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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. I can sort of understand not promoting him earlier -- we had Dozier, Escobar, and Plouffe/Sano to start in the MLB infield -- but I'm not sure why you wouldn't get him reps at all 3 positions. SS/3B is pretty barren in Rochester right now, and clearly there isn't a full-time opening at 2B in MLB right now. So Polanco was pretty much ticketed for a utility type role. I hope to goodness the plan isn't to restrict Polanco to 2B/3B backup, with Santana getting the backup SS reps. With answers developing in the outfield (chiefly Kepler and Grossman, even as a 4th OF type), the plan should be to start looking at dropping Santana from the roster completely.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    So as not to distract from Seth's article on the Nunez-Mejia trade, I'll comment on this here. Absolutely not. It's a nice move, but the absence of this move was not the problem for the Twins. Thus, it shouldn't really matter in finding the next head of baseball ops. Is there even much evidence that TR wouldn't have made this move? Yeah, TR has been a fairly conservative trader, but Nunez was a pretty obvious trade candidate compared to past guys TR didn't deal (i.e. Willingham 2012, Perkins, etc.). And it was a little early but not particularly so (3 games before the deadline) -- I hope TR wouldn't have waited until later than this to start actively looking to deal. Even if we give Antony credit for this as a move that TR wouldn't have necessarily made, again it doesn't matter in relation to the full-time job. This difference from TR, while nice, isn't particularly meaningful compared to the larger differences we need to be looking for.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    BA seems like the Giants system all right. 5 in the top 100, with Mejia as #5 (and #91 overall). A decent jump from being the Giants #10 preseason. MLB.com has them lower (only 2 Giants in the top 100, Mejia at #7 for the Giants). Preseason Sickels had only 3 Giants in his top 175, with a bunch more in the "others to consider" group (although no Mejia -- he was a C+, #12 for the Giants preseason).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    In addition to the differences that ash pointed out, it should be noted that San Francisco is a fairly aggressive trader, which probably inflated our return. It's not necessarily a great guide as to what a generic team might have paid for Nunez, much less for a better player. Mostly that applies to Santana -- I think you'd have to find a team that was both an aggressive trader AND was generous with their spending to get something like this return for him. Unfortunately our often rumored Santana suitor Baltimore seems pretty frugal (and Pittsburgh especially so). Also, while Dozier is worth much more than Nunez, that doesn't mean he'd necessarily fetch a lot more in trade because people might not be willing to pay what he's worth. I guess the appeal of guys like Nunez, while you might have to "overpay" a bit to get them, even an overpay for Nunez costs nowhere near "fair value" (or even a realistic underpay) for a guy like Dozier.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Love the trade, but before we give Antony too much credit, remember that Nunez pretty much had to be traded. He is a utility infielder that isn't good defensively in the infield. Unless you think his first half offense is repeatable, which would be a fireable offense, you pretty much had to deal him now. There was no discretion involved on that side of the transaction. That said, they got a better prospect than I was expecting, so credit to them for timing this well for that.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    With Nunez gone, we also have an open leadoff spot. Hopefully that gives Polanco the edge over Santana...
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    And the Rangers would have rejected that offer. Check out the reliever they got in the deal -- sure, he was a waiver wire pickup by the Braves, but the dude has exploded with a 16.8 K/9 so far this year, and he's controllable for a full 6 years, the first several at league minimum salaries. I think he was the centerpiece of the deal, not just some random lefty. Also, an Adam Brett Walker who plays average middle infield defense is a much better prospect than Adam Brett Walker!
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree it is good to have an open 40-man spot. You seem to be ignoring the fact that we have 3 already, without even counting the 40-man guys we would be trading. The idea that we'll somehow need to add 5+ new guys to the 40-man roster in the next week (assuming 2 guys traded, in addition to the 3 open spots) is far-fetched, to say the least. That said, I don't want to see fringe guys over useful prospects either. But in the unlikely scenario where we had to deal a SP right now, we could easily add a guy like Albers to the 40-man roster to make one start, and drop him as soon as needed thereafter.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you mean 20%, not 20 innings. His 2014-2015 increase still beats that, at 32%, but it's not that egregious. His first full pro season (2013) saw a 72% increase over his college/pro innings from 2012. He had another 23% increase from 2013-2014.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Every player they trade opens up a 40-man spot too. It is highly doubtful that our deadline trades would require 3 additional 40-man spots, so using one for a few days on Albers or whomever wouldn't hurt.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you're reading too much into this. Dean could absolutely come up to make one start if necessary, so could Albers etc. We have 3 open spots on the 40-man roster. Given who we're talking about, the odds of a SP trade before this deadline are fairly low. And if it does happen, odds are it happens on deadline day Monday and won't have any effect on this turn through the rotation. It would be rather silly to start moving pieces around expecting a trade earlier than that.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you are missing some levels with your innings counts. Here are Duffey's total innings (MLB + minors), by year: 2013: 121 2014: 149.1 2015: 196 2016 so far: 105.1 I think the simpler explanation is more likely -- he's just pitched poorly this year. Pitchers who consistently struggle often give the impression they are worn down.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    For those wondering: 16. Berrios 47. Jay 61. Gordon 99. Polanco
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Just tuning in... is Kepler unavailable to pinch hit for Santana?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I got what you were laying down! One of the few subtle jokes I have ever picked up on around here...
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    How about one trade, with a PTBNL that gets named sometime later? That sorta feels like two separate transactions...
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know if any amount of shopping or proactive-ness would make a "hot" July trade market exist for Santana. How many older mid-rotation pitchers with future commitments get moved in July, much less for a top return? Antony is no miracle worker.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    If the other team was taking most of Santana's salary, I'd really have to think about a Gonsalves-equivalent return. While the money saved wouldn't necessarily get you another Ervin in this winter's FA market, it could easily get you one or two short-term upside gambles to fill the rotation spot in the short term. And if those gambles don't work out, hopefully adding another near-ready SP to the current mix of Gonsalves, Stewart, Jorge, and Jay would yield a potential MLB replacement in the near future. (Obviously depends on the particular prospect we are getting too -- not all "Gonsalves equivalents" would really be equivalent to Gonsalves, if that makes sense. )
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Sadly, probably no. I feel like the Twins will not be a common trade topic until we're right up against the deadline...
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Mauer threads are a lot like Mauer himself at this point. You might forget about them for a few days, but they're always there, and always will be there, just easy to overlook.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I just thank my lucky stars and stripes I'm a fan of baseball rather than politics!
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I totally agree, BUT -- I don't think the market is "hot" for Santana right now, or any of the Twins trade assets. I think they are generally viewed as spare assets that can be acquired cheaply, if the "hot" market for greater talents doesn't bear fruit.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    No prob. I've certainly done worse myself! Heck, the only reason I noticed it is because I know you're among the quality posters of content around here, otherwise I probably wouldn't have even responded. This thread is actually pretty good. If it's not a fully accurate portrayal of a standard TD thread, at the very least, we cleaned up our act for Mr. Goin quite nicely.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    The thing is, all of that goes into every GM decision. If TR committed $49 million to Nolasco unreasonably, that would be grounds for immediate termination. So when discussing a GM and his moves, it's not really a useful standard to fall back on reasonableness. Comments can sound brutal at times, but I wouldn't let it bug you too much. It's primarily just an unfortunate shorthand that some folks have acquired to discuss such topics on the internet. Generally no matter the words used (short of violating guidelines, of course), I just try to fit the opinion into the same spectrum of judging the GM's moves. And this board does an excellent job of not letting those words drive the conversation, which is why I am wary of spending too much time being critical of them!
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty much. Even a minor leaguer that stays in the same pro organization for many years, what we think of as a stable baseball career, that guy is moving every year, sometimes multiple times a year, at someone else's discretion. Changing MLB teams isn't necessarily that big of a deal.
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