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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    In a market where SP are moving as cheaply as Odorizzi and Garcia, and other names are still available, I don't think anyone is touching Hughes at 2/26 for now.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, that trade makes the least sense for the Yankees. In an offseason where they couldn't upgrade their pitching, why would they swap their top SP prospect for an injured one, and let Archer go to another team in the same deal?
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for sharing! Great article.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Could be. Arcia apparently got $1.7 mil there: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/oswaldo-arcia-signs-ham-fighters-japan-npb.html Of course, Arcia was coming off a big AAA performance (albeit in the PCL) that Vargas has never really achieved anywhere. And Arcia was a free agent with a bit more leverage -- if Vargas goes overseas right now, his MLB org would take a cut too. And I don't know the Japanese schedule, is it perhaps too late in their offseason to get a big guarantee? It might be a comparable bet, money-wise, for Vargas to try hanging on for as much of the MLB minimum salary he can get this year ($545k). If he can get 4 months service time this year, he could be arbitration eligible next winter too. And even if he doesn't perform, he might have a comparable/better opportunity to go to Asia just after the 2018 season, perhaps as a free agent?
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Welcome back, Jack! What are you up to these days?
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Redirected from another thread... Hey, at least you're not closely watching NFL preseason games! (I hope!) FWIW, Bard wasn't the only Angel pitcher to get shelled yesterday: Obviously Bard has less of a margin for error than some guys. Should be interesting to follow.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Seems kind of disingenuous, after Dozier and his agent publicly prioritized free agency when he signed his first extension with us. If Dozier hasn't given any indications he would sign another extension below his FA market value, why would he expect the Twins to approach him about doing so?
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, Bard was referring to 2016 when he first learned his spin rate, before Falvey and Levine came aboard.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Ortiz was better in the minors than Vargas, and Ortiz was among the best hitters in MLB in the second half of 2002. As for your list, Willingham was still a catcher at that point in his career, with only 57 career MLB PAs. Encarnacion was a 3B, Cuddyer was a 3B, and Bautista was a utility player. Even Cruz was nominally an outfielder. And not all of those guys got notably better. Trumbo has been a worse hitter after age 26. Morrison had the big year at age 29 but is only marginally better post-26 (111 OPS+) than he was pre-27 (108 OPS+).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. Just like how we traded Arcia to the Rays for basically nothing (maybe the waiver fee?). Not that we would really fear facing him in the division , but no sense giving a free lotto ticket to (or just improving the depth of) a direct rival, if we can help it.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    And more context, 2017 was the worst DH hitting season since Fangraphs records of that split begin in 2002. 95 wRC+. The only other season worse than 104 was 2013 at 100. Pujols was #2 in DH PA, Trumbo was #6, and Beltran #7 -- and all 3 were awful at the plate. And overall DH stats can more easily get skewed by a few bad performers, because there are only half has many DH spots (15) as every other position in MLB (30). And I would guess most teams look to replace or augment DH's who post a mark around 100 or below and haven't shown much potential for notably better performance. Collectively they may not improve much on that figure, but they try, when possible. (Contracts obviously complicate their efforts at times.)
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd guess he's a roughly equal hitter from both sides of the plate -- you just see a lot of year-to-year fluctuation because the samples are so small. The problem is, he's not particularly good from either side. His career splits aren't a great sample size either, but he is at 108 wRC+ vs. LHP, 96 vs. RHP. Neither figure is good enough for a DH/1B/bench bat. He'd have to sustain a 120-130 figure to really have any value.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Vargas hasn't really shown these flashes. Since A-ball, he has pretty much hovered around .200 ISO and a K rate climbing to 30%. With his profile, that's pretty much a below league average player overall. Professional evaluators shouldn't have to give that guy 500 MLB PA in a season to know what they have. The Twins never gave that kind of PA to Parmelee either. (The Twins did give plenty of PA to Ortiz, but that didn't work out for other reasons.)
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Vargas is almost 28 years old. The Twins had 4 option years for him. If anything, the decision point is late (from his perspective).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    And keep in mind this is the same Angels org that rostered their last two Rule 5 picks: Deolis Guerra (former Twin and minor league FA) and Taylor Featherston (.162 AVG, current Twins minor league FA). All while trying to compete too. I'm not claiming Bard is a lock to make their 2018 squad, but given the circumstances, I'd give him greater odds than the average Rule 5 pick.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Angels lost 3 of their top bullpen contributors from 2017 (Petit, Norris, and Hernandez), and their only acquisition (aside from Bard) appears to be the 5.56 ERA of Jim Johnson. A couple of those 8 RP active in 2017 were August waiver pickups (with little organizational seniority advantage over Bard) and/or mediocre performers. Blake Wood looks like a 32 year old Tonkin clone, for example. If the Angels go with a 6 man rotation, it is because Otani is pulling double duty as a DH, so presumably it would come at the expense of a bench position player rather than a reliever. Also, with a 10 day DL, it is less important to have players with options on your roster for flexibility.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Bump! This promo has been confirmed for 2018 again. Redemptions will start March 27 through the "T-Mobile Tuesdays" app.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I think there is a pretty good chance the Angels keep Bard -- they have kept several Rule 5 the last few years. That doesn't mean he will contribute much, but I would be mildly surprised if he winds up back in Rochester this year.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Generally correct. Players with less than 3 years service time, added to the 40-man between August 15 and the Rule 5 draft, can't be outrighted off the 40-man roster between the World Series up until 20 days before opening day. But they can be "removed" by release or trade. Or even by 60-day DL once pitchers and catchers report, like Burdi. No different than Kinley in that regard -- he couldn't be outrighted off the 40-man either (or optioned, once the season began). And of course, outrighting is only possible if a player clears waivers, and Bard and Burdi would have both likely been claimed anyway. Given that we signed 6 MLB free agents (including Sanchez) and still kept Kinley, I don't think this was really part of their criteria for leaving Burdi and Bard unprotected.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I remember hearing about Bard's spin rate last spring, via Gonsalves: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/25111-depue-gonsalves-on-spin-rates-haley-on-his-role/
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    He actually entered the game with runners on base, and the first batter hit into a DP. So he only faced 8 batters. By Gameday's messed up spring training pitch counting, that's 3 pitches for each of 4 Ks, and 1 pitch for each of 4 balls in play, for a total of 16.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Gameday doesn't accurately track pitch counts in spring training.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Not quite that simple. Kinley would have to clear waivers too, before we could make this deal. If the Twins see enough from him this spring to want to keep him in the org, it seems possible another team would put in a claim. Hence these kinds of Rule 5 trades are quite rare.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Meyer had shoulder surgery in September, so he's out for the season. They just put him on the 60-day DL. Nolasco is still a free agent after the Angels declined his option. I wonder if he's going to that special MLBPA camp for unsigned players...
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    We wouldn't be allowed to give him another QO regardless -- the new CBA prohibits QO's to players who have received them before. Which is why I think Lynn or Cobb could be more receptive to a 1 year deal than past FAs, although obviously they are still trying to get something better.
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