Rod Carews Birthday

Hello, fellow humans! My name is William Malone IV. Son of William Malone III. And I come with great news! The Minnesota Twins will be playing a spring training baseball game against the Atlanta Braves tomorrow.
What an exciting time of year this is. And the best way to celebrate these exciting times are with some bold(ish) predictions for the 2025 season.
1. Griffin Jax strikes out triple digits
The Twins haven't had a primary relief pitcher strike out 100 or more batters in a single season since Juan Rincón fanned 106 in 2004. In the years since, nobody has come closer than Jax did in 2024. The Air Force product struck out 95 opponents over 71.0 innings pitched last season, and it's possible that the Twins position in the standings cost him the opportunity to reach the 100 strikeout milestone. With the playoffs out of reach, Rocco Baldelli opted out not use Jax in their final three game series of the regular season. It was well earned rest for Jax, who has logged the fifth most relief innings in the Majors since the start of 2022.
2. The Twins steal 100 bases for the first time since 2012
100 is a nice round number, so we'll make it a bit of a theme. This sounds like a big leap coming off a year where the Twins only stole 65 bases, but they have the pieces to pull this off. Minnesota didn't lose much speed over the off-season. Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Kyle Farmer, Carlos Santana and Manuel Margot collectively stole nine bases in 548 games last year. Players like Austin Martin (7 SB in 93 G), Brooks Lee (3 SB in 50 G) and Edouard Julien (6 SB in 94 G) can help add to the total simply by taking away extra at-bats from some of those departed players. Harrison Bader also stole 17 bases for the New York Mets last year. For this to be even possible, Willi Castro would need to get back to his 2023 form where he stole 33 bases. The utility man swiped just 14 bags in 2024.
3. Joe Ryan is an All-Star
Joe Ryan was pitching so well before a shoulder strain in August ended his season seven weeks early. He had the fourth best strikeout-to-walk ratio and eight lowest WHIP among pitchers who started at least 20 games last season. The tools are very clearly in place. As is the case with several players on the Twins, he just needs to be healthy and on the field to earn the accolades. 
4. Carlos Correa wins the Silver Slugger
Maybe this goes under the radar a bit, but Carlos Correa has the fifth highest OPS among shortstops since joining the Twins in 2022. And that's with a lackluster 2023 season dragging his numbers down a bit. The man produces at the plate. He just needs to be healthy enough to get the necessary at-bats. 2024 seemed like it was poised to be a career year. Correa had a .900 OPS for the first time since the ultra juiced ball year of 2019, but his foot injuries resurfaced and he didn't play at all between July 12th and September 14th. He wasn't putting up empty stats either. Correa hit .314 in high leverage situations, according to Baseball Reference.
5. Max Kepler has a solid year in his new home
The bar for "solid year" will be different for everyone, but the prediction here is that Kepler adjusts to post-Twins life better than several other Bomba Squad-era teammates who have since been castoff. Kepler is going to a really good hitters park where he'll have a lot of protection up and down the lineup, and he's also been better than some of these other pieces in recent years. What Eddie Rosario did in the 2021 NLCS was fun to watch, but he still has an 83 OPS+ with -8 defensive runs saved since leaving Minnesota. Kepler's career low for OPS+ in a single season is only 91. Mitch Garver is another Bomba Squad player who went off and won a World Series with a new team, but there's only so much value you bring as a DH and occasional fill-in piece at catcher. The other players to look at from that core are Jorge Polanco and Miguel Sano, who have done even less than the previously mentioned players.
6. Ty France does not make Twins opening day roster, Jose Miranda starts at first base
Ty France has a non-guaranteed contract, so the Twins would be able to release him at the end of camp for no money lost. The only thing it would've cost them is a 40-man placeholder for six or seven weeks. Minnesota had a similar arrangement with Anibal Sanchez in 2018. He signed a Major League contract in the off-season, but the money was only guaranteed if he made the opening day roster. Anyway, it's time for Jose Miranda to assume a full time role. He's moved around between first base, third base and designated hitter during his time with the Twins. After bouncing back from a poor showing in 2023, a strong showing in the Grapefruit League might be all Twins management needs to give him his first full time role.
7. Jorge Alcalá continues his hot and cold career
There is no denying that Jorge Alcalá has talent. Every Twins fan who has watched him knows he can be special when pitching at his best. But his whole career has been filled with these ups and downs. It's an on again, off again relationship that rivals Ross and Rachel. Last season was no different. Alcalá owned a 1.63 ERA through 35 appearances at the end of July. His ERA was 6.41 across 19 outings in August and September. His worst outing was in an August 18th loss to Texas that many point to as the beginning of the Twins late season slide. Alcalá is turning 30 in July. He's been a big leaguer since 2019. At this point, there's no reason to expect anything different. He's going to give the Twins some good stretches, and some bad ones.
8. Twins trade for Framber Valdez at the deadline
Houston doesn't bend over backwards to keep their own guys. Just look at the laundry list of core pieces they've let go; Correa, Springer, Keuchel, Morton, Tucker, Bregman, Pressly. There was even a point where they let Justin Verlander sign with the Mets, only to get him back via trade three months later. If you're not Jose Altuve, they are willing to let you walk out the door and call up their next prospect in line. For that reason, a 31-year old Framber Valdez might be available as a rental. Especially if the Astros can't withstand losing Tucker, Bregman and Pressly all in one off-season. This just might be a re-set year for the organization as they wait for their next wave of prospects.
9. Chris Paddack gives Twins 20-25 solid starts
It's impossible to bank on Chris Paddack for a full 30+ start season with his injury history, but he can still be a solid fifth starter option. Think about the role Kenta Maeda played for the Twins in 2023; 20 starts with a 4.23 ERA. Maybe Paddack won't be quite that good, but Minnesota would sign up for anything close to that. And the 2023 Twins probably didn't have as much starter depth behind Maeda to supplement the time he was down. That was a team who was running Dallas Keuchel out there at points. Fans probably feel better about the Woods-Richardson, Festa, Matthews trio of depth than the shell of Dallas Keuchel. 
10. The Twins win 95 games and take the AL Central
Minnesota was on a 92 win pace as late as August 17th last year, and then the season went off the rails. It's always easy to blame pitching for a collapse like that, and the Twins certainly had problems with their staff. Joe Ryan was hurt, their trio of rookie starters all seemed to hit a wall, and the bullpen was falling apart. But despite all that, the bats were still a bigger issue down the stretch. From August 18th onward, the Twins scored just 137 runs. Only the White Sox and Nationals scored less over that span. In short, everything went wrong over those final 38 games. But sometimes, you need to trust bigger samples. Believe in what you saw for 124 games. Not 38. Even without doing much this off-season, Minnesota is still a very good ball club.

It's easy to have hope when all is in front of you, and there's nothing left to lose.
The 2025 Twins stand at an intoxicating crossroads. And no, I do not include the Pohlads in this equation - I'm referring to whichever 26 players end up being asked to bear the burden of taking this team to the postseason over the next few months, payroll and franchise financials be damned.
Given the status of things, this should logically be a rebuilding year. In fact, let's take stock of recent events- after putting to bed the cruelest streak in sports, and finding themselves with the greatest opportunity in 30 years(!) to seize the fanbase's imagination, the decision was made to not only *refuse* to do so, but to instead lower the current team's payroll, and ensure a regression in their fortunes. It was, without argument, the greatest subversion of anticipation that I can recall in my lifetime as a sports fan. It is the franchise equivalent of self-harm - to actively shrink away from the responsibility of healing the trauma of the Twins fanbase. To reject this call was to deny the very reason one should have for bothering to own a team in the first place. To take the promise we had all collectively tasted for the first time since 2004 and instead poison it, cementing the acid in our veins we had generated through our fandom, rather than exorcise it once and for all. 
These decisions helped to sow the seeds for what we saw transpire in 2024. A promising squad who knew the quality of their craft. Flashes of brilliance that refused to stay buried, even if they could sometimes be lost in the quagmire that was the unyielding streakiness plaguing the roster. Royce Lewis naively proclaiming that he "didn't do slumps", only to be patiently reminded by the fates that he, too, wasn't immune to misfortune. The constant roll of the dice that was the health of the team's core. And once again, a roster that only needed the support of the Pohlads to ensure the cavalry would arrive when needed - only to find, come the trade deadline, that reinforcements were not coming through the clubhouse door. The burden would be fully placed on the shoulders of an already depleted staff to carry our hopes across the finish line, and it didn't matter how obvious it was that it wouldn't be enough - that was the end of it, in more ways than one. The collapse that followed was gargantuan. In many ways, it was undeserved. None of this should have even been on the table. And yet, it transpired in the open for all of us to experience. And then, weeks later, those responsible announced it was time for them to wash their hands of it all by placing the team on the auction block.
Where does that leave the Twins in 2025? The fanbase? The players? It's an impossible question when there's no telling who the absentee landlords will be replaced with or when that substitution will happen. Can you be excited about a squad when you know, deep inside, that there is every reason that its construction should be better than it is, if not for a refusal from the owners to do the bare minimum? How do you cheer for a team when to do so is to accept the cynicism and banality that is the cravenness of professional sports in the 21st century?
But if I could ask one thing of you, it would be to attempt to shut out the noise that capitalism screams at us in this day and age, and think about what's possible with the players and coaches already here. To read FanGraphs and understand the numbers suggest is possible - if not probable - for the Twins in 2025 is to be provoked to get one's hopes up again. To foresee a year where the pitching is dominant, the lineup rises to the heights that we already know is within reach, and where October baseball isn't just a thin layer of icing on an already flimsy layer cake. 
It feels strange to try and aggregate how the world feels about this team in this moment. The fanbase is (rightly) agitated over the limbo the organization currently finds itself in, preventing it from moving forward. The pitching staff (and especially the bullpen) are projected to be one of the best in baseball, while power rankings still plunge the Twins to as far down as the bottom third of the league. It's enough to send one hurtling deep into a bleak emotional spiral, but only if you haven't already been down this road many times before. Because, honestly, this location is the address where Twins Territory has lived for more years than I can remember. A team everyone seems to understand is capable of wonderful things, but refuses to come to the consensus that those things are likely to ever happen.
It is a battle I find myself in as spring training starts its trudge towards the regular season. As a former poker player, I am reminded of a thought exercise I was taught to help combat the frustrations of losing a big hand - 
Look at your chip stack. Look at your cards. Forget what just happened and how well you were doing before this moment. Imagine in the previous hand that instead of losing, you just doubled up, and that you are in twice as good of a position as you were before. How would you feel in that moment? Because the numbers match exactly the situation you're saddled with in real life. Think and play as if you've just doubled up, and if you truly have the skills to do so, you'll do just fine.
The Twins have the pieces to astound a lot of observers. It'll require some luck and unexpected consistency, but there is no reason to believe such an outcome isn't in its grasp. I might be guilty of rose-colored glasses, but I would forever prefer that to any other perspective.
Here's to 2025, and this roster of neglected misfits running roughshod over the expectations of all who dare to believe that they aren't capable of great things. They have at least one believer in their cheering section, and I hope that number is far greater than myself.
If one cannot believe that this is the year, then I don't understand the point of baseball.

I ran across an article, in a completely non-sports context (ethical choices), that fairly well sums up my view on using analytics wisely.
Have a read, see what you think.  I'm not going to short-circuit discussion by providing a summary; if no discussion occurs, so be it.
https://www.goodthoughts.blog/p/good-judgment-with-numbers

I am not sure if there is anything serious with the Kepler injury, but now is the time to make a move.
The Twins schedule has them playing NOBODY over .500 until after the Allstar break!! Now is the time to call up Wallner and Lee, let them continue their string recent offensive surges against AAAA competition to build confidence for the second half.
DFA Farmer, there really is ZERO reason he is still on this club!!  I have hear the veteran presence in clubhouse thing, but we still have Correa, we still have Santana, while he hasnt enjoyed great success we still have Buxton, and who cares about veteran presence with young leadership skills of Lewis. He needs to be gone. plug Brooks Lee into 2B. Use Castro as the super utility guy.
While Kepler hasn't been HORRIBLE, he is obviously no longer a part of our long term future. Best case is he has a minor neck tweak that a IL stint coudl help, this would allow us to bring up Wallner for lightning in a bottle. If he continues hot streak then RF is his, if he flounders then we can go back to Kepler on his return.
While Wallner is tearing it up, he is still striking out about 1/3 of his AB's. against AAA pitching, so if he comes up and continues with the high level K's (and dosent bring power along with it) then as mentioned after DL stint you go back to Kepler.
 
But if ...  IF... Wallner and Lee can bring their potential, and you put them in a lineup with Correa, Lewis,  the resurgent Miranda (.284 avg  & .844 over last 30 games) and the coming around Santana (.305 avg & .920 OPS over last 30 games) now we have a pretty potent lineup.

Hi folks. I am Al from SoDak. I have been reading Twins Daily since its inception and always thought of contributing. Well, here I go.
I am a collector of Twins baseball cards. About 10-15 years ago, I made it a goal to get at least one card from every Twins player who had a card. That goal seems to have morphed into getting each Twins card for every Topps set (and a few other brands here and there). I currently have more than 2,400 cards from about 750 unique players. I have a plan for a series of posts to review and comment on each year’s set of Twins cards. But by no means will this be completed in one initial post. I plan to cover each year in order of the years I have completed. So, I will start with my first completed set (1963 Topps) and go forward to other completed sets. As I continue with my series, I will continue with my collecting. Hopefully when I get the most recent set, I will have more of the earlier sets completed and can loop back and comment on those. Hopefully we all find this an interesting exercise.
To start with I am going to give my opinion of the best card. This will likely be one of the most expensive cards but not necessarily the most expensive. I don’t want to have too many Killebrews, Olivas, Carews, etc. I will also give my opinion of my personal favorite card. This might be based on the look of the card, or a story behind the card or player. Finally, I will discuss the card of the most obscure player in my opinion. This will hopefully include a little research and history of this player so that we can learn more about lesser-known players. I anticipate the obscure player part ending up as the most detailed and longest part of the post.
We’ll see how this goes.
1963 TOPPS
This colorful set is one my favorites from the 1960s. The cards are 2.5” x 3.5” which has been the standard card size since 1957. Each card contains a larger color image of the player with a smaller black and white picture within a circle at the bottom of the card. The player’s name, team and position are on a colorful thick border at the bottom. The league leader cards and many of the rookie cards are of the notorious “floating head” design. This 1963 set contains the Tony Oliva #228 rookie card amongst its 33 Twins cards.

THE BEST
Many sources list the Oliva rookie card and Harmon Killebrew #500 as the most expensive Twins cards in the set. The Oliva card is of the often ridiculed “floating heads” design, so I am going to lean to the Harmon Killebrew card the best card. Hopefully this doesn’t start a trend of too many Killebrews.

PERSONAL FAVORITE
I like the Bob Allison #75 where he is shown in a solid batting pose. Jim Kaat (#165) stares down the camera at the start of a wind-up. To me, that’s a good card and made better by the fact that I was able to get mine autographed at TwinsFest a few years back. I also like that the AL Home Run Leaders #4 has Killebrew front and center as the top dog from 1962. The autograph on the good-looking Jim Kaat card puts that card on top for me as my personal favorite.
                     
MOST OBSCURE PLAYER
My choice as the most obscure Twins player included in the 1963 Topps baseball card set is George Banks (card #564).

Interestingly, the Twins had five rookie cards included in the 1963 Topps set. Four of those cards were like the Oliva rookie with “floating heads” design, but one rookie player got his own card – yes, Mr. Banks. Why? Well, he was signed in 1957 by the New York Yankees and had minor league success. George Banks hit 82 minor league home runs through 1960 (on his way to 223 home runs in 11 minor league seasons). In 1961 the Twins selected him in the Rule 5 draft, the mechanism that led to the Twins obtaining Shane Mack and Johan Santana (trade) many years later.
George Banks played mainly 3rd Base and Outfield. He played a total of five seasons in MLB, splitting his time between Minnesota and Cleveland. He was a piece in a key trade – He and Lee Stange were traded to Cleveland for Mudcat Grant who we all know won 21 games in the World Series year of 1965. Mudcat won Game 6 nearly all by himself. He led the Twins to a 5-1 win in this elimination game. He allowed only six hits and was also a force in the batter’s box with a 3-run home run.
Banks could never match his minor league prowess in the big leagues. His WAR was 0.3. He only got 203 at bats in MLB. He played 63 games in 1963, but only 25 in 1964. After the trade he played in a total of 17 games over parts of three seasons in Cleveland.
But George Banks did have a nice 1963 rookie card. The card shows him squaring to bunt which contrasts with his minor league propensity to his home runs. Love it!
So there it is. My first entry in what could end up being a long series about baseball cards and the Minnesota Twins. Hopefully I get some positive feedback, encouragement, and views to keep me motivated.
If you disagree with my opinions, I would love to see your opinions, criticisms, and suggestions in the comments below. Don’t be too hard on me. Let’s have fun with this!

I read today that a lot of fans are annoyed at the Twins ownership because they are unwilling to take on additional salaries in order to increase their chances of winning a World Series.
As a retired CFO of a $14M business with 150 employees, I can vouch for the sanctity of an annual budget.
Preparing a budget takes great knowledge of your business. You need individuals who can anticipate what the businesses expenses for the next year will be. That includes taking into consideration what the cost of utilities, insurance, employee healthcare, the raises you would like to give to your employees, hot dogs and beer and other inflationary increases will be.
When you have created an expense budget (not including player costs), you should then work out your revenue budget. Here you will estimate what you believe are the expected revenues from ticket sales, concessions, TV revenue, etc. When creating these estimates it is important to budget conservatively. A good budget will contain income estimates that are attainable. Additionally your expenses should be budgeted accurately with extra funds built in just in case there are unexpected obligations.
You will now have a revenue budget and an expense budget, still to come are your team’s salaries and benefits, and the organization’s profit goal. The basic format becomes:
+Revenue
-Expenses
=Net Income
-Player Compensation
=Profit
Now let’s throw in some numbers -
$500,000,000 – Revenue
-$300,000,000 – Expenses
$200,000,000 – Net Income
$ x,xxx,xxx – Player Compensation
$ 50,000,000 – Budget Profit
In order to balance out the budget Player Compensation would be $150,000,000.
This is what the Twins administration will go through every year when determining how much money they should allocate for players salaries.
What can change the player budget? A couple of things can happen: 1) ownership can decide that rather than having a return on their investment (profit) of $50,000,000, they will only expect $25,000,000. This can afford them an opportunity to allocate additional budget dollars to player salaries, or 2) they can review their original budget data and determine that some expenses may end up being greater or less than they had originally thought, this difference (which can be a plus or minus) can be used to add or subtract from player salaries, or 3) they can review the revenue budget and make changes to the player budget based on getting more or less than expected. A good example is getting less TV Revenue. A loss of $15,000,000 from Bally gets adjusted by lowering the player budget by the same $15,000,000. Of course it could happen that ticket sales are strong and halfway through the year they feel that ticket sales will be $10,000,000 over what they budgeted. In this case player salaries will have additional funds to use to make changes at the trade deadline.
Naturally, as a fan, I would like an unlimited player salary budget. But as an accountant, I understand that a sound business is based on profitability. Businesses that consistently lose money will eventually run into financial difficulties. When this happens most fans will say, why doesn’t ownership throw in additional cash flow to help out the business. But the whole idea of owning a business is to make an annual profit and to built up the equity in the team so that one day in the future, you can sell the team for a nice profit.
True most baseball teams are owned by people with significant personal wealth, but they are limited to how much they would be willing to lose of their wealth in order for the team to succeed.
There are only so many Steve Cohen’s and George Steinbrenner’s and there are a lot of owners who need the team to be profitable in order for them to succeed.
I think the Pohlad’s are wise to operate the Twins as a business and not a hobby and it is wise to hold the line on spending to what the business can afford.
This is a very simple example is only meant as an aid to showing the complicated process of putting together an annual budget and how teams may determine what they can spend on players.
 
I am not taking a side in discussions, only pointing out the importance of a business preparing a budget and trying to maintain financial sanity.

Alright folks listen up I have some thoughts I want to get off my chest and I'm digging deeper then a home run hit by the REAL TC Bear at the Metrodome so buckle up.  In this essay, I will explore and evaluate Carlos Correa's performance as assistant general manager, 2 years in.
On January 11th 2023 a day that will live in infamy Carlos Correa who was turned down because of medicals by the giants and Mets came crawling back to Minnesota because no one else would take him and he got 200 million buckaroos to boot.  And that fateful day he was dubbed "assistant general manager of the Minnesota Twins" by Thad Levine and Scott Boris.  Miriam Webster defines assistant as "a person who assists someone" general as "not confined by specialization or careful limitation" and manager as "a person who conducts business or household affairs" so that means Correa is someone who assists the business of the Twins that is not confined by specialization.
Now I have a gripe to pick with that definition as Correa is confined by specialization he's just a defensive specialist stop me if you heard this before but he's just another Mark Belanger in the field and he shouldn't hit higher then seventh.  But I suppose that's besides the point because these days there changing grammar rules to fit what people are more comfortable with.  Just the other year the Associated Press (whom I would never want to associate with) said that "less" and "fewer" are interchangeable now. Folks,, that's fewer then ideal if you ask me.  Fewer refers to quantifiable entities but less refers to things you can't "count."  Theres less sand on the beach but fewer grains of sand I'll just leave it at that if you catch my drift.
But I digress.  With Correa's new title as assistant general manager (abbreviated to AGM henceforth) comes responsibility.  Just like Uncle Ben told Luke Skywalker, with Great Power Comes Great Responsibility.  So where is his assistant general manager responsibility when cheap pohlad issues a edict from on high that the Twins are cutting payroll.  The pocket protectors at the Athletic reported that it could be as low as 125 million but with how buddy-buddy those clowns are with the owners, I would guess it will be closer to 115 DESPITE the taxpayer funded stadium.
If Carlos Correa is really the AGM, why hasn't he stepped up to the plate and forced cheap pohlad to recant his ways?  A true leader would walk right up to that man and demand a bigger payroll, even if that meant he got cut and didn't get his 30 million dollars a year.  It's called integrity.  My first job I walked into the managers office and said "sir I would like a job" and look at me now I'm the floor supervisor.  It's called initiative.  cheap pohlad might even like his gumption.  The Twins are paying Correa enough that he shouldn't be afraid to step up and do the right thing but I guess that's just how baseballer are raised these days when they don't live in fear of Bob Gibson or Christy Mathewson or Eddie Cicotte putting one in there earhole.
Speaking of doing the right thing, the Twins never bunt except for scrappy infielder Jorge Polanco and my favorite player Michael A. Taylor who sneakily plays the game the right way.  Why hasn't Correa sat Baldelli (the "field manager") and told him "No Rocco, we're playing smallball now.  Its not 2019 anymore.  If it was good enough for the 1927 Yankees than why isn't it good enough for the 2024 Twins."  As AGM, he is Rocco's boss.  He's a puppet for the front office anyway and that includes Carlos.
And another thing, speaking about bunting.  How come bunting is only placed around the stadiums after the fourth of July (Independence Day).  I really like those little half-circle flags.  They really tie the field together and it reminds us of the greatest country God ever invented where we play the greatest Sport He ever invented,  It's like how there's no jobs for pumping gas anymore.  We just take things away that are useful and good to streamline the process, which is probably why Driveline is personally snipping 14 year olds' UCLs so they have to get Tommy John surgery.
Anyway, I want to point out some hypocrisy from our friend Carlos.  He exerted his influence to make signings like his old Astros friend Christian Vazquez and also Dallas Keuchel.  But he's refusing to put his foot down and challenge cheap pohald on one little thing?  And don't come at me siting things like "The Ballys's Situation" because that's a load of hogwash.  If Derek and Thad "the smartest guys in the room" couldn't see this whole thing come crashing down then why are they paid for?  But of course the whole Ballys's situation blew up in everyone's faces and now we have half the screen taken up by bally betting lines (there a gambling company like the Bellagio).  But of course you can gamble during the baseball game from your smart TV but Pete Rose, an upstanding public figure, bet on some games that he had control over and made in-game decisions based on whether or not he bet on that game and now he can't get into the Hall of Fame?  What a joke.
Speaking of fairness and equality, [Hi, this is Greggory's wife, Earnestine.  I have been editting this post and fixing type-os for Greggory, but I'm making the executive decisions to omit this paragraph.  While his head was in the right place, Greggory's calls to rename singles to "gentleman singles" and walks to "lady singles" in an effort to promote gender equality probably didn't come off in the right way.]
And so that brings me to my next point.  Carlos Correa needs to also reconsider the money he's making.  Instead of trading a team legend like all-American boy Max Kepler (who I would let date my daughter) to shave salary, maybe Carlos could consider a paycut.  Based on Fan Graphs WAR he was only worth about 15 million dollars which is a kings ransom for Buxton but okay for Correa, so maybe he should except the paycut down to 15 million.  IF he's as committed to winning as he said then maybe he's willing to do so.  It's what leaders do.  Or maybe he could restructure his contract a la Kurt Cousins.
I once had a offer to double my salary and jump over to the meat packing plant but I know the value of loyalty and look at me now I'm the floor supervisor.  So that's what's got this on my mind like a Sheboygan sausage, which reminds me whatever happened to the Hormel W***** Winner Row?  I never got one but I always wanted a free DomeDog.
This winter, if Carlos Correa wants to prove that he has earned the title of AGM, well then it's time to start putting the money where his mouth is.  It's just sad to watch this childrens' game become a big money grab for everyone involved.  Sure, back in the day you had your Chick Gandils and Billy Mahargs, but they were the exception not the rules.  Owners used to be willing to spend on their teams.  Remember the time that Tommy Lasorda beat up the San Diego Chicken?  But the game we used to love is now dominated by launch velocity and exit angle and seam shifted wake and they don't give away physical ticket stubs either.  I can only add it to my Apple Wallet which is the only billfold you can't put in your back pocket or else it will break.
Everything is just too streamlined and money focused these days which is probably why downtowns don't decorate for Christmas anymore.  I miss seeing wreaths and tinsel and statues of Santa now the only place I can go to get that ambiance is the hellhole that is Duluth, MN.  But even Duluth makes they're downtown look like that all year.  It's like they waited for Bing Crosby's song Winter Wonderland to hit the public domain then made a town around it.  just another sign of the corporatization of middle America.  Speaking of winters in Minnesota why didn't they build a roof on Target Field? Probably never expected to have a playoff game in October which is why cheap pohlad only invests enough to pretend to compete like signing Carlos Correa when they could have signed 42 minimum-salary players for the same money.  And don't even start with me about how having a roof on Target Field would mean fans can't see the Minnesota skyline because let me tell you about downtown Minnesota. Ever since [Earnestine again; we are going to skip this part].
Which brings me to my final point and thesis.  I think that the Twins rolled out the red carpet for Correa and he didn't deserve it.  Beyond the salary, he also got "Star Wars Night" instituted and I'm here to say that he's not even a real nerd because Kylo Ren and the Sequel Series are NOT cannon.  I consider myself more of a Trekkie myself they really have some good messages about inclusivity unlike Star Wars which is all about space wizards for children committing terrorism against the state.  But Correa has probably never even read Asimov or knows the rules to robots.
So the Twins did all that work to bring him in and the fans have nothing to show for it.  Just another Hershel Walker trade and Parise and Suter.  When will he earn his salary and demand cheap pohlad invest in this team?  Probably never.  Instead they'll probably trade all there good players for prospects who will just be traded again once there good.  And speaking of good I have one last thought.  I really miss seeing Mary Tyler Moore on the tube. She was a real fox and they don't make women like that [except for my loving wife Earnestine].  It's just frustrating that people these days don't value the same things anymore.  It says a lot about the state of our country, if you ask me.

Thanks, folks. 
A few weeks ago, I wrote a blog inviting feedback for some paint schemes for the wall in a room that has transitioned from our youngest son's bedroom to our office. Alas, he got married and moved to North Carolina -- we like the married part, just wish he didn't live so far from northern Indiana. That post is here: https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/23701-help-design-my-man-cave/ 
The goal was to combine a Fathead with some shelving to create a space to display the set of Tony Oliva baseball cards I've gathered, along with some others. I invited feedback to the following ideas: 
 
And the one I chose was...
No. 6. 
So, next up was using a friend's table saw to rip some MDF board into 5/8" x 5/8" strips, followed by cutting a quarter-inch angled groove to hold the cards. Then Mrs. IT took over, handling the priming and painting. Finally, my brother-in-law, much more adept at such projects than me, helped me stick the Fathead and place and mount the strips. 
Here's what I got: 

 
I'm pretty pleased. Mrs. IT needs to do a little touch-up painting, touching up the screw holes and a few more spots. What you see here are a complete set of Topps, Kelloggs and Hostess Oliva cards on the left, plus a couple extra odds and ends. On the upper right are my Killebrew cards, with Carews underneath. Neither of those are complete.
Eventually, I'll tighten them up so I can add some other favorites from over the years -- Hrbek, Puckett, Gaetti, etc. Probably need to get a Wynegar and some others. It may not take long for Lewis to make an appearance on the IT Wall of Fame. And depending on how full I want to make the space, I may also include a few non-Twin favorites and/or legends from over the years, namely Brock, Aaron, Clemente, etc. I don't have any that are particular valuable (and none graded), but on the wall will at least bring more enjoyment than in boxes under the bed. The total space is about 84 inches by 40 inches.
Thanks to @Cornholio, @Rod Carews Birthday, @Wyotwinsfan, @davidborton, @DocBauer, @gil4, @nclahammer, @Original_JB, @dcswede, @Khaddie and @Puckett34 for great insights and suggestions.
I was originally thinking I'd go with No. 8, but after coming up with a number of mockups, I was starting to lean toward No. 6 by the time I posted. So to get a couple early affirmations of that option helped firm up that decision. Some other comments:
There were some good suggestions that would have given it a much more professional feel (and would have been beyond my capability or cost more than I was prepared to spend. A couple folks cautioned about covering up too much of the Fathead. With that encouragement, I did move the strips out a bit. They end up overlapping by about three inches, rather than the six inches I originally planned. I think that was an improvement, so thanks for those suggestions. If I was to do anything different with the layout, I'd give each row another quarter to half inch of space (starting at the bottom) to push the top row up to have even less overlap with the letters.  A few people had ideas for some additions, suggesting some autographed photos, Homer Hankies, etc. (And speaking of, I need to track down one of this year's.) I do plan some of those things with the next steps. The exterior wall of the room has about 43 inches on each side of a window, so I'm thinking of putting in a relatively high shelf for the four Wheaties/Kelloggs boxes (still full) from 1987 and 1991. I may do a second shelf with some autographed balls, but I really don't have any significant ones. I do have some other things, however, such as a Rod Carew RC Cola can and an Oliva-signed cap, etc. I'm only a few years from retirement, so I'll need to consider where to go with two jerseys. I'm perhaps the only person on TD with a game-used Travis Miller jersey. I never thought I'd buy a gamer of anyone, but when you're in the team store and see one with your last name on it, it's tough to resist. My congregation gifted me another jersey when transitioned from pastoring there to another ministry opportunity. In total, I have another 10 or so linear feet of wall space on this half the room to use for such things. Mrs. IT gets the other side of the room. So again, thanks. If anyone heads through northern Indiana on the toll road and wants to stop off for a visit, I'd be glad to show it in person! 😃
 

And while I'm at it, I do have another spot in the house that folks might find interesting. I've been fortunate enough to have been able to combine some work-related travel with vacations and have been to all 30 current stadiums (plus a dozen or so that have been closed)*. I spent some time to create some collages from photos I've taken along the way (plus a handful from the Web of stadiums that I went to before I started taking pictures). Here's what we have in our entry hallway. Each frame is a division, with the teams in alphabetical order from top to bottom.
 
 
*Lest you think that's impressive, what's more impressive is the amazing Mrs. IT. She's been to 24, even though she's not a baseball fan. When someone asked her about it, her response, "I don't like baseball, but I like some people who like baseball." 
 
 

So much was packed into two games!  A day later, I've put together a Top Ten list of moments, with no particular metric except my own sense of drama in the moment.  Ranking is influenced by impact on the game's outcome, but there is an "Oh No He Didn't!" factor that counts for a lot.  You will argue with some choices I am sure - I would probably have ranked them slightly differently yesterday and might change my mind tomorrow.
 
 
 
 
 
Game 1 Inning 4: Carlos Correa bails out Polanco, throws out Bichette at home Game 2 Inning 5: Carlos Correa pickoff of Guerrero at second Game 1 Inning 1: Royce Lewis HR #1 Game 1 Inning 3: Royce Lewis HR #2 Game 1 Inning 6: Michael A Taylor at wall for catch of flyball by Chapman Game 2 Inning 8: Griffin Jax unassisted putout like a blocking fullback on Biggio Game 1 Inning 9: Jhoan Duran taking throw to put out Springer and end 18 game losing streak Game 2 Inning 6: Caleb Theilbar 643 DP on Chapman after close foul ball Game 2 Inning 4: Carlos Correa RBI single for first run against Kikuchi Game 2 Inning 9: Jhoan Duran third out swinging strikeout of Varsho for the sweep Here also are my ten honorable mentions, ranked merely in sequential order of when they happened.
Game 1 Inning 2 Michael A Taylor coming in hard for the catch against Chapman
Game 1 Inning 4 Max Kepler with difficult grab of Guerrero smash
Game 1 Inning 5 Pablo Lopez strikes out Belt swinging with Chapman on third
Game 1 Inning 8 Griffin Jax two big strikeouts after Guerrero leadoff double
Game 1 Inning 8 Donovan Solano with unassisted putout of Kirk to end inning
Game 2 Inning 1 Sonny Gray strikes out Biggio to strand two baserunners
Game 2 Inning 4 Max Kepler single against Kikuchi in relief of Berrios
Game 2 Inning 8 Michael A Taylor with grab on tricky fly by Guerrero
Game 2 Inning 8 Carlos Correa hit on hand by pitch but stays in game
Game 2 Inning 9 Jhoan Duran finger cut, 2 bad pitches, then he locks in
Some may say this was the Royce Lewis Series, and obviously Game 1 is his to own forever, but Carlos Correa gets my series MVP vote, with that key RBI in Game 2 tipping the scales.
Notice how frequently Guerrero figured into the proceedings.  Chapman too.  We dodged some bullets, didn't we.
I also can't emphasize enough just how big the moment was when Kepler singled against Kikuchi.  They bring in the lefty, Kepler had his work cut out for him, and he finds a way.  None of the balls put in play that inning were things of beauty really, but conversely the moment was not too big for our hitters.  No moment was more key than Max's, and yet he can't even crack the Top Ten for me.  Wow, what a series!
 

Data and analytics have become scary words across the land of Minnesota Twins baseball recently.  Rocco Baldelli gets criticized regularly for never lifting his head out of the spreadsheet or not trusting his players because the computer told him not to. Many say that the manager needs to go with his gut more often in order to win games or that he needs to take game situations to mind when making decisions.  Let’s dig in a little bit.
So what is this “data”?  Is data all those batting, pitching, and fielding statistics broken down into every conceivable combination and minute detail?  Of course it is.  That’s what we all think of.  How does Batter X perform against a particular pitcher?  Are there platoon advantages to be gained from Batter Y?  We need a home run, who is most likely to hit one right now?  We just need to advance the runner, is Batter Z the right guy to do that?  On the pitching side, how well does Pitcher A perform in his third time through the lineup?  What pitch should Pitcher B throw to Hitter W to get him out?  There are literally hundreds of different statistics out there to analyze and utilize.  The breakdown can go on forever and possibly to the point of silliness, like “What is Batter Q’s hitting line against a submarining lefty pitcher wearing a red uniform north of the Mason Dixon line on a windy Thursday during Lent?”
So that’s what we understand data to be.  It’s all about numbers right?  Well, maybe not.  The things we think of a data are merely numerically quantifying and confirming what is true (or disproving what is thought to be true). For example, in 1977, everyone knew that Rod Carew was the guy you wanted batting if you wanted to start a rally.  That was common knowledge.  Why? Well, because he seems to get a lot of hits and walks and doesn’t strike out a ton.  It’s a no brainer, right?  Yes.  That’s right.  However, to use a simple piece of “data”, his on base percentage that year was almost .450 (I guess that happens when you hit .388!).  Those numbers reinforce or “prove” that he was the guy that the Twins want batting in that situation.  Until they don’t.   Sometimes Rod Carew struck out.  In fact, in arguably the greatest hitting season in team history, he made outs 55% of the time.  Even so, he was still the best option in Gene Mauch’s and pretty much everyone else’s mind. 
What about that “gut feeling”?  It’s called anecdotal data.  It is a belief in something based on some evidence that the decision-maker values.  It’s “the eye test”.  He “looks like a major leaguer”.  “What a great pitch!”  Why do people say that?  Because they have seen things happen that confirm their feelings. Their brain is comparing it to other things they have seen and is making a value judgement based on their experiences.  We don’t realize it, but the personal computer in our head is keeping track and counting occurrences of how things play out on the baseball field.  The brain is analyzing the data that it sees and is coming to a decision.  We don’t think about it that way because we don’t think out loud and verbalize that we are analyzing.  We just “do it”.  No one needs to tell us to drive on the right side of the road, we just know (without knowing any numerical statistics) that driving on the left side would lead to very bad outcomes eventually. 
Back in days of old, when the 1927 Yankees came to town, managers (and pitchers) knew that they were in trouble getting through the heart of the order.  They probably knew Babe Ruth’s and Lou Gehrig’s batting average and the number of home runs they hit, but that’s about all they had.  The rest was just their gut – what they thought might be true based on what they saw in the past. As time went on, more and more ways to quantify those gut feelings came along and gradually came into broader use across the league.  Do you think that manager Bucky Harris of the 1927 Washington Senators would have liked to have some statistical analysis that would help inform his decisions when facing the Bronx Bombers?  I’m certain that he would have.  He would likely have tried to use any advantage he could come up with and knowing where Ruth and Gehrig’s weak spots in the strike zone were would have come in very handy.  Goose Goslin and Tris Speaker were good, but they were never going to keep up with the unchecked Bambino and Slambino. By the way, Bucky Harris was also the 2nd baseman in addition to being the manager that year who used whatever data he could conceive of to beat those damn Yankees.  It didn’t work.  The Senators were pretty good in 1927, but still finished in 3rd place.
So let’s return to 2023. Why do people think that Rocco Baldelli uses data and analytics too much?  Probably because he talks about it a lot and because the game across the league has changed more than fans of one team realize.  Rocco is a smart guy, and a numbers guy.  He’s playing the odds using as much actuarial science as he can in most of the baseball decisions he makes.  Spoiler Alert: This will not always result in decisions working out!  Just as with Rod Carew making outs 55% of the time in 1977, it is not an exact science. If Choice A has a 45% chance of success and Choice B has a 25% chance of success, I’m going with Choice A every single time, even if sometimes it will go the other direction.  This is what insurance companies do all the time when they set the rates that they charge for your insurance policy.  They know that sometimes they will be wrong, but the odds (informed by more statistical analysis than I want to think about or can comprehend) say that over the long term they will have made a good decision.  Add in the human element and those decisions get even more complex. 
But Rocco still uses too much data!  If you mean he takes all the information available to him and factors it into the decision, then yes, he uses too much data if that’s your definition.  Did Tom Kelly use all the information he had to make decisions?  Ron Gardenhire?  I’m pretty sure they did and I’m pretty sure they would like to use the additional information that’s available now as well.  Are they better or worse managers than Rocco Baldelli?  I’m not here to answer that, but I’m certain that the determining factor shouldn’t be whether they used the most complete information available to them to make decisions. Sometimes the data will lead you in the right direction and sometimes it will be wrong, but decisions have to be based on something!  What do you think?
 
 
 
 

Data and analytics have become scary words across the land of Minnesota Twins baseball recently.  Rocco Baldelli gets criticized regularly for never lifting his head out of the spreadsheet or not trusting his players because the computer told him not to. Many say that the manager needs to go with his gut more often in order to win games or that he needs to take game situations to mind when making decisions.  Let’s dig in a little bit.
So what is this “data”?  Is data all those batting, pitching, and fielding statistics broken down into every conceivable combination and minute detail?  Of course it is.  That’s what we all think of.  How does Batter X perform against a particular pitcher?  Are there platoon advantages to be gained from Batter Y?  We need a home run, who is most likely to hit one right now?  We just need to advance the runner, is Batter Z the right guy to do that?  On the pitching side, how well does Pitcher A perform in his third time through the lineup?  What pitch should Pitcher B throw to Hitter W to get him out?  There are literally hundreds of different statistics out there to analyze and utilize.  The breakdown can go on forever and possibly to the point of silliness, like “What is Batter Q’s hitting line against a submarining lefty pitcher wearing a red uniform north of the Mason Dixon line on a windy Thursday during Lent?”
So that’s what we understand data to be.  It’s all about numbers right?  Well, maybe not.  The things we think of a data are merely numerically quantifying and confirming what is true (or disproving what is thought to be true). For example, in 1977, everyone knew that Rod Carew was the guy you wanted batting if you wanted to start a rally.  That was common knowledge.  Why? Well, because he seems to get a lot of hits and walks and doesn’t strike out a ton.  It’s a no brainer, right?  Yes.  That’s right.  However, to use a simple piece of “data”, his on base percentage that year was almost .450 (I guess that happens when you hit .388!).  Those numbers reinforce or “prove” that he was the guy that the Twins want batting in that situation.  Until they don’t.   Sometimes Rod Carew struck out.  In fact, in arguably the greatest hitting season in team history, he made outs 55% of the time.  Even so, he was still the best option in Gene Mauch’s and pretty much everyone else’s mind. 
What about that “gut feeling”?  It’s called anecdotal data.  It is a belief in something based on some evidence that the decision-maker values.  It’s “the eye test”.  He “looks like a major leaguer”.  “What a great pitch!”  Why do people say that?  Because they have seen things happen that confirm their feelings. Their brain is comparing it to other things they have seen and is making a value judgement based on their experiences.  We don’t realize it, but the personal computer in our head is keeping track and counting occurrences of how things play out on the baseball field.  The brain is analyzing the data that it sees and is coming to a decision.  We don’t think about it that way because we don’t think out loud and verbalize that we are analyzing.  We just “do it”.  No one needs to tell us to drive on the right side of the road, we just know (without knowing any numerical statistics) that driving on the left side would lead to very bad outcomes eventually. 
Back in days of old, when the 1927 Yankees came to town, managers (and pitchers) knew that they were in trouble getting through the heart of the order.  They probably knew Babe Ruth’s and Lou Gehrig’s batting average and the number of home runs they hit, but that’s about all they had.  The rest was just their gut – what they thought might be true based on what they saw in the past. As time went on, more and more ways to quantify those gut feelings came along and gradually came into broader use across the league.  Do you think that manager Bucky Harris of the 1927 Washington Senators would have liked to have some statistical analysis that would help inform his decisions when facing the Bronx Bombers?  I’m certain that he would have.  He would likely have tried to use any advantage he could come up with and knowing where Ruth and Gehrig’s weak spots in the strike zone were would have come in very handy.  Goose Goslin and Tris Speaker were good, but they were never going to keep up with the unchecked Bambino and Slambino. By the way, Bucky Harris was also the 2nd baseman in addition to being the manager that year who used whatever data he could conceive of to beat those damn Yankees.  It didn’t work.  The Senators were pretty good in 1927, but still finished in 3rd place.
So let’s return to 2023. Why do people think that Rocco Baldelli uses data and analytics too much?  Probably because he talks about it a lot and because the game across the league has changed more than fans of one team realize.  Rocco is a smart guy, and a numbers guy.  He’s playing the odds using as much actuarial science as he can in most of the baseball decisions he makes.  Spoiler Alert: This will not always result in decisions working out!  Just as with Rod Carew making outs 55% of the time in 1977, it is not an exact science. If Choice A has a 45% chance of success and Choice B has a 25% chance of success, I’m going with Choice A every single time, even if sometimes it will go the other direction.  This is what insurance companies do all the time when they set the rates that they charge for your insurance policy.  They know that sometimes they will be wrong, but the odds (informed by more statistical analysis than I want to think about or can comprehend) say that over the long term they will have made a good decision.  Add in the human element and those decisions get even more complex. 
But Rocco still uses too much data!  If you mean he takes all the information available to him and factors it into the decision, then yes, he uses too much data if that’s your definition.  Did Tom Kelly use all the information he had to make decisions?  Ron Gardenhire?  I’m pretty sure they did and I’m pretty sure they would like to use the additional information that’s available now as well.  Are they better or worse managers than Rocco Baldelli?  I’m not here to answer that, but I’m certain that the determining factor shouldn’t be whether they used the most complete information available to them to make decisions. Sometimes the data will lead you in the right direction and sometimes it will be wrong, but decisions have to be based on something!  What do you think?
 
 
 
 

Data and analytics have become scary words across the land of Minnesota Twins baseball recently.  Rocco Baldelli gets criticized regularly for never lifting his head out of the spreadsheet or not trusting his players because the computer told him not to. Many say that the manager needs to go with his gut more often in order to win games or that he needs to take game situations to mind when making decisions.  Let’s dig in a little bit.
So what is this “data”?  Is data all those batting, pitching, and fielding statistics broken down into every conceivable combination and minute detail?  Of course it is.  That’s what we all think of.  How does Batter X perform against a particular pitcher?  Are there platoon advantages to be gained from Batter Y?  We need a home run, who is most likely to hit one right now?  We just need to advance the runner, is Batter Z the right guy to do that?  On the pitching side, how well does Pitcher A perform in his third time through the lineup?  What pitch should Pitcher B throw to Hitter W to get him out?  There are literally hundreds of different statistics out there to analyze and utilize.  The breakdown can go on forever and possibly to the point of silliness, like “What is Batter Q’s hitting line against a submarining lefty pitcher wearing a red uniform north of the Mason Dixon line on a windy Thursday during Lent?”
So that’s what we understand data to be.  It’s all about numbers right?  Well, maybe not.  The things we think of a data are merely numerically quantifying and confirming what is true (or disproving what is thought to be true). For example, in 1977, everyone knew that Rod Carew was the guy you wanted batting if you wanted to start a rally.  That was common knowledge.  Why? Well, because he seems to get a lot of hits and walks and doesn’t strike out a ton.  It’s a no brainer, right?  Yes.  That’s right.  However, to use a simple piece of “data”, his on base percentage that year was almost .450 (I guess that happens when you hit .388!).  Those numbers reinforce or “prove” that he was the guy that the Twins want batting in that situation.  Until they don’t.   Sometimes Rod Carew struck out.  In fact, in arguably the greatest hitting season in team history, he made outs 55% of the time.  Even so, he was still the best option in Gene Mauch’s and pretty much everyone else’s mind. 
What about that “gut feeling”?  It’s called anecdotal data.  It is a belief in something based on some evidence that the decision-maker values.  It’s “the eye test”.  He “looks like a major leaguer”.  “What a great pitch!”  Why do people say that?  Because they have seen things happen that confirm their feelings. Their brain is comparing it to other things they have seen and is making a value judgement based on their experiences.  We don’t realize it, but the personal computer in our head is keeping track and counting occurrences of how things play out on the baseball field.  The brain is analyzing the data that it sees and is coming to a decision.  We don’t think about it that way because we don’t think out loud and verbalize that we are analyzing.  We just “do it”.  No one needs to tell us to drive on the right side of the road, we just know (without knowing any numerical statistics) that driving on the left side would lead to very bad outcomes eventually. 
Back in days of old, when the 1927 Yankees came to town, managers (and pitchers) knew that they were in trouble getting through the heart of the order.  They probably knew Babe Ruth’s and Lou Gehrig’s batting average and the number of home runs they hit, but that’s about all they had.  The rest was just their gut – what they thought might be true based on what they saw in the past. As time went on, more and more ways to quantify those gut feelings came along and gradually came into broader use across the league.  Do you think that manager Bucky Harris of the 1927 Washington Senators would have liked to have some statistical analysis that would help inform his decisions when facing the Bronx Bombers?  I’m certain that he would have.  He would likely have tried to use any advantage he could come up with and knowing where Ruth and Gehrig’s weak spots in the strike zone were would have come in very handy.  Goose Goslin and Tris Speaker were good, but they were never going to keep up with the unchecked Bambino and Slambino. By the way, Bucky Harris was also the 2nd baseman in addition to being the manager that year who used whatever data he could conceive of to beat those damn Yankees.  It didn’t work.  The Senators were pretty good in 1927, but still finished in 3rd place.
So let’s return to 2023. Why do people think that Rocco Baldelli uses data and analytics too much?  Probably because he talks about it a lot and because the game across the league has changed more than fans of one team realize.  Rocco is a smart guy, and a numbers guy.  He’s playing the odds using as much actuarial science as he can in most of the baseball decisions he makes.  Spoiler Alert: This will not always result in decisions working out!  Just as with Rod Carew making outs 55% of the time in 1977, it is not an exact science. If Choice A has a 45% chance of success and Choice B has a 25% chance of success, I’m going with Choice A every single time, even if sometimes it will go the other direction.  This is what insurance companies do all the time when they set the rates that they charge for your insurance policy.  They know that sometimes they will be wrong, but the odds (informed by more statistical analysis than I want to think about or can comprehend) say that over the long term they will have made a good decision.  Add in the human element and those decisions get even more complex. 
But Rocco still uses too much data!  If you mean he takes all the information available to him and factors it into the decision, then yes, he uses too much data if that’s your definition.  Did Tom Kelly use all the information he had to make decisions?  Ron Gardenhire?  I’m pretty sure they did and I’m pretty sure they would like to use the additional information that’s available now as well.  Are they better or worse managers than Rocco Baldelli?  I’m not here to answer that, but I’m certain that the determining factor shouldn’t be whether they used the most complete information available to them to make decisions. Sometimes the data will lead you in the right direction and sometimes it will be wrong, but decisions have to be based on something!  What do you think?
 
 
 
 

Our lineup clearly has issues this season and we have players who succeed at inconsistent intervals.  But if you look at our players and bench and prospects you will find a lineup full of players with over a 100 OPS+ stats.  That means they are above average hitting.  And if we field a lineup of above average hitting players we might score more consistently and more often resulting in more wins.  Here is one way I see we can optimize our lineup and put our best foot forward based on various stats.  for this I am using the following for consideration.  OPS+ (the main stat)  Average, BB, XBH per 10, BB per 10
First let's sort through our starting 9 then figure out a proper batting order.
C  Ryan Jeffers is the better hitter between him and Vazquez with an .804 OPS and 124 OPS+
1B Solano is hitting .773 OPS with a 116 OPS + He probably should be our leadoff hitter with that On Base Percentage of his .379
2B  Edouard Julien .783 OPS and 116 OPS +  he is even with 12 XBH and 13 BB in 127 AB and he has a solid .341 OBP
3B Lewis has a .863 OPS and 137 OPS+ he hits with a high average and decent HRs.  however only 3 BB and 6 XBH in 81 AB so not patient and not quite at the 1 XBH per 10 AB you want to see but kinda small sample size.
SS Kyle Farmer and Correa are pretty interchangeable here right now.  Correa has more HRs and Farmer the higher OBP though not by too much.  Correa is 91 OPS+ but has 28 XBH and 29 BB in 268 AB so he has a slight positive number in these 2 categories which means he just needs to get his batting average up to be a better contributer.
OF  Killeroff in LF with a .763 OPS and 113 OPS+ with a .366 OBP he could hit 2nd since he isnt reaching full power potential yet.
OF Gallo in CF  three true outcome player.  over 60% of his plate appearances end in a HR, BB, or Strike out.  with a .768 OPS and .110 OPS+ He still starts.  
OF Rf is a toss up of Larnarch, Kepler, or Castro.  all are within a few points of each other in OPS Castro has more speed and Kepler has been great with the glove.  OR we could give Walner a chance with his 1.099 OPS and 206 OPS+  while I doubt he would stay hitting at that pace he could hit .750 OPS and be better then the trio in front of him.  
DH Buxton and Polanco are interchangeable as long as Buxton is somewhat hurt.  they both have a 103 and 102 OPS+ at this point.  Though when healthy Buxton can hit.  
so lets configure a lineup from this and see what we think.  Clearly this lineup is a defensive downgrade but much better hitting lineup.
RHB 1b Solano 116 OPS+
LHB 2B Julien 116 OPS +
RHB 3B Lewis 137 OPS +
LHB LF Killeroff 113 OPS +
RHB DH Buxton 103 OPS +
LHB CF Gallo 110 OPS +
RHB SS Correa 91 OPS +
LHB RF Wallner 206 OPS + (SSS)
RHB C Jeffers 124 OPS+
This lineup breaks up the RHB and LHB evenly throughout the lineup.  it also gives us a lineup with everyone but Correa over 100 OPS +.  it puts the high on base percentage guys at the top of the lineup.  power is in the 5-8 lineup slots, and Jeffers has a great on base percentage at this point which helps serve as a line up catalyst at the bottom of the lineup.  I left Correa in to help keep defense as good as possible.  Taylor is ready to be deployed into CF for defense upgrade when needed.  
How would you try to maximize our offense with what we have.  

Alex Kirilloff and Royce Lewis are two Twins players that have a lot in common. Both guys were high draft choices who reached top prospect status. Both guys have missed most of the last two seasons with injuries and started this season on the Injured List due to serious injuries suffered last year. Both returned to the team this year and prompted speculation that their arrival might propel the Twins this year. 
While there is a lot to like, I think neither of these guys is playing like an instant star. I also think that if the Twins aspire to be more than a near-.500 team, it will be because of one or both of these young players. Here's my view of their abbreviated seasons so far this year:
Kirilloff had a second surgery on his troublesome right wrist and it was thought that he might be ready to to be on the roster on Opening Day. That didn't happen. Alex didn't face live pitching until late in spring training and he was placed on the Injured List to start the season. Kirilloff used all of his 20-day rehab and hit well at each level with no signs of wrist discomfort or impairment. Still, with the club in first place and Joey Gallo hammering a lot of homers and playing a good first base, Kirilloff was briefly optioned to St. Paul in early May. Injuries quickly opened a spot and Alex was back! In his first week back, he looked like a future batting champion, taking walks, swinging at strikes and frequently hitting the ball hard. He's tailed off since then and hasn't hit for much power. AK has mostly played first base, but has also logged quite a few innings in the outfield corners. Kirilloff has been shielded from left handed pitching, not starting several games against lefties and he's frequently been replaced by a pinch hitter. Significantly, Kirilloff hasn't missed a game due to injury.
Lewis suffered his second consecutive torn ACL in June last year and was placed on the 60-day IL when the season started. He also didn't face live pitching during the spring. Royce began his 20-day rehab within a day or two of the earliest date possible and was activated from the Injured List on the first day he was eligible. Lewis made an immediate impact with a homer in his first game and a key late inning hits as the Twins played better for a spell. Royce is currently sporting a batting average over .300 with three homers and a dozen RBI. Good numbers, for sure. He hasn't been turned loose on the base paths yet and he's only walked a couple of times while being prone to the strikeout. Except for one inning in a blowout game, Lewis has exclusively played third base. He's made a number of athletic highlight reel plays, but also made some errors.game due to injury.  
I think the time for both Lewis and Kirilloff is soon, but not now. Lewis has had many of his best at-bats with the most on the line. Kirilloff is much more consistent in his at-bats, but so far hasn't done that much damage. Lewis is prone to more non-competitive plate appearances, but has risen to the occasion quite a few times already. Baldelli has batted Kirilloff in the top half of the order against right handers and hit Lewis lower (5th -7th). I would expect that Lewis could move to the top of the order when he becomes more selective. Lewis has been given off days since returning to the Twins, probably a wise move considering Royce's injury history. 
Expecting Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff to lead the Twins to the promised land of a division championship and playoff success is probably asking too much this year. Having them be contributors beside Buxton, Correa and Polanco is a more reasonable expectation. Maybe as soon as next year they might be headliners. I hope and expect that their games will round off--that AK will hit with more power and that Lewis will show a more complete overall game. It's important that they are healthy and their futures still look bright. 
 

Data and analytics have become scary words across the land of Minnesota Twins baseball recently.  Rocco Baldelli gets criticized regularly for never lifting his head out of the spreadsheet or not trusting his players because the computer told him not to. Many say that the manager needs to go with his gut more often in order to win games or that he needs to take game situations to mind when making decisions.  Let’s dig in a little bit.
So what is this “data”?  Is data all those batting, pitching, and fielding statistics broken down into every conceivable combination and minute detail?  Of course it is.  That’s what we all think of.  How does Batter X perform against a particular pitcher?  Are there platoon advantages to be gained from Batter Y?  We need a home run, who is most likely to hit one right now?  We just need to advance the runner, is Batter Z the right guy to do that?  On the pitching side, how well does Pitcher A perform in his third time through the lineup?  What pitch should Pitcher B throw to Hitter W to get him out?  There are literally hundreds of different statistics out there to analyze and utilize.  The breakdown can go on forever and possibly to the point of silliness, like “What is Batter Q’s hitting line against a submarining lefty pitcher wearing a red uniform north of the Mason Dixon line on a windy Thursday during Lent?”
So that’s what we understand data to be.  It’s all about numbers right?  Well, maybe not.  The things we think of a data are merely numerically quantifying and confirming what is true (or disproving what is thought to be true). For example, in 1977, everyone knew that Rod Carew was the guy you wanted batting if you wanted to start a rally.  That was common knowledge.  Why? Well, because he seems to get a lot of hits and walks and doesn’t strike out a ton.  It’s a no brainer, right?  Yes.  That’s right.  However, to use a simple piece of “data”, his on base percentage that year was almost .450 (I guess that happens when you hit .388!).  Those numbers reinforce or “prove” that he was the guy that the Twins want batting in that situation.  Until they don’t.   Sometimes Rod Carew struck out.  In fact, in arguably the greatest hitting season in team history, he made outs 55% of the time.  Even so, he was still the best option in Gene Mauch’s and pretty much everyone else’s mind. 
What about that “gut feeling”?  It’s called anecdotal data.  It is a belief in something based on some evidence that the decision-maker values.  It’s “the eye test”.  He “looks like a major leaguer”.  “What a great pitch!”  Why do people say that?  Because they have seen things happen that confirm their feelings. Their brain is comparing it to other things they have seen and is making a value judgement based on their experiences.  We don’t realize it, but the personal computer in our head is keeping track and counting occurrences of how things play out on the baseball field.  The brain is analyzing the data that it sees and is coming to a decision.  We don’t think about it that way because we don’t think out loud and verbalize that we are analyzing.  We just “do it”.  No one needs to tell us to drive on the right side of the road, we just know (without knowing any numerical statistics) that driving on the left side would lead to very bad outcomes eventually. 
Back in days of old, when the 1927 Yankees came to town, managers (and pitchers) knew that they were in trouble getting through the heart of the order.  They probably knew Babe Ruth’s and Lou Gehrig’s batting average and the number of home runs they hit, but that’s about all they had.  The rest was just their gut – what they thought might be true based on what they saw in the past. As time went on, more and more ways to quantify those gut feelings came along and gradually came into broader use across the league.  Do you think that manager Bucky Harris of the 1927 Washington Senators would have liked to have some statistical analysis that would help inform his decisions when facing the Bronx Bombers?  I’m certain that he would have.  He would likely have tried to use any advantage he could come up with and knowing where Ruth and Gehrig’s weak spots in the strike zone were would have come in very handy.  Goose Goslin and Tris Speaker were good, but they were never going to keep up with the unchecked Bambino and Slambino. By the way, Bucky Harris was also the 2nd baseman in addition to being the manager that year who used whatever data he could conceive of to beat those damn Yankees.  It didn’t work.  The Senators were pretty good in 1927, but still finished in 3rd place.
So let’s return to 2023. Why do people think that Rocco Baldelli uses data and analytics too much?  Probably because he talks about it a lot and because the game across the league has changed more than fans of one team realize.  Rocco is a smart guy, and a numbers guy.  He’s playing the odds using as much actuarial science as he can in most of the baseball decisions he makes.  Spoiler Alert: This will not always result in decisions working out!  Just as with Rod Carew making outs 55% of the time in 1977, it is not an exact science. If Choice A has a 45% chance of success and Choice B has a 25% chance of success, I’m going with Choice A every single time, even if sometimes it will go the other direction.  This is what insurance companies do all the time when they set the rates that they charge for your insurance policy.  They know that sometimes they will be wrong, but the odds (informed by more statistical analysis than I want to think about or can comprehend) say that over the long term they will have made a good decision.  Add in the human element and those decisions get even more complex. 
But Rocco still uses too much data!  If you mean he takes all the information available to him and factors it into the decision, then yes, he uses too much data if that’s your definition.  Did Tom Kelly use all the information he had to make decisions?  Ron Gardenhire?  I’m pretty sure they did and I’m pretty sure they would like to use the additional information that’s available now as well.  Are they better or worse managers than Rocco Baldelli?  I’m not here to answer that, but I’m certain that the determining factor shouldn’t be whether they used the most complete information available to them to make decisions. Sometimes the data will lead you in the right direction and sometimes it will be wrong, but decisions have to be based on something!  What do you think?
 
 
 
 

On December 10th, it was announced that a few Twins had changed their jersey numbers. Trevor Larnach from 13 to 9, Emilio Pagán from 12 to 15, Kyle Farmer from 17 to 12, Bailey Ober from 16 to 17, and Griffin Jax 65 to 22.
This is nothing out of the ordinary; a few players each offseason on any team will request a number change for one reason or another. However, this time, something peculiar happened shortly thereafter.
Joey Gallo was signed less than a week later, and he claimed the 13 number, his number in Texas and New York, which had conveniently been vacated by Larnach. Is this a coincidence? My money is on no; it's incredibly meaningful.
I did exactly what you have come to expect from old Gregg--I've scoured the list of remaining MLB free agents to see what this might mean for the rest of the offseason, and it leaves more questions than answers. Here are my findings:
#9 (Taken by Trevor Larnach)
The only remaining free agent who wears 9 is Dee Strange-Gordon, Nick Gordon's half-brother. Might there be a rift between Larnach and Gordon now that he's preventing his big brother playing for Minnesota? Probably. It's a good thing that Correa is back to try to help keep the locker room intact. Between this and fighting over left field playing time, things could get ugly.
#12 (Vacated by Emilio Pagán; Taken by Kyle Farmer)
Farmer really stepped on Pagán's toes here. It looks like Emilio may have been trying to open the door for Rougned Odor to don a Twins jersey, which makes sense given his history of sucker-punching opponents who homers off his pitchers. Having Odor at second base would definitely help keep Pagán's homerun numbers in check. Watch for a rift between these two teammates as well.
#15 (Taken by Emilio Pagán)
It's been a rough 24 hours in Twins territory with the last two #15 free agents signing elsewhere in Raimel Tapia and Brian Anderson. When will the team finally pull the trigger on the guys they really want?
#16 (Vacated by Bailey Ober)
This was the spot that showed the most promise, though with Trey Mancini coming off the board this week, the remaining pool is thin in Cesar Hernandez and Travis Jankowski. I would bet that the Twins were more in on Mancini than suggested, given that they clearly forced Ober to change numbers to attract him.
#17 (Taken by Bailey Ober)
Ober apparently looked Chris Archer in the eyes and said "This town ain't big enough for two five-and-dives" and took his number, preventing his return. Go get 'em, Bailey!
#22 (Taken by Griffin Jax)
Learned men like me know that there was no shot of the Twins getting Andrew McCutchen with this stunt pulled. Think of the team, Griffin!
This also rains on Jeremy Nygaard's hopes to bring back Miguel Sanó. Surely the big man wouldn't come back if he couldn't get his number back from a relief pitcher. To make matters worse, this also eliminates Robinson Canó from contention. Sure, he switched his number for Roger Clemens in New York, but Jax is no Rocket; he's Air Force, not Space Force.
This also removes Luis Torrens as an option. Sad day for those of you with Luis Torrens on your offseason bingo card.
#65 (Vacated by Griffin Jax)
There isn't even a potential free agent with Griffin's old number. So selfish.