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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I posted in the other thread, but O'Rourke didn't fare well vs Gardner in 2015 (1 hit and two walks in 3 PAs). And the alternative to not LOOGYing isn't to let them beat you -- I also noted that May and Duffey are about as effective (by wOBA) vs LHB this year as O'Rourke is for his MLB career. You can deploy May and Duffey (and of course Rogers) over those LHB spots, if you want, and get equal or perhaps better effectiveness than O'Rourke -- and they can even stay in to face more than 1 batter, or be useful in other game situations too. Perez has been more effective than O'Rourke vs Gardner for sure -- only 2 hits and 1 HBP in 11 PA, with 3 K's. So he could be a LOOGY matchup option for him, if necessary, in addition to being capable of eating some innings in other situations. (Gregorious has 2 HR in 10 PA vs Perez, though -- maybe a matchup to avoid?) https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/batter_vs_pitcher.cgi?request=1&submitter=1&pitcher=perezma02&min_year_game=2012&max_year_game=2019&post=1&opp_id=NYY&bats=L&c1gtlt=gt&c2gtlt=gt&orderby=PA&orderby_dir=desc&orderby_second=Name&orderby_dir_second=asc
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    This is all so silly. We *know* players play through things all the time without telling their teams. It drives us nuts sometimes when we hear about it after they struggle (although sometimes I suspect it's used as an excuse in those cases, rather than being a direct cause). It seems especially likely that players might withhold a condition when it appears to have no impact on performance. Dyson said it first started bothering him after the all-star break in Colorado. His stats with the Giants, beginning with that Colorado series right up to the trade: 7 G, 7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 K How many MLB players would report a condition if those are the results they are getting while playing through it? And what incentive would Dyson have to lie to cover for the Giants, then or now? Some of these accusations make zero sense. That said, I understand if the Twins want to double-check the record, just to make sure -- player transactions are worth millions of dollars to them. But I'm doubtful they come up with anything meaningful, I'm highly doubtful that there was any shenanigans on the part of the Giants, and frankly it's not that big of a deal -- as good as his minor league season was, Davis didn't figure much into the Twins present or future plans.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Because what happened with Odorizzi is very rare? Because the Twins and Giants are different teams, with different staffs and cultures? Because Dyson and Odorizzi are different players, in different roles, and likely had different conditions that affected them in different ways? Seriously, we've seen TONS of players reveal injury only after a bad stretch of play. Why do we assume that Dyson must have reported soreness, or that the Giants must have detected it, during a stretch of 7 scoreless appearances?
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Teams set their rosters in advance of each round, so they can change between series. Injured players can be replaced on the roster during a series, but the injured player is ineligible to return that series *or* the next series. And you can only replace an injured pitcher with another pitcher, or an injured position player with another position player. The exception is concussions. A player with an acute concussion would be eligible to return after 7 days. Not sure if that applies to catchers only? Anyway, it's an argument for leaving Astudillo off the roster, as we could more easily bring him in as a replacement if necessary. https://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3549
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Anyone can be on the bench. So Gibson could still be with the team, even if he's not on the roster.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Blanco pretty much played like a backup catcher, just in more at-bats. 60 OPS+, -0.4 bWAR. Maybe he was a crazy good pitch framer or something, I suppose. Joe Mauer got hurt on April 6, 2004. The Blue Jays signed Gregg Zaun on April 9 -- without Blanco in the fold, would we have signed Zaun instead? Zaun went on to post a 96 OPS+ and 2.3 bWAR that season for the Jays. Not that it probably would have made much difference in the end. Although you could argue we should have signed someone like Zaun anyway, even with Blanco, and our season wouldn't have had to end with 41 year old Pat Borders on the field...
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps they would have been mentioned if the article title had read "Bust" instead of "Best". Perhaps the article would have been deleted then too. And whoever posted it would have been sacked.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, the Yankees are lining up their rotation as follows: 1. Paxton 2. Severino 3. Tanaka 4. opener (Green) / Happ It was long suspected that Severino would be limited as a starter, but he's thrown 67 and 80 pitches his his two starts so far, covering 4 and 5 innings respectively, with one start remaining. He may be deployed as something close to a traditional starter yet. Of course, it would be ideal to jump on him like we did in the 2017 wild card game and render his pitch count moot.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Dobnak for 3 or 4 innings to kick off a bullpen game may not be all that different from an Odorizzi start. Odo averages 5.1 innings per start this season. (Not a knock on Odo, as that's the league average for SP now too.) I get that groundballer Dobnak sounds like a better fit for Yankee Stadium than flyballer Odorizzi, but at a single game level, things really aren't that predictable. Odo pitched a gem in Yankee Stadium for a win back in April (admittedly without Judge), and then got roughed up at Target Field vs the Yankees in July (with Judge back but with Sanchez out). I don't know if we want to get too cute with our planning based on these factors. The prospect of Dobnak/Perez going back-to-back in games 3 and 4 and taxing the pen is perhaps something to avoid, but then again -- isn't that why you have a 12 man staff? And those two games are buffered from the rest of the series by scheduled off days (weather permitting*). * A weather postponement in game 3 or 4 could erase the off day after game 4. And actually, such a postponement would allow the game 1 starter to throw game 4 on normal rest, as well as the game 2 starter throwing in game 5 on normal rest. Perhaps not likely, but another benefit of throwing your best SPs first.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought this topic sounded familiar! http://twinsdaily.com/topic/34554-is-cruz-the-best-twins-fa-signing-ever/
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, you need to get to the World Series in order to accumulate World Series stats. And Verlander is 7-0 with a 2.38 ERA in the ALDS, and 6-3 with a 2.95 ERA in the ALCS. Kershaw's been iffier, but his teams are 8-3 in his 11 NLDS starts too. I wouldn't say their World Series stats in isolation have much meaning in this conversation, as the Twins try to set their ALDS rotation.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Worth remembering that Dobnak only has two "real starts" in MLB so far. His first 6 games were all long relief / mop-up / opener appearances. It's encouraging that he did well overall in his "real start" vs. Cleveland, after they had seen them twice already, although 8 baserunners in 5 innings to an average-ish offense is a little risky. 5 of the first 8 batters reached in that game, before Dobnak was bailed out by a DP ball off the bat of Ryan Flaherty. Dobnak is supposed to be a bit of groundball artist, but will he face a Ryan Flaherty in the postseason to allow him to escape a rocky start? His other start vs CLE (as an opener), the first 4 batters of the 2nd inning reached base, and Dobnak was able to escape thanks to a baserunning error, then retiring the 8 and 9 hitters -- a backup catcher and Yu Chang, two more types of batters he may not see in the postseason. The start vs KC had more strikeouts, but also 7 baserunners in 5.1 innings, versus the second-worst offense in the AL. 4 walks/HBP, 2 of the leadoff variety to their 8 and 9 hitters. HOU/NYY may not be as forgiving. I mean, it's still amazing that he's doing this in MLB right now, given his backstory -- but I think I would have liked to see him tested by better offenses before building much of a postseason strategy around him. (Next and last start, probably against Detroit, unfortunately.) Not that Smeltzer's long relief stint vs the Yankees makes him a better option, though. I guess opener of a bullpen game, with a short leash, may not be too bad.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    It is a cool story so far, although comparing him to the 2017 draft class isn't quite perfect -- a guy like Mackenzie Gore could very well be pitching well in MLB now if his team was better and/or his future value wasn't so high. Nate Pearson? Maybe Jo Adell too? Not many, but by comparison, Dobnak has the "benefit" of his team doing well right now and not really caring about his future ceiling/control. Still, that's a relatively minor factor. Very, very cool what Dobnak has been able to accomplish so far.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you'd still rather pitcher Berrios in game 1 -- he can be good, but he's not quite a "lock" to go 7+ innings like, say, Verlander. (Very few people are!) And Dobnak's hook would likely be dependent, at least in part, on how well Berrios does -- do you treat Dobnak as a traditional starter trying to work deep, or do you look at it as a quasi-bullpen game and pull Dobnak in the right situation/matchup? To best inform that decision, you want to already know how deep Berrios pitched in his game. The trickle-down effect on games 3-4 should be minimal either way, as they are buffered by off days. And in extreme circumstances, like a rain delay or early exit in game 1, you might want the option to bring Berrios back for a game 4 start. Unlikely, but sort of like like what the Twins did with Johan in 2003, or even in 2004, although hopefully with better results.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Technically Trout isn't on the IL either, so I'd say it's a wash between him and Gibson.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Pizza in the morning, pizza in the evening, pizza at suppertime... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pQBan9MOy60
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, only our last 10 vs NY in the playoffs. World of difference! Last 13 overall in the playoffs, though, which includes our 2006 sweep by Oakland.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    We should have signed Lew Ford. He just turned 43 last month, and he slashed .313/.365/.434 in the Atlantic League this year. Was the hitting coach too! https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=ford--001jon http://www.liducks.com/ducks/roster/index.html?player_id=90 If we had signed him before September 1st, we could have even taken advantage of his career .300/.364/.400 postseason slash line!
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Hey, if you play the guy who needs a fresh start, you may improve your draft position. If another team wants him, you can trade him for international bonus pool money, or for a low minors lotto ticket. It's effectively the same thing. (I'm not sure I want to expand the trading of draft picks, even low ones.) Of course, it's also possible no team wants him that badly, and will simply wait to put in a claim when he is inevitably waived. Actually, with the ban on trading 40-man roster guys in August/September, I wonder if this "we've-got-to-get-something-in-return-for-him" mentality could hurt a team. Maybe we really are ready to move on from Stewart, or even Diplan, and we might rather take a look at Alcala or Jax right now -- but the only way to clear Stewart or Diplan off the roster at the moment is to lose him on waivers or release them. So we feel stuck with them until after the season/postseason.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    It's definitely fair to question why Stewart was out there with no one else getting loose in the pen. It was only 6-3 at that point, with 4 innings left, and Corbin was already at 92 pitches so we were going to see the Nats bullpen for at least 3 of those innings. Stewart hadn't pitched anywhere in over 2 weeks, and wasn't very effective before that either (5.64 ERA in MLB in 2019 before last night, 5.14 ERA at AAA too). Now Stewart's season ERA in MLB in up to 6.66, which is always a good sign! We were willing to have May and Rogers get loose in the 8th inning down by 4 runs -- it boggles the mind that we wouldn't have at least Hildy, Harper, or Thorpe getting loose in the 6th in case Stewart scuffled. The Twins active roster contains 18 healthy pitchers right now!
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    To get to the other side?
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, the 6th run was charged to Gibson and scored on a passed ball by Garver -- so maybe if the bullpen *and* catching holds, it would have been a 6-5 win. Otherwise, if just the bullpen, a 6-6 tie -- just like in Japan!
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    One more for the Yankees too, so they have a cool 280 with 14 games left.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    The Yankees actually have more HR on the road this year.
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