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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I still don't get what you mean. When the offseason started, MLBTR (for example) predicted the Cubs to land Darvish with a 6/160 contract. If the market unfolds where the Cubs don't want to offer that much, that creates an opportunity for another team to be aggressive and fill that void. No one else chose (or were unable) to be particularly aggressive with that opportunity, but that doesn't mean it's invalid to speculate how they could have, and how the market might have turned out as a result of that decision -- does the player sign elsewhere? Do the Cubs increase their offer in response? But maybe I just don't understand what you mean?
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    The Rays just signed a reliever for $2.5 mil guaranteed. Small potatoes, of course, but perhaps evidence that cutting payroll isn't such an immediate imperative for them. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/rays-sign-sergio-romo.html
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    And a $110 mil outlay won Darvish's services back in 2011 too! Coincidence? I think so!
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    We got 'em! Minor league deal for the 33 year old OF/PH. The hot stove is burning up! https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/twins-sign-chris-heisey.html
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Toronto is trying to compete too. If they fail, maybe Stroman could be a deadline target, but if he is healthy and effective, he won't be cheap or easy to acquire.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the TD writers like them in context as prospects, but I'm not sure they've advocated for their immediate promotion to the majors. Perhaps they argued for a faster promotion to AAA last year, particularly for Gonsalves, but in absence of that I don't think they'd recommend essentially skipping AAA altogether based on spring training performance.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't know where else to put this, but it turns out the Cubs deal for Darvish is mildly front-loaded: $19 mil and $18 mil due in years 5 and 6, respectively, versus $25 mil in year 1. And the full no-trade becomes only a partial no-trade after 4 years, which gives them some potential to move him in the last 2 years too. (Even as "dead weight" that could be useful, like the Dodgers trade earlier this winter where they effectively traded 1 year of salary obligations for the same obligations spread over 2 years.) https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/cubs-to-sign-yu-darvish.html
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know what you are getting at. Were the Twins not allowed to offer 5/135, because the Cubs offer was less than expected? I think it goes without saying that a different offer by the Twins would have altered the resulting market. That's what the market is, by definition -- the sum of all the offers and contracts. It's not some unmovable entity. If the Twins offer more, maybe Darvish takes it, or maybe the Cubs counter and he takes that, and Arrieta, Lynn, and Cobb get more too. All possible outcomes, but I don't see how they invalidate my argument?
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure if that is really true. Their only April off days are the first week and around the Puerto Rico trip. They don't have one in May until May 9th either. That's 9 straight days, then 19 straight days. And even if you skip the 5th starter once or twice, you're not doing it to get more starts for a vet like Ervin Santana like we did last year. You are increasing the workload on guys like Berrios, Mejia, Duffey, etc. I'd count on needing 5 starters the whole time.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    deGrom is going to be at least as costly in trade as Archer, right? And Gausman and especially Odorizzi don't really help at the top of the rotation. Cobb might not either, but I'm not sure we have another choice at this point.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Did you find it and read it? Because we seem to be on very different wavelengths in this thread, so I wouldn't judge my overall argument based on whatever it is you think I am saying here. I don't think Levine is a lying liar, or their offer was purely for show, or anything else like that, if that is what you think. I just don't think their offer was nearly as effective as it could have been, even within reasonable parameters of a midmarket team (although obviously the Twins are applying more restrictive parameters). That's not unreasonable, is it?
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Whoa! By late, I meant presumably final. It was almost spring training. If they had offered 5/100 back in December with the intention of negotiating upward, that's one thing. But as a last best offer, it definitely feels like a Hail Mary. I am not sure if I have impugned their motives at all. I agree that they had a value line and stuck to it. I just think it was never really compatible with calling the player a priority. Getting a bargain along their value line was the priority, and the player was more of a hope/prayer kind of thing. Looking back, it seems Levine meant priority in a "we'll look at him first" way, but it is disappointing because that should really go without saying, and the opportunity to play at the top of the market seemed ripe.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    My premise is simply that 5/135, or 6/150, or whatever, would have been a more aggressive offer, while still being reasonable, with a much more competitive chance (but no guarantee) of landing the player. How is that a "hallucination"? What do you think the "actual free agent market" is, if not looking at player production, projections, and contracts to arrive at valuations? Because that's how TD's estimate was born, and MLBTR's, and ZiPS', etc. And they are just that -- estimates -- but they give us a rough idea of what is reasonable. It's not like I had to suggest a 10/250 contract to illustrate my point. Teams will disagree, and markets will produce somewhat different outcomes, but for the purposes of this discussion, I think they are reasonable terms to use.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Buying a young player for $60-100 mil cash is pretty much fantasy. The Rays are in a much worse market than the Phils, so they are pretty cost-conscious. Not to the point of selling players, but they can probably be persuaded to deal for more prospects. Still probably not cheap, if one values Lewis around $50 mil, etc.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not even sure that would do it. The Phillies probably expect to be leaving their rebuild very soon, as evidenced by the Carlos Santana signing, and with Nola leading the way. Exchanging Nola for Lewis etc., even if it were to make sense by some on-paper valuations, would set them back at least a few years.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    The money would be going to the team, not the player. Charlie Finley tried it with Oakland in the 1970's and was mostly blocked by the commissioner. It would take a special kind of cheap owner in a cheap market to even attempt anything like that. Even then, it would probably be in the form of player salary -- say, if the Phillies had Pujols and wanted to get out of his contract, the Twins could take on his whole salary and get a good prospect/player in return. But even that is pretty limited/rare. Keep in mind top prospects can basically be worth $50+ mil all be themselves, just in future potential. A guy like Nola, already established as one of MLB's top starters, is probably worth a lot more than that and isn't available for cash.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Commissioner's office has to approve cash amounts more than $1 mil, I think. It's a formality for small amounts of cash, but I'm pretty sure $60-100 mil would be invalidated. There is no modern precedent for anything like that.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I've posted some elaborate explanations in other threads, but basically, even with rather favorable market conditions, the Twins best/final offer only had about a 5-10% chance of success.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    In what ways was the "priority" statement sincere? Making a late (and presumably final) offer of fewer years and ~30% less guaranteed money than every common public forecast is clearly a prioritization of a bargain, not a player. I think it was an ill-advised word choice it and of itself.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Your own admission at least has plugged-in sources, so it's probably "whole assed" speculation rather than the "half assed" speculation common at TD. The Twins offering the same guarantee as the Cubs but with a larger AAV is pretty implausible. Especially given the collusion accusation climate, it's virtually impossible that wouldn't have leaked. The Twins are welcome to correct the record on this front, of course. I don't think there is any official restriction on disclosing a rejected offer once a player signs elsewhere (or if there is, it could be done unofficially quite easily too). But until they do so, I'm not going to give them credit as if their offer was secretly 25% larger than any reported number. (I've actually been giving them credit for +10% but frankly maybe even that is too much -- +5% would be the same AAV as the Cubs deal and might be the more likely figure.)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Here's Darvish's MLB IP ranks, outside of his single TJ injury/surgery: 2012: 42nd (1st MLB season, they skipped him 3 times) 2013: 20th 2014 1st half: 51st (they skipped him 2 times) 2016 2nd half: 36th 2017: 24th And his durability in Japan has also been referenced as evidence that he might have too much "mileage" on his arm already.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    His two partial seasons are related to the TJ surgery too. If a player goes down with an elbow problem in August, has surgery the following March following unsuccessful rest/rehab, then returns 15-16 months later as is customary, you don't count that as 3 separate durability concerns, do you?
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, until after Turner, it wasn't even permitted to trade a draft pick with less than 1 year experience. I did add the qualifier that your concern is likely a hold up, even if we were offering Lewis. It's quite possible that the Rays want Lewis but don't see him carrying the same value as other top prospects traded recently and are asking for more. Possibly why there has apparently been very little movement on this front. (Or we just didn't offer Lewis, which would likely be a non-starter of a proposal too.)
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    By your own admission, they had little hope of him accepting that offer. How do we even know the Archer offer was any different? A football team can't just point to a Hail Mary play as evidence their game plan properly leverages throwing deep downfield.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    C'mon Nick, folding his standard TJ recovery time into the average to dismiss his durability? By that criteria, Cobb averages 11 starts over the last 3 seasons, 15 over the last 4, and Lynn averages only 21 over the last 3 too.
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