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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    No, it looks like this was the only FSN+ game scheduled. There are a handful of others on regular FSN, and one on ESPN: https://www.springtrainingonline.com/2018-minnesota-twins-broadcast-schedule-posted/
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    With as little as we are hearing about Lynn and Cobb, I have to imagine they will be considering one year deals. Not ideal for them, but at least they could try the market again next winter without draft pick compensation attached. Although I suppose they could let this play out a bit more, to see what SP might go down with injury this spring.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    If they DL'ed Chargois, they would be able to send him down for 30 days rehab without burning an option, if that was a concern.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I feel like our interest in Lynn at this point might be like our interest in Ervin back in March 2014, when we offered him 3/33 which he declined for a one year deal elsewhere. Although maybe we could be a destination on a one year deal too? Our contention chances are much better than they were in 2014.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    If he can't pitch this season, he could go on the 60-day DL. And just about anyone could claim him and do the same.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Because he was added to the 40-man between August 15th and the Rule 5 draft, with less than 3 years service time, Slegers can't be outrighted until 20 days before spring training, even if he clears waivers. https://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3520 Not that I think the Twins would do it, even if he didn't have this restriction.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Nope. League BABIP is virtually unchanged. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=np&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2008&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    But more important than TV, the Twins return to WCCO radio tonight!
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    The game is also on MLB.TV. 2017 subscriptions appear to be active through February so you can still use it for watching tonight without renewing for 2018 yet (a lot of people wait for the T-Mobile offer or the 50% discounts after a month or so).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    FSN+ is correct. If you get Fox Sports North through your cable/satellite provider, you should be able to log in and watch through the Fox Sports Go site/app.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I hope he doesn't repeat that achievement in 2018!
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    The point is, the smaller the sample, the less likely it becomes. And 5 isn't a very large sample. If I had to bet, I would bet on improvement from that group -- but I wouldn't bet much. I certainly wouldn't count on it enough to project our team offense in 2020 would be significantly better than it was in 2017 -- which would mean more than offsetting the loss/decline of Dozier too.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think the league switch had much to do with it. Correia's numbers here were pretty much identical to his NL numbers, for instance. This just wasn't a very good/healthy group of pitchers to begin with, and we caught virtually all of them on the wrong side of 30.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I suspect that would be the hold-up with bringing him to Minnesota, even if KC was willing to deal. We're definitely in "looking for a bargain" territory now, if we weren't before.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    By some measures, but far from all. Odorizzi's 5.02 RA9 last year (ERA including unearned runs) would have only ranked 4th among our 2017 starters (behind Ervin, Berrios, and Mejia). And not very far ahead of Colon (5.18) or Gibson (5.30). And if you look at peripherals via FIP, Odorizzi would fall behind Gibson and even Colon too, into a 6th place tie with Hughes at 5.43, ahead of only Santiago among our regular 2017 starters.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    True, but at the same time, I don't think we should let the last ~15 years of Twins history skew our perspective. Great MLB teams don't automatically beat good ones, especially in single games or short series. I understand you're not advocating "punting" but there is no reason we can't compete with the "big boys" today -- maybe not for 100 regular season wins, but definitely for a spot in the postseason and a chance of advancement. I think we have to aim to build a 85-90 game winner rather than a .500 team hoping for some breaks, and we should prioritize single-game and short series effectiveness rather than just 162 game survival (i.e. the difference between one 4 WAR starting pitcher, and four 1 WAR starting pitchers).
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I think this is a mis-use of peak/aging data. That peak age is an average over thousands of players -- it is not very likely that a subset of 5 guys will match it with any useful precision. Imagine if the average marriage age of your school's alumni was 27, and you were looking at a group of 5 of your friends. Very unlikely you will get 5 weddings in one year! You might not even get one. And even looking at an age range -- say, age 26-28 is "peak" -- a single season is a small enough sample, that it's quite possible you won't be able to distinguish peak talent from normal statistical variation. Age 25 could look just as good as age 28, etc. The Twins had the 4th best run scoring offense in the AL last year, and 4th in wRC+ too. It would be unwise to plan on them being even better 3 years from now, to any meaningful degree. They need better pitching (only 9th in run allowed per game, 11th in FIP-), and they need it now or they risk wasting more good offensive performances.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Berardino: "reportedly refusing to go beyond five years at around $20 million per season" https://www.twincities.com/2018/02/13/starting-nine-answering-twins-biggest-questions-as-spring-training-begins/amp/
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Buxton shouldn't hurt, but note that Odorizzi has already been pitching in front of Kiermaier for virtually his entire MLB career. It's one reason metrics seem to downgrade him, he has had great defensive support.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    FYI, they didn't release Dickerson, they DFA'd him. Most likely to force a trade.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, at his absolute peak, Sanchez was worth 6.3 bWAR (although his next best season was only 3.8). 5 out of his 6 postseason starts were very good for Detroit, as he helped them to WS and CS appearances. Of course, all of this was back in 2012-2013, when Johan Santana was still tossing no-hitters.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    It's tricky, because Sanchez is guaranteed roughly ~$500k. His signing was so close to the Odorizzi trade, that I don't think the two pitchers are seen as mutually exclusive. Even if Sanchez gets cut before opening day and doesn't get the extra $2 mil, he's probably going to consume a fair number of spring training innings which may make it a little harder to sort the depth guys behind him. (And if he makes the team, he's not really "depth" like a pitcher in reserve -- he's actually a front-line guy.)
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Colon was actually replacement level for us -- I wouldn't be so confident that Slegers and a bunch of AA guys in their MLB debuts could notably exceed that. Not to mention Duffey and return-from-surgery May. And you had Sanchez in your list the first time, and removed him this time. Assuming he is 6 or 7 in our current depth chart, you might be talking about ~15 starts from those "bottom end pitchers" below him -- how much overall staff improvement can we project from that? I'd rather have upgraded ~60 of the regular rotation starts.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    The pitchfork mob can be proportionally underwhelming too!
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Chief said deeper too, no? Also if the added depth isn't "better", what good is it to be deeper? Gonsalves and Romero were already available last year, the Twins just chose not to use them. Maybe they will be more ready later this season, but their presence isn't much of a credit to the current front office. And It's not altogether clear that Sanchez is going to be a better option than those other guys. Last 3 seasons by bWAR: 0.1, -1.2, -0.8. And we may not have the luxury of keeping him in reserve as a midseason reinforcement, or for a spot start -- his contract apparently calls for us to put him on the opening day roster or release him.
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