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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Any player on the 40-man on Sep. 1st is eligible for the postseason roster, so that covers Meyer already. (If he's not on the 25-man roster on Sep. 1st, we'd just need someone on the DL for him to technically replace -- actually, maybe Ervin Santana since he is ineligible for the postseason.) Burdi isn't rushing to claim a 40-man spot yet, and I doubt that Jay would get one within 3 months of being drafted if he will require a starting conversion.
  2. Not really, if you consider DH an open competition. Besides, Plouffe is good, but he may not be "162 games played" good. He's on pace for 156 right now (if you discount the two he missed for a funeral). Indeed his career high for starts is 135. And he's often considered our backup 1B too, for a guy who also is not a "162 games" player (Mauer). There's plenty of opportunity to break in Sano against MLB pitching, and get him to see a little action at 3B too. Positional concerns shouldn't delay Sano's MLB debut until September 2015 or later.
  3. In fairness to Finnegan, they've barely allowed him to work on starting. He's been back and forth between roles and levels all season. His high pitch count is only 62, so it's not as if he's really had a chance to fail as a starter yet.
  4. Just for the Twins, I assume? Are there other examples around the league? I really don't know.
  5. I see the other side of it too -- having a relief ace available every game is a nice weapon, but in practical terms it's unlikely to work out that well. A starter is always a factor -- a reliever may or may not be, due to circumstances entirely out of his control. In the conference tournament this year, which Illinois entered as the #1 seed, they went 2-2 and lost in the semifinals, with Jay making only 2 appearances in 4 games -- a 1 inning, 1 run save, and the last 1.1 innings of the final game (a 2-run loss). In the regional tournament, Jay appeared only once and it was impressive (4 shutout innings) but it ultimately wasn't critical as they swept their double-elimination bracket in 3 games. In the super regional, they lost 13-0 in the opener to face elimination. Then, in the elimination game, they asked Jay to make only his second career start (his first being a non conference tune-up on Feb. 15), and asked him to pitch a career high 6.1 innings. And he lost it by giving up 5 hits and the 2 go-ahead runs in the 6th and 7th inning, before departing with 1 out and 2 runners on in the 7th. It doesn't look like the greatest management of resources.
  6. One of the Illinois starters only had a 2.4 K/BB ratio this past season (although he also pitched 5 games in relief). That same starter also led the team in unearned runs allowed, which would have raised his ERA by more than a full run -- and he lost the semifinal game knocking them out of the conference tournament (after being the #1 seed) by allowing 5 unearned runs (a game Tyler Jay mopped up in). Another starter gave up 7 runs in 4 innings to lose their super-regional opener, before they turned to Tyler to start the next game facing elimination (where he lost, giving up 10 hits and 4 runs in 6.1 innings). Looks like a team that could have benefitted from developing and deploying another SP ace, if they had one available. And why was Jay relegated to the bullpen the previous season? Looks like that team gave 16 starts to league average or worse pitchers, finished in 3rd place, and lost in the 2nd round of the Big Ten tournament, thanks to a blowup by other relievers in the 8th inning. Again, not a result that looks particularly smart if they kept one of the best pitchers in the nation in reserve.
  7. Thielbar was also being used in very low-leverage situations. Tied for 6th on the club in game-entering leverage index for 2013 with Swarzak, just ahead of Rule 5'er Pressly. Still, I'm all for auditioning some new bullpen blood, even if it was low-leverage to begin with.
  8. Yup. Team control, we are long past, at least until May 2016. And we should be past Super 2 now too, hence the Correa call-up. Sano is the particularly vexing one. He lost a season last year, but he's already on the 40-man so it costs us very little to call him up this season. He's also slightly older than Buxton with a lot more pro experience. He should be in a position to be called up any day now -- if not to MLB today, then at least see how he adapts to a AAA promotion right now, with an eye toward MLB. Waiting until midseason for AAA and/or September for MLB just doesn't make sense for him.
  9. Huh? I don't mind Hicks at the moment, but he's got the same OPS and ISO that he posted last year, for a 73 OPS+. Hopefully those things starting moving up with a better approach, but he hasn't locked down anything, and he certainly should not be an impediment to Buxton at this point (especially with uncertainty in both corners -- can Rosario keep it up, and how often should Hunter play the field). Hicks as 4th OF (still getting a lot of starts) would be a real sign of strength and improvement for our OF and on our team. As it is, we've still been giving a lot of OF starts to Escobar and even some to Robinson (who is batting .088 the past month).
  10. I don't think that's really what the author is suggesting here. Just that Correa was probably the most similar prospect to Buxton in terms of age/level/rank, and his promotion likely means that Buxton won't be far behind. It's just a matter of time, and that time might be short. By Baseball America, 4 of their top 6 prospects have already made their MLB debuts in 2015, the only holdouts being Buxton and Seager (who has spent most the year in AAA). Of their top 12 position player prospects, only Buxton, Sano, and 2013 draftee JP Crawford have yet to even play in AAA.
  11. Interesting exercise. Moustakas with the bat was pretty bad until this year, but it would be hard to take Plouffe over him right now.
  12. Actually the Milone announcement came several days prior to his call-up.
  13. Sano's career AA OPS is better than Pederson's, and very close to Gallo too.
  14. I am pretty sure in a universe where service time isn't an issue, Bryant's 2014 numbers get a call-up in September if not earlier. As it was, they knew that any 2014 call-up would make their 2015 scheme harder to implement.
  15. But they've announced the first half of moves before, like Milone last week, and I seem to recall Hicks a month ago.
  16. I would guess Santana back to SS, with Escobar/Nunez at 3B. But Sano would have a great case, especially since he is already on the 40-man roster and already using an option year.
  17. On the subject of Gallo, who came up after Beltre's injury -- what happens if Plouffe gets hurt and requires a DL stint? Looking at the 40-man roster, I think I'd bring up Sano to fill the spot, even just temporarily. (And based on that, I think he should be up in AAA soon and in consideration for the MLB DH job shortly thereafter.)
  18. We all know why Bryant's path to MLB was slow, and it didn't have much to do with his development as a player. And Pederson's was slowed by a very crowded (and expensive) Dodger outfield. Sano now has 482 PA at the AA level, more than Gallo, Bryant, and Correa, and virtually the same as Pederson (519 PA). Maybe he's not ready to jump to MLB but if not, he should be in AAA very soon, no?
  19. A-Rod's defensive performance doesn't seem out of reach for Correa. The only metric that covers A-Rod's entire SS career is Total Zone, which grades him out as 2 runs per season above average. The same metric has Smith at 13 and Simmons at 21 (!).
  20. Do the Royals have that big of a following in Korea, though? I remember it was generally represented as one "super fan". Perhaps he has recruited others there to follow the Royals, but still, online balloting isn't new. If it was that easy to have this huge of an effect, you'd think something like this would have happened before. You would think a strong Korean voting bloc would get Jung Ho Kang to appear in the top 5 at his position as a write-in candidate too, no? (Too bad he's not on the ballot.)
  21. Does anybody have a list of successful college reliever to MLB starter conversions? Honest question, I just don't know.
  22. I think someone else referenced this upthread, but apparently the Illinois coach wanted to use Jay more frequently, which is why he was in the bullpen. His team did have a few pretty good starters, and Jay pitched almost as many innings this year as their 3-4 starters. That said, he was pretty clearly the best pitcher on the team, especially in their previous season.
  23. What's the theory on why this is only happening in 2015? Paper balloting went away this year, but I doubt that was a major factor. Online balloting has been around for years, with the ~35 per person ballot limit.
  24. The article also makes this statement: Of course, the young Astros are one of the biggest surprises in baseball, and no one will be shocked if they fade later this year -- but this writer already has his narrative in place! Interesting that he doesn't mention any current Cardinals -- is St. Louis worried?
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