and figured the Twins Daily community may enjoy some insight into the field of sports rehabilitation and performance. If this is the type of content you enjoy, I can be found on Twitter at @sportkinematics and many other sites, including A Wolf Among Wolves, The Step Back, and (soon) Forbes, where I cover athlete health and performance.
 
In what can only be seen as encouraging news, Minnesota Twins centerfielder has been cleared to begin swinging again, according to The Minneapolis Star Tribunes' Phil Miller.
 
Miller reports, "[buxton] will be limited to hitting off a tee or doing other basic drills while his shoulder gains strength, but the Twins expect Buxton to progress to hitting off a pitching machine by early next month. He could be ready to hit live pitching when the Twins hold their first full-squad workout on Feb. 17."
 
Buxton has not been able to swing since undergoing surgery in early September to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder, which he originally injured after crashing into the centerfield wall.
 
The labrum is a ring of cartilage found in the shoulder - also known as the glenohumeral joint - that serves to deepen the socket; the labrum improves the stability of the shoulder by increasing the surface contact area between the bones of the shoulder - the humerus and the scapula - as well as by creating a vacuum that keeps the head of the humerus in contact with the socket of the scapula.
 
The labrum is often torn in one of two areas: the superior - or top - aspect or the anteroinferior - or bottom front - aspect.
 
The first kind of tear is known as a SLAP lesion; SLAP is an acronym for superior labrum anterior to posterior. This type of labrum tear is commonly seen in the dominant shoulder of overhead athletes as the primary mechanism of injury is repeated, forceful throwing.
 
The second kind of labral tear is known as a Bankart lesion and these are most frequently seen after an anteroinferior dislocation of the shoulder, the most common type of shoulder dislocation. It is likely that Buxton suffered a Bankart tear as his injury was originally - and erroneously - reported to be a partial separation; a separation of the shoulder involves the acromioclavicular joint, whereas a dislocation involves the glenohumeral joint.
 
Overhead athletes are usually cleared to return to higher-level, sport-specific activities by about four months post-Bankart repair, regardless of which shoulder, their dominant or non-dominant, was operated on; Buxton is almost exactly four months post-op.
 
The reason for this is pretty simple: the repaired labrum needs to be protected as much as possible while it is healing and the strength of the rotator cuff - the group of four muscles near the shoulder that assist the labrum in stabilizing the shoulder, amongst other things - needs to be sufficiently built up.
 
Throwing a baseball places a great amount of stress on the labrum of the dominant arm and, depending on the players handedness while batting, so does swinging (see the main image of this article).
 
All of this is to say that Buxton is right on track in his recovery process, which is good news for the Twins and Twins fans alike. Buxton will be brought along further in his recover program as his rotator cuff strengthens further and the Twins along with Buxton are able to determine how increasing the intensity of his workouts impacts his shoulder. As Miller states, barring any setbacks, Buxton should be able to progress to swinging at full-speed by mid-February and partake in game action during Spring Training or, at the very least, the beginning of the regular season.

The Twins bullpen was mostly great in 2019 as they finished with the third best WAR in baseball, per Fangraphs. They had the best second half reliever WAR and watched Tyler Duffey and Trevor May become legitimate weapons along with the great Taylor Rogers.
 
Starting pitching will be the main focus this offseason, and rightly so. Trade deadline acquisition Sergio Romo is the only impending free agent from the bullpen. One of the other names circling at the deadline was left-hander Jake Diekman. A 32-year-old journeyman, Diekman started his career with the Phillies but found his most success in Arlington. Diekman posted a 3.18 ERA in four seasons with the Rangers, striking out 10.1 per nine and allowing just nine home runs in 124 1/3 innings.
 
The Rangers moved on from Diekman before the deadline in 2018, trading him to Arizona for minor league pitcher Wei-Chieh Huang. Diekman finished the year horribly with the D-Backs, allowing 12 runs in 14 1/3 innings. Diekman entered free agency as a buy-low option and the Royals inked him to a 1-year, $2.75 million contract with a mutual option for 2020.
 
Diekman responded to the show-me contract by going 0-6 with a 4.75 ERA in 41 2/3 innings with Kansas City. Some of that is due to the dumpster fire that is the Royals defense as his FIP was a stronger 3.36. The Royals elected to move him to Oakland before the 2019 deadline for two minor league prospects.
 
Diekman allowed 10 runs in 20 1/3 innings with the A's, walking 16 and striking out 21. Oakland elected not to pick up his option, per Melissa Lockard of the Athletic:
 

 
Now Diekman enters free agency once again as a buy-low option. Diekman made changes in 2019 that should entice the Twins to fill their left-handed reliever void. For one, he ditched his sinker and relied heavily on an elite slider, throwing it 46.1% of the time in 2019:
 


 
As can be seen on the graph, Diekman relied on the slider and four-seam fastball. His average fastball velocity is 95.8 MPH, a number that should be salivating for Minnesota. The two-pitch combo helped generate 12.2 strikeouts per nine, Diekman's most since 2014. His slider generated a 45% whiff rate with an expected .176/.257/.246 (.503) line from opposing hitters. The Twins are accustomed to pitchers with devastating sliders and they seem to target them:
 

 
Walks are clearly Diekman's biggest problem, as he has allowed a whopping 5.0 BB/9 in his career. Minnesota's pitching coach Wes Johnson cut 121 walks from the Twins in 2018, catapulting them from the 7th worst to 6th best in allowing free passes.
 
Considering his recent struggles and age, Diekman figures to get a one or maybe two year deal at best. The Twins have the luxury of taking this risk, and a $4-5 million investment in Diekman makes all the sense in the world. If anyone can tap into the seemingly lost potential, it is the Twins. Go get him Falvine!
 
Please comment what you think.
 
Thanks for reading! Go Twins!

Overall, it's not hard to be excited about the Twins in 2020 given a 101 win season in 2019. The ending certainly wasn't ideal, but 2019 showed us that our window is open and it should be for a few years. Cleveland remains the only real competition in the central. Chicago is up and coming, but they are likely another year or two away before they can have a realistic shot of competing. KC and Detroit are dumpster fires right now. So with that in mind, it's up to Falvey and Levine to construct a roster that can not only win the central but advance deep into the post season.
 
There's no question that starting pitching is our biggest need, and if I were running the team, this is where I would focus if I were them, but we need to start by trimming and expanding the roster in advance of the Rule V draft. The Twins already made the easiest of moves by picking up Nelson Cruz's option, but it gets a bit tougher from here: This is our current 40 man roster. The following players are free agents: Gibson, Odorizzi, Schoop, Romo, and Castro. That leaves us at 36 before changes are made. I'd DFA/nontender/trade if someone wants to give up something for the following as well: Sam Dyson, Kohl Stewart, Ronald Torreyes, Ryan Lamarre, Trevor Hildenberger, and Ian Miller. I would also not pick up Perez's option. That brings us down to 28 guys on the roster going into winter meetings. Buxton and Poppen will most definitely return, so that moves us up to 30. CJ Cron is a bit of a wild card here. His play may not be worth the money spent on tendering him, but there's no replacement waiting in the wings just yet (more on him in a bit, but I haven't removed his spot). So as it stands right now, we need the following (several starting pitchers, a backup catcher, an 2B (though there's a replacement in house), possibly a 1B, and if possible another shut down reliever). Other than starting pitching help, this team is in pretty good shape...
 
So on that note, I'm going to start by tendering Odorizzi a QO, with the clear desire to sign him to a 3 year deal. I'm going to guestimate that at 3/45 to make it work, as the 17M QO is probably the starting point to a negotiation. Jake was very good for us this year, but I'm not sure he's good enough for teams to surrender a pick and pay him 50+M on a multi-year deal. That brings the roster to 31. With Odorizzi at 17M, our current payroll sits at 48M. I'm going to tender the following candidates with a note that I'd be willing to extend any extension candidate willing to sign a reasonable deal. Some players won't sign them (Buxton for sure as his value is low due to health), but I suspect a couple guys likely sign a longer term contract.
Ehire Adrianza – $1.9MM
Trevor May – $2.1MM (extension candidate)
Eddie Rosario – $8.9MM (I'd stay year to year here, I could see trading him if a better FA option was available, but I'm most likely tendering him)
Miguel Sano – $5.9MM (extension candidate)
Byron Buxton – $2.9MM (extension candidate)
Taylor Rogers – $3.9MM (extension candidate)
Tyler Duffey – $1.1MM (extension candidate)
Jose Berrios – $5.4MM (extension candidate)

That's an additional 32.1M. Add Garver in there as he's not going anywhere, but his total is about .5M. That leaves payroll at roughly 81M without Cron. Cron's arb estimate is around 7.7M, which isn't terrible for a .780 OPS. He's roughly an average bat at 1B. The problem with him though is that there aren't ML ready options to take his place... not now at least. Rooker, Raley and Weil could use more seasoning, and Kirilloff is also questionable at this point. Next year at this time, one of those guys will hopefully be knocking at the door or perhaps even had some success at the major league level, but I'm not sure there should be a plan to count on a rookie to perform. Surveying the FA market, you have a couple options available. Josh Donaldson would likely be my primary target, as he could also play 3B giving Baldelli some flexibility with Sano/Garver at 1B on occasion as well. I doubt he comes cheap, and certainly not cheaper than Cron. He's likely going to get something similar to his salary last season and quite possibly a multi-year deal, so I'd guess around 20M. Zimmerman, Rizzo, and Thames all have club options available, and to be honest there really isn't much in terms of sure fire help out there. I don't think trading for a 1B makes any sense at all unless there's someone who is essentially on the last year of his deal and performing. In all, I think tendering Cron is the right answer here unless they know they can get Donaldson... and I doubt that. So I tender him at 7.7M bringing our payroll up to roughly 89M.
 
I'm not quite sure who all needs protecting and exposing. I'm using roster resource and protecting anyone that has R5 or Dec 19 as their status if their play warrants it. That said, I know this tool isn't completely accurate, so hopefully I haven't missed anyone. I see 10 names that warrant discussion. Let's start with the easy ones:
 
Candidates:
Griffin Jax (protect)
Luke Raley (protect)
Jake Reed (expose. He was not good last year)
Zander Wiel (expose. He was not good last year)

It gets a bit more difficult from here.
Travis Blankenhorn - He will likely get a crack at AAA in his age 23 season. He had a .785 OPS in AA, and really does seem to be turning a corner. Those numbers are nothing special, but question at hand is can he stick on a ML roster. I don't think it's worth the risk. I protect him.
Jhoan Duran - Duran likely starts in AA in his age 22 season, though he could also be promoted as he did spent some time there. He does a fantastic job keeping the ball in the park. His walk rate is acceptable and he doesn't give a lot of hits. He's kept his K rate around 10/9 IP for the last 2 seasons. I protect him.
Dakota Chalmers - Chalmers is a sleeper. I could see a bad team poaching him and stashing him with their extra spot as he will be 23 next season. The MLB roster size expands to 26 in 2020, and I think bad teams will use that to grab players like Chalmers with upside who may be exposed. The Twins have a few of them and ultimately I think someone gets left off. Chalmers is posting some sexy strike out numbers striking out 48 in 34 innings of relief work. He's also very stingy with the long ball. His walk rate though is scary as he gave 23 free passes. Bottom line for Chalmers is that right now, he won't do well on a major league roster. His AFL performance to date has not changed my view of this. I'm going to expose him.
Tom Hackimer - Hackimer pitched pretty well in his age 25 season in AA. He's one that could possibly stick in a mop up role in MLB. I lean towards not protecting him as well given his age. He got the strikeouts this season, his walk rate was a bit high at just over 4 per 9 innings but overall had a pretty good season between high A and AA. He likely starts in AA or AAA, but I'm going to expose him.
Jovani Moran - Moran is a similar pitcher to Chalmers if you look at the numbers. He gets lots of strikeouts and gives up too many free passes though he tends to be prone to the long ball. He will also be 23 next season. He's another one risking losing, but I think I expose him.
Tyler Wells - Wells is the hardest one. He was absolutely money in the minors but TJS derailed his 2019 season before it started. He will be rehabbing and should be able to pitch most of the year. I think the upside is too good to risk this, so I keep him.

That leaves us with 5 additions. Our roster now sits at 36. We need to figure out at least 2 starting pitchers, a backup C, and ideally a shutdown RP. We're also sitting on a couple individuals (Harper, Poppen, and Gonsalves) that I'd like to keep but could be set free in the event a better opportunity comes along through cost cutting or trade.
 
Falvey and Levine stated they weren't afraid to blow up the payroll when the windows is open, so now it's time to see if they will put the Pohlad's money to the test. They need pitching help badly, and having someone that can sit in front of Odorizzi and Berrios is a must in my opinion. Sign Gerrit Cole or Steven Strassburg (if he opts out) to a 5 or 6 year deal at 30M/season. That's probably what it will take to get either one of them. Feasibly, they could get them both and still have payroll sitting south of 150M, but I'm guessing that won't happen as much as I'd like and there are other needs I'd rather address... But they have to go big here, even if that means out bidding the competition by a significant margin. That moves payroll to $119M and gives us a pretty nice starting trio in Cole, Berrios, and Odorizzi. I'm guessing there's a QO attached here too for Cole at least, and I sacrifice the pick.
 
They still need 2 more pitchers. I'm fine letting Dobnak, Thorpe, Gonsalves, and Smeltzer compete for one of the spots. Most of these guys did well enough that I'm not losing sleep over the role. It's Dobnak's to lose at this point, but he earned it in limited looks. The reality is that unless there's a trade in the works that involves sending one or two of these guys off as part of a deal for a more established option such as say Mike Minor, I think this spot is going to go to pre-arb guys. That's another 500k on the payroll. Note that I didn't mention Graterol. I'm assuming he's going to remain as a starter, but that also means he's capped at about 120 innings. He could be this guy as well, but I think he could pair well with Michael Pineda if they bring him back... which brings me to my next FA target:
 
There are a few names I'd probably target here, they will have varying costs/years attached to them: Bumgardner, Wheeler, and Pineda would likely be my top 3. I'm personally not sold on Ryu from the Dodgers, but if my analytics guys liked him, then perhaps he's an option as well. Pineda actually pairs well with Graterol in that he can be stretched out and be the 5th starter in April/May and switch more to long relief/spot starting as the season wears on and Pineda returns from his suspension. That would keep Graterol's innings around 120 for the year (baring injury of course, which with Graterol is not low risk). Pineda would have been a QO option had he not been suspended. With roughly 40 days left on his suspension and of course the risk that he gets suspended again for longer, he's likely going to sign for much less than that. I'd offer him a 1/7 make good deal unless of course there's an unexpected price drop for the other guys on this list. That also means Graterol is on the 26 man, so that's another 500k to add to the payroll. If one of these other big names sign, I'm likely going to give Graterol a late start to his season in AAA and stretch him out to be the spot starter for the inevitable pitching injury. Once he gets closer to his 120, I'd shift him to the MLB pen during the stretch run.
 
If you're keeping track at this point, I've added another 8M here and now I'm sitting at roughly 127M.
 
Next up, I target a catcher. I'm not liking the idea of going with Astrudillo as my backup C. Rortvedt and Jeffers may be knocking at the door next year at this time, but counting on either in 2020 would not be wise. Astrudillo, while a fan favorite, still has options and is extremely valuable to the team earning frequent flier miles between Rochester and Minneapolis when someone gets hurt, so I'm going to sign someone. Retaining Castro is fine in my opinion if he's OK with a backup role. I'm looking though for no more than a two year deal. Castro works fine here, but I'd also target Austin Romine, Brian McCann, or Steven Voght. I'd be fine sacrificing a few home runs for some OBP. These guys are not young, so they won't be getting a huge deal. I'm going to guess it will be somewhere around 2/10-15, giving you a 5-8M cost in payroll. I'm going to assume this is 6M for now, bringing payroll up to 133.
 
Last, I'm targeting a RP. I didn't learn my lesson about free agent relievers (and hopefully I'll update that blog at some point later this month), and there's 1 FA reliever that I want on this team and think that Falvey should pay for. I'm targeting Will Smith and spending what it takes to get him. I'm guessing he's signing for a 3-4 year deal at 10M+. He signed a 3/24 deal with SF in his last go around, and I have to think he's going to get at least that. I'm going to assume 3/30, but I'd be willing to pay more.
 
That brings payroll up to 143.
 
My 26 man roster is now as follows:
C - Garver
1B - Cron
2B - Arraez or Gordon
3B - Sano
SS - Polanco
CF - Buxton
RF/LF - Rosario/Kepler
DH - Cruz
 
SP
Cole/Strassburg, Berrios, Odorizzi, Graterol/Pineda or other pitching FA, Dobnak
 
RP
Smith, May, Duffey, Rodgers, Littell, Graterol, Harper (I'd have some open competition, but these are who I've penciled in).
 
Bench
Adrianza, Cave, Castro or other FA, Gonzalez
 
I didn't count the salaries of Littell, Harper, and Cave or whomever internally would beat them out which comes out to another 1.5M. That puts my total payroll at roughly 144.5. I would hope this could go up a bit if my estimates were a bit low, but there's room there in my opinion.
 
So there you have it. We can add a top shelf starter and relief pitcher and keep our payroll under 150M. I'm not sure what the front office will target, but this seems like a very reasonable option to field a very competitive team in 2020 and one with a good shot of advancing deep in the post season.

This is my second installment tracking all of the FA relievers. This was a personal nit to pick with the front office given the team's need and the plethora of available options. At the quarter pole though, the results were not as good as I'd have liked personally. At this point, the sample sizes are large enough that we should be able to get a feel for who was worth it, or if FA relievers really are just a crap shoot.
 
 
The cream of the Crop:
 
Kelvin Herrera - Herrera signed a 2/17 deal with Chicago and has so far been a complete bust, posting an ERA north of 7 out of the pen in 35 appearances so far this season. His K rate has been acceptable, but his BB rate has risen along with his WHIP which sits close to 1.2. His HR rate has also skyrocketed sitting at around 1.5 per 9 innings.
 
Andrew Miller - Miller has turned it around a bit since the quarter pole, but even now it's hard to say his 2/25 deal with an additional option is what the Cards hoped it would be. His numbers are currently sitting around his career average as opposed to the 2014-2017 version that we had all hoped he'd do. I cannot really call this a bust anymore, but I'm not sure he'd be a name highly talked of if he was pitching here. To put it in perspective, his ERA sits right around where the much maligned Blake Parker sits. Granted, his peripherals are much better which tells me he may continue to positively regress.
 
Adam Ottavino - I hate the Yankees. He's been a stud. His walk rate seems to be the only negative. He's striking out 12+ per 9 innings and walking 6+... That said, his WHIP is a healthy 1.3 as batters cannot make contact with him.
 
Craig Kimbrel - This was a name we all watched closely. He's only managed 3 appearances for the Cubs since signing, so it's a bit too early to track this one. He has been shelled so far... but then again, it's 3 appearances.
 
Jeurys Familia - Familia thus far hasn't rewarded the 3/30 contract he signed. His K rate is in line with his career norms, but he's walking more, giving up more hits, and giving up more home runs. His peripherals are pretty ugly right now and he sports a sparking 7.76 ERA in 31 appearances.
 
Zach Britton - Britton signed a 3/39 deal with the Yankees and has pitched reasonably well, though I'm not sure why. His K rate is pretty bad for a reliver and below his 7.34 career average. His walk rate is up as well. He's managed to lower his H/9 rate as well as keep the ball in the park. If he was pitching for MN, I think most of us would be on pins and needles, but he's gotten results thus far in his 37 innings of work.
 
Joe Kelly - Kelly signed a 3/25 deal with the LAD and has improved substantially on his results this quarter. Despite that, he hasn't been that good. His K rate remains good, but he's still allowed more walks, hits, and home runs over his career average. And I'd add that his career marks aren't very good for a RP. LA has him for another two years.
 
David Robertson - Robertson signed a 2/23 deal with Philly and has been a bust so far. He's pitched in only 7 innings and has been shelled. He's currently on the shelf with elbow soreness where he has been all season.
 
In all, there has been only one real hit here in Ottavino. Miller is making a case for being added to this list as he's improved substantially over his numbers earlier this season. Britton has gotten results as well, but he appears to be on borrowed time.
 
The Second Tier:
 
Justin Wilson - Wilson was a cheap grab for the Mets, signing a 2/10 deal. It appears that he spent most of the second half of the quarter on the DL, as he's only logged 10.2 innings of work with a 4.22 ERA. He's got time to redeem himself, but this deal hasn't gone well.
 
Joakim Soria - Soria signed a 2/15 deal with Oakland, and has improved a bit on his numbers at the quarter turn. His ERA has dropped and his peripherals all look pretty good. Oakland has worked him hard as he's got 41.2 innings under his belt already this season. I'd say at this point that the signing has been good. I'm not sure the cause of the bloated ERA, but if I was guessing it would be the occasional big game as his peripherals say he's been pretty good.
 
Cody Allen - Allen signed a 1 year deal with the Angels and so far has not lived up to his 8.5M salary. His HR and BB rates have skyrocketed though he still maintains a sexy K rate. His 5.54 ERA is something we can all live without. He's now in our minor league system. I'd say this is a good deal for the Twins getting him at the minimum if they can fix him, not so much for the Angels who will pay the rest of the 8M owed. Time will tell if we can do something, but this was no risk to us. He was a bust though for the Angels.
 
Jesse Chavez - Chavez signed a 2/8 deal with Texas, and is trying to reinvent himself as a reliever. At the quarter pole, the results weren't all that good, but they've moved into respectable territory at the half way mark. I'd say at this point, this is a good signing, especially for the price. Chavez could replace a few arms in our pen, but we'd be happy to upgrade him. His K rate is below average for a good reliever, but he does minimize walks and hits.
 
Trevor Rosenthal - Rosenthal has under performed his 1/7 deal and has been a complete disaster managing only 6 innings of very ugly baseball in the majors.
 
There are only 5 names in this tier, and it has improved a bit as the season wore on. At the quarter pole, there
wasn't a name on this tier that we'd be clamoring for. Now, Chavez and Soria both fall into a range of acceptable. That's not really high praise, but they appear to be trending in the right direction and could be reliable going forward.
 
Cheap Fliers:
 
Brad Brach - At the quarter pole, he wasn't that bad. At the half way mark, he's been horrible. The K rate is nice, but he's walking guys like crazy as well and still gives up hits. His ERA sits over 6 in 35 innings of work, and I'm sure he's part of the reason the Cubs went out and got Kimbrel.
 
Zach Duke - yes, that Zach Duke. He signed a 2M deal with the Reds and has been so bad that they've only given him an additional 5 innings since the last time I wrote this piece. He's been injured for parts of it and largely ineffective when healthy.
 
Cory Gearrin - the Mariners have, thus far, gotten a bargin with Gearrin for the 1.4M value of his contract. He has regressed a bit since the quarter pole but has notched over 30 innings of OK work. He really needs to cut down on his walk rate a bit. This isn't a bad value signing, but he doesn't have a place on a contending team. He's been worse than Parker to put that in perspective.
 
Greg Holland - Holland has regressed a bit from the quarter pole, and his numbers currently sit in line with his more recent 2015-2017 marks. He still doesn't look like the Holland of old, but for 3.25M, he's been cheap and effective. This is definitely still a win for AZ, and he'll likely be flipped for a lotto ticket by teams looking to replace busts on this list, but he's not pitching like a late pen option either.
 
Shawn Kelley - Another nice find for the bargain price of 2.75M. Kelley has only pitched 32 innings at this point and would be a decent option in our pen. He's not elite, but he's gotten results to the tune of a 3.09 ERA. His biggest draw back has been the long ball. He'd be an upgrade over several members in our pen currently.
 
Aaron Loup - The Padres got him for 1.4M and he's been perfect so far this season. The only real problem is that it's a 4 inning sample as he hit the IL in early April with elbow soreness.... and he's still there. I have to call this a bust at this point.
 
Blake Parker - At the time of signing, I simply noted that I didn't mind it if this was not the main RP piece we've added. Sadly, it was, and it wasn't even the best move. I'm not tracking Ryne Harper here as he was signed to a minor league deal, but he's out performed Parker. Parker, on the other hand, has out performed most of the people I'm tracking. This is technically a win for the front office, but literally everyone here wants him upgraded. Parker's biggest problem has been home runs, though his peripherals are all well below what they were when he was a successful MLB reliever. I think he might be adequate if kept in lower leverage situations/mop up duty, but relying on him with any kind of consistency in high leverage situations would be a mistake.
 
Oliver Perez - Perez signed a 2.5M deal with Cleveland. He has only pitched in 24 innings thus far. A quick search didn't find any injuries, but Cleveland is clearly not heavily using him. He's been acceptable for them with some pretty good peripherals backing an ERA of 3. His HR rate is a bit higher than one would like. This again is a great value signing and would be better than just a mop up guy.
 
David Phelps - The Blue Jays signed him in hopes that he recovers from TJS at some point this year and pitches. He went under the knife last spring. Not a bad risk for 2.5M. He hadn't pitched at the quarter pole but now has 9.2 innings notched. This may end up being a good signing, time will tell. He hasn't pitched well enough to warrant someone giving up much in terms of prospects for him. Perhaps that changes in the next couple of weeks given the SSS issues at play here.
 
Tony Sipp - Sipp signed for 1.25 for the Nats and has not been good. He's improved a bit on his quarter pole results, but he's pitched in only 16 innings thus far.
 
Hunter Strickland - Strickland signed a 1.3M deal and has pitched all of 2 innings, and poorly only to hit the IL with an injury. He appears to be starting rehab at this point. Not a bad gamble, but a bust.
 
Adam Warren - Warren has been a bust in 28.2 bad innings for SD. He's gotten worse as the season went on and is costing 2.5M. I doubt he fetches much value at the deadline.
 
Summarizing the fliers, there were some good finds here. No one in this group falls into a late inning option, but several would be perfectly acceptable in the next tier. I count 5 guys that are successful and that would be desired by a number of teams if they were available. None of those guys, however, would be that elite help they needed, but would be acceptable tier 2 BP options. There are 5 busts here and one guy in the too soon to tell.
 
In all, my conclusion hasn't changed much. FA relievers haven't been an option. Only Ottavino has lived up to his status at the top, though through the half way point there are a number of names that would fit nicely into the tier 2 mark. Statistically speaking, the fliers have performed the best so far... and that's not high praise. The front office might have been right in not plunking down good money for help here. The problem is that they will now shell out some decent prospects for help here.

In part two of this series we will be looking at the 2010 MLB draft. This series is about looking at how the Twins did in the draft during the past decade, not a wine piece. We will see positives and negatives in the Twins’ draft prowess. Another intention of this piece is to simply show how hard it is to draft and develop MLB players.
 
With the 21st pick in the 2010 draft the Minnesota Twins selected RHP Alex Wimmers out of the Ohio State University. Wimmer never lived up to expectations that can largely be blamed on injury that greatly affected his development. In 2010 Wimmers was diagnosed with UCL issues but at the time the team and doctors, along with Wimmers seemed to think he could heal the ligament with rest and rehabilitation so he elected to not have Tommy John Surgery. After almost two years of this he finally had Tommy John and was never able to live up to the expectations that come with being a first round pick. Wimmers did end up making it to the majors with the Twins but did not do well. As of now he does not have a pitching gig and last pitched for the Marlins’ AAA affiliate in 2018. Wimmers’ career numbers are as follows:1-3 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.662 WHIP. His WAR ended up being 0.2 in his 24.2 innings that span 22 games. Wimmers caught on with the Marlins organization in 2018 but only played four games with their AAA affiliate before being released.
 
The five picks that came after the Twins were:
22. TEX: Kellin Deglan, HS Catcher
23. MIA: Christian Yelich, HS First baseman
24. SF: Gary Brown, Cal State-Fullerton CF
25. STL: Zack Cox, Arkansas Third Baseman
26. COL: Kyle Parker, Clemson Outfielder
 
Kellin Deglan
While we think that most of these guys have probably already become whatever they are going to be, Deglan is the one guy in this group that might still have a chance, but it’s doubtful. We know that catchers take a little longer to develop than most other positions but Deglan has not shown any spectacular skills in the minors such as a guy like Mitch Garver did. Deglan is a career .223 hitter in the minor leagues. He spent a little time in the Australian Baseball League before coming back to the organization that drafted him in the Texas Rangers. The Rangers ended up letting him go and he has been splitting time between the AA and AAA affiliates of the New York Yankees ever since. If Deglan is ever able to make it to the show, it will be his good but not great defense that will earn him the call.
 
Christian Yelich
Just like in 2009, the Twins missed out a future MVP. Of course we don’t know if Yelich would have developed the same way with the Twins as he did with the Marlins but his career 29.4 WAR would look awfully good in the middle of this current Twins lineup. Drafted as a first baseman, Yelich has found a home in the outfield with two National League clubs in the Marlins and was traded to the Brewers for four prospects in the winter of 2018 and went on to win the NL MVP the ensuing season. In an absolutely loaded draft, Yelich may be the best but is certainly in the top five of all of the player drafted in 2010 in a draft that included, among others; Bryce Harper (1), Jameson Taillon (2), Manny Machado (3), Yasmani Grandal (12), Chris Sale (13), and a few other MLB stars. Before you get mad about the selection, just remember that this is a highly difficult process and 21 other teams also missed on this guy.
 
Gary Brown
Brown spent only six seasons in professional baseball, playing in seven career MLB games and checking in at a 0.1 career WAR. Brown got off to an amazing start to his professional career, he was the 2011 California Player of the Year in his first full professional season and was largely considered the Giants center fielder of the future. He had 53 stolen bases that season and was quickly shooting up the prospect lists. He never sustained any major injuries during his MiLB career but never came close to repeating his performance in A+ that got everyone excited in 2011. He shuddered through four more minor league seasons and got a chance with the Giants as a September call-up in 2014 where he got into seven games, went 3-7, and was then sent into DNF hell the following offseason. He got a chance with both the LAA and STL but was not able to do much with either of their AAA affiliates and faded out of the Independent league a year later. Brown would later blame the hype he received after his first full year’s success as the reason he stopped getting better, he stopped making adjustments because he already felt he was good enough. For more on that here is a very interesting article about Brown, https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/giants/gary-brown-never-recovered-field-2015-dfa-hurt-me-my-core .
 
Zack Cox
Early on Cox looked like the steal of this draft, ranking as Baseball America’s #62 prospect in the preseason of 2011 and #88 in 2012. Cox played well early on in his MiLB career but was later limited by injuries and then started to move around the league. He was traded to the Marlins for Edward Mujica at the deadline in 2012. After that he was drafted in the 2015 Rule 5 draft by the Nationals and then released in April 2016. He was signed by the Tigers in 2017 but elected free agency after not playing much and has not resurfaced in the MiLB since. In between his time with the Nationals and Tigers organization he did play fairly well for the Wichita Wingnuts of the International League but has since left baseball and was unable to ever make it to the “Bigs.”
 
Kyle Parker
Besides Yelich, nobody on this list has played more MLB games than Parker with 64. Unfortunately for him in the Rockies that equates to a -1.6 WAR. Parker got a chance but was never able to live up to expectations of the first round pick, just like four of the other five guys on this list. He went 24-132 in his career and was released following spring training in 2016. He signed a minor league deal with the Reds that April and played with their AAA team but was released in June of the same year. Parker does have an interesting story apart from his failed MLB career, he spent three years at Clemson University where he played both football and Baseball. He was Clemson’s starting QB for two seasons before leaving when he was drafted after his third college season by the Rockies. In his NCAA football career he went 15-12 with 4,739 passing yards and 32 touchdowns in two years as a starter.
 
Overall the 2010 MLB draft gave us a lot of great ball players, this group gave us one. This group would look like a complete bust if not for Christian Yelich. This again shows us how hard it is to draft baseball players. In the next edition of this draft we will look at the Twins’ first pick in the 2011 MLB draft, Levi Michael and the players that followed him.

I will be the first to admit, I was absolutely stunned by the Twins poor start in 2018 and am equally as stunned by their dynamite start to 2019. All of you on Twins Daily are aware of this, but just to reiterate for the sake of context:
-The Twins came off of a 103-loss 2016 season to nab the second Wild-Card spot in 2017 with a record of 85-77.
-The Twins had an emerging group of youngsters such as Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sanó, José Berríos, and Eddie Rosario that seemed poised to improve after strong finishes to 2017 (with the exception of Sanó, who as an All-Star but missed the last two months due to injury)
-The Twins also were anchored by veterans such as Brian Dozier, Kyle Gibson, Eduardo Escobar, Joe Mauer, and Jason Castro, who were all instrumental to the Twins' run at the end of 2017.
-The Twins then added veterans Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney, and Zach Duke to shore up a weak bullpen that waved goodbye to Brandon Kintzler at the 2017 Trade Deadline, when the Twins were below .500 and looked to be out of the race. They also traded for Jake Odorizzi, who the brass liked and believed had untapped potential (he was a former top prospect, after all) and signed starter Lance Lynn, who had a very good track record in St. Louis.
The result? A 7-4 start, followed by a 3-13 stretch that included an 8-game losing streak, en route to a disappointing 78-84 finish to the season. It also was the gut-wrenching goodbye to fan-favorites Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar, in addition to Duke, Rodney, Lynn, and, to my surprise, Ryan Pressly.
I, along with many other Twins fans, held on to hope for dear life until the Twins were swept in a three-game series in Kansas City after the All-Star Break. At that point, I knew and finally, reluctantly, accepted that it was over. A once-promising season thrown down the drain. However, looking back, is that final 78-84 mark actually surprising? And is it actually bad? Let's stop and consider.
It all started before the season started, when Ervin Santana, the ace of the Twins in 2017, delayed his surgery until February and would not be able to start the season on-time. As it turned out, he didn't throw a pitch until August. Then, the news broke that Jorge Polanco would miss 80 games with a suspension for testing positive for Stanozolol, a banned substance. The Twins were surely upset, but not panicked, as Lynn was signed and Escobar became the regular shortstop and hit very well.
In April, the Twins had three consecutive games postponed due to weather, which ended up giving the Twins 4 days off before going to Puerto Rico, where they played in a 16-inning game that resulted in a win vs the Indians. Then the 8-game losing streak began.
The barrage of setbacks then continued when it was announced that Jason Castro was going to miss the rest of the season. Jason Castro was not a huge weapon offensively at this point, but his value defensively was immense. The Twins turned to veteran Bobby Wilson, who almost gave up baseball before the season, to receive a bulk of the playing time alongside Mitch Garver, who was still very unpolished.
Byron Buxton then proceeded to make 2 trips to the Disabled List and ended up only playing in 28 games all season. That opened the door for Ryan LaMarre and, eventually, Jake Cave. Cave showed an ability to hit the ball, but he and Robbie Grossman in the outfield on a regular basis is clearly not ideal and a substantial downgrade from having Buxton in center, even if he put up mediocre numbers at the plate.
Then June rolled around and the Twins were treading water, fighting for their lives to stay alive. The Twins were forced into making the nuclear decision to send a struggling, and by some reports disinterested Miguel Sanó not to Triple-A, but to Single-A for a complete reboot. His struggles opened the door for Ehire Adrianza to play shortstop every day until Polanco returned. Similar to Cave, Adrianza is a decent player, but he is not a healthy, productive Sanó. The more bench players that have to play regularly, the harder it is to win games.
To compound that, Addison Reed, who was solid for the Twins early, started to break down from overuse and spent a lot of time on the Disabled List. To this day, he has not regained his already-declining velocity and was just recently Designated for Assignment.
The Twins embarked on a late-June, early-July, 9-game road trip to Chicago (3 with each team) and Milwaukee. The Twins went 1-8 on that trip and were, in my mind and the mind of most, dead in the water. Then they went 9-2 on a homestead against the Orioles, Royals, and Rays right before the All-Star Break and were hanging on by just enough of a thread to keep me optimistic. Then the aforementioned Royals series happened and I knew what little hope was left was gone.
The last week of July saw the departure of Brian Dozier, most notably. Another reason for the Twins struggles was that Dozier was never able to get it going after having a hot first week in Baltimore and Pittsburgh with 4 home runs. It was all downhill from there, though a dramatic walk-off grand slam in the last game before the break provided one last thing to cheer about before his send-off to LA.
To summarize, here is what happened to the Twins in 2018:
-Injured starting catcher, who was replaced by a veteran backup.
-Injured starting center fielder
-Suspended starting shortstop
-Injured ace
-Injured relief-ace
-Declining starting second baseman
-Disinterested former-All-Star third baseman who had to be demoted and rebooted
All things considered, it is no surprise that the Twins underperformed in 2018. All told, perhaps 78 wins is not so bad after all. 2019 is off to a great start; this was the expectation last year, but we're getting it a year late! In my opinion, this team is better than the Opening Day 2018 team.

Gaging value in relief pitichers is always a difficult task given that they are prone to issues with small sample size. Many relievers who were good one season will regress the next, and as we've seen with Blake Parker, guys who were nothing special can turn into a very good option.
 
Regardless, it was, without question, a point of contention this offseason among TD readers about the front office getting more help for the pen. I personally beat this horse dead on numerous occasions. I was happy with the Parker signing, but made it clear that I didn't want this to be the main acquisition. The pen so far has not been as bad as some of us (myself included) thought. It has essentially been slightly better than league average if WAR is be believed, though its peripherals definitely say that there's room for improvement.
 
As such, I'm going to wade into the dollars vs. development debate and take a look at the FA relievers from the 2018 season to see if it was worth spending the money. I'll split these out by contract value. That's a bit arbitrary, but it does speak to the general demand for these players. My main source is this ESPN list. I'm not going to pretend that I've found all of them, so apologies if I missed a few. I'm not going to touch minor league signings.
 
The cream of the Crop:
Kelvin Herrera - Herrera signed a 2/17 deal with Chicago and has so far been a bust, posting an ERA north of 5 out of the pen in 20 appearances so far this season. His K rate has been acceptable, but his BB rate has risen along with his WHIP.
Andrew Miller - Another big name in the RP market, Miller has been, so far at least, a bust as well, posting a 4.80 ERA for the Cards after signing a 2/25 deal with an additional option. His K rate has improved this season but his WHIP has gotten worse with increases in hits, walks, and HRs per 9 innings.
Adam Ottavino - Our first success story on the big name candidates comes from Ottavino, who thus far has been a dominant option in the back of the Yankees' pen. His control has been a bit worse than normal (walking 6.5 batters per 9), but his hit rate is an absurd 4.5 per 9 and his strike out rate has increased as well. So far at least the 3/27 contract he signed has been good for NY.
Craig Kimbrel - He's still unsigned. So the book is still out.
Jeurys Familia - Familia chose to remain with the Mets this offseason, and thus far hasn't rewarded the 3/30 contract he signed as his ERA is also north of 5 and his WHIP has skyrocketed due in large part to doubling his walk rate. His HR rate has doubled too thus far.
Zach Britton - Britton made bank signing a 3/39 deal with the Yankees and has so far not disappointed. His K rate has increased substantially while the rest of his peripherals have remained pretty close to the same. His ERA is slightly lower as well.
Joe Kelly - Kelly signed a 3/25 deal with the LAD and has been probably the worst of this bunch. His ERA sits over 8. His K rate has dropped and he's seen large increases in both his hit and HR rates in his 16 appearances. His walk has dropped though.
David Robertson - Robertson signed a 2/23 deal with Philly and has been a bust so far. He's pitched in only 7 innings and has been shelled. He's currently on the shelf with elbow sorness.

In all, there have only been two hits of the 7 who signed in this group. I cannot emphasize enough that SSS is a huge factor here, but only 2 of these guys would have helped our pen... and unfortunately both are pitching for NY.
 
Second Tier
Justin Wilson - Wilson was a cheap grab for the mets, signing a 2/10 deal. Risk aside, he hasn't performed well thus far posting a 4.8 ERA in only 10 games. His peripherals are all over the place and seems to be buoyed largely by a couple extra home runs. His K rate and BB rates are both down this year.
Joakim Soria - Soria signed a 2/15 deal with Oakland, and while the ERA is not pretty, his peripherals are in line with his career averages. Both his K rate and BB rates are up a bit and he has yet to give up a HR in his 21 innings. I'm not sure I'd call this a bust at this point as I think he's probably a victim of bad luck, but his 5.14 ERA is a bit ugly.
Cody Allen - Allen signed a 1 year deal with the Angels and so far has not lived up to his 8.5M salary. His HR and BB rates have skyrocketed though he still maintains a sexy K rate. His 5.54 ERA is something we can all live without.
Jesse Chavez - Chavez signed a 2/8 deal with Texas, and thus far every one of his peripherals have trended in the wrong direction. His ERA is north of 5.
Trevor Rosenthal - Rosenthal has under performed his 1/7 deal and is currently in the minors rehabbing due to a viral infection. His 3 inning ML sample is a bit too small to gage at this point, though the results weren't good.

There are only 5 names in this tier, and so far every team wouldn't mind a do over. I could see a couple of these names evening out over the course of this season, but none of these guys would have helped us much at this point.
 
Cheap Fliers
Brad Brach - Brach has gotten results for the Cubs, but his peripherals say he's on borrowed time. His walk rate has doubled and his K rate is about at career norms. Still for 3 million dollar deal, Brach hasn't been bad.
Zach Duke - yes, that Zach Duke. He signed a 2M deal with the Reds and has been horrible in 15 innings so far.
Cory Gearrin - the Mariners have, thus far, gotten a bargin with Gearrin for the 1.4M value of his contract. His ERA is a bit higher than we'd like for an RP at 3.63 but thus far he's performed. His K rate is way up as is his walk rate. Gearrin would be an upgrade over a couple players in our pen. Not bad for the money.
Greg Holland - I have to tip my cap to those on the Holland bandwagon along with Arizona for picking him for only 3.25M. He's been worth it posting a 1.80 ERA. Despite an elevated walk rate, his WHIP is down. His K rate is up. He's given up less hits and kept the ball in the park in his 15 innings. He would be one of our best relievers.
Shawn Kelley - Another nice find for the bargain price of 2.75M. Kelley has only pitched 14 innings, but has given up 9 hits and 2 runs in that span allowing for a 1.29 ERA.
Aaron Loup - The Padres got him for 1.4M and he's been perfect so far this season. The only real problem is that it's a 4 inning sample as he hit the IL in early April with elbow soreness. The book is still out here.
Blake Parker - We know him. So far a win for the front office.
Oliver Perez - Perez signed a 2.5M deal with Cleveland. He has only pitched in 10 innings to the tune of a 4.5 ERA thus far. Not a bad find in the value category. His peripherals all look pretty good and he's one of the few pitchers whose BB rate has dropped so far this season. I'm going with a bit of bad luck on the ERA, but he wouldn't present much of an upgrade to our pen.
David Phelps - The Blue Jays signed him in hopes that he recovers from TJS at some point this year and pitches. He went under the knife last spring. Not a bad risk for 2.5M. He's yet to pitch.
Tony Sipp - Sipp signed for 1.25 for the Nats and has not been good. He's appeared in 17 games and only pitched 9 innings with an ERA of 6.
Hunter Strickland - Strickland signed a 1.3M deal and has pitched all of 2 innings, and poorly. He's out a couple months due to a grade 2 strain of a lat muscle.
Adam Warren - Warren has been OK for the Padres with a 3.72 ERA. That's not special, nor are his peripherals, but he hasn't been horrible either. Not bad for 2.5M.

Of the 12 names on this list, there are only 3 clear misses at this point. Phelps was not expected to necessarily be pitching yet, so I'd say the jury is still out here. That may turn into a good deal for the Jays. Given their season though, he's likely going to be traded if he's pitching this summer. Holland, Kelley, and Parker have all been quite good for their teams. The other 6 fall under too soon to tell or value signings in that they haven't been bad, though they wouldn't necessarily be huge upgrades either.
 
One other trend that I noticed is that most relievers seemed to have noticeable increases in their BB rates. I'm not sure if that's more on an emphasis on Ks (which also were generally up), but relief pitching outcomes seemed much more skewed to higher BB and K rates over these pitcher's career norms. That appears, thus far, to the be the case across MLB as well, as RPs in general are averaging 3.93 BB per 9 along with 9.42 K per 9. Both are thus far significantly higher than last year.
 
Obviously, with these small samples, it's a bit too soon to tell on all of them, but for those of us (myself included) who wanted the Twins to do more, the results say that they would have likely missed.. The top tier has had some good performances, but has ultimately disappointed. The bottom tier has had about the same percentage of hits as the top tier along with some value guys who have performed as well as the top tier signings for much less. As much as I hate to say it, it looks like our front office hasn't done a bad job in this area.

This time of the year is always exciting as a baseball fan, the start of spring training brings an undeniable energy that rejuvenates every single fanbase across the country, yes, even Mariners fans. But the last two offseasons now have brought the droning, political, and monotonous free agency cycle bleeding into the beginning of spring training. Whether it be the owners becoming greedy and selfish in their wealth, the front offices becoming wiser in how money is allocated in free agent deals, or Scott Boras wanting to piss off every single team with his negotiating style, players and teams are no longer seeing eye-to-eye and deals have taken longer to manifest.
 
Even with the shocking announcement of Manny Machado manifest destinying his way out west again, there still sits a bounty of veteran players available on the free agent market including a handful of players who would make every team in baseball better with their presence. One of those players is Craig Kimbrel, a hard-throwing righty who looks like a stunt double who Peter Jackson rejected from his Lord Of The Rings trilogy. Even with this demeanor, Kimbrel has carved out a career as one of the best closers in the game and currently sits as the 14th highest saves getter in MLB history despite being only 30.
 
Now, before I go any farther, I want to make something very clear. I have been a fan of the moves the Twins have made so far this offseason. I love the Cruz addition along with both Kepler’s and Polanco’s extensions, I like the Parker, Schoop, and Cron additions, and I have even come around on believing in a Martin Perez bounceback. I have especially been a fan of the revamped coaching staff at all levels that have included hiring a slew of progressive, forward-thinking coaches with Rocco Baldelli now at the helm of the major league team. I also love reading stories about Wes Johnson, who would probably whoop Rick Anderson if he heard him talking about “pitching to contact”.
 
That all being said, it feels disappointing as a fan to see such a large amount of payroll currently sitting there completely unused. Even the most radical fan understood that they were never going to spend like the Dodgers, but there is still a decent gap between where they are now and where they could still be within the usual parameters of their spending habits. And the size of that gap is 6 feet tall and sticks his arm out like a pelican before delivering a pitch.
 
When talking about Kimbrel’s dominance, his stats truly speak for themselves. His career 14.67 K/9 is so obscene and disgusting that even speaking it out loud could get you arrested for indecent exposure. His career fWAR of 19.0 is 14th all-time among relievers despite the fact that he has half or even a third of the total innings of some of the names ahead of him. His career ERA of 1.91 is 1st among all relievers in MLB history with at least 500 innings thrown. Yes, it is lower than perfect hall of famer, Mariano Rivera. And take a good guess where his career FIP ranks also among relievers with at least 500 innings pitched.
 
Ah, but there is indeed a reason why Kimbrel has not signed isn’t there? We all know what his career has been so far, but MLB teams care more about where your career is going from here, and as I found out in a previous article, relievers typically have a short shelf life in MLB. Kimbrel struggled in 2018 or at least did so by his standards, much like when the smart kid gets an A-. But this A- came with a higher than normal BB/9 of 4.48, a lower than normal K/9 of 13.68, a 2nd half ERA of 4.57, and one hell of a messy playoff streak that is still in the minds of everyone.
Despite what the narratives feel like for the redbeard though, his ERA last year was still just 2.74 and his FIP was a “high” 3.13. That FIP would slide in right behind Taylor Rogers and Trevor May for the Twins and be 3rd among their relievers in 2018 or by relievers who threw a full season for the Twins and only the Twins last year, just Taylor Rogers.
 
Strategically, having the sleeping dragon as the final boss in the Twins pen would have an incredible ripple effect throughout all their relievers. May and Rogers would be unleashed in fireman roles, calming down rallies before they even get a chance to begin. Trevor Hildenberger and Addison Reed can re-find their footing in lower leverage roles earlier in the game and eat up important innings before the meat of the pen can do their work. Blake Parker can go do Blake Parker things when needed and Fernando Romero can terrorize hitters at will with his disgusting 98 MPH two-seamer. In my plan, Andrew Vasquez is also here to serve up sliders at a rate that would make White Castle jealous because Gabriel Moya gives me anxiety when he pitches. Also, replacing Matt Magill with Kimbrel would take their projected fWAR total out of the bullpen from 19th in baseball at 2.1 to tied with the Astros at 4th with an fWAR total of 4.2. And changing Magill with Kimbrel in practice is a lot like replacing a flyswatter with a bazooka.
 
I’ve gushed over Kimbrel’s ability quite a lot in this article, but something that a lot of Twins fans would also like to know is that his average fastball velocity last year was 97.1 MPH. Yes, he threw 97 on average. Was there even a guy for the Twins last year to throw a single heater that fast? Maybe old man Rodney, but no one else was doing it as consistently as Kimbrel over here. And as a fan of a team that has been notoriously poor in developing hard-throwing pitchers cough cough, Alex Meyer, cough cough, wouldn’t it feel great to finally have a guy spitting fire in the pen?
 
Earlier this month, Dan Hayes did mention that there was interest on the Twins side to bring Kimbrel aboard and with recent news that the Red Sox would rather play with their World Series trophy than bring him back, the amount of teams that are in play for Kimbrel appears to be limited. While we have heard nothing as far as years and money that the Twins have offered, I can say with a good deal of confidence that there is no contract they could offer that would tank them for the duration of such a deal. I personally would offer Kimbrel a 3 year $54 million deal with a vesting option for a 4th year. That $18 million would bring the Twins to a payroll total around the number it was at last year and would make them more respectable in the AL Central battle between them and the Indians without having to sacrifice flexibility for future contracts if other young guys figure their stuff out.
 
So, Derek Falvey or whatever Twins front office member that stumbles on this article, I beg of you, sign this man to a contract as soon as you can. Twins fans would be very pleased and you would earn a good deal of credit in their eyes as they are begging for you to spend some money. Not only that, but you guys can get creative and put together an elaborate entrance plan for him as you did with Rodney, complete with flashing lights and hype music that could be heard from St. Cloud.
 
I’ll leave you with Craig Kimbrel stealing Giancarlo Stanton’s soul with a curveball that would make Bert Blyleven proud.
 
https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1048411416896659456
 
Now, does anyone know what Falvey’s email is? I’m trying to CC him this article but I can’t find him anywhere.

I sit here on the Wednesday of February the 13th, the same day that pitchers and catchers have reported for the Twins, pretty much stuck in my dorm as the classes on my campus were canceled for the 3rd straight day due to snow. At this point, I actually want to go to class because there is something inside me that craves work of some sort and the amount of MLB The Show and Grand Theft Auto that I have played over the last few days would make any sane human nauseous. The solution, of course, is to humbly offer another article to the Twins Daily powers that be in the hope that they approve of my sacrifice and allow me to post another day.
 
It was brought to my attention the other day that, by xwOBA, the unluckiest hitter in all of MLB in 2018 was Logan Morrison. Let me back that up a little because I’m sure my dad just had an aneurysm trying to read “xwOBA”. Let’s start with the wOBA part before x gives it to ya. wOBA stands for weighted on-base average and it does what slugging and OPS try to do, it calculates the value of a hitter with the understanding, as the opposite of what Thomas Jefferson once proclaimed, that not all hits are created equal. Slugging and OPS attempt this also, but both stats assume that the value of hits is linear, which is to say that OPS believes a homer is exactly twice as valuable as a double or a triple is exactly three times as a good as a single.
 
While OPS thinks this, wOBA understands that this is simply not true and instead calculates the importance of these outcomes with their correct value. If you want to read a piece that goes into more detail about wOBA and how it is calculated, Fangraphs has a great article about it that can be found here and I would highly suggest reading it before moving on in my article. As a quick rule of thumb, an average wOBA is about .320 while an above average wOBA is about .340 and a below average wOBA is .310.
 
But we aren’t just talking about wOBA here, we’re talking about xwOBA! What the hell is that x doing there and what does it signify? Thanks to Statcast data, we can calculate more precisely how much luck is involved in the game. xwOBA only cares about the quality of the contact being made and couldn’t give a rats ass about the actual outcomes of the hits. So a screaming line drive that finds the right fielder's glove may not count for anything during the game, but xwOBA thinks that the guy who hit the ball got unlucky and probably will not continue being unlucky going forward if they are capable of hitting the ball like they currently are. xwOBA specifically uses the term “quality of contact” which encompasses exit velocity along with launch angle to determine how lucky or unlucky a certain hitter was. If you want to read more about it, I have another article for your curious mind that will extend the length of time you spend on my article.
 
Now that all of that is out the way, let’s take a look at what xwOBA says about some choice Twins and their 2018 seasons. I’ll be looking at a handful of the most successful Twins players along with who I have deemed their “brother” or someone who had the same or a very similar 2018 xwOBA as them. Numbers are pulled from Baseball Savant here.
 
 

Nelson Cruz and Aaron Judge


 
Isn’t that a tasty comparison? The defier of father time put up a ridiculous .392 xwOBA in 2018, a number just a hair north of noted destroyer of baseballs, Aaron Judge. Despite putting up a wRC+ that was his lowest since 2014, there should be nothing to worry about for Cruz as he continued to annihilate balls at a ridiculous rate and he should provide some serious production in the middle of a Twins lineup that has more power in 3 spots than any of the mid 2000’s team had in the entire lineup. They might have to start handing out helmets in the left field bleachers for safety reasons.
 
 

Joe Mauer and J.T. Realmuto


 
 
While it is great to see Mauer’s name here, it came with some decent scrolling down the list. Cruz was ranked 7th in MLB by xwOBA, but the next Twin comes in at 56th place and he doesn’t even play for the Twins anymore. Wow, that got really sad, let’s spin this in a more positive light. Mauer’s xwOBA says that the dude got robbed hardcore last year as he only put up a .319 wOBA compared to an xwOBA of .350. An unusual feat mainly because hitters like Mauer are prime candidates to be enemies of xwOBA due to their ability to hit the ball to the opposite field. These more “well-rounded” hitters tend to have lower xwOBA numbers because xwOBA does not account for defensive positioning and at the game level, well-hit balls that xwOBA would like are generally pulled and can be gobbled up consistently by the shift. Although, Mauer was such an extreme opposite field guy that the consistency of his hits actually ended up biting him. Oh yeah, and he was as good as J.T. Realmuto in this category, so go trade for that, Philly.
 

C.J. Cron and Giancarlo Stanton


 
You hear that, Yankees fans? Cron is as good as Stanton, open and shut case. Even though probably just about everyone and their mother forgot that Cron was traded from the Angels to the Rays before the 2018 season, he saw a good amount of success with his new team as he translated his “looks like a guy who can whack the crap out of the ball” skills into “actually is a guy that can whack the crap out of the ball” skills. The Rays DFA’d Cron after the season in an effort to recreate the Corey Dickerson fiasco the year before, which led to Derek Falvey waking up from his slumber immediately and punching the “Get Old Rays 1st Baseman Button” he keeps near his bed. Cron put up a respectable .345 xwOBA in 2018 and looks to continue his success with the Twins into the future.
 

Logan Morrison and Daniel Murphy


 
So far, we have two guys that are no longer on the Twins and two guys who just got here, I don’t know what to make of that. As mentioned before, xwOBA feels pretty bad about Morrison’s 2018 and wants to cheer him up with some Jameson, a high-quality steak, a movie on Netflix, and some decent exit velocity numbers. His xwOBA of .340 is a good .057 higher than what his wOBA actually was. As mentioned before with Mauer, Morrison is a prime case of why these numbers aren’t exactly perfect. We all saw him last year refuse to hit the ball the other way and instead groundout to the 2nd baseman directly into the shift over and over. And while the quality of the contact might have been good, the assumption that his luck would change was false. He probably deserved a little better, but I am really glad that he is off the team now.
 

Jake Cave and Whit Merrifield


 
We have quite an interesting pairing here, like when a high school jock starts dating a band girl. Jake Cave was acquired in an incredibly low profile trade before the season but then forced his way onto the major league team and is now probably in the future plans for the Twins due to his ability to hit the snot out of the ball. Despite a hilariously lopsided 33.0% K percent and a BABIP that would make Christian Yelich blush, Cave’s ability to hit the ball a country mile could hold up and allow for him to grow into a more well-rounded batter. With Whit Merrifield as his xwOBA sidekick, Jake Cave will continue to swing hard and hit hard or not at all.
 

Eddie Rosario and ...Ian Kinsler?


 
For a stat that is called “expected wOBA”, this pairing sure is unexpected. Rosario was easily the most productive Twins hitter in 2018 as he continued to put up solid wRC+ numbers while Kinsler was… not productive at all. Kinsler’s hitting went even farther into the toilet following an already disappointing 2017 year as he put up a wRC+ of 93 in 2017 and followed that up with an 87 wRC+ in 2018. Despite this pretty serious disparity, xwOBA has both guys pegged at a .299 clip that would be consistent for Kinsler but incredibly concerning for Rosario. Also, despite similar numbers in 2017 and 2018 for Rosario, xwOBA was much more of a fan of him in 2017 when they had him pegged at a .334 clip that was more in line with how he actually performed that year.
 
The good news is that there aren’t that many Twins players that look due for regression in 2019 based off their 2018 numbers, but the bad news is that the reason for that is because their xwOBA numbers were poor across the board. Even though some players like Cruz and Kepler should see bumps in their production, using past performance to predicate future success is an inconsistent measurement and let’s be honest, using the eye test is just much easier to do instead. And my eyes are telling me that the Twins offense in 2019 should be pretty tasty.

If you don’t already know the Minnesota twins inked the former Ranger southpaw, and well seasoned veteran Martin Perez to a short 1 year compact, to what seems to be a lackluster effort to “fortify the rotation.”
 
Now we can interpret this transaction whatever way we deem to be fit, but the Twins projected rotation lines up as….
 


 
Middling at best.With the likes of two potentially elite pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel standing pat for a desirable bidder, this has caught the chagrin of Twins rage twitter, and you can’t blame them. Imagine inserting Kimbrel or Keuchel into the pitching staff, and the added perks would benefit all parties involved including the most important; rectifying the vast abyss of Twins rants on the interwebs.
 
It isn’t any secret that the Twins have loads of room to supplement the roster to make a bid for the division. With the Indians unloading after 3 years of reigning as division champions, and the Royals, Tigers, and White Sox currently having no plans other the than tanking, the crease is there for the Twins to make a run for the Indian’s money and to snap a near decade for a division title deprived fanbase. Even to that tangent, what even is more baffling is that the Twins have an unprecedented allotment of salary (I felt so deeply compelled to say cap room) on the checkbook or whatever ledger the stingy twins utilize to organize their expenses. As Minnesotan Fans, we are so inherently adept to mediocrity and heartbreak, it’s as if misery is in our compatible middle name. But in this instance, there’s only room to spectate and to be optimistic, which is undoubtedly a tough pill to swallow.
 
The Ugly on Perez
 
The ugly is so glaringly obvious. The kid pitched to the horrendous tune of a 6.22 ERA last season and owns a below average 4.63 ERA. He’s got a poor career 4.44 FIP, and doesn’t strike people out. Watching some footage of his former* (as in last season he was converted into a reliever because he was so awful) starts, the guy doesn’t have an appealing secondary pitch, his control is rather iffy, and his changeup has fallen off a cliff since its former dominance prior to his injury. Speaking of injury, the guy spent 3 stints on the disabled in only the past year, has operated on for Tommy John, and is as far as away from durable as Minnesota is from Texas.
 
The Bad
 
The thing Perez isn’t terrible because he’s bad. As contradictory as it sounds, he isn’t necessarily by any means as pitiful as he appears. Looking at the tape, its as if his performance rides a rollercoaster. During the first inning, the guy is as rocky ever. He gets in many hitters count, can’t find the zone, and gets rocked once he does in 3-0, 2-0, 3-1, or 3-2 counts. But strangely he settles down and is frankly razor sharp with precision in the middle innings. That sinker-changeup combo is to die for on the edge of the plate, and reminds me a lot of….JA Happ. I think toggling with his sinker/four-seamer to changeup ratio, and maybe a change of scenery would do him wonders. Not to mention, GLP in Arlington is no easy place to pitch, because the ball CARRIES out there.
 

 
The Good, and How to enhance it???
 
Believe or not, Perez once was pegged inside the Top 100 prospects in the Baseball America’s 2010 edition. Don’t think because of this though, that I expect him to fulfill his top billing as a prospect. The guy has upside which at this point is hard to believe. But as I watched the tape, he isn’t the doormat pitcher as his number would indicate. He’s a solid and competent enough pitcher in the middle innings and is maybe or not a little shaky-nervous at game tilt. Beyond that, he’s got excellent above-average velocity from a left-handed starter. His relative youth and exuberance leaves room for hope of improvement, and he’s 28. He also is a ground ball demon and induces a well above average GB rate, and at worst is a decent innings eater. We’ve seen this regime sign the flyer free agent, as referencing last year’s Anibal Sanchez reclamation project. After looking at Sanchez’s pitch usage, there’s nothing at first glance that collasally has changed. But taking a deeper dive, we can see that Anibal has surged up in his career ranks in Chase%, Pitches out of the Zone%, and overall Strikeouts%.
 


But his pitch movements, usages, and varying peripherals haven’t drastically changed.
 




What can be attributed to this surge is pitch sequencing. Sanchez better utilized his changeup in complement because he threw the pitch out of the zone. He Split-Finger had a career-high strikeout rate in volume, and had the most minuscule SLG percentage in terms of volume pitched. He cutback the vertical movement of his 12-6 curve, and upped the ante of his split-finger that fit perfectly to a series of pitches (sinker, cutter, split) that better suited his repertoire, featuring horizontal movement. Which is a primary reason why Anibal had a renaissance season.
 
I mention this because..
Anibal was once a former project
Perez bears a striking resemblance to Sanchez, in their deficiencies.

All of this surmounts to absolute and utter baloney if Perez resists in reinventing himself as a pitcher. This, however, does include an unorthodox approach, and completing throwing the entire baseball manual out the window, and tinkering with breaking balls. Look at the Rich Hill’s and the Drew Pomeranz of the world, and we’ve even seen Tyler Duffey rely on an off-speed pitch more than his fastball firsthand. Albeit none of this pitchers are All-Star commodities, they all in some capacity became better to some extent by heavily depending on their secondary stuff. There’s no denying Martin Perez is a fully capable and average enough MLB arm, but the real question remains; Will Martin Perez be open to tinker his arsenal, and if not were the Twins better suited to have unleashed a prospect in his place? That remains to be seen.
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZOeXGX0sfY"]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZOeXGX0sfY[/
 
My virtual fake money is betting on that Wes Johnson and company already have recognized this, and have a plan waiting to be set in motion. My suggestions are pretty rudimentary, but they follow along on a general theme. Adjust and configure Perez’s pitches to align with his strengths. Just a rogue modification of mine for the sake of hypothetical satisfaction; steer towards an arsenal of the basis of vertical movement, (by tinkering with the cutter), reduce the amount of curves, increase the ratio of sliders:curves, and intensify the changeup as a wipeout pitch (which comes in further developing the arm side run, Ala Dallas Keuchel). This isn’t a foolproof formula for immediate results, but over a long term sample size, it's more than likely that Perez’s results would be slightly better than before. There are models of success that radically changed many players careers (i.e JA Happ etc.) that follow the same general blueprint; gear towards a players strength, and wait to experience slight success (snazzy rhyming jingle huh?
 
And if this completely backfires, convert Perez into the bullpen, transition him into a killer LOOGY (he’s seriously a death on lefty guy, look at his numbers) and deal him during the trade deadline for some fringe B- to C prospect and look to take another bite at the apple next year.

on Eduardo Escobar, the best and most important Twin in the last several years. As a latin player he can probably be effective to his late 30 s , His dugout presence is worth a majority of the money, I heard a player say, that when he was traded from the White Sox, it was the first time he had seen MLB players cry. Thats how I felt too...but on the flip side, if you can get 3 respectable prospects AND resign him, what a coup that would be huh?
 
Anyway Falvine, overspend on him bring him home and let his career end in the Cities, Agree?

http://gentlemint-media.s3.amazonaws.com/images/2012/04/18/6745f59b.jpg.505x650_q85.jpg

 
 
ANND Welcome! To Minnesota Twins Whine Line: Detective Edition! I'm your LEAD Investigator, Vanimal, along with my trusty sidekick, the intern. Since we last checked in, both of us set down the PS4 controllers, put MLB The Show back in the case, and studied for our Private Investigator license! In the real world, we noticed that it's January 30th, and 8 out of the top 10 free agents have still yet to sign! It's a strange, boring off-season... There's been several STRONG takes about why this is happening... And we're no different! We decided to put on our Deerstalker, and dive deep into the REAL reason why recent off-seasons are boring...
 
Collusion: It happened once before, so it could happen again, right? That's what we thought too! Until we put it to the test using real world examples... Have you ever arranged a conference call with 30 busy people before? It's NEARLY impossible to do! Plus, they would waste countless hours of time! Owners will be talking over each other, waiting for others to take themselves off mute, jumping on the line 25 minutes late, and needing to "circle back at a later time." All of that sounds exhausting....
 
Whine Line Verdict: False.
 
Waiting for a Sale: As consumers, we're accustomed to Black Friday, Cyber Monday, 4th of July BLOWOUTS, or "just because!" sales. Doesn't it feel good to purchase what you wanted, for a 30% discount! Of course it does! General Managers are humans too, and they want to feel like they got a discount... Now these days he could look at MLBTradeRumors, FanGraphs, even the Twins Daily Handbook to find salary projections of free agents. Where's the excitement?! The THRILL of the hunt?! Perhaps they're waiting for their Cyber Monday sale....
 
Whine Line Verdict: Certainly possible!
 
Too Many Options: Typically at this time of year, 1 or 2 of the top free agents are left unsigned... If that! This year, there are 4 to 8 times as many options! Is it possible that General Managers are frozen in fear because there's too many players to choose from? We took our investigation on the road to get to the bottom of it!
 
ANNND Welcome back! We're broadcasting LIVE from the Cheesecake Factory! That's right, the home of a 20 page menu.... If you can't find something to eat here, you're not looking hard enough! In order to test this theory, the intern and I gave ourselves a 30 minute window to decide what to order...
 
WAITER: "Here are your waters, gentleman. Do you have any questions about the menu? Or know what you want?"
VAN: "I think we need a little bit of time. There's so many options here. Any specials?"
WAITER: "Today's soup of the day is split-pea, and we also have a Philly cheese steak with your choice of fries, salad, fruit, onion rings, or vegetable."
VAN: "Wow, even the sides have a bunch of options to choose from... Okay, we need some time."
 
8 minutes later...
 
WAITER: "Are you ready to order? Questions at all?"
VAN: "Yeah, a few questions. I'm debating between the Avocado BLT, Philly cheese steak, Chicken Parmesan, or Chicken Enchiladas. What would you choose?"
WAITER: "Hmm, well, our Philly is one of the most popular orders today. The Chicken Parmesan is okay, but I would recommend our Spaghetti and Meatballs over that. And frankly, you're better off going somewhere else for Mexican food."
VAN: "That helps... And the Cobb Salad?"
WAITER: "I mean, it's a salad.... So... How about you sir, are you ready?"
INTERN: "I'll have the uh, chi.... No. Not that. Umm.... Can you come back to me?"
WAITER: "Guys, I do have other tables to tend to. I'll come back later."
 
13 minutes later....
 
WAITER: "Okay, how about now?"
INTERN: "I.... I...... I JUST CAN'T DECIDE! Please, come back to me, okay?"
WAITER: "Are you crying, sir?"
INTERN: "It's your fault! There isn't a perfect option to order... EVERYTHING has flaws!"
WAITER: "Okay, this is getting weird. What about you, sir?"
VAN: "I have narrowed it down to 2 items, and I will get back to you by the end of the week."
WAITER: "This ISN'T how this works, sir. Look, guys, it's only lunch. You're just spending some money now... It's not like you're trading me your watch, or I don't know... a top prospect like Nick Gordon in order to eat. So what do you say? Let's figure this out before my shift is over, okay?"
VAN & INTERN: "Wow... This HAS to be how Falvine feels signing free agents.... I've seen the light!"
 
Whine Line Verdict: TRUE

In 1961 Minnesota joined the ranks of Major League Baseball and the National Football League. It might be hard to believe today, but before that there were no Twins and Vikings in the state history, unless you buy the story of the Rune Stone in Alexandria and those Vikings might have tossed rocks, but not footballs. There has never been another year like this in Minnesota sports history and happily I can say I was there – both as a high school sophomore at Central High School in Minneapolis and as an usher in Met Stadium!
 
I loved the Met, the big erector set in the distant community of Bloomington. This was the big leagues for both football and baseball (shortly after we added the Soccer team – the Kicks) and it was in this rural suburb that we planted the seeds for this part of our community lore. Of course, they were not called the Bloomington Twins or the Bloomington Vikings. It might have been appropriate, but then Wold Chamberlain – our massive international airport (just joking) was also located nearby and no one thought to call it the Bloomington airport.
 
 
Of course, we had a sports history before this. In 1960 the Minnesota Gophers were named the number one college football team in the country – yup, Alabama did not get that one. Playing under Murray Warmath with players like Sandy Stevens at QB (he then played in Canadian football league) we were at the top of big time college football and then we went to the big game – the Rose Bowl, where we set the precedence for the soon to arrive Minnesota Vikings - but lost the biggest game of the year to Washington 17 – 7. In the year of the Vikings and Twins the Gophers ranked 6th in the nation and corrected their previous loss by winning the Rose Bowl against UCLA 21 – 3.
 
 
There was no NHL team in the cities (that still amazes me), but that did not mean that there were no sports memories to be had. When I asked a friend, John Helland who retired from working at the state capitol about his impressions of that time he wrote, “Hey, Mike, here's what I remember: Gopher baseball was great, winning the NCAA championship in 1960 over So. Cal. Jim Rantz, longtimeTwin's farm club director, and Tom Moe, also a good football player and much later Athletic Director, were on that team. They also won four years later. Some Gopher hockey players, incl. Herb Brooks, almost made the U.S. hockey team (he was the last team cut). The Saints vs. Millers was a great hockey rivalry then, but don't remember names of good players. Jim Beattie was starting his pro boxing career as an up and coming heavyweight. This is going back almost 60 years now, so just a kid. The 1960 U.S. Olympic team featured Minnesotan’s John Mayasich, Jack McCarten, the goalie, and Warroad's Christian brothers who later developed iconic hockey sticks.”
 
 
We were excited about our sports legacy and we still had a professional team – The Minneapolis Lakers – in 1960. But Mikan retired – he was so good they changed the court – enlarging the lane so that he would not get every rebound. And we were champions – 5 times in 6 years with a roster of NBA Hall of Famers. In the 1958/59 season we drafted Elgin Baylor and the future looked bright. Sitting in the Minneapolis Armory where many games were played there were no bad seats. Unlike the Timberwolves stadium where you need binoculars in the upper deck to watch seven-foot players, at the Armory the players towered over us and it was almost like being on the court. It was great, but attendance was not – how many can you get in the Armory, so in 1960 just as we were getting excited about our new teams – the Lakers were moved – to the west coast, to Los Angeles, to a city that does not even know what a Lake is!
 
 
We would have been depressed, but the Twins were coming. There were minor league teams still playing – the Minneapolis Millers were in Nicollet Stadium, just six blocks from where I lived, until 1956 when they moved to Metropolitan Stadium (who came up with that name for a stadium in the middle of a field in Bloomington?) where they played until 1960. In St Paul, the Saints were the farm team of the Dodgers, who were about to move to the west coast. Who knew then that the Giants would be enticed to move with them. But 1960 would be the last year of this franchise until Mike Veeck and others created the new Saints in independent ball who would play at the same stadium – Midway – that the original Saints used in their final season.
 
 
In 1958, future Twins manager Gene Mauch was the skipper of the Millers – now a farm team for the Red Sox, having been associated with the Giants for years. Mauch led us to the championship and then we lost the Minor League World Series. We knew that major league baseball was coming, and Horace Stoneham of the Giants played us for country bumpkins, promising to move here and using the leverage to get to San Francisco. Our final year was pretty glorious – Carl Yastrzemski was here as was future Twin, Al Worthington.
 
 
This left an opening for a team which we had no association with – the Washington Senators, and their owner/GM – Calvin Griffith. But who cared – this team, so famous for the saying – Washington DC, first in war, last in the American League – was coming. Time to learn who they were. From Senators to Twins – what a transition. Some bonus player named Harmon Killebrew showed up and so did some Latin players like Camilo Pascual and Pedro Ramos. The Pirates were the reigning champions – they were FAMILY – we were in baseball heaven.
 
In the meantime, something else was brewing – the NFL was going to put a team in the state the same year and the same stadium. It was Viking time. And we would be playing outside like real Vikings. Norm Van Brocklin would be our coach and we would have a rookie QB named Frank Tarkington and no one expected him to do anything. As an expansion team, we were expected to be the tackling dummies for the rest of the league. The champions were from Philadelphia – a team called the Eagles, but we knew we would get even with them someday - we hope.
 
 
April 11, 1961 the Twins played the very first Major League Game in Minnesota. There were 39,615 fans – a sellout, and I was an usher. We were so new to this that we still did not know who those players were, but they were ours, so we cheered. Metropolitan stadium with its three decks had never felt the feet of so many people and when they got their coordination together, they would stomp their feet and rock, or should I say – sway, the stadium. Unaccustomed to the rules of the major leagues I remember being booed by thousands of people when I would go to make sure someone was not hurt by a foul ball. They were sure I was there to take the ball back!
 
 
We loved the fresh air, the breeze coming in from right field, the uniforms and excitement of the game, even if we had no idea who manager Cookie Lavagetto was. We had Billy Martin, a future manager at 2B, Harmon Killebrew a future HOF player at 1B, Zoilo Versalles at SS, and Bob Allison in the OF. With Pascual and Ramos was Jack Kralick and Jim Kaat in the rotation. This was so heady we hardly noticed that one of our own – Roger Maris – was hitting the baseball out of the park more than anyone in history. Actually, we knew but it was not as important as the fact that we won 70 games! Of course we also lost 90, but who cared, this was the majors and our guy – Harmon had hit 46 home runs. When the season was over the Twins had drawn 1,256,723 fans, the third highest total in MLB and we were in 7th place, not last (10).
 
Now it was Viking time! The Senators were an established team that moved, but the Vikings were an expansion team and they were not supposed to win. After opening with an exhibition in Sioux Falls, SD the team came home to a rousing welcome. Like good Minnesotans, the fans were all on time, the parking lot was full, and the ushers helped people find their seats quickly. It was an excited crowd, but everyone knew we would lose, that is, everyone but Fran Tarkington who had not read that script and came off the bench to replace the wily old vet, George Shaw, and beat the mighty bears 37 – 13 on opening day!
 
 
For a week we had a perfect record in the NFL. True, we had the Minneapolis Marines and Duluth had the Eskimos, but that ancient history hardly makes a dent in our professional football story, even if the Eskimos had Ernie Nevers, the first Superstar.
 
We got a franchise in the American Football League, but never played a game. The fact that we got awarded this new team meant the NFL (which was not merged with the upstarts) decided to put a team in Minnesota if we gave up that first AFL franchise which subsequently became the Oakland Raiders. The new owners included Ole Haugsrud who had given up the original Duluth team to the league with a provision that he would be allowed ownership in any future NFL team. It took forty years.
 
Playing outside the Viking fans became the new version of the Packers – standing in the cold, breath frozen in the air, a unique sound of clapping gloves, and a rabid excitement that would continue right up today’s softer indoor fans. The opening win shocked everyone, and the roar was similar to the playoff games of the future, but the shock wore off with 7 straight losses and a final 3 – 11 record.
 
Being in the stadium at the end of the season no one minded that we were packed in tightly, it just made us warmer. Thermos’ went from coffee to slightly stronger beverages and the sounds of the stadium faithful echoed across the frozen prairies of Bloomington. An average of 34,586 people attended the games, many of them lopsided contests. Norm Van Brocklin, the ex-quarterback of the Philadelphia Eagles was the grumpy head coach because the quiet man of the north – Bud Grant – would not cancel his contract with the Blue Bombers in the Canadian Football League. Eventually we would get him.
 
I only ushered for one year, but that was enough to create a love for sports that continues today. Only baseball remains with as much passion, but that dates back to my childhood when the only vacation my parents would take was a trip to County Stadium in Milwaukee to watch the Milwaukee Braves in their championship seasons. My career would take me in many directions, including one-year writing for the short-lived Midwest Spectator, a Twin Cities sports publication, and finally into my career in the Outdoor/Environmental Education.
 
 
Like many people I was moved by the events that I witnessed when I was young and even though I attended all the 1991 world series games at home, nothing will be as lasting as that first night when the sun was setting, and the stadium lights came on, when the green of the stadium grass seemed to turn luminescent and the players uniforms sparkled in the light. There was the smell of the concessions, the sound of the bat, and the collective anticipation that something good was going to happen – something good that would continue for the next 57 years and who knows how long into the future.

On Monday, Rhett Bollinger of MLB wrote that the Minnesota Twins are still more likely to upgrade their pitching rotation for 2018 through free agency than by trade.
 
And on Tuesday, MLB Trade Rumors reported off of a 1500 ESPN tweet that pitchers’ agents were getting the sense that the Twins (i.e., Derek Falvey and Thad Levine) were putting off talks until Yu Darvish announces his decision to sign.
 
Reading between the lines, one can interpret these reports to mean that the Twins have not been in much communication with free agent pitchers waiting to sign contracts this offseason.
 
But does an absence of communication mean that the Twins are failing to communicate?
 
A story Thursday in the New York Times (h/t dougd) suggests that Levine is one of the more skilled baseball executives in using alternative means to communicate (such as text messaging) with players, agents, or other major league personnel.

"...today, we negotiate hundreds of millions of dollars of contracts and make massive trades without ever picking up the phone and speaking directly with one another, let alone meeting face to face,” Levine said. “You kind of learn the personalities of guys—who needs a phone call, who can do it on text, who prefers emails, who likes to be lighthearted.
 
"The art of the negotiation has almost been trumped by the art of communication."  
This makes the news that the Twins have not met in person with Darvish much easier to take.
 
Meanwhile, back in December, the Twins were reportedly offered Gerrit Cole in exchange for prospects Nick Gordon, Zack Granite, and Tyler Jay, according to the news site Pirates Breakdown.
 
https://twitter.com/pbcbreakdown/status/940390540998250497
 
Many Twins fans, including myself, liked this trade idea. (See here, here, here, or here —and the proposals offered by Twins fans in these threads were actually not far off the mark in terms of value.)
 
The stat we know as WAR is not how we evaluate pitchers during the season, but it can be a good, broad gauge of general value.
 
In terms of fWAR, the two sides of a Cole/Gordon/Granite trade match up well. Fangraphs projects Cole to provide 3.8 fWAR in 2018; let's add 3.8 fWAR more for 2019. That makes 7.6 fWAR for the final two team-controlled seasons of Cole coming from Pittsburgh. How much fWAR will the Twins prospects provide? The 2017 midseason KATOH+ projections estimate that Granite will contribute 6.8 fWAR through his six team-controlled MLB seasons, while Gordon will accumulate 6.3 worth of fWAR across his six seasons. Throw in a generous 2.0 fWAR for Jay as a relief pitcher, and the total contribution of the prospects coming from the Twins is 15.1 fWAR.
 
In such a Gerrit Cole trade as proposed above, the Twins would trade away a future 15.1 fWAR in exchange for Cole’s 7.6 fWAR as a starter for the next two seasons.
 
That looks unequal, but posters on the Dozier trade discussion threads last winter found that MLB-for-prospect trades often lean heavily to one side in this way. A risk premium on the speculative nature of unpredictable prospects, perhaps.
 
In any case, the barstool argument in favor of the trade may be more effective than the mathematical or financial analysis. Gordon and Granite are good players, but their production can be replaced. The Twins have Jermaine Palacios and Royce Lewis playing shortstop in the minors behind Nick Gordon, and have Jorge Polanco and other capable shortstops on the Major League team already. As for Granite, I would not count on him getting enough playing time to contribute much fWAR anyway, the maturing young Twins outfield being what it is. And the bottom line is the Twins badly need starting pitching in 2018.
 
Now compare Cole to Darvish. Fangraphs projects Cole for 3.8 fWAR in 2018, while Darvish is projected only for 3.6 fWAR in 2018. Consider that Darvish’s contract will fetch more than $20 million per season for each of the next five or six seasons; Cole will not earn $20 million over the next two seasons together. Moreover, Cole might be motivated to pitch his best in order to increase his value in free agency following 2019.
 
Through the quiet offseason to this point, and assuming Pittsburgh is still interested in a trade, Cole has looked like a solid alternative to Yu Darvish, maybe even better. Cole is younger and will not tie up salary beyond 2019, and might even present a July trade opportunity for the Twins if the 2019 season goes sideways.
 
Beyond 2018 and 2019, the success of the Twins will depend on their ability to develop their own starting pitching. Darvish might help win some games in future seasons, but those wins will cost a lot of money, and possibly at the expense of extending one or two of the Twins young outfielders.
 
Levine’s "negotiation" with Darvish this winter has put me at ease somewhat. Levine's knowledge of Darvish from their days in Texas suggests to me that the Twins are not concerned about Darvish’s health, nor his motivation to pitch after he signs this nine-figure deal. And a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow; figure on that annual salary at the end of Darvish’s contract to not look so bad as it does now, once those latter years finally arrive.
 
I still prefer a trade for Cole, combined perhaps with a signing of Alex Cobb. But if the Twins really do sign Darvish — and my gut gives them a better than 50/50 chance at it — I imagine I will be amazed, thrilled, and fired up for the 2018 season. Such a signing will instantly put Minnesota almost on par with most other teams in the American League, and will give them a dependable arm for the next several seasons.
 
But it's Darvish’s decision to make. If Levine has misjudged Darvish and Darvish chooses to sign with another team, and other subsequent options fail to break for the Twins, the Twins would find themselves going into 2018 without the addition of a single starting pitcher. For a young, talented team that made a strong run in 2017, this would be quite a blow. To borrow a great metaphor from another TwinsDaily poster in another thread, the Twins are playing a game of musical chairs, and if Darvish signs with another team, the Twins might find themselves without a chair when the music stops.
 
Let's hope the personal relationship and commitment Thad Levine and Yu Darvish have together is real. My gut tells me it is.

After my most recent blog entry from Ft. Myers, my wife arrived to take part in the fun in the sun. Unsurprisingly, time spent at the keyboard diminished to near-zero until I got home. This post represents a condensed and abbreviated review of the rest of my stay in Florida.
 
All baseball and no beach makes Ash a dull boy, at least in certain people's eyes. At left, you'll see circumstantial evidence that Friday morning was devoted to Ft. Myers Beach. Also, below, someone there went to the trouble of constructing a lavish sand castle - but parts of it have a suburban pre-fab cookie-cutter look, I think. Call it a Sand McMansion With Moat.
 

 
Back to the back fields with Mrs Ash, for the afternoon games. Jason Wheeler was the starting pitcher for the AAA team, while major-league closer Brandon Kintzler dropped down a couple of notches to pitch the first couple of innings in the AA game. I peeked at the radar gun for Wheeler and he was sitting at 88-89 for his fastball, with off-speed pitches in the low 80s - same ol' Jason, and I wish him well but the current mindset in baseball doesn't give him much hope for even a cup of coffee in the majors by this point.
 

 
Alex Muren was one of my TD Adopt-A-Prospects when I was pretty new to the site, so for sentimental reasons I still am rooting for him to make it past some recent physical ailments and get over the AA hurdle. Here he is, warming up to relieve in the AA game, possibly touching 92-93 with his fastball:
 

 
Dan Rohlfing hit a long home run in the AAA game. I could show you a photo of his home run trot heading toward home, but you kind of know what that looks like already, right? Ahead of him, Engelb Vielma managed to get on base by a fielder's choice, stole second...
 

 
...and made it to third base on an error before the big blast. If he scores a lot of runs this year for Rochester it may be in this style, because I still don't see enough from him to indicate his bat is ready for the majors.
 
Here, during the traditional mid-game milling-about period (the back fields' answer to the Seventh Inning Stretch?), Todd van Steensel rocks the full-beard look:
 

 
Van Steensel lugged that heavy beard out to the AAA mound and seemed to be throwing gas this day, hitting 94 mph several times that I noticed, with off-speed stuff in the mid-80s. Trevor Hildenberger, next, threw at most 89 mph with his sidearm delivery, but at least one of his mix of pitches was down at 74, for quite a range of speeds to be looking out for.
 
On the AA side, Eduardo del Rosario was also in 94 mph territory, with breaking pitches in the 84-87 range. He did well.
 
The major leaguers played a night game against the Orioles, and I attended along with Mrs Ash and a couple of other TDers. Pictured below, outside Hammond Stadium before the game, TC Bear terrorizes a child with his cold lifeless eyes, while older fans flee in panic:
 

 
Just before the game, there was an appearance by the famous Clydesdales, sponsored by a brand of carbonated water I believe. These are really magnificent critters:
 

 
Oh, and as for the game? It was a bad one, as far as I was concerned. Ervin Santana pitched well, and gave up only one run, but he deserved better because the defense behind him was atrocious. There were errors, or poor plays not counted as such, two by Rosario, one each by Sano, Dozier, and Hague. The home team had a big inning with 5 runs, but late in the game when both teams had the minor leaguers in they gave the runs back courtesy of Tonkin and non-roster hopeful Drew Rucinski (who probably lost a fair percentage of his remaining hope), and it was 5-5 after nine. Naturally, they didn't even bother with a tenth inning. Can you see why I, in return, don't bother coming to (and paying for) very many of the big league games in Florida? Here's my one visual highlight from the game: Buxton going first-to-third on a single to right. Even on a fairly routine play, he's a blur, right? It's certainly not due to any inexpertise by the camera operator, I will assure you.
 

 
Saturday. I spent the morning at the back fields, while Mrs Ash shopped. I discovered after snapping a few photos that I had neglected to put the memory card back into the camera, so there are no pictures to share for that part of the trip. The morning was hardly a total loss, as I still enjoyed the A and high-A games, and I got to meet TD luminary Bob Sacamento.
 
After lunch, we rode with Chief and Diehard to Sarasota to see the big league club take on the Orioles. Here are pictures of Ed Smith Stadium - it's a much nicer facility than I was expecting. The press box:
 

 
... and the view of the neighborhood from inside the park:
 

 
... and the capacity crowd:
 

 
The park was so full because it was fireworks night - the only available tickets were Standing Room, but because we arrived early we had good "seats" nearly behind home plate as you can see, and mid-game a kindly usher located four vacant seats for us pretty near the field.
 
The game itself was crummy again (the Twins brought their scrubbeenies, and never put up much of a fight after Santiago gave up a pair of long HRs), and the biggest lowlight for me was when Niko Goodrum, after having impressed me every time I watched him on the back fields, made a putrid play as a late-inning sub at second base. But hey, the fireworks were good, and so was the conversation, so the night was still a Win in my book.
 
Sunday. It was a day off for the minor leaguers, and we'd had our fill of the big club. So, back to the Gulf of Mexico, this time at nearby Bonita Beach. After a morning of sun and sand, Mrs Ash and I moseyed further south to Naples (be sure to ask Chief about renting Segways online there), and spent some pleasant hours at the Botanical Garden there. They have a nice butterfly cage you can walk through
 

 
and an exhibition of sculptures inspired by origami dotting the landscape
 

 
One should believe the several signs informing you that all the wetlands on the site are inviting habitats for alligators. Here is a fine specimen basking in the afternoon sun:
 

 
Dinner was back in Ft Myers at Fancy's, a southern cuisine restaurant where we shared an order of chicken-and-waffles, plus frogs legs and black-eyed peas and collard greens - it's near Hammond and I highly recommend it. After that, we hustled over to the Bell Tower cinema to see "Get Out".
 
For a totally non-baseball day, it was all right, I guess.
 
Monday. My last morning was spent much as the rest of the trip, on the back fields, chatting with Halsey and ChiTown. I snapped some photos of morning calisthenics
 

 

 
You might assume the above were wind sprints, but they were pretty leisurely. After this, morning drills and skills were the focus. Here's catcher Mitchell Kranson receiving a pitch:
 

 
When it was nearly time to go, I wandered up toward the front of the CenturyLink Sports Complex, and thereupon discovered it was Truck Day. Well, not really. Truck Day is an actual thing in Boston - it's the day, early each February, that the trucks are loaded up at Fenway for the drive down to Spring Training - an event that is usually attended by several hundred Red Sox fans, and for which the team puts together a little parade down Van Ness Street complete with Wally the mascot and various other dignitaries. In the throes of never-ending Winter, it's a confident sign that Spring Is On Its Way. Well, this was different. It was the day the players' cars are loaded onto half a dozen or more trucks, for transport up to the Twin Cities. A confident sign that The Regular Season Is On Its Way. Not as catchy, and not made to be a thing for fans particularly, but still pretty cool:
 

 
And with this, I said my goodbyes and took one last look at the fountains, and headed to the airport with Mrs Ash to face rain and snow for a few more weeks in New England. I hope this little series encourages some of you to give Spring Training a try one year.
 

Thursday morning in Fort Myers, I resolved to take some pictures for once. Arrival was a little after 9, in time again for calisthenics (shown, left). Either that, or the prospects were being put to work erecting a new fence.
 
Fellow TD moderator USAFChief arrived shortly after this, and we shared a great day soaking up all that Twins spring training offers at the back fields.
 
After the players were warmed up, instruction began. Sometimes they do a lot of standing and listening at spring training, in this case to coach Ivan Arteaga (only his white-clad shoulder is visible in this shot):
 

 
We moved to the fields in the far back. Fielding practice ...
 

 
... was followed by every position player's favorite activity, batting practice. This day, it was decided to divide the hitters into two teams for a bit of artificial competition. The players opted for Americanos ...
 

 
versus Latinos:
 

 
The hitters judged for each other, regarding "outs" and "hits", and there was more good-natured joshing than I recall at most Twins on-field activities. Good idea, it turns out. (I failed to notice which team won, sorry.)
 
Drills ended early because the two minor league games were scheduled for 11:00. Chief and I visited the team shop, both downstairs and up, and while inside Hammond we took a look at the upstairs environment. An interestingly different view of activities on the major league batting practice field was available from this vantage point:
 

 
We noticed that the minor league games had started, so we sauntered hustled over to the back fields again. When we got to the AA game, guess Hu had dropped in to pay a visit?
 

 
Yep, Chih-Wei Hu, traded in 2015 for ..., well, it will be less contentious and painful if I don't go into that again, here. Hu turned out not to get a very friendly welcome from Twins bats, as you will infer from how he is backing up home in the above photo. However, later in the game he did saw off the bat of Twins prospect Cristian Castro (who reached base anyway on the play):
 

 
I like this shot of Tom Belza taking a swing. Sometimes it must seem to the prospects that the major league field is only one long home run away.
 

 
Over on the AAA field, you Gotta love this Rays prospect, whose first name is Cade by the way:
 

 
And here, Daniel Palka demonstrates that he's not some punch-and-judy hitter, with that high kick. Reminds me of the old saying: "When you're going well, it's a timing mechanism. When you're in a slump, it's a hitch in your swing."
 

 
Here, Karim Kevin Garcia [thank you Seth] goes out to talk with Mason Melotakis, and Melo apparently gives HIM the encouragement.
 

 
And here, Reynaldo Rodriguez is checked at home plate by a trainer after taking a very painful shot to the lower leg on a foul ball. He did not look very steady as he was helped off the field, either. Owie.
 

Greetings from sunny Florida! I'm lucky enough to be in Ft Myers for a week during Spring Training.
 
Today I spent the day mainly on the back fields, watching the minor league prospects. Normally I call these reports Hammond Notes (I must have been under the impression everyone remembers Hammond Organs when I thunk up that one), but Hammond is strictly speaking the major league field here, and it would be clunky to title today's entry CenturyLink Sports Complex Notes. The photo here is of all the dummies watching the major leaguers take batting practice - they don't know what they are missing!
 
I arrived at the crack of dawn, namely 9:30 am, in time to see the players begin their warmup calisthenics. It being the day of a major league game, CenturyLink Sports Complex was charging $10 for parking. Note to anyone intending to follow a plan like mine: in-and-out privileges are not included when you pay to park, and there is no food service outside the main ballpark so bring a lunch (there is a water fountain by the bathroom at the center of the back fields) or else prepare to pay twice for parking - plus it's hard driving out when they're letting everyone else in. Tomorrow and Thursday are away games, so I can get in for free unless I am misremembering protocol.
 

 
The day's drills were enjoyable to watch, and not especially stressful looking for the players either. Pitchers worked on fielding comebackers on Field 5. While nobody embarrassed himself, and there were a few good snags of the balls coming out of the repurposed pitching machine, I didn't spot any budding shortstops in the group either. Here's Lewis Thorpe giving it a try - notice how he keeps the meat hand (AKA moneymaker) safely out of the way. Notice also my skillful use of the camera's autofocus, bringing into crisp view the mesh of the decorative yet functional chain link fence.
 

 
Later, on Field 3, a group of players practiced specialized situations, such as the pitcher covering third on an extra-base hit by a lefthanded pull-hitter against an extreme shift (seriously). It seemed to me there was a lot of dead time in this, where the coach in charge would stop to talk to a small group of players, and the others, far out of earshot, would just be standing around. Maybe this is optimal - I'm not a coach or anything. During this idle time, I spotted catchers Dan Rohlfing, Karim Kevin**** Garcia, and one I wasn't able to deduce even using my vast sleuthing skills, practicing the art of tossing a baseball into the air and catching it in the mesh of their mask. I am confident this important skill will be the deciding factor in Game 7 of the World Series, some year very soon. It's the new Framing.
 

 
Closer to game time, I ventured again to the front of the CenturyLink Sports Complex and met up briefly with ChiTownTwinsFan, who was attending the major league game with family. We'll share a game or three later this week with others who are arriving.
 
After a spartan lunch (which, did I mention, I thought to bring) and a nap resting my eyes while lying down on the metal bleachers in the shade for 5 minutes, 10 minutes tops, I watched the two games against Tampa Bay Rays prospects, which began around 1 pm. Nominal AAA and AA squads were represented, and in the AAA game both teams used 40-man pitchers as their starters. I should tell you at the outset that I switched attention between the two games and did not keep an actual scoresheet for either one, and moreover I have no idea who "won" either contest - I merely took notes of what I thought to be interesting.
 
Matt Belisle went a couple of innings for the Twins and pitched pretty well.
 

 
He was aided by a very fine shoestring catch by Zach Granite in center on the first pitch. Pro tip: call him Granny, like some of his teammates and/or coaches do. Niko Goodrum, playing shortstop, also contributed a nice play in the first, to his right on a ball just out of third baseman's reach - I wrote the latter's name down as Ganache but I can't locate such a player now at my computer. Later on in the AAA game, there was a very nice play by Engelb Vielma at second base, coming in on the ball and making it look easy, to get the batter by a step. All in all, the defense looked good, every time my attention was focused on Field 3.
 
Two-year major-league veteran Matt Andriese of the Rays didn't fare as well. As I said, I didn't keep a scoresheet, but my impression was that he gave up lots of base hits and plenty of runs. In the first, Goodrum doubled to right field (in this game he was making good contact each time I looked), Dan Palka followed with a two-strike opposite field RBI single to left that I overheard someone on the bench call a "nice piece of hitting", and then Mitch Garver followed with a homer to left center.
 

 
On Field 4, the Twins also had a major league reliever serve as starter. I didn't see a lot of Kintzler's work, but a comment from a fellow fan led me to think he wasn't especially effective. I guess we'll all form our own opinions from that tidbit, according to our individual prejudices.
 
Edgar Corcino botched a flyball in left field, and someone brought him a pair of sunglasses in time for the next pitch - oops, Kangaroo Kourt fine, shall we say? Fernando Romero pitched next, and I thought he got cuffed about quite a bit. However toward the end of his first inning he started throwing heat more visibly, and the results improved. But then, he dropped a comebacker to the mound. (I don't recall whether he was in the group practicing that in the morning.) They ended the inning early after that, which sometimes is the custom on the minor league fields, and I thought that meant he was done for the day, but he pitched the next inning, and again was effective. Maybe the Rays had batted around, and the ground rules say that's enough - hey, let the other kids have a turn, willya?
 
Back on Field 3, I saw Vielma have a rough day at the plate, which of course has been the question mark about him as a high-end prospect we want him to become. He's one of the guys I wanted to scrutinze at the plate on this visit, and I am encouraged compared to my expectations that he might swing like Pedro Florimon. No, he "has a notion up there" at the plate - he's not clueless. But, he's also a bit overmatched, particularly on pitches in the upper half of the strike zone, as he tends to swing right through them with disturbing frequency, at least on this day. Being unable to hit certain strikes would not be a good thing in the majors. (He'll also chase, on pitches higher than that, but that seems more correctable.) At least, I didn't see Buxton's Syndrome, namely being unable to recognize off-speed pitches in the dirt, so that's a mild positive. I hope his batting coach can teach him to figure out a few things this year - maybe this ugly photo will help.
 

 
Turning back to the AA game, Randy Rosario showed a good fastball but only so-so control.
 

 
John Curtiss, by contrast, looked very much in control of his good fastball, and seems poised to build at AA upon his successful 2016.
 

 
Minor league free agent utility player (OF, 3B) Tom Belza really got ahold of a pitch late in the game for a 3-run jack. He's not a guy with stellar power numbers in the past, but if he's ready to put things together maybe he can get his cup of coffee or perhaps even a little more - he's someone I'll keep an eye on just for fun, now that he has forced me to pay attention to him. On the other hand, shortly after his homer, he got spun around fielding a hot smash at third base, costing him just enough time to fail to retire the batter, so my snap assessment is he'll remain a longshot.
 
In the AAA game, relief prospect Trevor Hildenberger made easy work of the Rays batters in the final inning. He has what looks like nasty stuff from a variety of angles.
 
In the AA game (are you getting whiplash yet? that's my intention, as it mimics the fun of watching two games on adjacent fields), Nick Gordon got a ground rule* double to left, followed by a long double to center by recent minor league signing Josh Romanski - another promising event today for a long-shot athlete in his prime. You Never Know. Here's Gordon, probably not on the pitch he doubled on.
 

 
An interesting sidelight, at least for me: at the end of his inning of work, Rays prospect pitcher Jairo Munoz came off the field cursing, presumably at himself for the hits against him. Longtime Rays coach R.C. Lichtenstein, who was monitoring the game outside the fence, made a beeline toward the entrance to the dugout. Being a nosy type of person, I trailed him and listened in. He didn't castigate the pitcher for the outburst and instead gave him a pep talk, focusing on some good things that happened on the mound and what he might do differently. I had noticed this coach the last time I was in Ft Myers - he seems like a really good asset to the team, although of course I have little insight into what truly separates one coach from another.
 
Speaking of coaches, Rick ("Brother of David") Eckstein was there in a Twins uniform. I had not noticed the news of his being added. If he were not in uniform, you would never guess he was anything but "just some guy". I bet he gets that a lot. **
 
Anyway, Nick Burdi finished up the AA game, and while I didn't see any real magic, he had a good inning. In the bottom of that inning, Levi Michael got hit in the ribs by a pitch, and he yelped as soon as the ball touched him. Me, it takes several seconds before I know whether I'm hurt. But he was OK, at least to the extent of being able to run the bases normally.
 
WIth the AA game completed, I turned back for the finish of the AAA game. Kyle Winkler closed out the game for the Rays, and though he's a little long in the tooth (26) for a prospect, I was fooled into thinking he might be something better, because he mowed down Palka and then ended the game by making Garver fail to check his swing.
 
Here is a Rays trainer inflicting rotator-cuff damage on a prospect who missed curfew. When will the hazing of rookies cease? The padded table looked comfy, though, and I considered asking whether he accepted walk-ins for theraputic massage.
 

 
After the game, I watched Granite Granny stop to sign an autograph for possibly the politest kid I ever met. And then I saw the Rays' Andrew Velazquez sign for a Rays fan, causing me to wonder if he is a big-time prospect. Um, nope, at least not according to Sickels - guess the kid just had a personal rooting interest.
 
And with that, I'm off to sample the culinary delicacies that Ft Myers is famous for. Wait, what? Is that a thing?***
 
*I know that a ball that bounces over the fence isn't technically part of the ground rules, it's just a baseball rule. It's what we call it, OK?
 
** His brother was a major league veteran - a fringe star even - and like his brother, Rick is way way short.
 
*** Pinchers Crab Shack turned out to have pretty good grouper.
 
**** H/T to Seth Stohs for the correction

Air travel isn't fun and while I am not a frequent flier, I have flown enough no longer to be fascinated by small aisles, nuts and soda, and the people watching. I sat alone in coach and was joined by an delightful Floridian/Minnesotan returning to Minnesota for a funeral. It passed the time and temporarily made me forget about the nasty URI I managed to get in the sunshine state.
 
We looked out the window and saw snow, probably starting somewhere around the Iowa/Minnesota border, maybe north of that. We were back in cold climate, where the jacket I brought with me could be put to use for the first time in seven days.
 
I have been wondering how to summarize the (likely final) trip I made to Fort Myers. There is a bit of melancholy because I think I have figured out the driving--I know the major arteries and where they are in relation to most of the places I want to get to. Now, I probably won't use that information soon, if at all. I feel comfortable at Twins' Spring Training. I mostly know where to go to see what I want to see. I have thoroughly enjoyed watching the young players in the back fields.
 
This year, I met more Twins Daily regulars than ever before. It is great to put a face to a screen name and to know more about a fan than whether he liked Gardy or Rick Anderson. Specifically, I met Halsey Hall, Ashbury John and thrylos, along with three other people who read but don't post. Good guys all, with disparate views on most issues in baseball (and probably world view). I know I owe Ashbury a beer, so I guess I'll have to pay up at Target Field this summer if he and I are at the same game.
 
Some singular thoughts: Aaron Hicks is a bigger man than Torii Hunter. I saw them take BP together and Hicks is definitely taller and probably just as wide as Torii. Speaking of size, Ervin Santana is not a big guy. He is listed at 6'2" 185, and I think especially the weight might be an exaggeration. Ricky Nolasco looks a bit trimmer than last year, perhaps yielding better results because of that. The Twins have a lot of big 'uns--Meyer, May, Tonkin, Pelfrey, Wheeler, Hughes, Gibson to name a few.
 
Hard throwers are not far off: Burdi and Reed both seem to be ticketed for AA, and both throw hard. Meyer will start in Rochester and Oliveros, Tonkin, and more will be laboring in the 'pen.
 
The Twins long-term and short-term future will probably be answered en español. Along with the already arrived Vargas, Santana, Pinto, and Arcia, both the upper and lower minors are filled with Hispanic ballplayers with Berrios, Sano, Polanco, Rosario, and more poised to contribute as soon as this year. In spring training, minor leaguers not participating watch the minor league games. The language amongst the viewers and in the dugouts is principally Spanish.
 
I understand that the Twins are working hard to accommodate this influx. There are more coaches with Hispanic names and the team demands the players take English lessons. The cultural change isn't easy and I hope the club continues to go out of their way to help these young men in a new country with different standards and a different language.
 
I am going with an optimistic view for 2015, based on rolling a bunch of sevens and filling inside straights. The talent is abundant at Century Link Complex. Some way, somehow, that is going to equate to many more wins in 2015 for the Minnesota Twins.

First, the results. Then, how in the heck I got them. We’ll use Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to assess how well the Twins have drafted in the first round from 2003 to 2011 compared to the rest of the league.
 
From 2003-2011, the Twins’ first-round picks were:
23rd in expected WAR per pick. This is an indication of their consistently low draft position due to successful teams and supplemental round picks.
15th in total expected WAR. The Twins make up ground here due to the additional picks they gained in the supplemental round as compensation for losing free agents.
19th in actual WAR generated. The Twins draft picks from 2003-2011 have produced WAR at a lower rate than the league average.
19th in pick efficiency. This most directly ties to “how well they drafted” after accounting for both draft position and total number of picks. I’m defining pick efficiency as the ratio of actual WAR to expected WAR.
 
This has certainly had an impact on the poor results we’ve seen out of the team from 2011-2014. Many other avenues of talent acquisition exist, but for teams like the Twins and many others, the acquisition of amateurs plays a large role. The draft goes much deeper than the first round, but failing to get significant production there can be quite the challenge to overcome.
 
It’s amazing how a Mike Trout or a Clayton Kershaw can make your team look good at first round draft picks, as seen by the Angels and Dodgers. The Red Sox did poorly from 2006 going forward as shown in Parker’s recent analysis, but they get credit for Jacoby Ellsbury and a few others here. The Diamondbacks did well, but traded away Scherzer, J. Upton and Stephen Drew – their top 3 performing picks. You might also notice a pretty strong correlation between the teams at the bottom of the list and the teams that have stunk in recent years. Sure would hate to be a Phillies fan – that organization has managed to get negative WAR out of their first rounds picks – yow-ouuch.
 
The Twins didn’t hit any homers with their first round picks in this timeframe. However, expectations needed to be tempered in the first place. They’ve underperformed even to that lowered standard, but this analysis doesn’t show them to be among the very worst either.
 
Smack-dab middle of the pack in total expected WAR + below average pick efficiency + trading away the draft pick that represented over a third of the actual WAR generated (Garza) for a terrible left fielder = very little visible MLB production for the Twins out of the 2003-2011 first round picks.
 


 
*****************
 
Now, for those so inclined, the approach.
 
Over the last decade, a number of extremely smart statistical researchers have explored the value of draft picks. I am not one of them. For simplicity, I decided to use the figures created by Andrew Ball (which are quite similar to others out there):
Tier 1 – Pick #1 Expected WAR = 11.83
Tier 2 – Pick #2 Expected WAR = 10.09
Tier 3 – Pick #3-7 Expected WAR = 5.37
Tier 4 – Pick #8-15 Expected WAR = 5.21
Tier 5 – Pick #16-30 Expected WAR = 2.65
Tier 6 – Pick #31-60 Expected WAR = 1.41
 
It is important to note that the expected WAR figures represent only the first 6 years of a player’s career. This is done with the expectation that teams are paying market rates for players that have reached free agency and their draft value has been expended. Data on first round draft picks and the WAR they have generated was collected from Baseball Reference.
 
I wanted the results here to reflect on the struggles from 2011-2014, so I intentionally didn’t go any further back than 2003 because those players had largely used up their first six years early in that period or before it. An argument could be made to include the 2002 class since most of the big names wouldn't have reached free agency until the 2013 season (Greinke, Hamels, Cain, BJ Upton), but I’ve excluded them. Note that this leaves out Denard Span from 2002 and Joe Mauer from 2001, both resounding successes of first-round picks.
 
With our time frame selected and the expected values defined, I tried to account for the fact that the more recent draft years are unlikely to have utilized all of their pre-free agency years by discounting the expected WAR for those more recent draft classes. The expected WAR in the first 6 years for the 2007-2011 draft classes were reduced by the following factors:
2011 = 1/6
2010 = 2/6
2009 = 3/6
2008 = 4/6
2007 = 5/6
This factoring isn’t perfect, as players come up at different rates, but the ratios of actual to expected WAR within the draft class stay reasonably steady at these rates. This discounting is actually a benefit for teams that have already gotten MLB production from these recent draft classes, which seems fine to me with our goal of assessing impact on the 2011-2014 seasons. We also might get some WAR from the older draft classes beyond their first 6 years. To adjust for this, I looked at the individual players in the 2003-2005 classes with more than 5 career WAR, looked up their stats on BRef and reduced their WAR by any amounts earned beyond 6 years (this sounds like a lot of work, but it was really only like 20 guys).
 
In looking through the data, I’m satisfied that we’re at least close enough to get a good gauge of team drafting performance. If you’ve made it this far, I’d be happy to share the Excel file with anyone interested (send me a PM with your email). I’ve also done some analysis specific to the Twins’ picks and whether or not they made it to MLB in relation to league averages, so I might follow up with that.
 
I hope the info here provides some help in assessing the Twins’ recent first round draft performance. Thanks in advance for your comments, insights and feedback.
 
Photo credit to Mizzou Media Relations