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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Royals series aside, we have a team OPS+ of 92 on the season, and a team ERA+ of 94. There are problems on both sides of the ball.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Just saw this on MLB Trade Rumors: Top Prospect Promotions: Foltynewicz, Ranaudo "At this point, even if both players stay on the MLB roster the rest of the way, they will of course not be able to accrue enough service time to set them up for eventual Super Two qualification." The two pitchers called up were both top 100 prospects entering the season, although ranking notably below Meyer. Both are basically the same age or younger than Meyer, and both have also had similar or worse BB/9 rates this season and throughout their careers (and of course much lower K/9 rates). The younger one is also coming up for a bullpen role, initially. The MLBTR notes on the two indicate "the big question is whether he can develop his secondary offerings" and "he still was work to do refining his change". Apparently you are allowed to do that at the MLB level now?
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree he should move up to AAA, but barring a successful return to MLB in September (and maybe not even then), there's no way this team can pencil him in as the CF for the third straight year, right? The plan has to be to get a viable starter in CF, or at least at SS if Santana holds up in the outfield, regardless of Hicks' final two months.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    His bat seems OK, but the metrics are grading his glove as pretty terrible that last two years. I could see his bat falling quickly too as he leaves a good hitting lineup. Probably shouldn't be anything more than a stopgap DH, assuming he's willing to play for cheap. Same goes for defending NL batting champ Michael Cuddyer, really.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    If we call him up at all in 2014, he should make Super-2, thus get 4 arbitration awards rather than the usual 3. That's not really at issue for us (although Oakland could have made a case for leaving him in AAA longer, given their full rotation). The issue is when he becomes eligible for free agency. Probably not as contentious, because it is not as immediate.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Good catch, I did the math wrong in the original trade thread (I left off the ~5 days he was in MLB at the beginning of July). But yeah, assuming he isn't recalled until his first start later next week, he should have 4 years team control left, through the 2018 season (albeit all at arbitration prices, unless we buy them out).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, he's only at 2.110 right now, so in theory if they left him in AAA the rest of this season, he could miss super-2 status. But I doubt they would do that, the savings would be minimal anyway. The extra year of team control is what is important, and that deadline has already passed if my calculations are correct. EDIT: I was slightly wrong, he's more like 2.115 for service time right now (I left out the 5 days he was in MLB at the beginning of July). Which means we still have to wait a few days before promoting him if we want the extra year of control. Monday, we should be safe to do so. Might still miss Super-2 if he stayed at 2.115 for some reason (i.e. injured before his call-up), not sure what the cut-off will be.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the 90's Twins were generally just desperate, that they tried or tolerated some bad control starters so long. Tapani and Erickson were control guys (or at least lower K guys) and were the mainstays of the early 90's rotations. Smiley, Krueger, Deshaies -- none of our veteran fill-ins before Radke/Tewksbury were hard-throwers either. And Klingenbeck and Hawkins actually weren't bad control guys, for the most part -- they just sucked. Pat Mahomes and Willie Banks would be better examples. None of them were good K guys by the time they reached AAA, though. Rodriguez's early stat lines look a bit more like Gibson's than Meyer's -- good but not elite K rates in the minors, albeit at a younger age, then he had decent results (90-101 ERA+) his first three years in Minnesota despite some poor peripherals. Have no idea about his groundball rate or anything, though -- was likely smoke and mirrors, given his eventual fate.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Nunez is arbitration eligible this offseason for the first time, so he's not going to be super-cheap anymore either (unless we non-tender him and then sign him back, I guess). But he will be cheaper than Plouffe and almost certainly more trusted in the middle infield, if not corner outfield too. I'd guess they probably try to keep him through the winter, at least. If they acquire another MLB CF or infielder, pushing Santana back to SS or Escobar back to utility, Nunez can be traded or cut at that point.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I suggested this option some time ago, after others said we had to wait to move Correia before we could call up Meyer/May. No rule against a 6-man rotation (although it would probably be sub-optimal for a contending team). Of course, at this point, with our AAA starters all healthy and Milone added to the mix, we really don't need to keep Correia around and happy as insurance -- if he's not claimed on waivers, send him to the bullpen or grant him his release so he can hopefully latch on somewhere else, maybe even get his foot in the door somewhere for 2015. We have so many more interesting names to start games at this point, and not much time left to see them in 2014.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I've kinda been resigned to this likelihood... obviously hope he can keep his 2014 hitting going, since he wasn't worth much of anything at a similar salary in 2012-2013. At least we haven't traded Pinto for a relief pitcher... yet...
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know, I kinda like it. The Rays have a pretty good team, no reason they can't contend in 2015 (or even continue their comeback run in 2014). This trade helps that a lot more than some package of prospects.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Bonifacio and reliever Russell to the Braves from the Cubs.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Martin Prado to Yankees too. They are snapping up infielders, not bats...
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins are aware the July 31st deadline was for trades, not extensions, right? Jokes aside, it does seem like a weird time to extend a player. Have there been other contract extensions announced on July 31st in past seasons? I don't recall any....
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    This used to happen (see my Mientkiewicz example from 2004), but I am pretty sure with tweeting and live blogging, anything that gets to the league office by the deadline is getting to the public within minutes too.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, no. If they really wanted a bat, maybe we'd fetch one of those guys for Willingham, but KC would be a detriment to that deal. Can you imagine the (well-deserved) riot among any contending team's fanbase if they added career 83 ERA+ (peak 97, current 79) "I don't want to pitch out of the bullpen" Kevin Correia? Particularly NY. Maybe a more fringe contender will take him out of desperation in August, but the Twins will get virtually nothing in return but salary relief, mark my words.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    True. This confirms mostly what I've been saying: nobody wants to add a Kevin Correia type at the July 31 deadline. (Although I was a bit surprised that someone wanted to add a Sam Fuld at the deadline. ) Mediocre position players are easier to trade -- usually they offer some kind of positional flexibility (Drew) if not upside. Although Willingham and Suzuki have very limited positional flexibility... in any case, KC level mediocre pitchers are more likely to move in August if someone is desperate (for minimal/no return, of course).
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Reports of the Mientkiewicz deal in 2004 only surfaced after the deadline. Of course, nobody was able to live-tweet it either...
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    It appears the dust has settled, and Nick Franklin is the closest thing to a prospect in this deal DET gets David Price SEA gets Austin Jackson TB gets Drew Smyly and Nick Franklin Not crazy about it from the Mariner's perspective. Depending on how you view Franklin, seems kind of low-upside for the Rays considering that Price is still controlled through 2015 (although as I mentioned previously, this return keeps them in the 2014 race more than prospects would have, if that is still a consideration).
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Just saw a good tweet: Smyly and Franklin to Tampa hardly means the Rays are giving up on their 2014 comeback bid either.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Stephen Drew to the Yankees too, for Kelly Johnson.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    While watching MLB Trade Rumors today, I learned the following: All three of the players the Marlins received last July for Ricky Nolasco have been waived since (two within 3 months of the trade, and two have also been waived multiple times). The Marlins also sent some international bonus slot money to the Dodgers in that deal. So basically, the Dodgers had to give up virtually nothing to get Nolasco for a half-season commitment at $5.5 million salary. 5 months later, the Twins guaranteed him $12.5 million per season for the next four years...
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    There is no way the Yankees take both Willingham and Correia, particularly not if they have to give up anything. Actually, maybe taking Correia would be what the Yankees would have to pay to get Willingham.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    By my calculations, Milone is currently at 2 years and 110 days service time (2 years 18 days coming into the year, plus 92 more days before he was optioned on July 5). A player needs 172 service days in a season to get credit for a full season, and there are only 58 days of MLB play left this year, after today. So at best, Milone will finish with 2 years 168 days, or less if we don't activate him until sometime next week. So the Twins should have Milone controlled for the next FOUR seasons, through 2018, albeit at similar cost as he should get arbitration all four years.
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