Otto von Ballpark

This is obviously true -- although it's still talking about value relative to position. I think there is still a subjective interpretation of "better player" that doesn't include that, or at least de-emphasizes it (maybe just for defense?). FanGraphs Splits Leaderboard for the win! For Mauer's entire catching career (2004-2013): Catchers 1st half: .714 OPS Catchers 2nd half: .714 OPS Non-catchers first half: .757 OPS Non-catchers 2nd half: .763 OPS So overall catcher batting performance was no worse in the 2nd half relative to the 1st, and non-catchers only got an extra .002 of AVG and .004 of SLG in the 2nd half.

So it's back-loaded, which neutralizes the opt-out quite a bit. If he opts out after 5 years, the Jays only had to pay him $83 mil. And the escalators are only for years 6 & 7 (after the opt out), based on his performance in years 4 & 5. Not bad for the team either -- the better he is in years 4-5, the more incentive the Jays would want to give him to forgo the opt-out for years 6-7 anyway.

The deadline for protecting minor leaguers from the Rule 5 draft is coming up fast (Friday November 19). Here are 5 of the "intriguing" names from Seth's fantastic 21 Twins Names to Know for the 2021 Rule 5 Draft. If you have to leave one of these guys unprotected, who do you pick?

BREAKING: According to sources, the Twins have reserved a local picnic shelter in anticipation of a reunion with Nelson Cruz. Evites will be sent out soon. As is customary for the Twins, the event will be BYOB.

Syndergaard was quoted as saying, "Well, East coast girls are hip, I really dig those styles they wear." But, he added (several verses later), "the West coast has the sunshine, and the girls all get so tanned." Read into that what you will!

Postseason, through 1987 World Series Game 5, Puckett was actually quite close to Mauer's overall postseason line: Player G Rslt PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HBP GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip aLI WPA acLI cWPA RE24 Puckett 10 6-4 46 44 4 9 1 1 1 4 1 5 1 0 1 0 .205 .239 .341 .580 .211 0.88 0.138 33.29 -0.14% -1.57 Mauer 10 0-10 44 40 1 11 1 0 0 1 4 7 0 1 0 0 .275 .341 .300 .641 .333 1.03 -0.222 15.47 -2.65% -1.48 Still a positive WPA for Puckett, I'd guess due to the XBH and RBI advantage? Also the BAbip suggests some bad luck for Puck? Of course, from 1987 game 6 onward... Player G Rslt PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip aLI WPA acLI cWPA RE24 Puckett 14 10-4 63 53 12 21 2 1 4 12 7 4 12 0 1 2 1 1 2 0 .396 .452 .698 1.150 .436 1.33 0.972 102.16 38.73% 6.46 cWPA% means Puckett basically won 38.6% of a championship by himself in his postseason career, despite the slow start. On a per-PA basis, that's behind Speaker, Gehrig, Freese, and Berkman from the Baseball-Reference career postseason top 10 list, but ahead of Mantle, Rose, Springer, Jackson, and Ortiz.

Puckett's 8 year peak (1986-1993) has more total offense (Rbat + Rbaser + Rdp) by about 2.25 runs per year, but Mauer's 8-year peak (2006-2013) has the higher rate per 600 PA by 3.6 runs. (Although that rate advantage would drop to 2.4 if you only looked at Puckett's 7 year peak, which is still more PAs than Mauer's 8.) This is close! Of course, there's also defense (hard to quantify), and postseason...

The Mauer case brought up his relative standing among catchers, which is important to his value. But that might be different than "best player" in absolute terms -- better players are often steered toward center field, rather than allowed to catch. Looking at offense -- Rbat (hitting) + Rbaser (baserunning) + Rdp (double play avoidance): Puckett career 255 runs above average in 7831 PA Mauer career 242 runs above average in 7960 PA That's razor-thin but does give Puckett a career edge of about 1.3 runs per 600 PA. Mauer does have the best single-season value (2009), although Puckett holds spots 2-4. On a per-600 PA basis, Mauer's 2006 would jump up to 3rd.

Brandon Belt was the only player to accept the qualifying offer.

Astros re-sign Verlander. 1 year at $25 mil plus a $25 mil player option for a 2nd year. I guess he must have looked pretty good at his workout the other day.

Every player falls apart eventually. And good players often fall apart while they're still under a good contract -- that's just how the system generally works, and teams simply try to position themselves so those "fall apart" seasons/ages don't happen until closer to the end of the contract. Lorenzo Cain and Charlie Blackmon started their currents contracts the season they turned 32 years old, and they still performed well for at least a season or two beyond that. Buxton is still only 27 years old, so he has 5 more full seasons until he turns 33.

I'm just saying, assuming Stroman is comparable to Berrios (fair), and IF the Twins can land Stroman on a similar contract: Having a Starting Pitcher (Stroman) PLUS Martin PLUS Woods-Richardson is greater than having a Starting Pitcher (Berrios) alone. Of course, that's a big "IF" -- if they can land Stroman on a similar contract. Especially hard to see now, if these Buxton trade reports are true... I was a lot more optimistic a few hours ago!

There's still time for the Twins to land a guy like Stroman and come out ahead here (Stroman + Martin + Woods-Richardson).

Still plenty of time for them to screw it up. They have similar SP needs as the Twins, so I am sure they see some value in ensuring that they don’t get shut out in that market. (And a one-year overpay is better than a multi-year overpay.)

If the Angels sign another QO player (and they are in on some), then it will effectively be just a 3rd round pick that they are forfeiting for Syndergaard. (Which would be the same penalty that a revenue receiving team like the Twins would have had?) Looks like their 3rd rounder might fall around #85, with a value of ~$2.5 mil per Fangraphs estimates. The Angels 2nd round may fall around #50 would would be $5.9 mil value, so yeah, it wouldn't be great to give that up for just Syndergaard on a 1-year deal. But if they sign Story or Semien or something, it might make more sense.

I could see him getting a little more in free agency, but probably not significantly more. He'd be a couple years younger than Gausman, Ray, or Stroman but still seems firmly in that class (barring any crazy breakout in 2022, of course). Edit to add: put another way, I think this was close enough that he had to take it. Probably not worth the risk of waiting a year just to get 10% more or whatever.

But would they sign one to a 6 year deal, after they played out their final arbitration season? That's effectively what this deal is, a 6-year contract signed a year early. (Obviously some more risk for the team to sign such a deal a year early, but perhaps not a ton, as the next year should be the most predictable/stable for Berrios. And of course there is some risk in waiting too.)

That said, I would have expected a Syndergaard option too, since he barely pitched at all in 2021. I guess the lack of an option gives the Angels no incentive to protect his arm much in 2022, beyond getting the most they can out of him that season. Also, let's be honest: there are always decent odds that the Angels will be sellers next July. So they could still get someone else's 2nd or 3rd round draftee back for Syndergaard.

As I understand, the Angels are still pursuing other qualifying-offer free agents, and if they sign one of those, then it's effectively only a 3rd round pick that they give up for Syndergaard.

Here you go!

He took his talents to South Beach... of Lake Ontario! (Full disclosure: Toronto is technically on the north side of Lake Ontario.) Joke attempt #2: It's All About the Latitude!

Angels reportedly working on a one-year deal with Syndergaard, ahead of his Wednesday afternoon deadline to accept or decline the qualifying offer from the Mets. Edit to clarify: I was referring to the Los Angeles Angels baseball team, not any kind of heavenly angels. Although I understand they used to collaborate in the outfield.

Berrios was estimated to receive about $11 mil in arbitration this winter anyway. So you could look at it as a 6/120 extension beyond that, for a total of 7/131.

And once again, a very special thanks to our first debate participants, who both agreed to be unmasked now. Debater A (leave minor leaguers out of MLBPA): @bean5302 Debater B (include minor leaguers in MLBPA): @PseudoSABR We literally couldn't have done this without them!