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Kwak

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Everything posted by Kwak

  1. No it won't be forgotten. There will be many posts here on TD to remind everybody of the poor defense.
  2. If Harrison is behind Arcia in range and total defense, I hope he finds a position he can play.
  3. Amen. Worshipping innuendo has become all too frequent, especially for those encompassing statistics that require considerable judgement just to generate the base data much less its' end-product statistic.
  4. It is presumptuous to speak of "consensus" about pitch-framing. Judgement "calls" can also be determined by other factors e.g. reputation of the pitcher, or the hitter, mood of the umpire, state-of-the-game, etc. Pitch-framing is an "invention" that can't be physically measured.
  5. I think the biggest story line is how much control Molitor has in roster decisions and playing time allocations. If the 2015 Twins soon resemble previous years Molitor is simply Gardenhire II, and the Front Office is really running everything.
  6. Another aspect to consider--your favorite team makes the playoffs. The 3 runs in 7 innings will often be a losing effort, but the 1 run in 8 will carry your team through. If this scenario sounds familar--it should! Pretty good will generally win a weak division--but falls in the playoffs. World Series winning seasons (even losses) are remembered for decades but division championships are soon forgotten (and rightly so).
  7. For me it's an easy choice; a). My team will win almost every start with 1 run in 8, but will still win oocasionally with 5 runs in 6 innings. My estimate is that my team will win 55-60% of those starts given about 30 starts for the season.
  8. The Twins development protocol for Stewart is questionable. The "go-slow" approach hasn't provided a steady stream of quality starters. They invest a 4th O.A. selection and use rather strict limits on his pitching--pitches/game, innings/season, and pitch selection. It appears that they want to "remake" him and make him climb every step of the ladder--an approach more typical of the "lower-ceiling" pitcher-types. Do they really believe Stewart is "top-of-the-rotation" material?
  9. Are you suggesting that this collapse was due to demoting Milhone? Many consider the loss of Cespedes to be the main reason.
  10. If I may conclude from The Chief, one can see that the oddsmakers have their own bias built into their predictions--to get an equal amount of money on each side of the action. I guess most bettors take a dim view of the Twins (not unreasonably so) so the line is less than last year's win total. I don't wish to justify any win total with an explanation (yet), but ask that Twins Fans realize that not everyone shares their optimism and to use this "bucket of cold water" to deconstruct their estimate of season's wins to examine how much is real and how much is hope.
  11. I am convinced that Milhone will be the first #5 starter this season. He is a veteran, and was acquired by the FO to help "fix" the rotation's problems--therefore, it's his job to lose.
  12. Keep forecasting their demise--eventually you will be correct.
  13. I wish I was wrong, but I firmly believe that Santana, Nolasco, Gibson and Hughes begin the season as the anchor four and Milhone or Pelfrey are a "spot starting" 5th guy. Quite likely there will be one or more significant changes, but that's how I see the rotation on Day 1. May, will begin in Rochester or extended Spring Training.
  14. The Twins (with Ryan) attached themself to the "manage by pitch-count/no-walks" theory long ago. It is pointless to think that that philosophy will change with the current leadership. Meyer is "below standard in BB/9", has "suffered from 'arm issues' the past two years", would be a rookie if promoted--and require the inevitable "growing pains" patience--all in the face of 4 years of losing and attendance reduction. 2015 is not a year to be a rookie pitcher in the Twins franchise. Especially if they don't believe you will reliably take the ball every 5th game and pitch six innings in 100 pitches or less.
  15. The Twins spent a lot of money to ensure that the number of rookie pitchers will be minimized this April. $2.2 MM for the equivalent of what exists in the organization seems questionable to me. If he starts--something has gone very wrong.
  16. It's the function of the Marketing Department to learn what the public wants--and find a good way to provide just that. Condescending on people who just want a "good time" seems to me to be counter-productive.
  17. Change Nolasco to Milhone in your sentence.
  18. Not an arguement but an observation/conclusion.
  19. There are more things happening that developing Meyer, or for that matter May and every other minor league pitcher worth considering for a major league job. The paying fan base is deteriorating--fast! Complaints include more than just losing: games decided too early, unknown and underqualified pitchers, and the admission from management that the pitching is to blame. The executive committee has to fix things fast or risk winning in the future with an empty stadium.
  20. A rather quiet thread for a very competitive team. I am convinced they are in it to the last series--and would not be surprised to see Cleveland in the playoffs. They are at the point the Twins are aiming for in three years.
  21. You might just have well posted: "He might end up like Joe Mauer and miss 90% of the season and 4-6 weeks in each of the next three seasons." When speculating, why hold back?
  22. Apparently the FO wasn't willing to stick their neck out and commit to Meyer and May in the rotation. Else, Santana would't have been signed.
  23. Right now Walker is the most useful of this bunch. Other teams will trade to acquire a potential slugger. Until the Twins demonstrate that they can consistently draft/develop quality ML pitchers, their prospects will be devalued for purposes of trades. Add me to the bunch that questions Kepler as a "prospect".
  24. Referencing the Thread "Interview with AGM rob Anthony", I concluded that the 5th SP job is Milhone's to lose. Thus, Pelfrey's chance is neglible. "Going North" as a relief pitcher?--very high probability. The Twins spent beaucoup for veteran pitchers in an attempt to become competitive--Pelfrey is part of that spending. he will "get a chance" to earn (a little bit) of that largesse spent on him.
  25. Many factors are likely: 1) Defensive shifts; LF and CF move substantially to their right. Line drives/fly balls have very little space to fall in LF. Most teams shift substantially to their left. SS is virtually behind 2B. Mauer has two favorite spots LF line 200 ft + in the air, and grounders right over the mound. Those use to be hits, now they are outs. 2) Expanded K zone; self-explanatory what used to be balls are now strikes. 3) uppercut swing; high fastballs are rugged--reference Arcia and his K-rate around 33%. Also makes off-speed low and away more effective. 4) Mauer used to have dependable protection (Morneau) behind him--opponents not impressed (yet) by hitter behind Mauer.
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