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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, the post he was responding to seems to be assessing the nicknaming abilitied of our new manager, which is fair game.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Minor nit, Milone was Super 2 arb eligible this winter, hence his ~$2.7 mil salary.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Nunez? Loser of the 5th starter sweepstakes to the pen? I am glad they finally sent down Hicks too, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here. Hicks was demoted midseason twice under Gardy, and Gardy was never given another CF alternative in spring training except Mastroianni (and Presley, briefly). If the Twins had signed Fuld before the 2013 season, maybe he wins the job out of ST.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks. Those lists are definitely an imperfect measure, but I will grant that the Twins were probably middle of the pack for those seasons (2010-2011), which was an improvement over pre-Sano years. I guess Sano could be the turning point, although I stand by my statement that the Sano transaction itself was pretty much a "one-off deal" in terms of Twins aggressiveness. And since 2012, the Twins have spent more / signed more international amateurs than most simply because they have more slots and a higher bonus allotment, no?
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    It wasn't my argument, but you are looking at the wrong column. Def WAR or dWAR includes the positional adjustment for comparing players to other positions. Corner OF are going to get penalized big by that. You want the UZR column, or Fielding runs (or Rfield at B-Ref). I also wouldn't use PA as your threshold -- go to the fielding leaderboard and use innings to get a more accurate list of full-time outfielders. And by definition, since WAR uses fielding runs above or below average, you will pretty much get a 50/50 split positive and negative. (Unless you're looking at the Lake Wobegon team. ) I guess the original poster could see how those above average guys are distributed among teams, although given the imprecision of WAR, you really shouldn't treat guys just a couple runs below average as definitively below average, especially on defense for a single season.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Hunter is a right handed hitter, "played" (past tense) good defense, and is definitely capable of running out to the CF position.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Brock, it wasn't necessarily options 8-11 that hurt the bullpen last year. It is possible that 4 of our top 7 to open 2014 will not even open 2015 in MLB. And that doesn't even include Duensing.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    A strong argument that it is possible to virtually eliminate any player's MLB adjustment period? Please share!
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Pelf's spring opponent quality score on B-Ref was comparable to our other starters (better than Gibson's and May's). His K/9 was the lowest of the group.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Or 3 months, like Gibson 2013. Or 4+ months, like May 2014. Or 12 months and counting, like Meyer...
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I wanted Hicks in AAA too, but I am a little disappointed in that they seem to have gone with the oldest, most veteran arrangement possible. Boyer in the pen would complete that.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Gardy didn't have alternatives like Schafer & Robinson. Mastroianni and Presley, I guess...
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Those are three great players, with great narratives too. Obviously rooting for the Twins first and foremost, but if the White Sox are the ones to unseat Detroit, I won't be sad about it.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Back to Rodon, I think he's got a much better case for starting in the minors than Bryant. He's almost a full year younger (obviously drafted a year later), with barely a month of minor league experience compared to Bryant's season and a half. Plus he's a pitcher, with a good argument for a reasonable innings cap -- might as well start him slow in the minors this year, so he can come up and finish strong in the majors (I generally dislike potential late-season precautionary shutdowns if a team has a realistic chance at contending). And as much as he will frustrate me as a Twins fan, as a baseball fan I am super-excited to see him. Hopefully the White Sox have a short leash for Noesi and especially Danks.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Even if Correa doesn't beat Buxton to MLB, he could still be a comparable prospect, given that he is 9 months younger. Personally, I don't think Buxton will make MLB this year unless he more or less reprises his 2013 performances, this time split between AA and AAA instead of A and high-A. Given the higher level of difficulty and coming off the lost season, I don't think that's likely -- possible, but not likely. And I feel that if the Twins really expected him to debut this season, that would mean they really expected him to break camp with the club next spring, which suggests they would have kept him in big league camp longer this spring. Buxton's spring training appearance this year felt like the standard token invite for top picks/prospects, rather than a stepping stone for a guy who's likely to be in MLB soon.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree Sano represents a bit of a turning point, although I also think he was a "one-off deal" in that the Twins participated in (and won) a bidding war. (Kepler too, although that was a bidding war of much lower stakes.) They didn't do that before, but they haven't really done it since either -- according to BA, we barely cracked the top 30 international bonus lists for 2010 and 2011, at sub-Kepler levels: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2011/2611344.html http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2012/2613091.html And then in 2012 the new rules took effect, and so far we've played well within the rules. I think the new draft spending rules (and hopefully the next set of international spending rules) actually help the Twins in that regard. Anything that reduces or eliminates those bidding wars is a good thing given the current Twins front office.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Those 2011 guys were pretty decent prospects. Actually by John Sickels' grades, our 2011 list isn't that different than our 2015 list, except for the (admittedly important) addition of two "A" grade prospects at the very top. The fact that many of our 2011 list fizzled out or took longer than expected should be a cautionary tale for projecting our 2015 list.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    That raise to $5 mil was a fairly last-second thing. By that point, I think they had already turned him off with the $3.15 mil offer. Remember, Aiken was already an under-slot guy for the #1 pick, before the physical. So the Astros thought of him as a bit of a value pick, THEN got bad medicals on him -- that's a recipe for disaster. And disaster is a bad thing when you're dealing with something as valuable (and hopefully rare) as a #1 overall draft choice. With the #2 pick the next year as a fallback option (coupled with the #5 pick and slot value which gives them a ton of flexibility), the Astros seemingly made a fairly wise choice, given their already demonstrated valuations, in effectively passing on Aiken and Nix. If Aiken is still a top-10 type guy, though, he's certainly worthy of another high selection. Just probably not at the very top, which was possibly a stretch for him to begin with.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Really? The 2001 opening day roster was 3-4 years younger on average across the board. The 2001 team also had 50% more future pre-FA seasons to look forward to in its lineup and rotation, and 75% fewer future guaranteed FA season obligations among those starters too. The 2015 team is hopefully a building block to future success, but that 2001 team was a *complete* foundation by itself. Hopefully 2015 is close in terms of record, but in terms of build/compositon, 2001 was unique.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    My "player we can't wait to watch" for the White Sox would be Rodon. They should have a fairly short leash for Noesi and hopefully Danks at the back of their rotation. It's just fun to see a guy rocket to the big leagues.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    How much of that is perception, though? I haven't been in Florida, and haven't really been following the reports or quotes coming from down there other than the stats and cuts, but I am more optimistic about this team than the last few years. We were simply a better team in 2014 than past years, at virtually every position. And we have multiple top prospects actually healthy and ticketed for the high minors for a change. Honestly, from afar, I've barely even noticed Molitor and Hunter this year. Pretty sure my positive outlook on the team would be comparable even if it was Gardy and Alex Rios or whoever in those spots.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    With all except Hamburger on the 40-man roster too. If we expand the list, we have recent hard thrower Pryor, plus possibly Thompson & Thielbar, and Darnell the starter too. All 25 or above, all currently on the 40-man roster. Admittedly a couple should be dropped from the roster in the next week, but if the goal was to sort through them at spring training before thinning the herd and establishing a good depth chart, it should be noted that the youngest and probably highest upside of this group were also the first to be optioned out of big league camp. Hamburger, Thompson, and Thielbar, all age 28 with past MLB experience, are the only three in this group to even last into the last two weeks of spring training (excepting May who's starting, of course).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Pressly may have been stashed, but he wasn't retrieved as your plan described. I think you overestimate how much those opporunities get spread around to the lower reaches of that depth chart. If our bullpen was so valuable in the first half, why did we drop 4 veteran relievers who pitched 47% of our first half bullpen innings, and get nothing in return? That doesn't sound like a smart depth chart or balancing the present with the future -- it sounds like spinning their wheels, confirming that all of our mediocre relievers were in fact mediocre. We did it with a few of our offensive spots too. If our bullpen and offense performed well for a time, it was in spite of these decisions. There should be at least one spot in this pen to help identify and develop a potential future asset, outside of the Rule 5 guy. That's all.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Fien was 28 when we signed him, with 6 years of potential MLB control and a career minor league 8.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9. Burton was 30, but still had 2 years of team control, and a career 129 ERA+ in 170 MLB innings. Those were smart gambles of roster spots. A potential 4-man bullpen monster of Duensing-Stauffer-Boyer-Pelfrey, in 2015? Not so much.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    They did this last year. Nine guys saw first half 2014 bullpen action, and the only "stashed options guy" was Tonkin, for 12.1 innings (4% of the bullpen total). Did it help the team win? Did we wind up with additional assets? Did it answer any questions about the future?
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