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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    A 9.5 WAR season will do that. Trout got $1 mil pre-arb too.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, this is only Betts' first year of arb.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Also better than any of Ervin's 12 previous MLB seasons.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fair, and it echoes my concerns with the Dozier deal. Maybe Buxton has more elite potential than Dozier, though? Obviously you'd want some FA years if at all possible, but if those are off the table, you'd have to consider the less-desirable alternatives.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    The $30 mil figure was just an approximation (although be aware that Buxton will be hitting arbitration 7 years after Jones, and 4 years after Cain. Pollock also missed a whole season in there too.). Feel free to adjust it downward if you like, the main point was -- should we be willing to do a 4-year deal for Buxton, like we did for Dozier, if he's unwilling to sign away any FA years?
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fair. Buxton is better than Pillar, but he's also behind Mookie Betts. There is some risk on his side of being under-whelmed by arbitration, which might make a guaranteed buyout a bit more appealing.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Buxton will only have 3 years of arbitration before free agency (assuming he doesn't get sent down again ). Although obviously an extension signed now would also include one pre-arb season, like Dozier's deal, so it would cover 4 years total, at minimum.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, just using hypothetical numbers -- Buxton could get a guaranteed ~$30 mil over the next 4 years, avoiding the risk of making less than that in exchange for forgoing the potential to make more. He could also get more of that money up front rather than waiting several years. That all has some value to both the team and to the player, although admittedly not nearly as much as option years would have to the team, or a larger guaranteed "megadeal" would have to the player.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Responding to myself... The Phillies do indeed have a low payroll this year, relative to their historical levels, but they were one of the fastest movers on the market this winter in landing Carlos Santana, Tommy Hunter, and Pat Neshek. They have a lot of promising players breaking in all over their roster. I suspect they could still use a pitcher, and indeed they have been rumored in talks with the remaining SP, particularly Arrieta and Lynn. (And they spent $17 mil on Jeremy Hellickson last winter, so they're clearly not averse to some investment there.) But they have enough ready young SP, they could always add a Jaime Garcia type midseason. The White Sox could definitely use a CF but the FA market wasn't very strong at that position -- basically just Cain, who got a market deal from the Brewers. They probably should have gone after Gomez. But like Philly, they've got a lot of promising players breaking in right now, especially in the rotation.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Good point. Herrera only signed for a $160k bonus. I suspect Inciarte did no better. Kiermaier was a 31st round pick. Interestingly, both Herrera and Inciarte were later left unprotected in Rule 5 too. And none of those 3 ever ranked in a top 100 prospect list, per B-Ref. Buxton, of course, got $6 mil, and we are all quite familiar with his rankings over the years.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    What if Buxton goes the Dozier route, and says no FA years, but will take something like 4/30 -- is that worth it, for us?
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Absolutely true, although it would be riskier for Buxton than other position players -- an injury that allows him to play but reduces his speed, even temporarily, would put a significant dent in his value. As opposed to a player you could just shift down the defensive spectrum or even park at DH awhile.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    With the same 2-3 team option years as Inciarte/Herrera, that would be an incredible deal for the Twins. But would you do something like 5/35, without the team option years? That would give us 1 FA season, and let Buxton hit the market entering his age-29 season.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    DeJong is only guaranteed 6/26, though. Buxton would beat that guarantee easily, and could probably choose to forgo the team option years and still come to an agreement with the Twins.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think the 5/30 starting point is necessarily insulting to Buxton. (I'd guess you would want to start a little higher than that for inflation/pedigree, but it's in the ballpark.) Buxton still has a lot of question marks that involve risk for both the team AND the player. He's been very streaky, still has a high K-rate, and his style of play (aggressive defense and baserunning) is more susceptible to injury than others. He might prefer to bet on himself and his most recent streak (2nd half .246 isolated power), but I could also see a case where he might be willing to hedge against that for some security too. A 5 year deal (ignoring potential options) could still let him hit the open market entering his age-29 season.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Just perusing Cot's, 12 teams have record opening day payrolls for 2018 right now, including the Twins. Another 11 have top ~4 highest payroll in their franchise history (i.e. KCR). Another 5 are basically coming off record payrolls within the last 3 years (OAK, TEX, DET, NYY, and LAD), and while they have all cut payroll for 2018, they are not currently "low" by market expectations (except perhaps due to the luxury tax for NYY/LAD). That basically leaves the Phillies and the White Sox. I guess both could stand to spend more in 2018 given their market, but both have spent pretty recently and also have well-respected baseball operations departments, so they get some benefit of the doubt if they don't want to spend quite yet coming off 66/67 win seasons.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    This understates it. Considering that incentives and midseason acquisitions will also count against this cap, 9 teams (those with $26 mil or less of cap space) might completely lose all flexibility just by adding one more player around the qualifying offer salary of $17.4 mil. That's going to have a big effect on the market. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRghSG2xROOkgctuzj56pUSP6zCxUUQ1i7LND0jnficQ0TPtIY8OhNl3AN_StqMvBCHnO_qOXKZeTbE/pubhtml
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Clark and the MLBPA just filed a grievance against 4 teams for not spending revenue-sharing money: Rays, Pirates, Athletics, and Marlins. According to Cot's, the Rays have a record-high opening day payroll this year ($77 mil, up from $70 mil last year). The Pirates are only down about 10% ($95 mil to $85 mil). They've been over $90 mil the previous 3 seasons, but are coming off seasons of 78 wins (2016) and 75 wins (2017). The A's are coming off a franchise-record 3 year payroll from 2015-2017, and last-place finishes in each season. They are down about 28%. Despite their fire sale, the Marlins are just shy of $90 mil payroll too. Easily the 3rd highest payroll in franchise history, after only 2017 and 2012. Historically, none of these teams consistently sign even mid-level FA talent (the Marlins might be closest, but even that has come in bunches), so they're not likely having a serious effect on players going unsigned. Maybe the availability of Gerrit Cole had an effect on the SP market earlier, but a small number of quality players getting traded isn't really new to the offseason market either. If this is an indicator of how Clark and the MLBPA will articulate their collusion case, it's not a good sign.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you can, IF the player is willing. Just about any underperforming pitcher could theoretically try "rest and rehab" for something, to justify it.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Correct. And Meche had already put off shoulder surgery about as long as possible, so his choice actually wasn't too surprising -- he would have likely needed surgery and rehab to collect that final year salary, and he probably would have been looking at a minimum salary / nonguaranted deal coming back the next year too. So it was a pretty natural spot to retire, given the circumstances.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I could see him retiring if he needed another surgery. But in the meantime, I think he would go the Anibal Sanchez route first and ask to go to the minors before he would even think about leaving money on the table to retire. He might also just tell the Twins to release him so he can find another team to give him that opportunity. Unlike Nishioka and Park, Hughes presumably doesn't have any incentive to end his MLB contract to go to Asia.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    He's probably not an ace now, but prior to last season, Cueto had a six season run with a 2.73 ERA, 145 ERA+ over 166 starts, good for 27 bWAR or 4.5 per season. That's comparable or better than the pitchers you mention.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    That would be surprising -- leaving $16.4 mil on the table? Would that be an MLB record? Even Gil Meche only walked away from $12 mil, and that was primarily just to avoid surgery and rehab in the final year of his deal. Hughes has already had the surgery and rehab -- twice. EDIT: I guess Ryne Sandberg's first retirement had him forfeiting $16 mil in 1994, which is obviously a lot more in present-day dollars. But I believe Sandberg had some personal issues at the time, and actually un-retired a year and a half later.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    "He ain't heavy, he's my fifth starter..." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=biUcvPK82kA
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, using last year's top 30 list, the Twins had five 2016 draftees on that too: https://www.mlb.com/news/where-twins-top-prospects-start-2017-season/c-222075834 https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?team_ID=MIN&year_ID=2016&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_year
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