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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, Mahomes was only 26 years old at the time, cheap, and had shown some potential in the bullpen. Also I am curious what their respective adjusted ERA- figures were... Whoa, Nolasco wins easily. 138 ERA-, Mahomes is at 125 (lower is better). http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=300&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=1961&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=13,d
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I guess this was written before Thursday night's game with Boston, then?
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I will add, even with Urias headed to the pen to limit his innings, the Dodgers also have top prospect Jose De Leon coming on strong at AAA, and they have controlled his innings thus far. I'd guess they'd give him a shot before they would turn to someone like Nolasco.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I was wrong about 3 inning save discretion, at least in the 30-3 game back in 2007 -- the guy indeed got a save: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BAL/BAL200708221.shtml Of course, the score was "only" 14-3 when he came in, so...
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    But if they're going to start someone terrible and hope for the best, Baltimore already has options, looks like they are moving Jimenez to the bullpen in favor of Worley. I'm not as familiar with the Marlins, looks their SP depth chart at MLB.com is indeed only 4 deep. And in any case, if that's the direction they decide to go, it's not like Nolasco would be the only "mostly terrible" guy available, they'd still have some leverage to make the Twins eat most of the salary.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think so. I think Ryan getting dismissed was about the larger, longer-term body of work. Someone really had to go now, and they've already turned over the last GM, the coaching staff, and the manager... Also, don't forget that TR would still be the GM today if he had been willing to have the search for his replacement going on behind him. I don't think there was anything short term that was going to save his job, or now that could bolster Antony's case for it.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    The Dodgers already acquired Bud Norris and just got Brandon McCarthy back too. By my count, that's 4 starters who are better bets than Nolasco at the moment, even without Kershaw or Ryu (and now that Urias is apparently headed to the bullpen). Like a lot of teams, they might take him in August if he is virtually free and they still have a need.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    "Big win" = 0.3 fWAR in 29.2 IP, traded for "not much"? It's a win, but I wouldn't go overboard patting them on the back here, especially before Abad has even been dealt.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    They are co-existing just fine right now, with Plouffe on the DL. Seriously, he's not even scheduled to return until August. I'd say there is a greater than 10% chance that his return is delayed, that he comes back so cold/rusty as to be untradeable, or that one of Sano, Vargas, Park, Mauer, or an outfielder gets injured before then.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    No way, unless Nolasco goes on a tear these last few months (which no one is really going to know at the non-waiver trade deadline, and probably not at the waiver deadline either). He's been so bad these past 2.5 years, and he was so marginal before that (check out what kind of trade return he generated in 2013), he'd be looking at a Bud Norris type $2.5 mil flyer deal as a free agent, at best. And since he's not a free agent, but rather has an expensive guaranteed contract with a team perhaps desperate to reclaim his roster/rotation spot, I'd be surprised if a team was even willing to eat that much of the deal in trade. They'd have the leverage, might as well force the Twins to eat everything but the minimum salary in return for org filler, or just release him.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps the 2016 numbers are still relative to previous year averages? I'm thinking, they must use previous year's averages in early season numbers (otherwise, how would they score plays in the first game of the season?), maybe there are still phasing them down. A rolling "last 162 games" type sample or something? And perhaps by referring to "league" they mean MLB, as opposed to AAA, Japan, etc. Not that UZR has been applied in those places, but it wouldn't surprise me if that was their goal.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Fair enough. But I think it matters what that trade would look like, specifically. Trading Dozier, for example, even for a good prospect, might appease some folks here at Twins Daily, but it almost certainly would not be popular among a larger group of fans, in the clubhouse, with DSP, etc. It would be bold, but I'm not seeing it helping his case. Substitute a different veteran for Dozier, and lower the prospect return accordingly, and it becomes significantly less bold, and I doubt anyone cares all that much. A modest step towards rebuilding/reloading could easily come off as the Twins being "cheap" to many folks too.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Huh? Cameron lists 28 notable players changing teams. That would be pretty active for the next 10 days. If he's predicting that Ricky Nolasco will get traded before the non waiver deadline, he is almost certainly predicting an overly active trade market.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    No batter has ever qualified for the MLB batting title (502 PA) with a K rate higher than 36.2%. Walker is currently at 38.8% in AAA. Even getting a full season of play in MLB might be a historic achievement for Walker, never mind his performance. Even that 36.2% K rate was achieved by a player with a significantly higher walk rate (Chris Carter, at 12% in 2013) than Walker has ever posted (career high 9.9% this year, 7.9% for his minor league career). You have to remove the "qualified" PA threshold to get anybody with both BB and K rates comparable to Walker in MLB history; with only a 200 PA threshold, BB% less than 10, and K% greater than or equal to 34 (Walker was at 34.8% in AA last year), 21 player seasons match. Only 2 of the seasons were above average offensively, and not by much -- Juan Francisco in 2014, and Wily Mo Pena in 2005. 5 of the player seasons were for catchers. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=200&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=1871&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=43375&players=0
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    A more meaningful "challenge" question, to Walker supporters: given that his K% has risen at every level: A: 20.8% A+: 28.2% AA: 34.8% AAA: 38.8% What do you think his K rate will be in MLB? And what kind of batting line do you think that K rate will be able to sustain?
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Why is it challenging to ask that of skeptics? If he had the same batting line, he'd probably have a similar ~123 wRC+ (his approximate career minor league wRC+) and of course that would be "acceptable" in MLB. No one cares about the strikeouts by themselves -- it's just that the strikeouts suggest it will be a lot more difficult for Walker to effectively translate that batting line to MLB.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I didn't mean Milone or Palka. By "something significant for our lesser assets" I meant something like, say, Zimmer and salary relief for Ervin Santana. Hence my "miracle worker" comment -- I don't see it happening. As to the rest of your post, fairly or unfairly, I think Dozier gets more love than Span circa 2012. And we were closer to the beginning of the rebuild there, so it was understandable to trade vets for prospects, especially at an area of org need at the time. We don't really have a big area of organizational need right now, aside from catcher. Dozier for Kyle Zimmer would be seen as rather unnecessary, I think. You could substitute a better/healthier prospect for Zimmer and probably not change the equation much, and of course once the proposed prospect gets too good, we're back to my "miracle worker" comment.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the tip! You are correct, today the Twins "active roster" is last in the AL in ERA: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=al&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=1&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=15,a Looks like we were 13th out of 15 teams in ERA entering play yesterday. We are only second to last in adjusted ERA-, though -- the Angels park factor apparently pushes them below us.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    That doesn't seem right. Just looking at Fangraphs league fielding totals, AL SS last year have cumulative -9.5 UZR, and NL SS last year had (you guessed it) +9.5 UZR, for a MLB total of 0 UZR: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=al&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 That would suggest the average is based on MLB, rather than AL/NL. Which is logical. (To the extent that league matters, more pitchers bat in the NL, but that should already be accounted for in the type and location of their batted balls.)
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    You think if Antony trades Dozier for Kyle Zimmer, he will get the permanent job? I don't get it. Dozier seems to be a favorite of management and fans, and is productive, and Zimmer is far from a sure thing and would enter a rather crowded field of AA SP prospects. (Also, Zimmer has been hurt much of the year, and is set to undergo thoratic outlet surgery now.) Such a trade would get blasted by media and fans ("they're still cheap", "here we go again with rebuilding..."), and possibly other Twins players too. And for pretty good reason -- Dozier is productive and earning his salary, and Zimmer is far from a sure thing and enters a crowded field of AA level SP prospects. I think it would more likely hurt Antony's chances (not to mention, it would be helping a division rival for this and future years). I'd guess that Antony would have to get something significant for our lesser assets (Santana, Milone, Abad, etc.) to help his case much, although I'm under no delusions that anyone is that kind of miracle worker.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Not a whole lot of time left anymore. They pretty much have to have Berrios up by August 1st to reach 15 MLB starts in 2016, and that's assuming he starts every 5th game thereafter -- no injuries, extra rest, etc.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    That would reduce an already suspect sample size significantly. And if they are using existing published stats, those are already scaled to MLB average, so it would take some work to adjust them for AL and NL, no? I can't imagine they do that. The top score in each league should still be the same winners regardless if it is compared to a baseline of MLB or league.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    K rate is actually calculated by dividing by plate appearances, not at bats. So he is at 39%, which is still a career high.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I have to imagine they are being compared to MLB average. Could be most of the above average shortstops are in the NL right now.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    It happens more often than ypu think. The Brewers hired their GM away from the Astros during last season, for example. They can probably do interviews now, and by September most candidates would probably be free to leave their former teams. Waiting until October to even start the process would seriously jeopardize your offseason, I think you would want to avoid that if at all possible. It is a little more important than a managerial hire.
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