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whosafraidofluigirussolo

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Everything posted by whosafraidofluigirussolo

  1. whosafraidofluigirussolo
    A lot of free agency forecasting articles have cited that the DH will continue to exist in both leagues in 2021. No one has said this publicly yet, right? Do we know when an announcement might happen? As far as Cruz goes, at any rate, totally agree with: Would be hesitant to resign Cruz on a two year deal and would love to have him back for one. There might be some recency bias with Romo's struggles in the playoffs causing some of us to think his season was worse than it really was, but it seems like picking up his option is a big risk of paying for decline. The buyout isn't an onerous amount. Use what would be Romo's salary to give Clippard a little raise if he wants to come back. I hope the Twins engage May about a deal, but I think someone else will end up offering him more - although depending on how teams behave after this oddball season, the middle of the free-agent market where he is might get squeezed. But he's young enough and successful enough that I think someone will pay him. I imagine Odorizzi may want another one-year contract to play a healthy year and then hit the market again, and I imagine the Twins might prefer to sign him for multiple years, but I'd be happy to see either if he wants to return. He's fairly young, he has something to prove about his health, and he had the best season of his career in MN. It seems to make a lot of sense.
  2. whosafraidofluigirussolo
    I suppose it's possible that if Donaldson were healthy, neither Astudillo nor Kirilloff would be on this series roster and they might have had a spot for another pitcher? They're sort of replacing Donaldson with both players - Astudillo for the ability to play 3B (mainly as a depth option if Marwin has to start there) and Kirilloff theoretically to replace some pop on the roster.
  3. whosafraidofluigirussolo
    Yeah, this surprises me too—it's not surprising that Odorizzi would slot ahead of Bailey if he's healthy, which seems obvious enough, but that the management is confident enough in their options for a potential 5th starter without Bailey around as at least emergency depth.
  4. whosafraidofluigirussolo
    This is not at all a criticism after a big win, but a curiosity. I was surprised that the 9th inning didn't go to a lower-leverage reliever, particularly Poppen—who has been on the training-camp shuttle and a lower-leverage pitcher this year, and who would have been warming up with a 6-run lead and then entering with a 7-run lead. Maybe this tracks with Poppen being the one to come up when Odorizzi went back on the IL—considering that this put the Twins down a starter, and Dobnak would have been able to come up (exempt from the minimum minor-league option time) if he were replacing an injured player, but I don't think he can be recalled now. All of which makes me wonder if Poppen is getting the start, or the "bulk" innings in a bullpen game, in what would have been Odorizzi's next turn in the rotation.
  5. whosafraidofluigirussolo
    I thought the same. I do think these predictions are just MLB's staff writers throwing stuff at the wall, not a response to anything they've heard from connected sources. Still, both of the predictions involving the Twins seem like overpays, the suggested Yastrzemski deal especially—their top position and pitching prospects for a lefty-hitting outfielder (and more an interesting late bloomer, at that, than a player with a long established track record) when they have lots of lefty outfielders and the offensive help they need is from the right side? Insane. Going for an impact starter and centering the trade around one of their outfield prospects is a better strategy. The harder the Twins FO goes after a starter, I imagine, the more it shows they doubt Pineda and/or Odorizzi will be back to full strength down the stretch. It'll be interesting to see what happens.
  6. whosafraidofluigirussolo
    Come on.
  7. whosafraidofluigirussolo
    I haven't looked at Adrianza's splits, and maybe there's reason to think he's a good right-handed pinch-hitting option even as he's having a weak offensive year. However, I thought it was curious that he was the choice to pinch-hit for Avila against a lefty—considering that Jeffers hits righty, was going to come into the game anyway, and hasn't been obviously overmatched so far.
  8. whosafraidofluigirussolo
    I'd think it would be another pitcher. Thorpe is the freshest arm based on the chart above, but maybe also the most logical to send down? Of the most recently taxed pitchers in the bullpen, Rogers isn't going anywhere, Alcala may be in line for higher leverage spots, Wisler and Smeltzer don't really deserve a demotion after solid work in the last bullpen game, I don't think Wisler can be optioned anyway and I'm not sure whether Thielbar can be either.
  9. whosafraidofluigirussolo
    MLBTR says "Minnesota will make a 28-man roster move to accommodate Vargas’ activation at a later date." The point of a lot of the DFA rules is to keep players from getting stuck in limbo or shuttled back and forth to the minors indefinitely, no? Can the Twins announce the deal and still have a couple days to make room for Vargas if the week-long DFA period isn't over?
  10. whosafraidofluigirussolo
    I'm assuming that some or many of the players who were mentioned as late-first-round candidates and haven't been drafted yet are getting hard to sign at this point and will go undrafted, given that the draft is short, bonus pools are small, and going back to school may be more appealing than usual. But kinda wondering if Beeter will be there at pick 59?
  11. whosafraidofluigirussolo
    A lot of those college pitchers mentioned in the mid-late first round ended up slipping out of the round. It'll be interesting to see how long they last. The Padres' competitive balance round pick was born on 9/11 (the infamous one.)
  12. whosafraidofluigirussolo
    Cool.
  13. whosafraidofluigirussolo
    Incidental note: Man, oh man, the draft is slow in the early rounds. Like, I'm prepared for it to be slow every year I take the time to follow the first round in real time, and I'm still struck by how slow it moves.
  14. whosafraidofluigirussolo
    I know the Twins FO has a pattern of favoring hitters with early picks, and Seth's predictions take that as a strong indication. I know it's always a good idea to take the best player available in the first round, and the current strengths of the Twins system (counting the majors) are probably coloring my preferences. But man...it would be nice to get a pitcher at the top of this draft. It's supposed to be a pitching-rich draft. If there's any fuzziness in the ranking or tiers of players by the late 1st round, seems like a good chance to opt for adding an arm to the overall makeup of the system. Getting Howard if he fell would also be cool. Sabato as a positionless power bat...ehh.
  15. whosafraidofluigirussolo
    Torkelson was just taken and (at least according to MLB.com) announced as a 3rd baseman.
  16. whosafraidofluigirussolo
    Just guessing that one spot still is as good as open for the young guys. With Maeda in the fold, I don't think Chacín's experience gives him any leg up for a rotation spot any more. I'm betting it's an open competition for that last spot and there's a good chance that Chacín doesn't win it and instead latches on elsewhere.
  17. whosafraidofluigirussolo
    Thinking this is as good a thread as any for a tidbit from Dan Hayes, from this morning's roster projection article in the Athletic: Basically, we’re kind of flipping a coin on how the back end of the rotation may look until Pineda returns on May 10 and Hill works his way back into action. But it could be extremely varied. Still, the Twins are high on Thorpe because of his pitch mix and they believe that his ability to eventually adjust to new levels will kick in this season. The team also has some potentially very interesting veteran options coming via yet-to-be-announced non-roster invites to spring training.
  18. whosafraidofluigirussolo
    Signing Donaldson and extending Sanó sets a higher floor for the offense for the next several years, even after Cruz and (presumably) Rosario move on. Perhaps a good time to take the risk of offering a top hitting prospect in trade. If Kirilloff or Larnach as a centerpiece would get the Twins a good arm, they should do it.
  19. whosafraidofluigirussolo
    If the Twins did sign two of these guys, my guess is the third would balk at choosing to sign with a team that appeared to have a full rotation. Signing two of them definitely sounds interesting, though.
  20. whosafraidofluigirussolo
    Not sure that "Miami is looking for a lefthanded-hitting outfielder" translates to "they want to trade for three lefthanded-hitting outfielders at once"! Or it means that this is the kind of deal that both teams would be just as happy to revisit at the end of the offseason. Marlins would prefer to aim higher for a lefty-hitting OF, Twins would prefer to explore other rotation options first, but there's a framework they could come back to later if needed. (Not necessarily disputing that MIA would want more than Cave in such a deal.)
  21. whosafraidofluigirussolo
    I didn't get any farther with an offseason "blueprint" than drafting it in my head before transaction dominoes started to fall and it became outdated, but I had Smoak in it for just this reason. Also if others outperformed him such that he lost a regular starting gig, being a switch-hitter might give him a bit of extra utility as a bench bat.
  22. whosafraidofluigirussolo
    With Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg seemingly out of the picture (not that they were ever in it), Bumgarner may be the Twins last chance, as Ryu seems unlikely to land in Minnesota. Why is Ryu unlikely to land in Minnesota? Not asking because I have a strong conviction otherwise, but curious what your thinking is. There has long been a perception that most Asian-born players prefer to play on the coasts, particularly the west coast, if they have a choice about where to play. Presumably this perception started from real examples of players feeling this way, but it seems like it gets repeated in many different cases and I wonder how true it really is across the board. On the other hand, the Dodgers seem to prioritize retaining their own free agents and to make it happen when they want to, so if they like the match with Ryu then yes, I'd guess that any other team is at a disadvantage.
  23. whosafraidofluigirussolo
    Teams tend not to do it because, independent of other payroll concerns, expected inflation means that $X (whatever amount) a few seasons from now is less than $X now. So in "real" monetary value (granted, a pretty abstract concept), the same dollar amount in a multi-year contract is somewhat smaller if it's back-loaded than if it's front-loaded or at a flat yearly rate. That's the explanation I've heard. I suppose players might like the greater "real" value of a front-loaded contract—but maybe also wouldn't like the chances that decreasing salary in the later years of a contract could make it easier for their teams to trade them. Anyway, those are general cases, and I don't think it's impossible that a team or a player would be more interested in a front-loaded contract under particular circumstances. Having a young core that's a year or two away from getting expensive seems to be a reason to consider it.
  24. whosafraidofluigirussolo
    Seems interesting. It depends on his current health, of course, but if they think Wood is healed and ready to go by the beginning of the season, the Twins are in a good position with pitching depth to handle a somewhat greater future injury risk with him. Agree with the sentiment posted above that would hope for Wood to be the second or third tier of pitching acquisitions, but don't agree with the idea of filling all four open rotation spots from free agency. There are enough deserving internal candidates to hold the last spot.
  25. whosafraidofluigirussolo
    Was skimming a fangraphs chat from a couple days ago and caught this: Trade: biggest name traded this offseason? Eric A Longenhagen: robbie ray Robbie Ray : best haul for Ray possible? Eric A Longenhagen: something centered around clint frazier or maybe a package from MIN around Jeffers+? Seems worth it...
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