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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Good for three weeks? He's been limiting his Ks for 3 weeks (which is awesome), but his isolated power and discipline (OBP-AVG) were actually better during the first week of the season than his last 3 weeks. I just don't see what 2 more weeks in AAA honestly means to a guy in Hicks' situation. He's not going to be fully "cured" of confidence/inconsistency problems with 2 more weeks or even another month in AAA. Strike while the iron is hot, I say.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't know if anybody's still tracking this, but according to B-Ref, in the two weeks since this thread was posted, Mauer has hit to the opposite field twice as often as pulled (15 vs 8), and almost as often as he's hit up the middle (15 vs 20). His AVG and ISO in that time are .273 and .091, respectively. He's now at 291 PA since his last HR. And his K rate is climbing back up too. Mauer obviously will get all the time in the world, but at some point, I think we have to assume 2014 is his new normal until he performs otherwise.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    July is insane. Buxton could/should be up in July. And neither of those moves (Hicks now, Buxton July) would have anything to do with our 2015 record or how Schafer/Robinson perform (given their 4th/5th OF upside). These moves would have to do with preparing for 2016. A couple months starting in CF for both Hicks and Buxton will aid our offseason planning (and trade deadline planning, in Hicks' case) and should be beneficial for the players too going into 2016.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I fully endorsed sending Hicks to AAA to begin the year, regardless of his spring training or our other CF options. That said, if a month of .330/.412/.553 with a career high ISO and almost a career low K% (while maintaining his usual plus BB%) isn't enough to swap him for an under-performing Jordan Schafer (who's had nagging injuries?), then the Twins really should have gotten a better alternative for CF this past offseason. Throughout his career, Hicks has been a bit Jeckyl-and-Hyde, not unlike Pelfrey. An extra month of AAA isn't going to change that. If he's having a Jeckyl year now, let's take advantage.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    They do that sound at Target Field too. I first heard it ~10 years ago for free throws at a Wolves game. Works better in that context, I think.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I think he must be hurt. Wasn't there some analysis of his arm angle indicating that this spring? At least, he was pitching differently trying to avoid getting hurt?
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, Hunter probably isn't that far from Hammer 2012-2014 as an overall performer these days. Below average defender, above average bat. Hopefully a little more healthy/consistent. That was kinda my beef with the signing, that replacing Willingham was our top offseason priority.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    We do have yet to play a game against the AL East, or the two division leaders in the West, or interleague (those 4 games against St Louis will be a tough test -- although too bad we're not getting our "rivalry" games against Milwaukee right now!). Last year, when we started 23-21, we played a better mix of competition than we have so far this year. Our two sweep losses were to Oakland and the Dodgers, who were the best teams in baseball at the time IIRC. But otherwise, we had performed well against each division, including 4 series wins against 4 different AL East teams, a sweep of KC, etc.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Keep in mind sample size. A one month sample of a defensive runs estimator doesn't necessarily mean anything for the full season (like any other stat really, i.e. Pelfrey's ERAs this year and last year). It wouldn't surprise me if Hunter had a similar average to above average month by this measure during his time in Detroit too (although Fangraphs doesn't let me break down fielding stats by month, probably for the better, though). That said, there is a good chance he is not as bad as he was measured overall in Detroit, and it is certainly possible that he manages to finish the season more or less average. Just that the current month sample isn't really a good indicator of that (especially when another defensive runs estimator -- DRS -- already disagrees substantially).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    This is starting to get fun! Now on to my obligatory nitpicking... Ricky Nolasco with his second straight bare-minimum win. Boxscore says that Schafer came in to play CF and moved Robinson to LF, would be curious how Molitor decides these things.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think you can plan around a player being as good as quickly as Howard or Lincecum, though. Howard and Lincecum were both older, more polished, immediate superstars, and had a lot more "obvious" value (HR, RBI, Cy Youngs, as opposed to speed and defense) than Buxton. And as much as we love the comparable, I don't think we can plan on him being Trout 2.0 either. I probably under-estimated it, but I'd still guess that $10 mil is the absolute top-end cost of Super-2, with something like $5 mil being the more likely cost (which would be reduced further by any buyout deal). And with that, you can get two extra months of MLB contributions from the player too, and you still reserve the right to re-evaluate and demote the player if necessary, pausing the service time clock. Injury would also be a factor that can reduce future earnings, and we know that Buxton and his style of play are not immune to that! Which could reduce the above numbers a bit further. Wil Myers and Gregory Polanco are a couple guys who came up after the Super 2 deadline recently, but the delay probably didn't gain their teams much of anything (although it probably didn't cost them much either).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Part of the new "Statcast" data this year.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Late to the thread, but if others are in the Twins blackout region, I recommend the "Hola" browser extension. Clicked it, clicked the British flag to say I am in that region, and then loaded up the free game of the day, no problem. Hola (I used the Firefox extension): http://hola.org Today's game: http://mlb.mlb.com/shared/flash/mediaplayer/v4.5/R7/MP4.jsp?calendar_event_id=14-414076-2015-05-07&content_id=&media_id=&view_key=&media_type=video&source=MLB&sponsor=MLB&clickOrigin=Media+Grid&affiliateId=Media+Grid&team=mlb
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, the CF problem (and more generally the OF problem) started when Buxton was barely a glimmer in our eyes 2-3 years ago. And he was reassigned from MLB camp (despite good health) very quickly in both 2013 and 2014 spring trainings, so I am not sure the team was really expecting to fast-track him at those points. But I hope you're right about this past offseason. That would mean they promote Buxton aggressively, and perhaps even skip him ahead of Hicks. Would be fun to see!
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Hunter or more likely Arcia could shift to DH too. I hope Vargas is heating up, but I don't know if he's untouchable. (Nor is Arcia, for that matter.) Hicks might be improved but not untouchable, everyday good either. I'm thinking if these guys are all healthy and ready to contribute, we can fit them all in (remember, Eduardo Escobar started 4 straight games in LF even before Arcia's injury). Imagine having legit bats off the bench and/or defensive replacement options...
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    If you are referring to Trout, the Angels played no such service time games with him. I think the Bryant situation was notable because such a move from a big-market team has been rare. The main culprits, I think, have been the Rays and Astros. And service time is the big one, and the Twins are already past that being an issue unless they hold him down until May 2016. Super Two might mean cost us a couple extra million if he turns out to be great, but that should be of no consideration to the Twins now (and I don't believe that it is).
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, the "advanced" pitching statistics are better predictors than the traditional ones (like ERA). Gibson's advanced stats were better than his actual ERA in 2013 and 2014, which had been cited here as a reason for optimism about him. Of course, nothing is great predictor in this small of a sample, but Gibson's odd season is worth keeping an eye on.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    True, but I believe SIERA incorporates ground ball rates, and Gibson's SIERA is actually notably worse than his FIP or xFIP. (I am not really familiar with SIERA, however.)
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    So you don't think he would have made the team out of spring training, even without the concussion? I think most of us here know there are nuances to the catcher position. I am not sure if these nuances are best learned as Deduno's personal catcher in 2014, or repeating AAA at age 26 in 2015... Besides, Pinto's bat might be equal or better than Vargas. Pinto's overall hitting (by wRC+) has been comparable or better than Vargas's at the same age at every level above low A ball. I'm not sure that's something a team like the 2015 Twins can afford to leave in AAA indefinitely for refinements.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Mauer struck out once in high school, and he still got to skip AAA.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    With a pitching prospect (and to a lesser degree, any prospect), the value of an extra season of control 7 years from now is highly speculative. If you are confident in your current evaluation of him (and the Marlins track record suggests such confidence is warranted), I'd rather err on the side of present-day performance. Look at the Twins and Liriano -- they did not play any service time games with him in 2005-2006, and in fact didn't get much value out of his first 3 months service time either (September call-up and then almost 2 months of mop-up bullpen work). But his later injury (not unexpected, by the way) made it all moot in terms of cost/leverage. Lo and behold, Fernandez also suffered a not-unpredictable injury. He hasn't lost any service time due to it yet, but his lost season will likely lower his future cost and leverage (and his recovery may easily warrant a minor league assignment which could gain them that extra year of control anyway), even if he does eventually return to being a star pitcher.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    That is also true. But they are not shy about promoting prospects (and they have a very good track record about it).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    But that means if you call him up for September 2015, you have to keep him down until almost June 2016 to get that extra year. Given the options the Twins currently have, if Buxton plays even modestly well, it might be very difficult to keep him down that long in 2016. The Angels did not extend their years of control in their demotions of Mike Trout. (Of course, he was up for about 2 months in 2011, and down for less than a month to begin 2012.)
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    As Seth has noted, Beresford has seen less SS action as he'd moved up the minors (getting almost zero now), and has never been anything more than an emergency 3B. Maybe he doesn't have the arm to move off of 2B?
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    The Blue Jays webmaster might be a funny person too.
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