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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    We're not making up the Twins reported offer, which had no real chance of landing Darvish in Minnesota. I don't claim to guarantee that a larger offer would have landed Darvish, but there were larger reasonable offers that would have greatly improved our chances. Which I thought was our goal, given we were told acquiring Darvish was a priority.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, Sanchez only threw 105 innings last year (84 as a SP), so there is a sample size issue there too. His K% was a tick below league average in 2016. And I don't think that level of K rate means too much by itself. Michael Tonkin had a significantly better than league average K rate, even among relievers....
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Hey, we're paying Pineda $2 mil to do just that!
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    League K rate has been rising every year recently. In fact, Sanchez had exactly the MLB average K% in 2017.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Even more likely then that he might expect to start the year in AAA. Although, don't we already have 5-6 starters for AAA? Maybe we shouldn't want this guy down there if he's not even good enough to make our MLB staff...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, perhaps we could send him to the minors to open the season. Since it is a "split" contract, it sounds like they have already agreed upon a $500k salary if he is sent to the minors, and a $2.5 mil salary if he makes MLB. Sanchez did consent to go to AAA last year for Detroit. So while he will be sucking up a 40-man spot (and perhaps just sucking in general), we may be able to avoid the "opt out" drama that usually comes with veterans on minor league deals at the end of spring training.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think the Twins would agree, at this point. Enns might be the closest, but it sure seems like they would want a longer look at him.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I was going to say "too late" but Worley does have an opt out in his minor league deal with the Reds -- so he could theoretically be our opening day starter again! https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/reds-sign-vance-worley.html
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Might just be his last chance, period. How did his previous "chance to put himself in position to make money" go? That is, 2017? A half decent year could have netted him $16 mil for 2018 (team option), although he did get a $5 mil buyout just for trying.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Last update I saw on Trevor May said "He's not expected to be ready for the start of the season and could return in May." The 60-day DL would make him ineligible until June 1st or so. Still, I'd guess it's the likeliest next move. https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/twins-trevor-may-throwing-from-120-feet/
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Have you looked at the 40-man lately? This isn't quite true anymore, virtually all of the spots are probably guys we want to keep around at least a little longer. There are no more Boshers, Turleys, etc. Most of the fringe guys are very recent additions.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, I suppose so. May would need to miss the first 60 days of the season, which was possibly the case anyway. He could rehab during that time in the minors, I suppose.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    If Sanchez is taking Pineda's 40-man spot, I am not sure there is another signing coming. The next guy on the 40-man bubble would probably be Rule 5'er Kinley, or Enns or Chargois. I don't see them making those kind of cuts very quickly.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    "Impactful" could be in a negative direction too!
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Okay, take that list and remove Ervin for the first month or two, and probably even Trevor May too. (And keep in mind, Trevor May hasn't started a game in over 2 years.) And Duffey hasn't started a game in over a year, and only threw 71 innings last year. And of course Hughes is a huge wildcard. Our season ending SP situation last year was shaky, and to lose Colon, have an injury to Ervin, and do nothing else? That's borderline irresponsible for a team with our offense (and even our mild pen upgrades) and contention expectations. This isn't 2013 anymore.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fair, but if you have to do 4/60 to land Cobb, maybe you'd rather do 1/10 (with a team option) for Garcia, especially if you believe in prospects arriving sooner rather than later.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    MLBTR's FA tracker, filtered by unsigned SP (although they still list Vargas): https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018-mlb-free-agent-tracker/positions-9__status-0
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Not that I wanted him, but Wade Miley is off the board too.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. Once the season starts, you can't count on any external replacements being available until at least June, and they might be Bartolo-level cooked. Or late July for another Garcia type.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Nothing for 2020. The 2019 option vests with 200 IP, otherwise it is a team option.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Only 30% of his starts last year were with the Yankees. You might as well as assert that 2 below average months mean that a player can't be average for a whole season. Since you brought up RAA, Garcia is +18 for his career. You note that his 2015 was quite good at +24, but even taking that out, -6 runs over the other 144 starts is pretty much the definition of average. I really don't get your insistence on immediately throwing guys into the fire with virtually zero AAA experience (and not even elite prospects at that). Because Brad Radke did it for a 99 loss team 23 years ago? If Garcia is as bad as you say he is, he can easily be replaced by prospects during the course of a 1 year deal. If the prospects struggle, you may not have the luxury of finding a veteran replacement during the season exactly when you want, at exactly your desired price. Not to mention the risks of pushing the prospects, if you give them too many challenges at once, it is probably not good for their overall development -- you don't just push every promising 12 year old to med school like Doogie Howser. And of course the heightened injury risk -- Fernando Romero's performance was showing obvious signs of fatigue after about 110 IP last year, and this is a guy you want to skip AAA?
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually Garcia was not "replacement level" last year -- he was average, which has value and could be an improvement.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    For as much value as everyone says Archer has, no one has ponied up for him yet. Not that that means Tampa will give him up for less, but I wouldn't be surprised if remained in Tampa at least until the deadline, if not into next year -- there isn't much urgency to deal him unless someone finally offers that elite prospect package.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Berardino: "reportedly refusing to go beyond five years at around $20 million per season" https://www.twincities.com/2018/02/13/starting-nine-answering-twins-biggest-questions-as-spring-training-begins/
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think trading Kepler for perhaps the best SP on the market (even if a lot of that is peripherals and potential) is "giving up on him." Also, as a corner OF, Kepler is already at a disadvantage compared to SP Archer. He may be able to best Archer in WAR but I am not sure that would make him the "better player", his production might be easier to replace (at least in part), perhaps even by platooning.
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