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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Unless you think the Twins were out of the race, or that they were going to win playoff spot handily, it was a pretty suspect move, pending results from the acquired prospects.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorry, I read "he was a free agent this off season and no one seems interested in signing him" as referring to other teams, but I understand now you were referring to other posters. But just because people preferred other SP on the market this winter doesn't mean the Twins were right to deal him in a pennant race without an immediate replacement. Nobody really prioritized a Kintzler reunion either, but that doesn't mean the Twins were right to sell him in a pennant race too.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Garcia signed this winter before either of our new SP were acquired, so I'd be careful about using his signing date as evidence of the FO's acumen.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I think I have to reserve some judgement on the 2nd Garcia trade to see if Enns and Littell actually contribute. Right now, to me it still seemed like we were a little too aggressive about selling based on a hot streak by a very beatable KC team.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    As much as I enjoy the numbers, I think MLB development/transitions are still often more art than science. I'm all for giving guys spot starts like Jorge last summer, and definitely promoting them late in the season or anytime you have clinched or been eliminated. But I don't think guys universally need (or would necessarily respond well to) repeated cycles of MLB promotions in a short time period. And likewise, counting on those guys to collectively fill a full rotation spot too early would also seem to be a bit of an abdication of responsibility and judgement on the part of management. A lot of people here get upset when management lets someone go without a full trial, but that's a huge part of their job -- if all they were supposed to do was give every player a couple hundred innings or a thousand PAs, well, anyone could do that. Similarly, while we might see 3-4 SP prospects and want to sort through them in the 5th starter spot, part of the FO's job is to ascertain distinctions and differences between them and judge their preparation and readiness individually, sometimes even without the benefit of MLB appearances.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    It wasn't their plan to win the playoff spot by 5 games. They got lucky in that regard, the universe bailed them out for selling Garcia and Kintzler when they did. I won't quibble with the rest of your post. I think my B grade for the offseason is hardly a tough grade, though. Nothing wrong with a B. And there was a reasonable criteria to deliver an A -- for example, they didn't add a single player this winter who projects for 2 WAR (although admittedly Odorizzi and Morrison are right up against that number by ZiPS). Of course, the offseason is just one assignment/project and their grade for the whole season can go up or down depending on how some of these moves turn out.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Didn't mean 3-5 stars. Most of that was just to replace players who left without ready internal replacements. I wouldn't apply that standard to every team, but with a playoff team returning a young improving core, I think it is fair to expect them to fill those spots. Remember we traded our closer at the deadline last year, and then let his replacement leave too. And the pen already needed reinforcement before that. So they needed at least 2 relievers just to offset losses, and when those two are as old as Rodney and Duke, a 3rd was probably warranted. Admittedly Reed was a pretty nice 3rd guy to pick up! Likewise, the rotation was already suspect, and lost the Santiago/Colon starts without a ready internal replacement. They absolutely needed to add at least 1 healthy / dependable MLB guy, and probably a flyer too. That's Odorizzi and Sanchez. To me, that was maybe a C+ offseason. Adding Morrison was a nice surprise on top of that, to show they aren't taking the offense for granted, and after that I would probably give them a B.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, bring SP prospects up to potentially contribute as bullpen guys, etc. That's not unusual. But that's not what I was responding to, which was literally starting a guy, then sending him down, and repeating that every turn through the rotation. Heck, if I was a teammate, I am not sure I would endorse that either -- if you think the pitcher is ready, let him pitch. If not, leave him in AAA, and get someone else who is ready.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Another way to look at it: what were expectations for the offseason? Personally, given where we finished last season, I thought adding 2-3 relievers and 1-2 SP was about the minimum expectation. That's basically what they did, meeting that minimum expectation before the Morrison signing. In other words: if they had done less than signing Reed, or trading or Odorizzi, they'd get a failing grade, in my book.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know. It would be quite a departure. Even if you tell them the plan, the players might feel like they are getting jerked around. They would like days in the majors, but I don't think they would see the alternative as being stuck in AAA, they would see it as getting a chance to stay in MLB. It is also somewhat moot. I don't know how much development happens in a game here and a game there. I like the numbers side of the game, but even I feel that development and adjustment is often more art than science. And the Twins current SP prospects don't even have any meaningful AAA experience yet -- by the time that happens, there might be some clear separation between them as far as who is ready for a MLB trial.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Keep in mind, they are human beings too. They'd want to be rewarded for good starts, and not shunted off to the minor leagues again. Also, what we see as simple roster transactions are very much everyday life decisions for them -- where they live in Rochester or Minneapolis, their transportation, their meals, their paychecks, etc.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Hope, but it's not always so easy. That rotation would have a number of veterans whose leash would be fairly long, not unlike the 5.4+ ERA guys of years past. They're not getting bounced for a couple bad starts, or maybe not even a bad month or two. Plus, they will have to make up for Ervin's missed time and possible regression. I would expect some improvement overall, but given the pitchers we have added, probably modest (even with Lynn). Maybe instead of 19-24 range for ERA/FIP/innings, they could be 15-20 range.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Second time requesting waivers doesn't have any additional ramifications. Only the second time outrighting him off the 40-man roster, which hasn't happened yet -- so the next time will be Chargois' first.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Looking closer at Morrison's projections -- as you would expect, both ZiPS and Steamer have him losing power and walks from 2017. Still, they both project him to roughly match his pre-2017 career highs in both BB% and ISO, so they are not unreasonable in that regard. Even so, after his 130 wRC+ in 2017, ZiPS still looks pretty good with a 120 wRC+ -- but it also projects him for a .288 BABIP, when his career mark is .273 and his 2017 season was only .268. Steamer gives him a .278 BABIP and the result is just a 108 wRC+. Grossman projects at 104/107 by Steamer/ZiPS, and Vargas 100/101. (And Grossman is coming off a 102 and Vargas a 98.)
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, those looking at WAR -- Morrison mostly played 1B last year (119 starts), with just a bit of DH (17 starts). If those reverse, he will lose about 3-4 runs just through the positional adjustment (Rpos at B-Ref). Plus losing another 1 run from fielding, since he won't be playing the field much. So even if he repeats his 2017 offensive performance (and health), it may only be worth 3.1 bWAR / 2.8 fWAR (rather than 3.6 / 3.3) in the context of the 2018 Twins. (Assuming Mauer takes the lion's share of 1B reps.) Still pretty good for such a modest commitment, of course. But it just changes the baseline a bit.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I am not sure about that. Remember Suzuki had a vesting option that was not a team option -- it either vested or he was a FA. I haven't seen Morrison's referred to as anything but a vesting option either, so we will see.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Love the trivia, thanks! Is this just regular season games only, or did you include postseason?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    The 2019 option vests with 600 PA this season.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Vargas is out of options, so he has leverage. The Twins would either need to keep him in MLB or expose him to waivers, in which case he should get another MLB job. The guys we've usually sold overseas had options remaining, so the choice was Rochester or overseas ball. Not so for Vargas anymore.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Vargas should be virtually free by the end of spring training, either by DFA or waivers. I think teams will just wait for that, rather than bother to include him in a larger trade now. (Of course, if the Twins were willing to throw him in a larger deal now for virtually nothing, then another team might take him.)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    This is mostly correct. Walks are counted as 4 pitches, strikeouts are 3, any balls in play are 1.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    What does 100% mean? If the velocity isn't back, I don't see how you could expect much from Hughes.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Potentially, yes. In actuality? Seems unlikely that all happens, both in terms of health and performance.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Twins rotation was 19th in ERA last year, 23rd in FIP, 24th in innings pitched. And keep in mind, whatever we might gain from Lynn, Odorizzi, etc. could be partially offset by a loss from Ervin, both through missed time and likely regression.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. MLB DL means the player is still in the majors, so no option is used. By the same token, Trevor May still has an option remaining, after spending all of 2017 on the DL.
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