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Kwak

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Everything posted by Kwak

  1. Kwak
    This is the last year for Hicks. He succeeds or fails as a primary CF. If he is sent to AAA it is a waste of everybody's time. Hicks must succeed as a Twins--so he can be traded or serve as the fallback option to a promotion of Buxton next season. There are many options for a #4 OF, and frankly said position is a low priority for the Twins. The small market mentality of plugging-in spare parts as starters must send. Develop long-term solutions for every position. Players "get their chance": succeed and the job is theirs; fail and likely watch someone else seize the opportunity. The endless up/down, chance, 2nd chance, etc. must give way to Next! Second chances are for instances when no one has succeeded.
  2. Kwak
    Another "downplay the expectations" statement. While (most likely true) is the purpose to inform (educate?) or to build the foundation to excuse the Front Office? At some point the old excuses become cliches (or just exposed as myths) and must be replaced. I hope this isn't the purpose of the article.
  3. Kwak
    The 3B job is Plouffe's to lose. The Twins will closely evalute Plouffe's performance (more than Sano's), nd if they like it--they will offer Plouffe a long-term (5-6 yr) deal. Of course, maybe Plouffe has been offered a deal (doubt it) and refused. And he might refuse an offer from the Twins (again?)--always a possibility. My best guess: Plouffe s offered a deal and accepts it, and Sao is developed to play elsewhere (probably OF).
  4. Kwak
    Give (forced to) Pelfrey away: a given. See Livan Hernandez in '08--and he had an enviable record. Nolasco--he definately gets a longer leash. The contract, plus the improved results (after some changes) at the end of the season. If he fails (miserably fails) I cite the example of Carlos Silva and Seattle. They traded him for Bradley (a baseball cancer of sorts). The Twins could take a similar tack and trade him for someone else's problem--say for example some over-priced OF with two years left on his contract. Milhone: for some reason his name wasn't mentioned. Normally there is a reason for that--we'll see. Meyer and May: typical GM games in play here: vets with contracts and rookie without service time.
  5. Kwak
    "I eat whatever I want", "I eat everything". Perhaps discipline is needed. Given what we see now, the likelihood he emulates Fielder (take your pick) is high. If the Twins can't help him control himself, wait until he hits his 35-40 HRs--and trade him!
  6. Kwak
    Fallacy: Free agents are paid according to "their WAR". Free agents negoiate according to supply/demand--unless they choose to "take less for 'other' reasons". Statistics are not scripture. There are other factors. Signing Dozier, as implied in an earlier post, sends a message to other players. Perform and "get paid" is only part of that message. The Front Office needs fixtures on the team for stability for fans and for other players, as well as for organizational planning and control. How much is Dozier worth? We shall find out shortly. Since its Pohlad's money (and not mine!) I won't get upset all that much.
  7. Kwak
    Homerun hitters have generally been overpaid relative to to the rest. The selection of Dunn is (perhaps, misleading--he was used as a DH (zero defensive value) or 1B reduced defensive value compared to other positions.
  8. Kwak
    The 60-yd dash isn't useful for SS evaluation--it's more like the 1 second dash--how quick is said candidate.
  9. Kwak
    "Both play well". OK, but there would be one huge difference--Plouffe would be with the Twins and Sano would be in the minors. "Playing well" isn't equivalent. Juxtapose their performance with the statement "...Prospects aren't players...". Let me also remind posters that GMs really do incorporate "the mone thing" into their decision process. The likelihood that Sano's "service time" would be juggled in order to add an additional season of team control is high. Summing up, if this scenario were to actually happen, I wouldn't expect it to impact the Twins until mid 2016. Considering the "difficulties of centerfield", I can't believe the Twins would leave themselves without any viable alternative at 3B.
  10. Kwak
    A point not mentioned in the #5 SP discussion is: Terry Ryan. He went out to acquire each of these men--spending either players or money with the purpose of correcting the poor results of the rotation. If none of these guys take this job and "do something" with it, what does that say about the ability to locate and acquire talent the restores the Twins to a contender? Signing warm bodies that kinda/sorta resemble major league talent isn't enough. If the "vaunted eye-test" doesn't work?--then what? It's great that the Twins have had these very early selections in the Rule 4 Draft, and that they might become stars ( a big function of the player-personnel department). But, evaluation is crucial, adding talent from other rosters is hugely important--and there have been few success stories there.
  11. Kwak
    Metrics (even the "old-fashioned ones") are to measure the hitting, catching, throwing, and running, (pitching too!). How well they measure each of those attributes is open to debate, but some sort of quantification of the "eye test" is required. Completly dismissing the use of statistics is anal, they have been used for a very long time (e.g. "the old-fashioned ones").
  12. Kwak
    It was an excuse-pure and simple. The "eye test" would have shown that Arcia is just plain "challenged" as an outfielder: slow reads, misreads, as well as inexperience, and possibly too large of a desire to impress. As far as the statement "...a pretty good outfielder..." I take with a block of salt. Some guys (sadly, too few) make playing the outfield look easy, most allow a viewer to notice the difficulty but that extra effort and athletic ability show that success is possible, and sadly too many give the impression that they would rather the ball be hit toward anybody else. I place Arcia in the last group.
  13. Kwak
    There are differences between the Garnett and Hunter situations: 1) KG will only play for about two months, Hunter from mid February through September--a whole lot more time to grate on everybody's nerves; 2) KG has a much higher stature in BKB, than Hunter has in BB; 3) BKB has "the 1-1 drills" that BB doesn't, allowing KG to "back-up" his words to others. Hunter can only start fights; 4) after a crummy Winter, casual fans are more likely to watch a BKB game than BB fans--and there is only two months to watch KG. The BB season is six months. But, as stated by many, the Twins need to do something more than preach "help is on the way". Options were limited. I don't think for a moment that Hunter had to climb over a bunch of other former all-stars to play for the Twins in 2015.
  14. Kwak
    What on earth could Ryan and Molitor say?--"We know he can't play the OF but we have no choice but Arcia. Hopefully, he will hit enough that we can (eventually) trade him for people we can truly use." C'mom!
  15. Kwak
    The "eye test" also nailed Arcia, Willingham and Delmon.
  16. Kwak
    I didn't say that! My point was: if metrics supported signing a player--that would have been cited, as well as "the eye test" (which was cited).
  17. Kwak
    Hunter was signed to mollify the fan base. It is hoped he will sell more tickets (especially season tickets), another batch of "HUNTER" jerseys, and concessions to game attendees. It is also hoped he can be used to "refocus" the players, as well as the local media, "to the brand". Defensive metrics aren't needed to make this decision, however if they actually supported the decision to sign Hunter, I am confident said metrics would have been cited. Since said metrics didn't support this decision, Ryan stated "the eye test".
  18. Kwak
    It should be clear that the decision to sign Hunter was not based on metrics. The Twins are looking for "something" that can't be measured. An October statement (sorry no link, but it has been on TD) concerning $85MM budget "is about right"--only to be replaced by ~$21MM in additional FA spending should be more than enough evidence that "a different metric was used" for Hunter (and Santana). 2015 undoubtably planned to be "a bridge season" between "the wretched past" and the (hoped for) glorious future. Advanced metrics (whichever ones you like) aren't all that meaningful in this situation--Hunter isn't planned for long-term use!
  19. Kwak
    A Poll: What month does leadership become: 1) a hemorrhoid 2) an ulcer 3) cancer ?
  20. Kwak
    "Easy to run on the catchers"?--previously that phrase was only used for pitchers. While I 't think all that much of Twins' catcher defense, I place most blame on the pitchers. My memory doesn't recall very many "pickoffs". Nor very many instances where the baserunner was leaning "back-to-base" while a pitch was delivered to homeplate. The intimidation factor just isn't very high--for either the pitchers or the catchers--nd that has to be earned.
  21. Kwak
    You can add: "My struggles came from an injury, but when I healed-up a bit I could be 'my old self' again, and..." On another note: "Why does this software eliminate spaces between sentences?"
  22. Kwak
    I think there were two Nolascoes last season: the first changed to adopt a cutter as the breakng ball (`ala Hughes) and he got hammered; the second replaced the cutter with a curveball (which I believe was what he used before he became a Twin), and the second Nolasco had improved results which were similar to those before being a Twin. Thus, I believe we will see improved results from him in 2015. Oh yes, that contract means he is in the rotation come April.
  23. Kwak
    This reads as a human-interest story: local boy sets out to make his way, struggles, comes home and makes good. I'm conident that a big reason the Twins signed him was "the local connection" (nothing wong with that). But reading between he lines we can see more. Major market team seea a talent promotes him to a level to challenge him in order to see if he truly is "a star in the making". He struggles and since the team is only interested in future stars--they cut him loose. But, the Twins have "a different way". The "local boy makes good" works and so does the "inexpensive spare part" potential, fit the Twins' needs. This makes for the contrast between the goals of a major market team and the Twins. It is an interesting story and on more than one level.
  24. Kwak
    Of course! The Twins have been blaming poor results on a weak roster (and posters agree!). No one should be surprised that franchises with huge revenue streams would spend huge sums to obtain/retain a roster loaded with talent in order to keep winning.
  25. Kwak
    It's not as if Gardenhire wasn't aware of the roster (and the rest of the franchise) when he re-signed. So, did he sign for 2 years pay to "fall on the spear" for the organization's faults or did he believe that he had a "lifetime contract"? Because I don't think he had that much hubris to believe he could turn that bunch into winners.
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