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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. 50% of your 40% is Kyle Gibson, and I wouldn't count him as a long-term drafting & developing success yet. And Gonsalves and Romero are still "pie-in-the-sky" as you like to say. (Romero in particular is coming off a career-high 125 IP, I'd be mildly surprised if he's starting anywhere in September.)
  2. "Very necessary" as a warm body, not necessarily to get any meaningful playing time. LaMarre could do that, just like JB Shuck was available in Rochester for that purpose last year, and before that, Mastroianni, Logan Schafer, etc.
  3. What was Lynn pitching for last season? How did Hector Santiago do, pitching for his next contract last season? (Not comparing Lynn to Santiago as pitchers, just noting that I don't see "pitching for his next contract" as a meaningful factor. Guys generally pitch to the best of their health and ability regardless.)
  4. Morrison hasn't played an inning out there in over 2 years, so I'm guessing he's an "emergency outfielder" at best. Assuming Vargas doesn't make the team, there's not really any need to spot him in the OF anyway,
  5. That might make a better banner in Target Field than "wild card game participant."
  6. How many innings do you expect to need a 6th outfielder, especially when you have multiple CF in your top 5? I'd guess Adrianza could also see some action out there depending on circumstance. But really, the Twins are starting with enough to depth to weather 2 simultaneous injuries. NRI Ryan LaMarre has seen MLB roster time each of the last 3 seasons, so I suspect he's the plan if we have a 40-man spot available and just need another outfielder on the bench. Wade will need a 40-man spot next winter anyway, and he's already 24 years old, so he's a potential option if we need a fill-in starting OF for a stretch in the second half, like Granite last year.
  7. I think the poster is referring to published reports like these: "Gardenhire: Francisco Liriano has Tigers rotation spot if he’s healthy" https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2018/03/11/francisco-liriano-daniel-norris-wage-battle-tigers-rotation-spot/32838951/ Although there haven't been any such reports on Nolasco and the Royals -- the Royals have a pretty set top 5 right now, although even before throwing a pitch, Nolasco has a strong case for being #6 on their SP depth chart, with the potential to move up in case of injury.
  8. Agreed. What's even weirder is that we managed to sign/acquire 7 MLB players this offseason, and didn't need Kinley's 40-man roster spot (or Vargas's) to add any of them. Obviously we were helped by the slow market, but I don't think we ever expected to return Kinley before mid-March either. And if we didn't like Burdi, it seems like Bard or Chargois would have been realistic possibilities to keep too, even without the benefit of the 60-day DL. Not a huge deal, obviously marginal gains/losses compared to our main offseason moves, but worth noting among obsessive baseball fans. Of course, Kinley could still make the team, if we carry 12 pitchers and Hughes is our 5th SP / long reliever. You are correct. Duffey actually has 2 option years remaining -- he only spent 7 days on optional assignment in 2015, so he didn't use one there. His only option year used so far was in 2016.
  9. Is there a farm where old pitchers can go, like my parents told me about for old dogs? Where they can run around and happily do pitcher's fielding practice forever?
  10. Maybe it was an uncomfortable bus...
  11. Actually an interesting deal structure for Arrieta -- he can opt out after 2 years, but if he does so, the Phillies can exercise a 2/40 extension.
  12. Actually an interesting deal structure for Arrieta -- he can opt out after 2 years, but if he does so, the Phillies can exercise a 2/40 extension.
  13. FWIW, Kinley would have to clear waivers (albeit with Rule 5 restrictions attached) before the Twins could trade for him and remove Rule 5 restrictions. If he shows enough promise to be worth a trade, another team might put in a claim. Hence these kind of Rule 5 trades are fairly rare. Of course, if he does clear waivers, the Marlins might be cheap enough to deal him for financial reasons (they'd have to pay $50k to take him back).
  14. I know there are some Lynn skeptics here -- would any have preferred Arrieta? Just signed for 3 years, $75 mil with Philadelphia.
  15. This is incorrect. Hughes can't be sent to Rochester without his consent, regardless of whether anyone would claim him on waivers. The choices for the Twins will be roster him, DL him, convince him to go to AAA, convince him to retire, or release him.
  16. Hughes' contract isn't part of my evaluation, but what they decide do with him is. Adding a couple veteran SP is a hair less attractive if they're not prepared to move on from Hughes, and Mejia gets sent to AAA unnecessarily. Not a huge deal, but could take it from an A to an A- in my book. But we'll see how it plays out.
  17. This is fair. I had them at C+/B- for the offseason after Odorizzi, and B after Morrison, and this definitely pushes them higher. I feel like I should stop short of a solid A until they Hughes decision is cleared up at the end of spring training. It's a tricky situation with the potential to nudge the grade either way.
  18. Good point. It has already been referenced how Bill Smith once had a good offseason of short term deals too. I think the current offseason/team/FO should turn out better, of course, but the question remains, how much so.
  19. 95. 3rd round, but our 4th pick. 75 is the Competitive Balance round, which is protected from forfeiture.
  20. Hmmmm... Hughes might benefit the Twins more by pitching for the Royals...
  21. Yes, and Scott Cooper. Still, that doesn't mean you trade him for 1 month of a reliever. Not only that -- the 1990 Red Sox were in 1st place by 6.5 games when they acquired Andersen on August 30th. They were a few days away from starting a 6-14 September swoon, I guess, but looking at the game logs, Andersen actually blew 3 of the 4 leads of 3 runs or less he inherited that month. (The one he preserved was a full 3 runs.) And only once did he preserve a tie that led to an eventual Boston victory. Also, they were swept 4-0 out of the playoffs. Andersen actually picked up the loss in Game 1. Pitched the final inning of the elimination game too, perhaps for symbolic purposes.
  22. FWIW, I thought the thread title was unclear at first too. I thought, "what columnist has the initials CC? Or why is CC Sabathia reporting this?" Not to mention, is it a command like "Twins, go sign" or was an unnecessary verb included -- "Twins (go) sign"? Sabathia is probably not much of a writer, after all...
  23. Escobar! He even caught for one inning last year (and the pitcher was Chris Gimenez, no less).
  24. Another look at the Bagwell deal -- Bagwell was ranked 33rd by Baseball America at the time, and having a great season at AA and was a 4th rounder just the year before, so it wasn't just hype or helium. They traded him for 1 month of reliever Larry Andersen, who promptly left as a free agent. As the following article puts it, "Even going by what we knew at the time, this was an incredibly lopsided deal." https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/8/1/16066426/jeff-bagwell-astros-red-sox-hall-of-fame-larry-andersen-trade
  25. As an aside, how do you evaluate something like the Smoltz for Alexander trade, where it seems fairly likely that Smoltz would not have turned out as well with the Tigers? Detroit's primary fault might be that they weren't developing Smoltz (or any pitcher) particularly well at the time. According to this article, they didn't even have a pitching coach at Smoltz's affiliate in 1987: https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/did-a-10-000-dispute-cost-the-tigers-hall-of-famer-john-smoltz-072115
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