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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    You can isolate just the Hunter at-bat in Gameday Classic: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2015_06_10_kcamlb_minmlb_1&mode=classic Everything was by the rulebook zone until the last pitch (was by Brooks Baseball was still in the typical zone). The last pitch was closer to the zone than the two outside balls called earlier. Hunter had a very similar pitch called a strike on him in his 6th inning at-bat (where he ultimately drew a walk). Interestingly, Hunter didn't swing at any of the 11 pitches he saw in the 6th or 8th inning -- wonder if he was "testing" the ump by that point?
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Here is the strike zone map from last night's game: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/zoneTrack.php?month=6&day=10&year=2015&game=gid_2015_06_10_kcamlb_minmlb_1%2F&prevDate=0610 Only one strike call fell outside the typical zone (checked line), and it was to the benefit of a Twins pitcher (red square). And it looks like Twins pitchers only lost 1-2 calls that should have been strikes (green squares), as compared to perhaps 5-6 for Royals pitchers (green triangles).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I think umpires have started cracking on down on any arguments, since the shift to replay. If Molitor came out primarily to clarify what just happened and to restrain Torii, that probably would have been fine, but Molitor instantly started complaining to the ump too. That's not tolerated anymore.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Good article, thanks for posting! The projections haven't done an about-face on the Twins. Fangraphs projected them preseason at a .457 winning percentage, and they project them at .453 from here out. The only difference now is the good luck of the first two months has to be added in. (What would prompt a real about-face would be a change in personnel, or some players reaching a new projectable performance level, neither of which really applies (yet) to the Twins since opening day, sadly.) As for the projections indicating a dogfight, the entire AL is looking like that. All three divisions have only a projected end of season 7-8 win spread, and the whole league only has a projected 11 win spread (down to 9 if you lop off the Yankees). The two worst projected teams (Twins and Rangers) have gotten off to good starts, a few more under-.500 projected teams (Astros and Rays) have also done well, and all five of the original projected playoff teams are currently under .500 (Red Sox, Indians, Mariners, Angels, and Tigers). Regress all those to the mean, and assume neutral luck going forward, and indeed everyone is bunched up! It will be interesting to see how it plays out -- will some of these good "bad" teams keep it up? Will some of the bad "good" teams indeed turn it around?
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    For 2015, Stauffer has a 0.6 average game-entering Leverage Index at B-Ref, ahead of only Graham. For 2014 with the Padres, he was at 0.7, lowest on the team among relievers with more than 15 appearances. Which gives you an idea of how he was viewed by the Padres (and in what environment he compiled his decent numbers there).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Kennys Vargas solid but unspectacular 2014 performance at DH was 1-1.5 WAR prorated to 3.5 months. Given his pedigree, Sano probably has a fair chance of matching that (if not exceeding it) -- and more importantly, sustaining it.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Sano could DH most days, and play 3B on the days Plouffe or Mauer are off (which should be frequent in the latter case). If we give Vargas a few more weeks and he claims the spot, then I suppose you could throw Sano into RF for a few games -- by that point, our lineup would feel like the '27 Yankees compared to now, so who cares? But I don't know if that's super-likely, so I wouldn't mess with Sano's position yet with that expectation. (Just like I wouldn't mess with Plouffe's under the assumption that Sano will instantly hit and be able to stick at 3B)
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Good point about winter ball, and the early end to the minor league season. July 1st isn't a bad target, but I'd err on the side of earlier rather than later, so if he doesn't have instant success, he's got some time to adjust (either in MLB or back in AAA).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Point is, you can't dismiss any one of those potentialities as "only 1 or 2 extra wins"
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I guess if the Twins are still in it that late, most anything should be on the table. But if he's anything short of a revelation in his minor league innings this year, it's probably not worth it. Finnegan had the benefit of being protected way down the KC depth chart -- he was almost a complete non-factor in the regular season, and primarily only proved useful in a couple postseason extra innings games. I think a fresh reliever for the Twins could be more quickly exposed. So, unless Jay can come up and sustain domination, we're probably better off using the 40-man spot to keep another prospect this winter, and not burning Jay's option years until we have some idea of how the starter conversion will go.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Plouffe definitely was streaky in 2012, although less so the past few seasons. But you're right, most players of his overall quality will look "streaky" when looking at their monthly splits. More unusual would the average hitter who was roughly average every single month.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    That was 2 days ago, although admittedly he hasn't looked good in these 2 games. (Not that he was going to be a savior, just offered more potential than Escobar/Nunez at DH. I fully endorse seeking other options at DH too.)
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Why not let Sano continue to play 3B in Rochester? Ryan Wheeler can take a seat or shift around the field instead. I don't think we really need Sano in the OF right now, particularly since he's behind Buxton in that line. And not messing with his defensive position seems like it would make the smoothest transition.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    This could be said about almost any player. Plouffe was a 3.6-3.9 WAR player last year, which is 1 or 2 wins over a 2-3 month period. (And indeed he's been worth 1.3-1.7 WAR over this season's first 2 months.) We need more contributors on that level in our lineup. We've got 4 regulars around zero WAR right now, could be 5 if you don't like Hunter's defense, and that's still not counting Rosario or Hicks who aren't out of the woods yet (currently performing at prorated 1.2-2.4 season WAR paces).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know if Hicks is the "least" -- he's basically tied for last among our current regulars in OPS with Suzuki, Escobar, and Vargas. He is providing some defense and base running value, but all's not well with his bat quite yet. And Buxton could simply push Hicks to a corner, and Hunter to DH, and Vargas out of the lineup (or more time at 1B if he gets going and Mauer does not). And hopefully prevents a reoccurrence of "Escobar, starting LF/DH".
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    You're probably right, although I would say a promotion is not necessarily just about helping the club this year. It could very well help Sano as a hitter too. And regardless of the positional issues at the MLB level, there's no reason he couldn't slide up to AAA right now. Even if the league itself isn't that much more challenging than a good AA league, seeing how he quickly he adapts to a change in circumstances could inform how and when to time his eventual MLB promotion too.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Could be that's the only way he can have success, though. For all we know, he's tried a different approach and it failed very quickly and spectacularly and he went back to what works, pending a better plan and to maintain his present career course.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    This is what I was going to say too. He's actually not unlike Pelfrey in that regard, who was pretty up-and-down with Mets and is just finally getting around to having an "up" period in a Twins uniform. Obviously it would be awesome if guys like that could be better and more consistently good, but I wouldn't expect or rely on it happening. We need to add another bat in the middle of the lineup. (I was half-expecting this article would riff on bringing up Sano...)
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorry, didn't mean for that to sound critical of the front office. But Pinto and Vargas weren't great bets to be middle of the order bats in 2015, so it's hard to blame the player too much. Arcia should have been able to repeat his 2013-2014 performance, which would have helped (although I guess he was starting to repeat that performance when he got hurt, which is another issue he's had).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Wainwright is a bit better example than the earlier mentioned ones, because he did scuffle some at AAA although it was the PCL. I will note that there was a LOT more data to formulate a plan for Wainwright -- he was a HS draftee with more than twice the number of career minor league innings as Meyer to date. (By their respective 24th birthdays, Wainwright had almost four times as many career innings as Meyer.)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    See, I'd rather get him acclimated to MLB pitching before we are still in the hunt in August, because he might be worthless this year or he might need a month or two to get going at this level, and it's best to have that information earlier. The nice thing about acting early is that you still have plenty of time to change course. If Sano's bat takes off, maybe you can live with some delayed 3B development, and you've got an answer for the not-unlikely event of a Plouffe injury (or even a Mauer injury, with Plouffe sliding over to 1B). If his bat is shaky (or the team fades), you can always send him back down and you still have time to look for or audition another bat. Wait until August and you can't really do that -- by that point, it's Sano or bust.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    True, but that was a known risk. Pinto has never really profiled as a middle-of-the-order bat, and both Vargas and Arcia were not that far above average as hitters last year with somewhat alarming peripherals.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    If you are promoting Buxton and benching Vargas, why not bring up Sano? He can get a good number of DH reps and some 3B ones too for any Plouffe or Mauer injuries or days off (days that Hunter can take at DH too). Then Hicks can be a more frequently used 4th OF, and you can push Robinson off the roster. The fewer guys on the roster who should *never* be starting, the better.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Fulmer was a reliever as a freshman, and transitioned to starting as a sophomore. Full-time starter as a junior. Tate barely pitched as a freshman (3 innings), was a reliever as a sophomore, and a full-time starter as a junior. Neither of those paths seems unusual. Kyle Gibson basically did that too. I too would be interested if anyone (other than Duffey) has successfully followed the proposed Jay path.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    He's no rock star, but actually, Oliveros might have a better shot a making our roster next year than pending free agents Stauffer and Duensing (and Boyer, for that matter). He's cheap, with 6 years of team control, and even an option remaining, I think (if we don't use it up this year). Meaning he could make the 40-man roster without making the 25-man roster. I'd rather audition him and/or Achter, Tonkin, etc. than continuing to trot out expensive veteran placeholders.
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