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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, if anyone here seems guilty for having too high of expectations for Meyer in the near future, it seems like it is the Twins. Most of us on this board fully understand that Meyer will struggle in his first taste of MLB. It's the Twins brass who seem to be dismissing the value of 2014 MLB innings for Meyer, perhaps believing he doesn't need them to be successful in MLB in early 2015?
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Getting Mauer some reps in a corner outfield spot (while it is open anyway) would be the easiest solution. I get that he and the Twins want Mauer to be that everyday, plus defensive first basement that Morneau was, but honestly that's not very valuable (maybe a couple runs a year?). Pretty sure some simple positional flexibility outweighs that.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Love me some 2014 vintage Suzuki, but in my mind he takes a clear back seat to Hughes in this regard. Not only is Hughes performing well, by some measures he is actually underperforming his peripherals, compared to Suzuki who is almost universally over-performing them. Add to it there is a good chance we would have had a ~100 OPS+ catcher anyway. There was no realistic way we were getting a #22 ranking pitcher rWAR season in 2014 from anyone else.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know about $80-100m. He'd have to step up his game over the next couple years to see that at age 30. Right now, he's just moving into the ~4/50 group from last offseason (maybe he's taking Nolasco's spot in that group or Ubaldo Jimenez's spot). Seemed weird that he didn't sign a 1-year deal this past offseason, he would almost certainly get 4/50 this offseason, right? Or thanks to his age, something more like's Garza's 5/65 including options. He already had $15 mil in career earnings, would have certainly had $23 mil after 2014 either way... not sure why he wanted to lock in only the next $16 mil at the same time.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Hughes has been pretty awesome. And even though everyone on this board wanted him and loved the contract, credit to the Twins for making it happen and actually getting good results from him almost immediately. Still, he's only at a 108 ERA+ -- he has previously put up 103 and 101 figures with NY (albeit with slightly lower IP/GS too). The key for him will be, can he repeat this next year? Especially with that crazy low 0.8 BB/9, that might prove difficult for a career 2.8 BB/9 guy to sustain over a long period. Anyway, great to see a borderline ace again on the Twins, at least for the time being. Would love for someone to join him, or even best him as a Radke-level ace...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    This is the kind of sentiment we are discussing, I think. We're better than we were last year, but I don't feel we have 8 "plus" players in our current lineup, nor is our rotation as strong as this suggests. Our best guys on the MLB club right now are mostly average or slightly above performers, some with small samples (Vargas!), and some of the best performers are more likely to regress a bit rather than improve further (Suzuki, Escobar, Santana, Hughes). Few seem to have immediate "plus" potential either, due to age or performance history. And we still have a few big holes (LF, at least 1-2 rotation spots). If "getting there" means "getting close to contention" I don't think we are that close. Our team profile fits our current record pretty well, and we don't seem constructed like a team poised for quick breakthrough in 2015. Maybe 2016, if Buxton/Sano/Meyer/Berrios get/stay healthy next year.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    They could at least give me a month's worth of PAs the rest of the year to find out. Seriously, I do wonder if they have a preference for English-first young signal-callers. They were quick to deal Ramos and thus far quick to move on from Pinto, and they haven't really had any other young Latin American catchers that I can recall. (Henry Blanco, as I mentioned, was already established... Rene Rivera was briefly here too, although that time is best forgotten ) They haven't had much of a Latin American presence on the mound recently either, so if the pitchers have some qualitative say in choosing their receivers (i.e. Perkins preferring Suzuki?), that could be part of it too.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    The 2000 Twins had an average batter age 1.5 years younger than the 2014 Twins, and 3.1 years younger for pitchers. The average batters and pitchers on the 1986 team were also each over a year younger than their 2014 counterparts. Both of those teams also already had an ace starting pitcher. Actually, the '86 team may have had two workhorse aces although Viola had a down year. The 2000 team also had 4 young SP who all had enough experience and past success to be potential contributors from day 1 the following year. The '86 team had 2-3 star/superstar position players too. And back to the point of this thread, there were several not terribly young guys who had decent, average-ish seasons on those teams who ultimately played little or no role in the team's quick resurgence. In addition to those 4 starting pitchers, a big part presaging the 2000-2001 turnaround was Hunter and AJ (24 and 23 years old, respectively, at the time) coming back up from minors in August 2000 and playing well down the stretch and continuing those contributions from day 1 the following season. Who could be those players now? Hicks? Pinto? Would love to see them get that chance. Mientkiewicz was another, although he didn't see much action in 2000 thanks to the Olympics.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    How is it that, in 2014, FSN doesn't carry this game? I mean, I am sure that weekday afternoon ratings won't be very good, but they are bound to be better than whatever else they show (in this case, a replay of last night's game, which is very confusing to say the least). I wonder, since FSN declined to carry it, would the game be available locally for MLB.TV subscribers?
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I read all of your posts as Matthew LeCroy talking into that phone. This one works especially well in that context.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes. I think the Twins made a mistake in 2010 when they thought Ramos was expendable, and he was behind a HoF catcher. Pinto will not be behind a HoF catcher, and in fact appears to have a complementary skill set to our starter.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I get that sense too. Hughes and Gibson are without question improvements and have value going forward, but they are still roughly league average guys. Plouffe is probably the poster boy for this effect on the offensive side -- he's useful but nothing like a "plus" player. Actually, while most are better than Plouffe, our whole lineup seems closer to "useful" rather than "plus" right now too. To actually be competitive and relevant again, we will need multiple "plus" guys around the roster, and right now we barely have any. And that might be the more challenging step than simply finding useful guys to move away from 100 losses. Probably a big part of why I wanted to see Meyer yet this season -- he's our nearest shot at such a SP. And certainly why we have all been so disappointed in the lost seasons of Buxton and Sano.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, most of that improvement so far was a BABIP spike in his 3rd season repeating high-A, at an above league average age too. Seems to be off to a good BABIP start at AA, though. Could Michael be another Beresford? Is he considered a legit defender at SS/2B?
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Is it just me, or do the Twins not like Latin American players in the catcher position? Unless they are already established there from another org, like Henry Blanco...
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah. As of today, Parmelee's 2014 stat line is almost identical to his disappointing 2012-2013 lines. I don't mind him playing out the string this year, but frankly I might rather see Jordan Schafer out there right now. And if/when Hicks is back up, Santana/Escobar should probably see action in LF ahead of Parm too. (Or if we want to get creative, Mauer in LF, Vargas at 1B, and Pinto/Suzuki splitting C/DH.)
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I find it interesting that Arcia is actually younger than Vargas, by about 9 months.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I appreciated Thome too, but I would have appreciated him a lot more if the Twins had signed him back in 2003. Imagine a 150 OPS+, 40+ HR bat added to the Twins lineup from 2003-2008... Or even if we had swung a deal for him before 2006 -- the White Sox basically got him for 4/32 at that point, with the cash that Philly included in the deal. We would have had to give up some talent too, but we'd have been getting back a formidable player (not like the talent we gave up 2 years later to get Delmon Young... arg).
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Good catch. There are another 10 guys ahead of Plouffe from the 2nd and 3rd rounds, including Kurt Suzuki...
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Seems like you're trying to have it both ways -- saying TR didn't sign better guys because of the poor FA market, but then also saying he is limited in his signings by our payroll / media market. I won't dispute that the 2012-2013 FA SP market was fairly thin and that was a factor, but again, there's plenty of evidence that the Twins would have wound up with a similar haul from a better market too, just based on how they prefer to operate, which I feel is a greater factor.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    There are fewer productive draftees than I may have guessed off the top of my head. Looking at the 2002-2003 drafts, Plouffe would place the same or higher; he's a few spots lower in 2005-2006 but in that range. Of course, he's still well below the better players on these lists, but he's lasted 10 years as a pro so far, the last 4 as a regular in MLB, all in the same org -- that's an achievement.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    The updated timing (Tuesday injury, Thursday off day) makes more sense, but I think the Twins should be actively looking for ways to audition players over these remaining 7 weeks. The next 2 weeks of Swarzak mean nothing to us, or to him, really. Could mean a lot more for Guerra, Oliveros, Achter, or even Kris Johnson out of the pen, etc.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    That makes more sense. In any case, if my mop-up man ever needs a walking boot, I think I automatically put him on the DL, with few exceptions.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Wait a minute -- Swarzak was in a walking boot on Sunday, apparently set to be inactive until a Friday re-evaluation... why the heck don't we just put him on the DL? With 2 open spots on the 40-man, that's a perfect time to audition another reliever, if only for a week until Nolasco comes back.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe they were just tweeting this out for the benefit of their top prospects, who will likely be eligible for some sort of disability benefits given their 2014 seasons?
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    As much as Target Field revenue is a factor, you can't simply disregard TR's and the franchise's previous actions either. As much as they could be more active in FA now with more revenue, they have an abundant history of conservatism, not just in the FA market either. Also, last offseason TR guaranteed $86.75 million... but over 10 player seasons, covering the next 4 calendar years. That's still pretty modest, given the average salary for a MLB player is almost $4 million and that's obviously held down by pre-arb guys. Looked at in total, he basically signed 3 FAs at average FA prices. And two of them have looked terrible so far... so if your position is that he was biding his time through the previous two offseasons, waiting for perfect time to strike in FA, that reflects fairly poorly on his GM acumen. Again, I think it is more charitable to TR to assume he adjusted his FA budget/mindset after 2013, rather than he just previously didn't think any FA pitchers could deliver the value of 2014 Nolasco and Pelfrey.
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